Ryanair: Low Costs, High Ambition

Ryanair is the biggest low-cost airline in Europe, known for offering cheap flights by keeping costs low and running a simple, efficient operation. It flies over 200 million passengers a year across a large network of direct routes, using one of the youngest and most fuel-efficient fleets in the region. With strong profits, steady growth, and a focus on doing more with less, Ryanair is in a good position to benefit as more people travel and smaller airlines struggle to compete. The question is: Should Ryanair be part of your portfolio?

This is not a financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and I only do these post in order to do my own analysis and elaborate about my decisions, especially for my copiers and followers. If you consider investing in any of the ideas I present, you should do your own research or contact a professional financial advisor, as all investing comes with a risk of losing money. You are also more than welcome to copy me.

For full disclosure, I should mention that I do not own any shares in Ryanair at the time of writing this analysis. If you would like to copy or view my portfolio, you can find instructions on how to do so here. If you want to purchase shares or fractional shares of Ryanair, you can do so through eToro. eToro is a highly user-friendly platform that allows you to get started on investing with as little as $50.

The Business

Ryanair Holdings is Europe’s largest low-cost airline group, operating a disciplined, high-frequency network of short-haul, point-to-point routes primarily across Europe and North Africa. Headquartered in Dublin and founded in 1984, Ryanair pioneered the ultra-low-cost carrier model in Europe in the early 1990s and has since grown into one of the continent’s most dominant airline groups. By the end of fiscal year 2025, Ryanair operated a large fleet of 613 short-haul planes, mostly made up of Boeing 737s, including a newer, more efficient version called the “Gamechanger.” It also used 26 Airbus A320s through one of its subsidiaries. The group includes five airlines - Ryanair DAC, Ryanair UK, Malta Air, Buzz, and Lauda - which together flew more than 3.500 times a day to around 230 airports across Europe and North Africa, all from 93 different base airports. Ryanair’s model revolves around offering low fares with no minimum stay requirements, using dynamic pricing based on booking timing and demand. The company also generates significant revenue from ancillary services such as baggage fees, seat reservations, priority boarding, car rentals, hotel bookings, and onboard sales, all integrated into a user-friendly website and mobile app. Operational efficiency is a core focus, with industry-leading on-time performance and a strong customer satisfaction score. Initiatives like the “Always Getting Better” program have helped improve the customer experience while preserving the airline’s low-cost structure by focusing on practical, cost-efficient upgrades. These include a more user-friendly website and mobile app, allocated seating, streamlined boarding, improved on-time performance, and better communication during delays. Rather than adding expensive extras, the program aims to make travel smoother and more reliable for passengers, while keeping fares low and operations efficient. Ryanair’s competitive moat lies in its ability to keep costs lower than most other airlines in Europe. By using mostly the same type of aircraft, it reduces the time and money needed for maintenance and training, while making it easier to plan flights efficiently. The company keeps a close eye on staff costs and encourages employees to work efficiently by linking part of their pay to performance. It also hires outside companies for certain services when that proves more cost-effective, and it agrees to fixed prices for several years to avoid sudden cost increases. Because Ryanair operates at a large scale and flies frequently on many routes, it can make better use of its planes and fill more seats. By flying to smaller, less crowded airports, it avoids high fees and scheduling limitations that are common at big city airports. Its website and app make it easy for customers to book directly, which helps the company earn extra revenue from add-ons like seat selection or luggage, without making operations more complicated. Ryanair uses a point-to-point model, meaning passengers fly directly between two destinations without layovers or transfers. This helps keep flights on time and reduces the cost and hassle of handling connecting passengers. The airline is also known for attracting large numbers of new travelers when it launches new routes, helping it grow steadily while sticking to its low-cost roots.

Management

Michael O’Leary serves as the CEO of Ryanair, a position he has held since 1994 after initially joining the company as CFO in 1988. He has played a central role in transforming Ryanair into Europe’s largest low-cost airline. Michael O’Leary studied business and economics at Trinity College Dublin and began his career at the accounting firm Stokes Kennedy Crowley, now known as KPMG, where he specialized in tax. During his time there, he met Tony Ryan, founder of Ryanair, and later became his personal financial advisor before joining Ryanair’s leadership team. Under the leadership of Michael O’Leary, Ryanair adopted and expanded the low-cost airline model, focusing on offering very low fares and generating additional income through optional services such as checked luggage, seat selection, car rentals, and onboard sales. He pushed for lower airport fees by negotiating directly with smaller regional airports and played an important role in opening up the European aviation market through deregulation. His management style emphasizes cost discipline, operational efficiency, and high aircraft utilization, all of which have helped Ryanair grow into one of the most profitable airlines in Europe. Michael O’Leary is often seen as a controversial figure in the aviation industry. He is widely known for his outspoken personality, provocative remarks, and confrontational approach to dealing with regulators, unions, and the media. Some of his comments have sparked backlash or led to public apologies. Despite the controversy, I personally appreciate his frankness and direct style of communication. In a highly competitive and tightly regulated industry, Michael O’Leary’s willingness to challenge conventions and speak plainly makes him a unique and often refreshing presence. While his leadership style is not without criticism, Michael O’Leary has undeniably shaped the European airline industry. By making flying more affordable and accessible, he has influenced how millions of people travel across the continent. His ability to pair sharp strategic thinking with uncompromising cost control has made Ryanair a dominant force in short-haul aviation and cemented his status as one of Europe’s most influential business leaders.

The Numbers

The first number we will look into is the return on invested capital, also known as ROIC. We want to see a 10-year history, with all numbers exceeding 10% in each year. Excluding fiscal years 2019, 2020 and 2021, which were affected by the COVID pandemic, Ryanair has consistently achieved a high ROIC above 10 percent, which is very encouraging. There are several reasons why Ryanair has been able to deliver such strong results. First, the company keeps its costs very low. It mostly flies one type of aircraft, which makes maintenance, training, and operations simpler and cheaper. It also negotiates good deals when buying or leasing planes and keeps labor and airport costs down. This means it can run the airline efficiently without needing to spend too much. Second, Ryanair makes a solid profit on each flight. Compared to many other airlines, it earns a higher percentage of profit from the money it brings in, which is a sign of strong business performance. Third, it makes great use of its planes. Ryanair flies short, direct routes with quick turnarounds, so each aircraft spends more time in the air generating revenue and less time sitting idle on the ground. Fourth, Ryanair earns a lot from extra services like baggage fees, seat selection, car rentals, and onboard snacks. These extras cost relatively little to offer but bring in significant additional income. Fifth, because Ryanair is such a large airline, it has the power to negotiate good deals with airports and suppliers. This helps keep costs down and profits up. Finally, the company is careful with how it invests and borrows money. It manages its finances well and has a strong credit rating, which means it can grow the business without taking on too much debt or spending unnecessarily. ROIC decreased slightly in fiscal year 2025 as average ticket prices dropped. However, management expects fares to recover, which should help improve ROIC moving forward.

The next numbers are the book value + dividend. In my old format this was known as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used to use in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it moving forward. As you are used to see the numbers in percentage, I have decided to share both the numbers and the percentage growth year over year. To put it simply, equity is the part of the company that belongs to its shareholders – like the portion of a house you truly own after paying off part of the mortgage. Growing equity over time means the company is becoming more valuable for its owners. So, when we track book value plus dividends, we’re essentially looking at how much value is being built for shareholders year after year. Over the years, equity has increased most of the time because the company usually makes strong profits and keeps much of that money in the business instead of paying it all out. This steady growth in retained earnings helps build up the value of the company. In fiscal year 2025, however, equity decreased slightly. This happened even though the company remained profitable. The main reason is that Ryanair returned a lot of money to shareholders by buying back its own shares. There were also some accounting adjustments related to fuel hedging that had a negative impact.

Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins offer a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. Ryanair has managed to achieve a positive free cash flow in all years except for fiscal year 2021, which ran from April 1, 2020 to March 31, 2021, during the height of the COVID pandemic. Ryanair delivered its second-highest free cash flow ever in fiscal year 2025. Free cash flow grew significantly from fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2025. This happened for two main reasons. First, Ryanair generated more cash from its regular airline operations. Second, it spent less than usual on buying new planes and other major investments. Ryanair has also managed to maintain a relatively high levered free cash flow margin, especially in the years following the pandemic. This is thanks to its strong focus on cost control, efficient operations, and steady demand for low-cost travel. The company uses its free cash flow in several ways. Ryanair has historically repurchased shares on a large scale. In fiscal year 2025 alone, it bought back 7% of its shares. Over the past 15 years, the company has reduced its total number of shares outstanding by approximately 36%. However, management does not expect significant share buybacks over the next two years, as the company is focusing on paying down debt due to new aircraft deliveries. Ryanair also pays a dividend. In the past two years, it has returned 25% of its annual after-tax profit to shareholders in the form of ordinary dividends. If this approach continues, shareholders should expect higher dividend payouts in the future. The free cash flow yield is currently at its second-highest level in the past decade, which suggests that the shares are trading at an attractive valuation. However, we will revisit valuation later in the analysis.

Debt

Another important area to investigate is debt, and we want to see whether a business has a reasonable level of debt that could be paid off within three years. To assess this, we divide total long-term debt by earnings. When applying this measure to Ryanair, the result shows that it would take approximately 1,1 years of earnings to pay off its long-term debt. This is well below the three-year threshold. Hence, debt is not a concern when investing in Ryanair. Ryanair’s management has said they plan to pay off all their upcoming debt using their own cash, instead of borrowing more. This includes one large repayment due in September and another in May 2026. Since interest rates are now higher, using cash is the cheaper and smarter option. Right now, Ryanair has over 4 billion euros in cash, and they expect to be almost completely debt-free within the next year. By then, they will be flying a fleet of 650 aircraft with little or no debt tied to it. This shows that Ryanair is in a strong financial position and doesn’t need to rely on expensive loans to manage its business. That kind of financial discipline is a good sign for investors.

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Risks

Macroeconomics and geopolitics is a risk for Ryanair. The airline industry depends heavily on economic stability and global cooperation, and Ryanair is no exception. When the economy slows down, whether due to inflation, rising interest rates, or consumer uncertainty, people and businesses often cut back on travel. That puts pressure on Ryanair’s ability to raise fares, even as costs like fuel or airport fees might be rising. Geopolitical tensions have also become a growing concern. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have not only disrupted some of Ryanair’s routes but also created broader instability that affects fuel prices, supply chains, and overall travel demand. Ryanair has already had to suspend flights to Tel Aviv and is re-evaluating its plans for returning to Ukraine, which before the war was one of its major growth markets. Ryanair’s management has expressed frustration about repeated flight disruptions to Israel and slow progress in reopening routes in Ukraine. They made it clear that while they are eager to return to these markets, the surrounding uncertainty and lack of cooperation from local airports make it difficult to plan. Beyond route-specific impacts, these conflicts also lead to broader concerns like supply disruptions and higher fuel prices, which affect the entire business. There are also risks from trade tensions. Management has pointed out that tariffs could hurt economic growth and raise costs for consumers and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic. Combined with inflation and tight monetary policy in Europe, this puts further pressure on consumer spending, which directly affects demand for low-cost travel.

Regulation is a risk for Ryanair. As a low-cost airline, Ryanair’s business model relies on efficiency, pricing freedom, and lean operations. But increasing regulatory pressure from both national governments and the European Union threatens that model in several ways. First, Ryanair is exposed to rising government and environmental taxes on air travel. These charges are often applied as flat fees per passenger, which disproportionately affect low-fare airlines like Ryanair. In several countries, including Italy, the Netherlands, and Belgium, new or increased taxes have made flights more expensive for customers and harder to sell at low prices. Ryanair argues that these taxes unfairly benefit traditional network carriers by exempting transfer passengers, which distorts competition and penalizes direct, point-to-point operators. Second, climate-related regulation is pushing costs higher. The EU’s “Fit for 55” package includes phasing out free carbon credits under the Emissions Trading System, and mandating the use of more expensive sustainable aviation fuel. While Ryanair supports environmental goals, it warns that the supply of sustainable fuel may fall short of the targets, and the rising cost of compliance will add to operating expenses. Third, Ryanair sees growing legal interference in its ability to set prices and manage operations. For example, Spain’s Consumer Ministry has tried to force airlines to allow unlimited cabin bags free of charge, which Ryanair says violates EU law that guarantees airlines the right to set their own pricing policies. The company is currently appealing large fines in Spanish courts. Ryanair also criticizes a recent French rule that bans certain short domestic flights in favor of trains, and fears similar political pressure could expand to other countries and limit route options or passenger volume. Fourth, passenger compensation rules have become stricter. EU law requires airlines to compensate travelers for delays or cancellations, and recent court rulings have narrowed what counts as “extraordinary circumstances,” meaning Ryanair must now pay compensation in more situations—including staff strikes and technical issues. This increases the risk of unexpected costs when delays occur, especially given Ryanair’s large volume of short-haul flights.

Delivery delays on planes are a risk for Ryanair. As a low-cost airline, Ryanair’s growth strategy relies heavily on adding new, fuel-efficient aircraft at the right time to expand its network, keep operating costs low, and carry more passengers at affordable fares. When these deliveries are delayed, the entire plan is disrupted. In recent years, Ryanair has experienced repeated delays from Boeing, which have directly impacted its ability to grow. For example, the company had to cut its traffic target for fiscal year 2025 because it did not receive as many aircraft as expected. These delays mean Ryanair cannot add as many new routes or increase flight frequency as planned, which limits its growth, even though demand for low-cost travel remains strong. These delivery delays also reduce flexibility. In one recent case, Boeing asked Ryanair to take delivery of 29 aircraft earlier than originally planned, during the slower winter period. While Ryanair agreed to take them early to avoid further disruption next summer, it is not ideal to receive aircraft at a time when they cannot be used efficiently. This shows how delays can force the airline into suboptimal decisions just to stay on track. Looking ahead, Ryanair’s next phase of growth depends on the timely certification and delivery of the new Boeing MAX 10 aircraft. These planes are key to Ryanair’s long-term cost advantage because they can carry more passengers and use less fuel than the current fleet. If there are delays in certification or production, it could slow down Ryanair’s plan to reach 300 million passengers by 2034 and reduce its ability to lower fares further. Even though Boeing’s performance has started to improve under new management, the overall production backlog remains high across the industry, and the risk of further delays has not gone away. In a market where many airlines are competing for new aircraft, any disruption in deliveries puts Ryanair at a disadvantage, even more so when lease prices for used planes are rising sharply.

Reasons to invest

Traffic growth is a reason to invest in Ryanair. The company has a proven track record of using lower fares to stimulate demand and grow its passenger base, even in challenging environments. In fiscal year 2025, Ryanair carried a record 200 million passengers, a 9% increase from the previous year, despite delivery delays that limited its ability to add new aircraft. This milestone made Ryanair the world’s largest low-fare airline by passenger volume. Ryanair’s ability to consistently grow traffic comes down to its core strategy: offer the lowest fares in the market and make up the difference through strong ancillary sales like seat selection, baggage fees, and car rentals. When the company dropped fares by 7 percent last year, it triggered a surge in passenger numbers - clearly showing how price-sensitive demand works in its favor. As disposable incomes and leisure travel continue to rise across Europe, Ryanair is well positioned to capture more of that demand thanks to its vast route network and cost advantage. The company’s fleet expansion is key to supporting this growth. Ryanair expects to grow its passenger count from 206 million in fiscal year 2026 to 300 million by the early 2030s, driven by deliveries of more fuel-efficient, high-capacity aircraft like the Boeing MAX 10. These new aircraft will allow Ryanair to add more seats while cutting fuel use, further reducing costs and allowing the airline to keep fares low. This cycle of lower costs, lower fares, higher traffic is at the heart of Ryanair’s long-term growth model. Importantly, Ryanair is also disciplined in how it deploys its capacity. It chooses routes and airports carefully, avoiding unprofitable growth. In recent years, it has opened new bases and added over 160 new routes while maintaining profitability. And rather than trying to expand into areas outside its core strengths, such as holiday packaging, Ryanair chooses to focus on scaling its core operation - flying more people, more efficiently, at the lowest possible cost.

Low unit cost is a reason to invest in Ryanair. The company has built its entire business model around cost efficiency, and this advantage continues to widen. While many European airlines have seen their costs rise sharply due to inflation, higher leasing rates, and increased environmental charges, Ryanair managed to keep its cost per passenger flat over the past year. That’s a significant achievement in an inflationary environment and it strengthens the company’s cost leadership across the industry. Ryanair’s ability to maintain low unit costs gives it unmatched flexibility in pricing. When necessary, the airline can cut fares to stimulate demand and still remain profitable is something many competitors simply can't afford to do. For example, a 7% drop in average fares last year helped push passenger growth to a record 200 million, while still delivering strong profits. That kind of resilience comes directly from having a structurally lower cost base. This cost advantage is the result of multiple factors working together: a young and fuel-efficient fleet, high aircraft utilization, direct sales through its website and app, disciplined cost control, and ongoing digital investments through Ryanair Labs. Initiatives like mobile boarding, automated customer service, and AI-driven pricing not only improve the passenger experience, they also reduce expenses and make operations more efficient. Looking ahead, Ryanair expects only modest increases in unit costs, even as environmental fees like ETS and SAF mandates rise. This is thanks to its ongoing transition to more efficient aircraft, favorable fuel hedging, and careful route planning. In contrast, competitors face steeper cost pressure from rising financing and operational costs, which continues to widen the gap.

Consolidation in the European airline industry is a reason to invest in Ryanair. As weaker or smaller players struggle to survive, the market is steadily shifting toward a few large airline groups, and Ryanair is emerging as one of the dominant winners. Ryanair is already the largest airline in key countries like Italy and Portugal, and management expects to benefit as larger legacy carriers like Lufthansa and IAG absorb smaller rivals such as Alitalia and potentially TAP. These mergers typically lead to less price competition and more rational capacity planning. In other words, when fewer players chase the same routes, pricing becomes more stable and often stronger. Unlike many legacy carriers, Ryanair operates with a significantly lower cost base, giving it a clear advantage in almost any competitive environment. As other airlines merge, they often carry over higher costs, such as expensive labor agreements and debt obligations, which can make it harder for them to compete on price. Ryanair on the other hand stays lean and focused on efficiency, which puts it in a strong position to continue growing profitably even as the industry becomes more consolidated. Consolidation also creates new opportunities for Ryanair to gain market share. When mergers are approved, regulators often require the merged airline to give up certain slots or routes to maintain fair competition. Ryanair, with its strong balance sheet and ability to deploy capacity quickly, is well-placed to step in and capture those openings, often at minimal cost. Looking ahead, management expects the industry to coalesce around four large players: Lufthansa Group, IAG, Air France-KLM, and Ryanair. While others like Wizz Air and easyJet may eventually need to merge or find stronger partners, Ryanair’s scale, efficiency, and independence give it room to keep expanding. In a more consolidated industry, Ryanair is not just getting by but continuing to grow. Its low cost structure allows it to offer lower fares, attract passengers from other airlines, and take advantage of more stable industry capacity. This positions Ryanair as a strong investment over the long term.

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Valuation

Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators for free.

The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 1,57, which is from the fiscal year 2025. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 14%. Finbox expects EPS to grow by 14,2% in the next five years. Additionally, I have selected a projected future P/E ratio of 28, which is double the growth rate. This decision is based on Ryanair's historically higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Finally, our minimum acceptable rate of return has already been established at 15%. After performing the calculations, we determined the sticker price (also known as fair value or intrinsic value) to be $40,28. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy Ryanair at a price of $20,14 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.

The second calculation is known as the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that a company owner (or stockholder) receives on the purchase price of the company essentially represents its return on investment. The minimum annual return should be at least 10%, which I calculate as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 3.695, and capital expenditures were 1.680. I attempted to analyze their annual report to calculate the percentage of capital expenditures allocated to maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 1.176 in our calculations. The tax provision was 187. We have 1.066 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (3.695 – 1.176 + 187) / 1.066 x 10 = $25,38 in Ten Cap price.

The final calculation is referred to as the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With Ryanair's free cash flow per share at $1,89 and a growth rate of 14%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is $28,51.

Conclusion

I believe that Ryanair is an intriguing company with great management. It has built a moat through its ability to keep costs lower than most other airlines in Europe. Excluding the pandemic, the company has consistently achieved a high ROIC, and due to its business model, this is expected to continue. Free cash flow reached its second highest level ever in fiscal year 2025, and the levered free cash flow margin also increased year over year, reaching its third highest level ever. The company has little debt but still expects to pay off all outstanding debt within a year. Macroeconomics and geopolitics are risks for Ryanair because economic slowdowns, inflation, and rising interest rates can reduce demand for travel. Geopolitical tensions such as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East can disrupt flight routes, raise fuel costs, and create broader uncertainty that makes it harder to plan and grow. Regulations are also a risk for Ryanair because new taxes, stricter environmental rules, and tighter consumer protections increase costs and limit its ability to operate with the efficiency and pricing flexibility that define its low cost model. As governments and the EU introduce more rules, including fuel mandates and baggage policies, Ryanair faces growing pressure that could hurt margins. Delivery delays are a risk because Ryanair’s growth and cost efficiency depend on getting new aircraft on time. When deliveries are late, the airline cannot expand its network as planned. This limits its ability to meet rising demand and maintain its low cost advantage. Traffic growth is a key reason to invest in Ryanair. The company has a proven ability to use low fares to attract more passengers and grow market share even in tough conditions. As it expands its fuel efficient fleet, Ryanair is well positioned to carry significantly more passengers in the years ahead while keeping costs and fares low. This supports a cycle of profitable growth. Low unit cost is a core reason to invest in Ryanair because it gives the airline a lasting edge over competitors. By keeping costs low even in an inflationary environment, Ryanair can offer cheaper fares, stimulate demand, and stay profitable while others struggle with rising expenses. Consolidation in the European airline industry supports Ryanair’s growth by reducing price competition and creating a more stable market. As legacy carriers absorb weaker rivals, Ryanair stands out with its lower cost base, strong balance sheet, and ability to gain market share through disciplined expansion and regulatory openings. I believe that Ryanair is the best company in the industry, and while I do not usually invest in airlines, I believe that buying shares in Ryanair at the Payback Time price of 28 dollars could be a good long term investment.

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