Ashtead: Built for the Long Haul

Ashtead is one of the largest equipment rental companies in North America and the U.K., best known for its Sunbelt Rentals brand. With over 1.300 locations and a growing presence in both general and specialty rentals, the company serves construction, infrastructure, and industrial markets. Its scale, branch network, and operational efficiency give it an edge in service and logistics. As demand from large-scale projects rises, Ashtead is well positioned for long-term growth. The question is: Should this rental leader be in your portfolio?

This is not a financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and I only do these post in order to do my own analysis and elaborate about my decisions, especially for my copiers and followers. If you consider investing in any of the ideas I present, you should do your own research or contact a professional financial advisor, as all investing comes with a risk of losing money. You are also more than welcome to copy me.

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The Business

Ashtead Group is one of the world’s largest equipment rental companies, operating primarily under the Sunbelt Rentals brand in North America, which accounts for the vast majority of its revenue, and to a lesser extent in the UK. Through its network of over 1.300 locations, the company rents a wide range of general and specialty construction and industrial equipment to customers across sectors including commercial construction, infrastructure, utilities, manufacturing, entertainment, and disaster response. Its North American operations are divided between general tool rentals, serving non-residential construction projects, and specialty rentals, which cover areas like power and HVAC, flooring, scaffolding, trench safety, and temporary structures. In the UK, where the rental market is more mature, Sunbelt focuses on industrial and construction customers with a similarly broad equipment offering. Ashtead’s moat lies in its scale, density, operational playbook, and customer relationships. Its dense branch network allows it to operate with high efficiency, keeping equipment close to job sites and reducing delivery times. In major metro areas, it builds clusters of stores that increase availability, enable rapid service, and allow it to serve both small contractors and large national builders. These clusters improve asset utilization and give Ashtead a meaningful edge over smaller, less flexible rivals. Its fleet, worth over $17 billion at original cost, gives the company considerable buying power with manufacturers and the ability to redeploy equipment across regions as demand shifts. This scale advantage also makes Ashtead the only practical option for national contractors working on large projects across multiple states. The company reinforces this position by acquiring smaller rental businesses and integrating them into its network. After acquisition, it typically expands the branch’s fleet, especially with larger, more specialized equipment like boom lifts and reach forklifts, enabling the location to serve bigger, longer-term projects. At the same time, Ashtead retains local staff and customer relationships, preserving the trust and community knowledge that made the business successful in the first place. Ashtead also benefits from data-driven pricing discipline by using tools like Rouse Analytics to benchmark rental rates across markets. This allows the company to avoid underpricing and maintain rate consistency, which helps protect margins even as competition increases. In addition, Ashtead often has a physical presence directly on large job sites, such as mobile offices or fenced equipment yards. This level of access strengthens relationships with contractors and increases customer loyalty, making it harder for new competitors to win those accounts. Together, these factors give Ashtead a strong and defensible position in a market that still has significant potential for consolidation and long-term growth.

Management

​Brendan Horgan serves as the CEO of Ashtead Group, a role he assumed in May 2019 after more than two decades with the company. He joined Sunbelt Rentals, Ashtead’s North American subsidiary, in 1996 and has held a series of senior leadership positions across sales, operations, and general management. Prior to becoming CEO of Ashtead Group, Brendan Horgan served as Chief Executive of Sunbelt US and was appointed Chief Operating Officer of the Group in 2018. He has also served on Ashtead’s Board of Directors since 2011 and currently chairs the Finance and Administration Committee. With over 25 years of experience in the equipment rental industry, Brendan Horgan brings a deep operational understanding and a hands-on leadership style to the business. His career path has spanned key roles including Chief Sales Officer and Chief Operating Officer, giving him direct experience in every aspect of Sunbelt’s growth and integration strategy. Under his leadership, Ashtead has continued to expand its footprint in North America, executing a disciplined acquisition strategy and deepening its presence in specialty rentals. Brendan Horgan is known for his execution focus and long-term orientation, with a leadership approach that emphasizes operational excellence, local decision-making, and customer responsiveness. As CEO, he has championed the company’s strategic growth plan, known as Sunbelt 4.0, which focuses on enhancing customer service, driving fleet efficiency, expanding into new specialty areas, and maintaining disciplined capital allocation. With his extensive industry knowledge and proven leadership, Brendan Horgan is well-positioned to guide Ashtead through the next phase of growth.

The Numbers

The first number we will look into is the return on invested capital, also known as ROIC. We want to see a 10-year history, with all numbers exceeding 10% in each year. The first number we will look into is the return on invested capital, also known as ROIC. We want to see a 10-year history, with all numbers exceeding 10% in each year. Ashtead has consistently delivered a ROIC above 10% over the past decade. This strong performance is the result of combining scale, efficiency, and disciplined growth. Its large equipment fleet, worth over 17 billion dollars, gives it strong buying power and the flexibility to move equipment where it is needed. Combined with a dense network of branches, this allows Ashtead to serve more customers with faster delivery and less downtime, keeping its equipment in use more often and generating stronger returns. As local markets grow and branch networks mature, Ashtead is able to handle more rental activity without adding much extra overhead. This means it can spread costs like sales, service, and maintenance across more jobs, which improves profitability and boosts returns on new investment. The company also benefits from smarter pricing. By using tools like Rouse Analytics, Ashtead can set rental rates based on market data, helping it avoid underpricing and keep margins stable, even in competitive areas. While some types of equipment, like heavy CDL machines, bring in lower revenue per dollar invested, Ashtead keeps them in use for longer periods, which helps maintain solid returns overall. Another reason for its strong performance is its mix of general and specialty rentals. Specialty divisions like power, climate control, and trench safety tend to have more stable demand and often require more service, which creates higher margins and makes the business less sensitive to economic ups and downs. Finally, Ashtead’s acquisition strategy helps it grow in a capital-efficient way. Instead of chasing large, expensive deals, it focuses on acquiring smaller local rental companies. These are quickly integrated into the existing network, upgraded with more equipment, and scaled up to serve larger projects. This approach allows Ashtead to grow profitably while keeping returns on capital high. Ashtead’s ROIC dipped in FY 2025 due to a combination of slower growth and heavier investment. The company had expanded its fleet and branch network in anticipation of continued strong demand, especially from megaprojects, but growth in the general tool business normalized more quickly than expected. Revenue also slowed as infrastructure spending faced delays and non-residential construction became more cautious. At the same time, recent acquisitions and a shift toward more capital-intensive equipment temporarily weighed on returns, as these assets take longer to reach full utilization. Inflation and higher interest rates added further pressure. However, ROIC should improve going forward as acquired locations mature, demand continues to recover, and the expanded fleet is more fully utilized across a growing base of long-term projects.

The next numbers are the book value + dividend. In my old format this was known as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used to use in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it moving forward. As you are used to see the numbers in percentage, I have decided to share both the numbers and the percentage growth year over year. To put it simply, equity is the part of the company that belongs to its shareholders – like the portion of a house you truly own after paying off part of the mortgage. Growing equity over time means the company is becoming more valuable for its owners. So, when we track book value plus dividends, we’re essentially looking at how much value is being built for shareholders year after year. I don't have the growth rate from 2015 to 2016 as Finbox only provides data for the past ten years. Ashtead has managed to increase its equity every year for the past decade mainly because of strong and consistent profitability. The company earns solid returns from its rental operations and reinvests a large portion of its earnings back into the business. This reinvestment supports long-term growth and adds to retained earnings, which directly increases equity. While Ashtead does carry a significant amount of debt, it has used that debt to expand its fleet, acquire smaller rental firms, and build out its branch network, all of which have helped drive higher earnings over time. The company has also avoided major losses or write-downs, even during downturns, which means the equity base has grown steadily without being damaged by setbacks. Altogether, Ashtead’s ability to reinvest profitably and grow earnings faster than liabilities has allowed equity to rise each year over the past decade, even in a capital-intensive and debt-heavy business.

Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins provide a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. Free cash flow and the levered free cash flow margin have been somewhat up and down over the past ten years. This is mainly because the company regularly spends large amounts of money to grow its business, especially on new equipment and opening new locations. Some years, that investment is heavier than others, which makes free cash flow less predictable. For example, free cash flow was negative in FY 2016 because Ashtead invested a lot in expanding its fleet after a strong growth period. But overall, the company has continued to generate solid cash flow, and it has shown that it can adjust how much it spends when needed. Even in a year with softer demand, Ashtead recently delivered one of its best-ever free cash flow results. The company expects free cash flow to grow in the year ahead, helped by more stable investment levels and better timing of payments. In the long run, Ashtead sees cash flow as a key strength of its business. It can shift equipment to areas where demand is stronger, hold off on new spending when needed, and make the most of the equipment it already owns. Free cash flow is also used to reward shareholders. Ashtead recently returned a record amount through dividends and share buybacks, and it has started a new buyback program that it plans to complete within the year. The free cash flow yield is at one of its highest levels in the past decade, which indicates that the shares are trading at an attractive valuation. However, we are going to revisit valuation later in the analysis.

Debt

Another important aspect to consider is debt. It is crucial to evaluate whether a business has a manageable debt level that can be repaid within three years, which is typically assessed by dividing total long-term debt by earnings. An analysis of Ashtead’s financials shows that the company currently has debt equal to 5,0 years of earnings. This is higher than I would normally like, and it means the company is more exposed to rising interest rates or a sudden drop in profit. However, Ashtead has used this debt to fund growth rather than to cover losses. It has invested in expanding its fleet, acquiring smaller rental firms, and opening new locations, all of which have helped drive higher earnings over time. Despite the elevated debt level, the company continues to grow and generate strong free cash flow. It has also avoided issuing large amounts of new shares, so existing shareholders have not been diluted.  While having debt equal to 5 years of earnings is on the high side, Ashtead has consistently made enough money to cover its payments, and the way it has used that debt to grow the business helps explain why the number is higher. For that reason, the high debt alone would not keep me from investing in Ashtead.

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Risks

Macroeconomic conditions are an important risk to consider when looking at Ashtead. The company’s biggest source of revenue is construction, which tends to follow the general economy but with a delay of 12 to 24 months. This means that even if the economy starts to slow, construction activity may stay strong for a while before suddenly pulling back. When that happens, contractors rent less equipment, rental rates fall, and Ashtead’s fleet is used less. At the same time, Ashtead still has to cover many of the same costs whether its equipment is rented out or not. It needs to maintain its large fleet and keep more than 1,300 branches running, which includes expenses like rent, salaries, and repairs. Because many of these costs stay the same regardless of how much equipment is rented, a drop in revenue can quickly reduce profits. We have seen this before. During the 2008 to 2009 financial crisis, Ashtead’s revenue fell by 60 percent in just two months, and prices across the rental industry collapsed. The company is better prepared today. It has become more disciplined with pricing, expanded into specialty rentals, and serves more large-scale infrastructure projects that are less sensitive to short-term changes in the economy. Even so, a deep recession would still be difficult. If the economy weakens, Ashtead could see falling demand, lower pricing, and reduced values for its used equipment. That would put pressure on both earnings and the value of the assets it owns. While Ashtead has become more resilient, its core business is still closely tied to economic activity, and in a severe downturn, it could be affected quickly and significantly.

Competition is an important risk to consider for Ashtead. Even though Ashtead is one of the largest equipment rental companies in North America, it still holds only a bit more than 10 percent of the market. Its largest competitor, United Rentals, holds slightly more, around 13 percent. This means the rest of the market is made up of many smaller regional and local rental companies. These smaller players often compete aggressively on price, especially during slower periods when demand is weaker and everyone is trying to keep their equipment rented out. While Ashtead has advantages like scale, a wide range of equipment, and a strong branch network, it still competes locally in every market. Smaller competitors may be willing to offer lower rates to win jobs, and this can put pressure on Ashtead’s pricing, particularly in certain niches or regions. Even among larger players, there is always the risk that pricing becomes more aggressive. Industry tools like Rouse Analytics have helped bring more pricing discipline, but if competitors begin fighting harder for large accounts, particularly in a more consolidated market, it could lead to renewed pressure on rental rates and margins. In addition, as the industry consolidates further, some smaller competitors may be acquired by well-funded national or regional groups, creating stronger challengers with better scale and reach. If Ashtead is unable to maintain its edge through service, availability, or pricing, it could lose market share in some areas. This would not only hurt revenue growth but could also lead to lower utilization of its fleet and downward pressure on returns. While Ashtead’s cluster strategy, broad equipment offering, and efficient logistics help defend its position, the risk of rising competition from both national rivals and nimble local operators remains a long-term consideration.

Capital intensity is a key risk for Ashtead because its business model depends heavily on owning and maintaining a large and expensive fleet of rental equipment. To grow, Ashtead needs to keep spending substantial amounts of money on new machines, expanding its branch network, and acquiring smaller rental companies. This creates two challenges. First, it means the company constantly has to make big capital investment decisions, and if those investments do not match future demand, returns can suffer. For example, if Ashtead adds too much equipment during a period of strong growth and the market then slows down, that extra fleet might sit idle, dragging down utilization rates and reducing profitability. Second, the cost of equipment keeps rising. More advanced and specialized machines such as CDL class vehicles or climate control units are significantly more expensive than standard tools, which makes it harder to stay flexible and increases the pressure to keep them fully utilized. If the used equipment market weakens at the same time, Ashtead might not be able to sell older machines for good prices, which would further reduce returns. The capital intensity of the industry also adds risk during periods of uncertainty. When interest rates are high or inflation raises the cost of new fleet, even small missteps in timing or demand forecasting can have a big impact on cash flow and returns. Ashtead has historically managed this well by adjusting spending based on market conditions, but the risk remains. Growing the business in such a capital heavy environment requires consistent discipline, accurate forecasting, and careful execution. If any of these fall short, especially during periods of economic change, it could put pressure on both earnings and long-term returns.

Reasons to invest

Ashtead’s exposure to mega projects is a strong reason to consider the company as a long-term investment. These massive projects, such as hospitals, semiconductor plants, data centers, and LNG terminals, require complex planning, large fleets of equipment, and reliable, full-service rental partners who can operate at scale. This is where Ashtead, through Sunbelt Rentals, has a clear advantage. National contractors increasingly prefer to work with one trusted provider for the full range of equipment and services needed, and Ashtead is often chosen as the sole supplier on these jobs. This kind of relationship leads to longer rental durations, higher fleet utilization, and deeper integration with customer operations, which reduces churn and supports more stable, recurring revenue. Ashtead has built dedicated teams to serve this segment, including cross-functional sellers and technical experts who work directly with both contractors and project owners. This level of engagement allows the company to get involved early in the planning process and tailor its solutions to the specific needs of each site. The company’s strong win rate and growing pipeline in this space reflect its ability to meet the complexity and scale that mega projects demand. Management expects this trend to continue, with more projects in the funnel each year and increasing revenue concentration from larger customers. In fact, not only are key accounts growing in size, but Ashtead’s share of the mega project segment is already more than twice its average market share, indicating a strong competitive position. Over time, as more of these long-cycle, high-value projects break ground and move into execution, Ashtead is well placed to benefit from steady, profitable growth. This structural tailwind, supported by trends like reindustrialization, digital infrastructure, and infrastructure renewal, should support demand for years to come.

Ashtead’s acquisition strategy is a key reason to consider the company as a long-term investment. The company has developed a proven and repeatable playbook for acquiring smaller, often undercapitalized rental businesses and turning them into high-performing branches within its broader network. After acquiring a local company, Ashtead typically expands the fleet, upgrades to include more capital-intensive equipment like CDL units, and integrates the branch into its national logistics and customer systems. This allows Sunbelt to maintain valuable local relationships while enhancing the branch’s capacity to serve larger, more complex projects, often winning national or regional accounts in the process. Ashtead focuses on bolt-on acquisitions that fit into its existing clustered market strategy, helping increase geographic density and improve fleet utilization. This model is not just about buying growth, but about scaling efficiently. Many of these acquired locations show meaningful progress in revenue, margin, and utilization within a few years. For instance, over 400 locations added in the past few years have grown steadily and now contribute significantly to rental revenue and EBITDA. As these locations mature, their margins converge toward the group average, supporting long-term profitability. What makes this strategy even more attractive is the disciplined approach Ashtead takes when evaluating targets. The company is highly selective and values culture, location fit, business line, and especially valuation. It has shown patience in waiting for reasonable deal prices and has avoided overpaying, even in a competitive market. Meanwhile, the pipeline remains robust, especially in the specialty rental space where growth opportunities are strong. The acquisition strategy works in tandem with the company’s greenfield expansion efforts. While Ashtead continues to open new locations each year, acquisitions complement this by adding scale, customer bases, and local market knowledge more quickly. Importantly, many of these acquisitions help unlock new customers, tens of thousands in recent years, further contributing to Ashtead’s market share gains and rental revenue growth.

Operational excellence is a major reason to invest in Ashtead, and it plays a central role in how the company translates scale into sustained profitability. Ashtead has built an integrated, data-driven operating model that allows it to serve customers efficiently across a dense and growing network of over 1.300 locations. One of the most important innovations in recent years is the move to market-based logistics operations, where delivery trucks and drivers are no longer tied to a single branch but instead serve all branches within a cluster. This shift, supported by Ashtead’s proprietary dispatch system known as VDOS 4.0, has led to faster equipment pickups, better routing, and reduced dependence on costly third-party haulers. In clusters that adopted this model early, pickup times have improved by more than 25 percent and third-party hauling costs have dropped by 40 percent. Ashtead is also extracting margin improvements from better repair and maintenance coordination. Instead of duplicating service functions at every location, the company is centralizing some activities within clusters, improving technician productivity and keeping equipment in use for longer periods. These efficiencies help reduce downtime, boost utilization, and keep operating costs in check, especially important in a capital-intensive business. The company has also benefited from technology investments made during its previous growth phase. Now, as part of the Sunbelt 4.0 strategy, it is leveraging those systems to manage costs, automate decisions, and improve service quality. These operational gains are already visible in Ashtead’s margins, with general tool and specialty businesses both reporting strong EBITDA and return on investment. Specialty businesses in particular, which tend to be less capital-intensive and more service-oriented, offer higher returns and are now a growing part of Ashtead’s overall mix. Importantly, these improvements have been achieved without cutting corners. Ashtead remains focused on delivering quality and speed to its customers, which helps it win more business and keep pricing stable even in competitive markets. In short, operational excellence is not just about cost-cutting. It reflects Ashtead’s ability to build infrastructure, adopt scalable processes, and integrate technology in ways that protect margins, support growth, and strengthen its competitive position.

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Valuation

Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators for free.

The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 2,59, which is from the fiscal year 2025. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 10%. Finbox expects EPS to grow by 10,4% over the next five years. Additionally, I have selected a projected future P/E ratio of 20, which is double the growth rate. This decision is based on Ashtead's historically higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Finally, our minimum acceptable rate of return has already been established at 15%. After performing the calculations, we determined the sticker price (also known as fair value or intrinsic value) to be £33,21. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy Ashtead at a price of £16,61 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.

The second calculation is known as the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that a company owner (or stockholder) receives on the purchase price of the company essentially represents its return on investment. The minimum annual return should be at least 10%, which I calculate as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 1.631, and capital expenditures were 342. I attempted to analyze their annual report to calculate the percentage of capital expenditures allocated to maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 239 in our calculations. The tax provision was 366. We have 433,1 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (1.631 – 239 + 366) / 433,1 x 10 = $40,59 in Ten Cap price. 

The final calculation is called the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With Ashtead's Free Cash Flow Per Share at £2,98 and a growth rate of 10%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is £37,49.

Conclusion

I believe Ashtead is an intriguing company with capable management. It has built a moat through scale, network density, a repeatable operating model, and strong customer relationships. The company has consistently delivered a high ROIC, and while free cash flow has been volatile, management expects it to grow in the year ahead. Macroeconomic conditions are a key risk because Ashtead’s business is closely tied to the construction sector, which tends to lag the broader economy. In a downturn, demand for equipment rentals can decline sharply while many of Ashtead’s costs remain fixed, putting pressure on profits, as seen during the 2008 financial crisis when revenue collapsed within months. Competition is another risk, as Ashtead operates in a fragmented market with many smaller local players that often compete aggressively on price during slower periods. Even larger rivals may go after major accounts more aggressively, and if Ashtead cannot maintain its edge in service, availability, or pricing, it could lose market share and face lower utilization and weaker returns. Capital intensity is also a risk, as the business requires ongoing investment in expensive equipment and new branches. If demand slows or equipment sits idle, returns can suffer, especially when equipment costs rise or the resale market weakens. Despite these risks, Ashtead’s exposure to large-scale mega projects such as data centers, hospitals, and semiconductor plants is a compelling reason to invest. These complex jobs favor full-service partners, and Ashtead is often selected as the sole supplier, which supports longer rental durations, higher utilization, and more stable revenue. Its disciplined acquisition strategy is another key strength. By acquiring and upgrading smaller rental firms and integrating them into its network, Ashtead drives utilization, margins, and local customer growth while scaling efficiently. This approach is supported by a strong deal pipeline and careful valuation discipline. Operational excellence is another advantage. Ashtead uses advanced logistics systems, centralized maintenance, and its proprietary dispatch platform to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and keep more of its fleet in use. This supports strong margins and improves returns as the company grows. Overall, there are many things to like about Ashtead, and buying shares below the Payback Time price of £37 could represent a good long-term investment.

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