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The Ralph Lauren Corporation: Dressing up your portfolio.

  • Glenn
  • Dec 16, 2023
  • 19 min read

Updated: Jul 2


Ralph Lauren is a globally recognized fashion and lifestyle company known for its timeless American aesthetic and premium positioning. Its portfolio includes iconic core products like cable-knit sweaters and Oxford shirts, complemented by fast-growing categories such as women’s apparel, outerwear, and handbags. Backed by a strong brand identity, elevated pricing power, and a growing direct-to-consumer presence, Ralph Lauren is actively expanding in key global cities while maintaining financial discipline and a high-return business model. The question is: Can this heritage brand continue to deliver in a fast-changing consumer landscape, and earn a place in your portfolio?


This is not a financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and I only do these post in order to do my own analysis and elaborate about my decisions, especially for my copiers and followers. If you consider investing in any of the ideas I present, you should do your own research or contact a professional financial advisor, as all investing comes with a risk of losing money. You are also more than welcome to copy me. 


For full disclosure, I should mention that I do not own any shares in Ralph Lauren at the time of writing this analysis. If you would like to copy or view my portfolio, you can find instructions on how to do so here. If you want to purchase shares or fractional shares of Ralph Lauren, you can do so through eToro. eToro is a highly user-friendly platform that allows you to get started on investing with as little as $50.



The Business


Ralph Lauren Corporation, founded in 1967, is a global leader in luxury lifestyle products encompassing apparel, footwear, accessories, home furnishings, fragrances, and hospitality. The company has built its reputation on the promise of timeless style and authenticity, offering a distinctly American aesthetic that blends elegance with sport-inspired design. With a portfolio of brands including Ralph Lauren Collection, Purple Label, Polo Ralph Lauren, Lauren, and Double RL, the company has become synonymous with aspirational living and enduring fashion. Its operations span North America, Europe, and Asia, and are supported by a well-diversified multi-channel distribution model that includes retail stores, concession-based shops, e-commerce platforms, wholesale relationships, and licensing agreements. Ralph Lauren reaches customers through more than 500 directly operated stores and over 9.400 wholesale doors worldwide. This global reach allows the company to remain resilient across regions and channels while maintaining a consistent brand image. The company’s competitive moat lies in the strength and emotional resonance of its brand. Ralph Lauren is not merely a fashion label but a lifestyle concept, communicated through everything from its clothing lines and home products to its restaurants and Olympic sponsorships. This depth of brand storytelling enables it to command premium pricing and sustain customer loyalty across generations. Ralph Lauren also benefits from global scale, enabling synergies in design, sourcing, and distribution. It is currently undertaking a large-scale transformation to accelerate its shift toward direct-to-consumer and enhance its digital capabilities. This initiative is expected to drive greater efficiency, better demand forecasting, and improved inventory management across markets. Through licensing partnerships, the company extends its reach into categories like eyewear, fragrances, and home goods without taking on the full operational burden, generating recurring royalties while preserving brand integrity. Its long-standing relationships with manufacturing partners and a focus on quality and sustainability help maintain the high standards expected of a luxury brand.


Management


Patrice Louvet serves as the CEO of Ralph Lauren Corporation, a role he assumed in 2017. Patrice Louvet brings nearly three decades of global leadership experience in the consumer goods industry, having held senior roles across North America, Europe, and Asia. Prior to joining Ralph Lauren Corporation, Patrice Louvet spent more than 25 years at Procter and Gamble, where he led and expanded several of the company’s multi-billion-dollar brands, including Gillette, Pantene, and SK-II. His experience at Procter and Gamble includes deep operational expertise in brand management, product innovation, and international market development across both retail and digital channels. Earlier in his career, Patrice Louvet served as a Naval Officer in the French Navy, contributing to his disciplined leadership style and international perspective. He holds an MBA from ESCP Business School in Paris and a second MBA from the University of Illinois. Since becoming CEO, Patrice Louvet has led Ralph Lauren Corporation’s brand elevation and global transformation strategy. Under his leadership, the company has significantly expanded its international presence and direct-to-consumer operations, areas that typically generate higher margins and foster stronger consumer engagement. He has also accelerated the company’s investment in digital capabilities and global operational efficiencies through initiatives such as the Next Generation Transformation project. In 2023, Ralph Lauren Corporation was named one of Forbes’ World’s Best Employers. Patrice Louvet currently serves on the Board of Directors of Danone and the Hospital for Special Surgery. He is also a member of the CEO Advisory Council of the Fashion Pact, a coalition committed to advancing environmental sustainability across the fashion and textile industries. Patrice Louvet is known for his collaborative leadership style, strategic discipline, and strong execution skills. When he was appointed as CEO, Ralph Lauren emphasized Patrice Louvet’s transformation experience, performance mindset, and alignment with the company’s values as reasons for choosing him as a trusted partner. Given his global experience, focus on high-margin business lines, and proven ability to lead through change, I believe Patrice Louvet is well-positioned to guide Ralph Lauren Corporation through its next phase of growth.


The Numbers


The first number we will look into is the return on invested capital, also known as ROIC. We want to see a 10-year history, with all numbers exceeding 10% in each year. The company has achieved a ROIC above 10 percent in seven of the past ten years. Ralph Lauren’s ROIC dropped noticeably in fiscal years 2020, 2021, and 2022 because of the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of the company’s stores were forced to close, and customer demand became unpredictable. To keep products moving, Ralph Lauren had to offer more discounts, which hurt profits. At the same time, the company had too much unsold inventory and continued paying for stores and operations that were not being used as much as normal. All of this made the company less efficient with how it used its money, leading to a lower ROIC during those years. Ralph Lauren’s ROIC reached a new high in fiscal 2025 thanks to a combination of higher profits and more efficient use of resources. The company saw a strong recovery in full-price sales, especially through its direct-to-consumer and international channels, which helped boost earnings. At the same time, it became more disciplined in how it managed inventory and streamlined its store footprint, reducing unnecessary costs and freeing up capital. Ongoing investments in digital capabilities also paid off, with a larger share of revenue coming from its own online platforms, which tend to be more profitable and helped lift returns even further. Ralph Lauren has not set a specific target for future ROIC, but improving it remains a clear priority. Management continues to focus on using capital efficiently and growing cash flow, and analysts have noted that the company’s financial strategy is built around sustaining and potentially increasing ROIC over time.


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The next numbers are the book value + dividend. In my old format this was known as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used to use in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it moving forward. As you are used to see the numbers in percentage, I have decided to share both the numbers and the percentage growth year over year. To put it simply, equity is the part of the company that belongs to its shareholders – like the portion of a house you truly own after paying off part of the mortgage. Growing equity over time means the company is becoming more valuable for its owners. So, when we track book value plus dividends, we’re essentially looking at how much value is being built for shareholders year after year. Over the past decade, equity has declined in certain years, mainly due to lower earnings during more challenging periods. This was especially the case during the pandemic, when store closures and unpredictable demand led to weaker financial results. With less profit being retained in the business, equity naturally declined. In fiscal 2025, however, equity increased and reached its highest level since 2020. This improvement was driven by a strong recovery in earnings, supported by growth in higher-margin areas like direct-to-consumer and international markets. The company also benefited from tighter cost control and better inventory management, which helped strengthen its overall financial position.


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Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins provide a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins provide a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. It is not surprising that the company has delivered a positive free cash flow every year for the past decade. However, there are some years that stand out. Free cash flow was very low in fiscal year 2021, which makes sense because that was the height of the pandemic when many stores were closed and sales were down. Free cash flow was also low in fiscal year 2023, but for different reasons. That year, the company built up more inventory to prepare for future demand, which meant more cash was tied up in products sitting in warehouses. At the same time, it started spending more on store improvements and other investments after holding back during the pandemic. These two factors together reduced the amount of free cash flow available that year. Ralph Lauren delivered record-high free cash flow and free cash flow margin in fiscal years 2024 and 2025 thanks to stronger earnings and smarter use of cash. The company sold more products at full price, especially through its own stores and online channels, which helped improve profit margins. At the same time, it kept a close eye on costs and managed its inventory more efficiently, meaning less money was tied up in unsold goods. It also avoided large one-time investments, which helped keep spending under control. All of this allowed the company to generate more cash from its day-to-day operations and set new records for free cash flow and levered free cash flow margins in back-to-back years. The company uses its free cash flow on both dividends and share repurchases. Hence, shareholders can expect higher returns through dividends and fewer shares outstanding as the company increases its free cash flow. Its free cash flow yield is not as high as it has been in other years, but sitting above 6% it still indicates that the shares are trading at an attractive valuation. However, we will revisit valuation later in the analysis.


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Debt


Another important aspect to consider is the level of debt. It is crucial to determine whether a business has manageable debt that could realistically be repaid within three years. We calculate this by dividing the company’s total long-term debt by its earnings. After doing the calculation for Ralph Lauren Corporation, I found that the company has 1,04 years of earnings in debt. This is well below the three-year threshold, which means debt is not a concern for me if I were to invest in the company. In fact, management has made it clear that maintaining a strong and flexible balance sheet is a priority. This focus has allowed Ralph Lauren to navigate tough market conditions, invest in its long-term goals, and continue returning cash to shareholders, all while protecting and enhancing the value of the brand.


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Risks


Competition is a significant risk for Ralph Lauren because the company operates in multiple categories, apparel, footwear, accessories, fragrances, and home, each filled with well-established players and constant new entrants. Ralph Lauren not only competes with traditional fashion houses and mass-market retailers but also with fast-fashion brands and digital-native companies that can respond quickly to changing consumer tastes. Some of these competitors are significantly larger and have deeper resources, allowing them to spend more on marketing, offer lower prices, or invest more heavily in technology and supply chain improvements. The rise of online shopping has further intensified competition. Ralph Lauren must now compete with brands that sell exclusively through the internet, many of which target younger consumers with direct-to-consumer models and fast product turnover. These brands are often highly effective at using social media, influencer marketing, and data-driven personalization to build loyalty and drive engagement. Keeping up with the speed and creativity of these marketing strategies is an ongoing challenge. Ralph Lauren’s ability to stand out depends heavily on maintaining strong brand recognition, offering high-quality and relevant products, and delivering a consistent experience across both physical and digital channels. That requires constant innovation, not only in design, but in how the company communicates with consumers and manages inventory. If Ralph Lauren falls behind in any of these areas, it risks becoming less relevant in a market where consumer attention spans are short and brand loyalty is fragile. Finally, low barriers to entry in fashion mean that new brands can emerge quickly—often with the help of online platforms—and capture market share without needing a physical retail presence. Even niche players can draw attention and dollars away from more established names by being more targeted or culturally relevant. As a result, even for a brand as iconic as Ralph Lauren, staying ahead of the competition requires continuous investments.


Macroeconomic conditions represent a major risk for Ralph Lauren because the company sells discretionary and often premium-priced products, items that consumers tend to cut back on when economic uncertainty rises. In recent years, management has expressed growing caution about the overall environment, citing challenges such as rising tariffs, inflation, and shifts in consumer behavior. These factors not only affect consumer willingness to spend, particularly in the U.S. and other key markets, but also impact the company’s supply chain, sourcing costs, and pricing strategies. When inflation is high and interest rates rise, consumers often feel pressure on their wallets. Surveys in the U.S., UK, and China—three important markets for Ralph Lauren—have shown declining consumer confidence, which can lead to fewer purchases of clothing, accessories, and other lifestyle products. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts, such as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and trade tensions between the U.S. and countries like China and Vietnam, create more unpredictability. These tensions can result in higher import costs due to tariffs and even shipping delays, especially in areas like the Red Sea. Because Ralph Lauren sells its products around the world, it is affected by global economic conditions. Things like currency swings, new tariffs, or slower growth in certain regions can all impact how much the company earns or how much it costs to get products made and delivered. Even if Ralph Lauren itself remains financially strong, its retail partners or suppliers might face difficulties during tough economic times. If one of them struggles to stay in business or delays payments or shipments, it can affect Ralph Lauren’s ability to sell products smoothly. In other words, problems in the wider financial system can still create disruptions for the company, even if it is not directly to blame. Finally, macro risks extend beyond just economics. They include consumer trends such as a shift in spending toward experiences instead of goods, or a decline in tourism that affects foot traffic in stores located in major cities. Even if Ralph Lauren executes well, a weakened or unstable global environment can still pressure results through no fault of the business itself.


Relying entirely on third-party suppliers creates several layers of risk for Ralph Lauren. The company does not own any manufacturing facilities, so it must depend on outside partners to deliver products on time, in the right quantities, and at the quality levels the brand promises. If any supplier falls short due to equipment issues, labor shortages, political unrest, or local weather events, Ralph Lauren has limited ability to step in, which can lead to delayed shipments, missed product launches, or stockouts during important selling periods. A large share of the company’s products come from a few countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, and China, making it especially sensitive to changing trade policies, new tariffs, or diplomatic tensions. If relationships with these countries worsen, it could raise costs or disrupt the supply of goods, and while Ralph Lauren could shift production elsewhere, doing so would take time and effort. Most suppliers are not exclusive and do not have long-term contracts with the company, which means manufacturers could prioritize larger clients during busy seasons, limiting Ralph Lauren’s ability to quickly scale up production if demand rises. The company also relies heavily on third-party logistics partners to move products between countries, into warehouses, and to stores and customers. Delays caused by port congestion, fuel cost spikes, or labor strikes can increase costs and slow down deliveries. Rising costs for materials and labor can also eat into profit margins, especially if Ralph Lauren cannot raise its prices to keep up without losing customers. Finally, outsourcing makes it harder to monitor working conditions and environmental practices across the supply chain. If any supplier fails to meet the company’s standards, it could hurt Ralph Lauren’s reputation and trigger backlash from regulators or consumers.


Reasons to invest


Strengthening brand loyalty is a reason to invest in Ralph Lauren. The company’s ability to create a strong emotional connection with consumers has helped it evolve from a traditional fashion house into a global lifestyle brand that resonates across age groups, regions, and cultural moments. This deep connection is carefully cultivated through a wide range of marketing initiatives, from fashion shows in Paris, Milan, and Shanghai to large-scale digital activations like Polo Beach on Roblox and high-profile partnerships with the Olympics, Major League Baseball, and other global events. These efforts are not just about visibility but about relevance and engagement. Ralph Lauren positions itself at the intersection of culture, creating experiences that are aspirational yet inclusive, timeless yet modern. That’s why celebrities like Selena Gomez, Gigi Hadid, and Billie Eilish wear the brand across red carpets and world tours, and why consumers continue to respond positively across markets. In fiscal 2025 alone, Ralph Lauren added nearly 6 million new customers to its direct-to-consumer business, a record high, led by younger, female, and less price-sensitive cohorts. Social media reach also continues to expand, now topping 65 million followers across platforms like TikTok, WeChat, and Douyin. In key growth markets like China, the brand’s awareness, desirability, and perception of value have all improved meaningfully, supported by non-promotional activations and storytelling that distinguishes it from competitors. This brand strength has translated into higher pricing power and sustained growth in average unit retail prices. Management has made brand elevation a strategic priority, increasing marketing investment to a record share of revenue while still improving profitability. Unlike many fashion brands that rely heavily on discounting, Ralph Lauren’s focus on full-price selling and long-term engagement has helped support both gross margins and customer loyalty. All of this means Ralph Lauren is not only maintaining relevance in a fast-moving industry, but actively expanding its customer base and deepening relationships in ways that drive sustainable growth and long-term shareholder value.


Ralph Lauren’s product portfolio is a key reason to consider the company as an investment. At its foundation is a broad range of core products that remain the backbone of the business and a consistent source of revenue. These include iconic items like cable-knit sweaters, quilted outerwear, windbreakers, down jackets, and classic Oxford shirts, timeless pieces that customers trust and return to season after season. Even in times of uncertainty, this dependable lineup gives Ralph Lauren stability and strong brand recognition, as consumers are drawn to familiar styles that reflect quality, sophistication, and lasting appeal. Core product sales continue to grow, showing that the company’s essentials are not just relevant but thriving. At the same time, Ralph Lauren is building momentum in higher-growth categories that offer significant long-term potential. Women's apparel, outerwear, and handbags, referred to by management as high-potential categories, have all delivered strong double-digit growth. In women’s, standout items include Polo Bear sweaters, linen dresses, and signature shirting, while outerwear spans both classic styles and newer fashion-forward pieces. The handbag category is particularly promising, with lines like Polo ID and the recently launched Polo Play collection seeing strong consumer response. These categories not only cater to style-conscious consumers but also help the company expand its reach, especially among younger shoppers and in key international markets. This dual focus on reinforcing the core while scaling newer, fast-growing segments has allowed Ralph Lauren to maintain a premium brand image and steadily increase its average unit retail prices. By elevating product quality, tightening discounting, and delivering designs that reflect modern lifestyles, the company is strengthening its competitive position. The diversity and adaptability of its portfolio give Ralph Lauren both resilience and room to grow, supporting its long-term strategy of combining timeless elegance with relevant innovation.


Expanding Ralph Lauren’s physical retail presence through carefully chosen locations is an important part of the company’s long-term growth strategy and a reason to consider it as an investment. Rather than simply adding more stores, Ralph Lauren focuses on building what it calls key city ecosystems, connected networks of flagship stores, partner shops, digital platforms, and selective wholesale partners in the most important fashion and lifestyle hubs around the world. These ecosystems allow the brand to present a fully immersive Ralph Lauren experience, with a consistent message across physical and digital channels. Recent examples include new openings in major cities like San Francisco, Beijing, Cannes, and London, and the strategic acquisition of its global Polo flagship in SoHo, New York. These investments are designed for long-term brand building and are targeted at locations that offer high returns, both financially and in terms of brand visibility. Importantly, the company is shifting away from lower-return department store doors and focusing instead on premium full-price retail where it has greater control over the customer experience. This is especially relevant in underpenetrated regions like Europe and Asia, where new stores have performed above expectations and where Ralph Lauren sees significant room to grow. The results speak for themselves, brick-and-mortar sales have delivered double-digit growth, and the brand is seeing strong customer engagement and higher inventory efficiency through smarter planning and predictive buying. All of this supports the company’s direct-to-consumer strategy, which not only improves margins but also gives Ralph Lauren more control over how its brand is presented and experienced by shoppers around the world.


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Valuation


Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators for free.


The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 11,61, which is from fiscal year 2025. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 9% (Finbox expects EPS to grow by 8,9%). Additionally, I have chosen a projected future P/E ratio of 18, which is twice the growth rate. This decision is based on the fact that the Ralph Lauren Corporation has historically had a higher P/E ratio. Lastly, our minimum acceptable rate of return is already set at 15%. Doing the calculations, we come up with the sticker price (some call it fair value or intrinsic value) of $122,29. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy the Ralph Lauren Corporation at a price of $61,15 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.


The second calculation is known as the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that an owner of a company (or stock) receives on the purchase price of the company is essentially its return on investment. The minimum annual return should be at least 10%, which I calculate as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 1.235, and capital expenditures were 216. I attempted to review their annual report to calculate the proportion of capital expenditures allocated for maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 151 in our calculations. The tax provision was 208. We have 61,8 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (1.235 – 151 + 208) / 61,8 x 10 = $209,06 in Ten Cap price.


The final calculation is referred to as the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With the Ralph Lauren Corporation's free cash flow per share at $16,50 and a growth rate of 9%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is $198,35.


Conclusion


I find the Ralph Lauren Corporation to be an intriguing company, and I appreciate the management team for its deep experience and focus on high-margin businesses. The company has increased its ROIC since the pandemic, reaching its highest level in more than a decade in fiscal year 2025. Free cash flow has also grown significantly over the past two years, with both free cash flow and levered free cash flow margin hitting record highs in fiscal 2025. Competition is a risk because Ralph Lauren operates in crowded markets where established brands and fast-moving digital players compete across multiple categories. Staying relevant requires continuous investment in product innovation, marketing, and digital engagement, especially as younger consumers gravitate toward more responsive, online-first brands. Macroeconomic conditions are another risk, as Ralph Lauren’s products are discretionary and sensitive to shifts in consumer confidence, inflation, interest rates, and broader economic uncertainty. Global issues such as tariffs, geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and slower spending in major markets like the U.S., UK, and China can all affect performance, even if the company itself remains strong. Relying entirely on third-party suppliers adds further risk, as Ralph Lauren has limited control over production and logistics. Concentration in a few sourcing countries, the absence of long-term contracts, and exposure to rising input costs or shipping delays can lead to margin pressure, inventory issues, or brand damage. Strengthening brand loyalty is a reason to invest, as Ralph Lauren has built an emotional connection with consumers through cultural relevance, aspirational campaigns, and consistent storytelling. This has attracted a growing base of younger, premium-oriented customers, supported stronger pricing, and helped drive full-price sales. The product portfolio is also a key strength, blending reliable staples like cable-knit sweaters and Oxford shirts with faster-growing categories such as women’s apparel, outerwear, and handbags. This balance supports steady revenue, brand strength, and long-term expansion. Finally, Ralph Lauren’s selective growth in physical retail through its key city ecosystem strategy is a compelling investment case. By focusing on high-impact locations and controlling the brand experience across channels, the company is delivering strong direct-to-consumer growth, improved margins, and expanding its presence in underpenetrated markets like Europe and Asia. I believe Ralph Lauren is a high-quality business, and buying shares below the Payback Time price of $198 would represent an attractive long-term opportunity.


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