Texas Instruments: Still room to grow.

Texas Instruments is a global leader in analog and embedded semiconductors, powering everything from industrial automation and electric vehicles to medical devices and personal electronics. With a product portfolio of over 80.000 chips and a customer base of nearly 100.000 worldwide, the company combines manufacturing scale, long product lifecycles, and strong engineering relationships to create durable value. From its strategic focus on high-growth end markets to its expanding internal production capacity and shift toward direct customer relationships, Texas Instruments is building for the long term. The question is: Does this analog giant belong in your portfolio?

This is not a financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and I only do these posts in order to do my own analysis and elaborate about my decisions, especially for my copiers and followers. If you consider investing in any of the ideas I present, you should do your own research or contact a professional financial advisor, as all investing comes with a risk of losing money. You are also more than welcome to copy me.

For full disclosure, I should mention that at the time of writing this analysis, I do not own shares in Texas Instruments or in any of their direct competitors. If you want to copy the portfolio or viewing the stocks I currently own, you can find instructions on how to do so here. If you want to buy shares or fractional shares in Texas Instruments, you can do so through eToro. eToro is a highly user-friendly platform that allows you to get started on investing with as little as $50.

The Business

Texas Instruments (TI), founded in 1951 and headquartered in Dallas, Texas, is a global semiconductor company specializing in analog integrated circuits and embedded processors. The company designs and manufactures semiconductors used by approximately 100.000 customers worldwide, serving diverse end markets including industrial, automotive, personal electronics, communications equipment, enterprise systems, and others. TI operates in more than 30 countries and offers a portfolio of over 80.000 analog and embedded processing products. Analog semiconductors are used in virtually all electronic devices to manage power and interface with real-world inputs such as sound, temperature, motion, or pressure. They amplify, condition, or convert these signals into digital data and are essential for ensuring devices operate reliably and efficiently. Embedded processing products - such as microcontrollers and processors - act as the dedicated “brains” of electronic systems. These chips perform specific tasks and bring intelligence to a wide range of applications, from consumer gadgets to industrial automation. They are found in nearly all electronic devices that require sensing, control, or automation. TI reports its business in three segments: Analog, which accounted for approximately 78 percent of revenue in 2024; Embedded Processing, which contributed 16 percent; and Other, which includes DLP technology, calculators, and application-specific integrated circuits. Texas Instruments has built its competitive moat on four durable advantages that are central to its strategy and business model. The first is manufacturing and technology leadership. TI owns and operates its own fabrication and assembly/test facilities, including advanced 300mm analog wafer fabs. This structure enables lower manufacturing costs, greater control over the supply chain, and resilience in the face of geopolitical and logistical disruptions. The second advantage is its broad and diversified product portfolio, which supports a wide variety of applications and reduces dependency on any single product or customer. The third is the reach of its market channels. TI combines a global sales force with a robust direct-to-customer platform, offering extensive customer access and early insight into evolving demand. Finally, the company benefits from the longevity and diversity of its customer relationships and product deployments. Many of its chips remain in use for more than a decade and are reused across product generations, resulting in recurring revenue and strong returns on R&D. These advantages are reinforced by TI’s disciplined approach to capital allocation and its long-term strategic focus. The company consistently invests in R&D and manufacturing capacity to strengthen its position while also returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Across all operations, TI maintains a strong emphasis on efficiency, aiming to generate more output for every dollar invested.

Management

Haviv Ilan serves as the CEO of Texas Instruments, a role he assumed on April 1, 2023, after more than two decades with the company. He brings extensive experience in the semiconductor industry and has held a wide range of leadership positions since joining Texas Instruments in 1999. Before joining TI, he worked at Butterfly, a wireless startup in Israel that was later acquired by the company. Throughout his 24-year tenure at TI, Haviv Ilan has led various parts of the business, including product lines, sales operations, and broader organizational functions. Most recently, he served as Chief Operating Officer, where he played a central role in shaping the company’s strategy, overseeing operations, and driving long-term investments in manufacturing and technology. His deep understanding of TI’s business model and end markets is the result of years of hands-on leadership across product, customer, and geographic dimensions. He holds bachelor's and master’s degrees in electrical engineering from Tel Aviv University, as well as an MBA from Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management. When he was named CEO, he was described as an exceptional leader with a strong track record of execution, a commitment to innovation, and a deep passion for the company’s long-term success. Although he is still relatively new in the role of CEO, I feel confident in his leadership. He was handpicked by his predecessor, Rich Templeton, a highly respected figure who continues to serve as Chairman of the Board. Haviv Ilan’s long-standing experience within TI, combined with a leadership transition that appears both thoughtful and strategic, provides a solid foundation.

The Numbers

The first number we will look into is the return on invested capital, also known as ROIC. We want to see a 10-year history, with all numbers exceeding 10% in each year. Texas Instruments has achieved a ROIC above 10% in every year over the past decade, above 20% in nine of those years, and above 30% in seven - an impressive record that signals the company’s strength as a quality compounder. However, it’s worth noting that ROIC has declined over the past two years, reaching its lowest point in the decade in 2024. While this might typically raise concerns, there’s a clear explanation. Texas Instruments has significantly increased capital expenditures in recent years, particularly to expand its manufacturing capabilities, including major investments in 300-millimeter wafer production. These investments require substantial upfront spending, which weighs on ROIC in the short term before the financial returns are realized. Management expects these investments to support higher ROIC in the coming years, with improvements anticipated by 2027. Given this context, I’m not concerned about the recent dip. In fact, I find it reassuring that management has highlighted ROIC as a priority. In a recent earnings call, they noted that TI’s ROIC ranks in the 68th percentile compared to companies in the S&P 500 - another sign that the company remains focused on long-term capital efficiency, which is something I greatly appreciate.

The next numbers are the book value + dividend. In my old format this was known as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used to use in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it moving forward. As you are used to see the numbers in percentage, I have decided to share both the numbers and the percentage growth year over year. To put it simply, equity is the part of the company that belongs to its shareholders – like the portion of a house you truly own after paying off part of the mortgage. Growing equity over time means the company is becoming more valuable for its owners. So, when we track book value plus dividends, we’re essentially looking at how much value is being built for shareholders year after year. There have been a few years with declines, but Texas Instruments has grown its equity every year since 2020, which is encouraging. Management has emphasized that they are focused on increasing equity by allocating capital to areas with strong long-term return potential, such as R&D, manufacturing capacity, and strategic customer support. Given their long-term mindset and disciplined capital allocation, I expect equity will continue to grow in the coming years - especially as recent investments begin to contribute more meaningfully to financial performance.

Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins offer a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. It is not surprising that Texas Instruments has achieved positive free cash flow in every year over the past decade. However, both free cash flow and the levered free cash flow margin have declined in the past two years. This decline is primarily due to a significant increase in capital expenditures as the company invests heavily in expanding its manufacturing capabilities - especially around 300-millimeter wafer production. Capital spending is expected to remain elevated through 2025 and 2026, which will continue to weigh on near-term free cash flow but is expected to strengthen cash generation over the long run. Management has frequently stated that the best metric to evaluate the company’s performance over time is the growth of free cash flow per share, as it ultimately drives long-term shareholder value. This is a philosophy I strongly agree with, and I find it reassuring when companies are explicit about prioritizing sustainable free cash flow generation. Texas Instruments is also committed to returning all free cash flow to shareholders over time through a combination of dividends and share repurchases. Their dividend policy aims to appeal to a broad base of investors, with a clear emphasis on sustainability and long-term growth. The company has increased its dividend for 21 consecutive years, with compound annual growth rates of 10% over the past five years and 16% over the past ten. On the buyback side, the goal is to accretively capture future free cash flow for long-term shareholders. Since 2004, Texas Instruments has reduced its share count by 47%, which amplifies the benefit of rising free cash flow over time. While the current free cash flow yield is at its lowest point in a decade, I don’t believe it reflects the underlying value of the business given the temporary impact of increased capital expenditures. We’ll revisit valuation later in the analysis, but for now, it’s important to recognize that TI’s free cash flow profile is intentionally being shaped for long-term benefit - and that should reward shareholders in the years ahead.

Debt

Another important aspect to consider is the level of debt. It is crucial to determine whether a business carries manageable debt - specifically, whether it could be repaid within a period of three years. To assess this, I divide total long-term debt by earnings. For Texas Instruments, this calculation results in a debt-to-earnings ratio of 2,71 years. Since this is below my three-year threshold, debt is not a concern for me. It's also worth noting that Texas Instruments has consistently maintained a debt-to-earnings ratio below 3 over the past decade, which demonstrates prudent financial management. Management has also emphasized the importance of maintaining a strong cash position while carefully managing debt levels, stating that this positions the company for sustainable growth. Based on both the historical track record and the company's current approach, I don’t expect debt to become a concern in the future.

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Risks

Competition is a risk for Texas Instruments. Texas Instruments is facing an intensifying competitive landscape in the analog and embedded semiconductor markets. Although the company benefits from a broad product portfolio, strong customer relationships, and manufacturing scale, it operates in a highly fragmented industry with numerous competitors, ranging from large diversified chipmakers to smaller niche suppliers. This competition is global and includes both well-established players and aggressive new entrants, particularly from Asia. A major factor behind this increased pressure is China’s strategic push to develop a self-sufficient domestic semiconductor industry. Through subsidies, policy support, and targeted investment, Chinese firms are gaining momentum and becoming more credible alternatives for local customers. TI management has acknowledged that Chinese customers are increasingly open to choosing domestic suppliers, which could impact TI’s ability to grow or maintain market share in that critical geography. Another challenge stems from pricing and product development pressures. In industry downturns - such as the current one - competition tends to intensify, with players becoming more aggressive in their efforts to win market share, often by lowering prices. If Texas Instruments is unable to keep pace with cost reductions, pricing pressure, or technological advancements, it risks losing design wins, particularly in high-volume or commoditized segments. Management has noted that competitors are "more hungry to take share," underscoring the importance of maintaining TI’s competitive edge. In addition, ongoing consolidation among competitors could lead to larger, better-resourced rivals with greater R&D capabilities and pricing power. This is particularly relevant in analog semiconductors, where both scale and product breadth are important advantages.

The cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry is another risk for Texas Instruments. This sector is known for periods of rapid expansion followed by sharp contractions, driven primarily by shifts in customer demand, inventory levels, and capacity utilization. These semiconductor cycles - commonly referred to as upturns and downturns - can create volatility in revenue, margins, and cash flow, even for well-managed companies like Texas Instruments. TI serves a wide range of end markets, including industrial, automotive, and personal electronics. While this diversification helps smooth out some fluctuations, the company remains exposed to broader industry trends. For example, a slowdown in demand in just one key sector - or even within a specific product category - can have a noticeable impact on overall financial results. This is especially true during periods of economic uncertainty, when customers across multiple sectors may delay purchases, reduce capital spending, or work down inventory levels rather than place new orders. The capital-intensive nature of semiconductor manufacturing further compounds this risk. Building new capacity requires significant time and investment, while demand can shift quickly. During upturns, strong demand and limited capacity may lead to tight supply, pricing power, and high margins. But in downturns, excess inventory and weaker demand can result in margin compression, underutilized factories, and potential write-downs on unsold inventory. If TI overestimates demand and builds too much inventory, or if its product mix does not align with customer needs, it risks holding excess or obsolete inventory, which can hurt profitability. Additionally, Texas Instruments experiences some degree of seasonality, with revenue typically weaker in the first and fourth quarters. While this is less dramatic than full industry cycles, it can still contribute to short-term unpredictability.

The complex and evolving legal and regulatory landscape in which Texas Instruments operates is another risk. As a global semiconductor company with manufacturing and sales operations across more than 30 countries, TI is subject to a wide array of laws, rules, and regulations at the international, national, and local levels. The regulatory risk is compounded by the fact that these laws and policies are not static - they are frequently revised, expanded, or reinterpreted in ways that can have unintended consequences for companies like Texas Instruments. In particular, trade restrictions, export controls, and national security-related regulations are areas of heightened sensitivity and frequent change, especially given the increasing geopolitical tensions between the United States and countries like China. For Texas Instruments, which generates a significant portion of its revenue from Asia and maintains manufacturing and sales operations across multiple regions, a policy shift in just one jurisdiction can have an outsized impact. For example, if the U.S. government imposes new export controls on certain semiconductor technologies deemed sensitive for national security reasons, TI may be prohibited from selling those products to specific Chinese firms - even long-standing customers. This could lead to a sudden and unplanned loss of business, forcing the company to find alternative markets or reconfigure its supply chain and product roadmap. Similarly, if China retaliates with its own set of restrictions—either targeting U.S. firms or favoring domestic suppliers through policy incentives or procurement preferences - TI could face diminished market access or reduced competitiveness in one of the world’s most important semiconductor markets. In some cases, companies are also required to apply for export licenses, which can be delayed or denied, introducing further uncertainty and operational friction. The broader concern is that these types of regulatory shifts are often politically driven and can occur with little notice, making it difficult for companies to plan or respond in time. Moreover, these changes may not only affect direct sales but also supply chains, partner relationships, and the movement of critical equipment and intellectual property across borders.

Reasons to invest

The increasing focus on the industrial and automotive sectors is a key reason to invest in Texas Instruments. These two markets together made up approximately 70% of the company’s revenue in 2024, up from 42% in 2013. This strategic shift reflects TI’s deliberate move toward markets that offer secular growth trends, higher chip content per application, and long product lifecycles - all of which support more stable and sustainable revenue growth over time. In both sectors, there is a growing need for analog and embedded technologies that make devices smarter, more efficient, and more reliable. In the automotive market, for example, the rise of advanced driver assistance systems, in-cabin monitoring, high-efficiency lighting, and battery management systems is significantly increasing the number of semiconductors used per vehicle. These trends are not limited to electric vehicles - they apply broadly across all types, including hybrids and internal combustion engines. The industrial market presents an equally promising growth opportunity. TI serves a wide range of industrial sectors, including factory automation, medical devices, energy infrastructure, building automation, and robotics. Many of these areas are undergoing major transformations as companies invest in smarter, more connected systems. A good example is the smart factory, where increased use of sensors, motor drives, edge processors, and power management solutions can result in tens of thousands of dollars in chip content per installation. TI’s broad portfolio is well equipped to meet these demands, providing connectivity, real-time processing, and efficient power usage across long-lived equipment platforms. Another advantage is that Texas Instruments has a very diverse and stable customer base in the industrial market. No single customer dominates - TI’s top 100 industrial customers account for only about 30% of the segment’s revenue. Many of these customers purchase thousands of different products from TI, which helps spread risk and reduces dependency on any one relationship. In addition, the chips TI supplies to industrial applications tend to remain in use for many years, sometimes even decades. This results in steady, recurring revenue that tends to hold up well even during broader economic downturns.

The strategic expansion of its internal manufacturing capacity is another key reason to invest in Texas Instruments. TI is one of the few analog semiconductor companies investing aggressively in its own fabrication infrastructure, particularly in 300-millimeter wafer fabs. This expansion not only increases production capability but also strengthens the company’s long-term cost advantage, enhances supply chain control, and improves its ability to serve customers reliably. As global demand for analog and embedded semiconductors grows - especially in industrial and automotive applications - TI’s ability to scale production internally gives it a meaningful edge. The company is executing a three-phase capacity roadmap to ensure it can meet customer needs well into the next decade. This includes the ramp-up of new fabs across multiple locations. By 2030, TI expects to manufacture more than 95% of its wafers in-house, with over 80% produced on cost-efficient 300-millimeter wafers. There are several reasons why this expansion is significant. First, it enables TI to offer geopolitically dependable supply, which is increasingly important as customers seek stability amid trade tensions and global disruptions. Second, internal production gives TI greater control over pricing, quality, and process development. The company can tailor its manufacturing to the specific needs of its analog and embedded products, boosting efficiency and reducing reliance on external foundries. Third, vertical integration across wafer fabrication and assembly/test allows TI to respond more quickly to changing demand, while providing dual sourcing options across regions - something customers value for risk mitigation. TI’s investment also reflects a long-term mindset. While capital expenditures may weigh on free cash flow in the short term, they position the company to grow capacity in line with future demand without needing rushed or expensive adjustments later.

The shift toward direct customer relationships is another reason to invest in Texas Instruments. In recent years, the company has made significant progress in building out its direct sales infrastructure, allowing it to engage more closely with customers and reduce its reliance on third-party distributors. In 2024, approximately 80% of TI’s revenue was transacted directly with customers, up from just one-third in 2019. This transformation reflects a broader strategy to gain more control over the customer experience, improve service, and increase long-term profitability. By transacting directly, TI can better understand customer needs and design projects, creating opportunities to sell more chips per product and deepen its share within each customer account. Closer relationships also provide greater visibility into demand trends and design cycles, enabling the company to align production and inventory more precisely. This reduces lead times, improves delivery reliability, and strengthens customer trust - especially important in industries like automotive and industrial, where quality and continuity of supply are essential. The company’s investment in digital infrastructure, particularly its online platform ti.com, plays a key role in this transition. Customers now have the flexibility to place orders online with real-time pricing and availability, while still having access to technical support and expert guidance. This shift reflects broader trends in B2B commerce, where speed, convenience, and digital self-service are becoming standard expectations. TI’s ability to support both traditional and digital sales channels makes it easier for tens of thousands of customers - large and small - to do business with the company. From a financial perspective, direct sales also improve profitability. By removing intermediary margins and maintaining control over pricing and fulfillment, TI can capture more value from each transaction. In addition, the company gains valuable insights from customer interactions that can be used to tailor offerings, refine sales strategies, and identify new growth opportunities.

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Valuation

Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators for free.

The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 5,20, which is from the year 2024. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 15%. Finbox expects EPS to grow by 18% in the next five years, but 15% is the highest number I use. Additionally, I have selected a projected future P/E ratio of 30, which is double the growth rate. This decision is based on Texas Instruments' historically higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Finally, our minimum acceptable rate of return has already been established at 15%. After performing the calculations, we determined the sticker price (also known as fair value or intrinsic value) to be $156,00 We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy Texas Instruments at a price of $78,00 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.

The second calculation is known as the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that a company owner (or stockholder) receives on the purchase price of the company essentially represents its return on investment. The minimum annual return should be at least 10%, which I calculate as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 6.318, and capital expenditures were 4.820. I attempted to analyze their annual report to calculate the percentage of capital expenditures allocated to maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 3.374 in our calculations. The tax provision was 654. We have 912,2 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (6.318 – 3.374 + 654) / 912,2 x 10 = $39,44 in Ten Cap price.

The final calculation is referred to as the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With Texas Instruments' free cash flow per share at $1,64 and a growth rate of 15%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is $25,89.

Conclusion

I believe that Texas Instruments is a great company with strong management. The company has built its competitive moat on four durable advantages that are central to its strategy and business model, and management continues to invest in strengthening these advantages. TI has consistently achieved a high ROIC and maintains a clear focus on growing free cash flow per share over the long term. The last two years of elevated capital expenditures have weighed on both ROIC and free cash flow, and this trend is expected to continue through 2027. However, since these investments are directed toward expanding future capacity and efficiency, I’m not concerned about the short-term decline in these metrics. Competition remains a risk for Texas Instruments due to the highly fragmented and increasingly aggressive nature of the analog and embedded semiconductor markets. Rising pressure from Chinese firms, often supported by government policy, adds to this challenge. The cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry is another risk. Shifts in customer demand, inventory levels, and capacity utilization can cause volatility in revenue, margins, and cash flow. Even with its diversified end markets, TI remains exposed to broader industry downturns that can lead to excess inventory and underused capacity. The evolving legal and regulatory environment also presents a risk. Frequent changes to trade, export, and national security regulations - especially amid geopolitical tensions - can disrupt sales, supply chains, and customer relationships. Given TI’s global footprint and significant exposure to Asia, even a single policy change in a key market could materially affect its operations. On the positive side, TI’s increasing focus on industrial and automotive markets is a strong reason to invest. These sectors offer long product life cycles, rising semiconductor content, and structural growth drivers that support steady, recurring revenue. The company’s ongoing expansion of internal manufacturing capacity is another strength. By bringing more of its production in-house - particularly through its 300-millimeter wafer fabs - TI strengthens its cost advantage, improves supply chain control, and enhances its ability to deliver dependable supply amid global disruptions. The shift toward direct customer relationships is also a compelling factor. With about 80% of revenue now transacted directly, TI can better understand customer needs, improve service, and capture more value by reducing reliance on intermediaries. Overall, I believe Texas Instruments is a strong candidate for long-term investors. When it comes to valuation, it's important to note that certain models - like the Ten Cap and Payback Time - are affected by the company’s unusually high capital expenditures. TI expects free cash flow per share to range between $8 and $12 in a year still impacted by those investments. Using $8 in free cash flow per share and a 15% growth rate, the Payback Time price comes out to $126, a level at which I would feel very comfortable buying shares.

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