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Brown-Forman: A Premium Spirits Powerhouse

  • Glenn
  • Nov 4, 2023
  • 19 min read

Updated: Jun 30


Brown-Forman is one of the world’s leading spirits companies, best known for iconic brands like Jack Daniel’s, Woodford Reserve, and Herradura. With a strong focus on premiumization, deep global distribution, and a history of disciplined management, the company has built a reputation for long-term value creation. From its expanding ready-to-drink offerings to strategic acquisitions in premium gin and rum, Brown-Forman is positioning itself to stay relevant in a shifting consumer landscape. The question is: Does this whiskey maker belong in your portfolio?


This is not a financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and I only do these post in order to do my own analysis and elaborate about my decisions, especially for my copiers and followers. If you consider investing in any of the ideas I present, you should do your own research or contact a professional financial advisor, as all investing comes with a risk of losing money. You are also more than welcome to copy me. 


For full disclosure, I should mention that I do not own any shares in Brown-Forman at the time of writing this analysis. If you would like to copy or view my portfolio, you can find instructions on how to do so here. If you want to purchase shares or fractional shares of Brown-Forman, you can do so through eToro. eToro is a highly user-friendly platform that allows you to get started on investing with as little as $50.



The Business


Brown-Forman is one of the world’s leading producers of premium distilled spirits. Founded in 1870 in Louisville, Kentucky, and still majority-owned by the Brown family, the company has built a globally recognized portfolio anchored by Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey, the top-selling American whiskey worldwide. Other key brands include Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, Herradura, el Jimador, Diplomático, and Gin Mare. Brown-Forman’s products are sold in over 170 countries, with more than half of its sales coming from outside the United States. The company focuses on the premium and super-premium segments of the market, which tend to enjoy stronger pricing power and brand loyalty. The strength of Brown-Forman’s business lies in the enduring equity of its brands. Jack Daniel’s, in particular, has become a global icon with unmatched authenticity in the whiskey category, which supports pricing resilience even during economic downturns. Beyond Jack Daniel’s, the company’s collection of award-winning super-premium whiskeys and tequilas positions it well in faster-growing segments of the spirits industry. What gives Brown-Forman a competitive moat is the combination of brand strength, global scale, route-to-market control, and vertical integration. Its portfolio of widely recognized and respected brands creates high consumer loyalty and allows for price premiums. The company’s global distribution network, including owned distribution in key countries, gives it strong control over how its products reach consumers and helps secure prominent shelf space in a fragmented and highly competitive industry. This scale also gives Brown-Forman leverage in negotiations and access to insights across markets that smaller competitors lack. Operationally, Brown-Forman owns and operates its distilleries and even its own cooperage, which allows it to control production quality and protect valuable expertise that has been built over generations. This vertical integration strengthens its supply chain and preserves product consistency. The long-term ownership by the Brown family adds further to the moat by supporting a stable strategic direction. The company can invest steadily in brand equity and innovation without being pressured by short-term market expectations.


Management


Lawson Whiting serves as the CEO of Brown-Forman Corporation, a role he assumed in 2019 after more than two decades with the company. Since joining Brown-Forman in 1997, he has held numerous leadership positions across finance, strategy, and brand management, which have given him a deep understanding of the company’s operations, culture, and long-term priorities. Prior to becoming CEO, he served as Chief Operating Officer and Executive Vice President, as well as Chief Brands and Strategy Officer. His broad experience across functions and geographies has made him a key figure in shaping Brown-Forman’s premiumization strategy and global brand development. Lawson Whiting holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Finance from Miami University and an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Under his leadership, Brown-Forman has continued to strengthen its core whiskey portfolio while expanding through innovation and selective acquisitions, including Diplomático rum and Gin Mare. He has also overseen the company’s recent route-to-consumer transformations in key markets and maintained a disciplined capital allocation strategy, including a $400 million share repurchase authorization announced when shares reached a 52-week low. Lawson Whiting’s leadership is deeply aligned with Brown-Forman’s performance-driven and values-based culture. Chairman Campbell P. Brown has noted that Lawson Whiting exemplifies these principles through both his words and actions and praised his many contributions to the company’s continued success. His leadership is also well-regarded internally. On Comparably, he holds an employee approval rating of 79 out of 100, placing him in the top 10% of CEOs at similarly sized companies. While not a highly public figure, Lawson Whiting’s long tenure, operational experience, and strong internal credibility have positioned him as a steady and capable steward of Brown-Forman’s heritage and future. His ability to balance long-term brand equity with responsive, shareholder-friendly decision-making inspires confidence in his continued leadership.


The Numbers


The first number we will look into is the return on invested capital, also known as ROIC. We want to see a 10-year history, with all numbers exceeding 10% in each year. Brown-Forman has managed to achieve above 10% every year for the past decade. Brown-Forman has historically achieved a high ROIC thanks to a combination of brand strength, operational control, and financial discipline. Its portfolio is anchored by premium brands like Jack Daniel’s and Woodford Reserve, which command strong consumer loyalty and allow the company to maintain pricing power. This premium positioning supports strong margins and consistent profitability. The company also benefits from its global scale and well-established distribution network. In many key markets, Brown-Forman owns its own distribution operations, while in others, it works through long-term partnerships. This structure helps reduce costs, improve shelf visibility, and secure favorable retail terms. Another important factor is its vertically integrated production model. By controlling much of the production process, from distillation to barrel-making, Brown-Forman ensures product quality while managing costs more effectively. This operational control helps the company make efficient use of capital and protect its long-standing expertise. In addition, the company’s family-controlled governance encourages long-term thinking and disciplined capital allocation. Rather than chasing short-term gains, Brown-Forman invests steadily in its brands and innovation, which supports lasting returns. Brown-Forman’s return on invested capital has declined in recent years due to a mix of operational challenges, portfolio changes, and broader market pressures. One key factor is the shift in the company’s brand mix. The divestiture of businesses like Finlandia vodka removed profitable, cash-generating products from the portfolio, which reduced overall sales and earnings without a proportional reduction in invested capital. At the same time, the company has faced rising costs for ingredients, packaging, and logistics. These cost pressures have been difficult to pass on fully to consumers, especially in a slower global economy where demand for premium spirits has softened. This has led to lower profit margins, particularly in categories like super-premium whiskey and tequila. ROIC at Brown-Forman is expected to improve gradually over time as macro pressures ease and the benefits of recent cost-saving efforts begin to take effect.



The next numbers are the book value + dividend. In my old format this was known as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used to use in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it moving forward. As you are used to see the numbers in percentage, I have decided to share both the numbers and the percentage growth year over year. To put it simply, equity is the part of the company that belongs to its shareholders – like the portion of a house you truly own after paying off part of the mortgage. Growing equity over time means the company is becoming more valuable for its owners. So, when we track book value plus dividends, we’re essentially looking at how much value is being built for shareholders year after year. Over the past decade, Brown-Forman’s equity has gone through periods of decline followed by a recent rebound. Some of the earlier decreases were due to the sale of certain businesses.  While these divestitures brought in cash, they also removed profitable operations from the balance sheet, which reduced the company’s retained earnings and overall equity. Equity was also impacted by occasional write-downs, including charges related to brand impairments and plant closures. These one-time expenses reduced net income and, in turn, the company’s retained earnings. In fiscal year 2025, equity reached a new all-time high. This was largely driven by the sale of Brown-Forman’s minority stake in the Duckhorn wine business, which resulted in a gain that boosted both net income and cash holdings. At the same time, the company continued to generate solid core earnings despite softer sales, thanks to strong cost control and the ongoing profitability of its premium brands. These factors helped strengthen the company’s retained earnings and contributed to the rise in equity.



Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins provide a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. Brown-Forman’s free cash flow has declined over the past three fiscal years due to a combination of weaker operating performance and increased spending. One major reason is that the company has been investing more heavily in its production facilities, including expanding bourbon capacity and funding sustainability projects. These investments have increased capital expenditures, which directly reduce free cash flow. At the same time, the company’s operating cash flow has come under pressure. Sales have softened due to the sale of certain businesses and weaker demand in some markets, while input costs, such as ingredients, packaging, and logistics, have increased. This combination has squeezed the cash generated from day-to-day operations. The company has also incurred one-time expenses related to recent restructuring efforts. This includes laying off employees, closing a barrel-making facility, and writing down the value of certain assets. These additional costs have further reduced the cash remaining after operations and investments. Altogether, the decline in free cash flow reflects a period of transition for Brown-Forman, shaped by strategic investments, cost pressures, and portfolio adjustments. While these factors have weighed on short-term cash generation, they are expected to support stronger long-term growth and efficiency. Brown-Forman uses its free cash flow to invest in the business, both organically and through acquisitions, while also returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. As free cash flow improves, investors should benefit from higher dividends and fewer shares outstanding. Currently, the free cash flow yield is at its highest level in a decade, suggesting that while the stock may not be cheap, it is trading at one of its most attractive valuations in years. However, we will revisit valuation later in the analysis.



Debt


Another important aspect to consider is the level of debt. It is crucial to determine whether a business has manageable debt that can be repaid within a three-year period. This can be assessed by calculating the ratio of long-term debt to earnings. After performing the calculation for Brown-Forman, I found that the company has a debt-to-earnings ratio of 2,78 years, which is below the three-year threshold. Historically, Brown-Forman has maintained a debt-to-earnings ratio close to three years, and there is no indication that this is likely to change. Therefore, I do not see debt as a concern when evaluating Brown-Forman as an investment, particularly because the company’s stated philosophy is to maintain flexibility and preserve the strength of its balance sheet.


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Risks


Macroeconomic factors is a risk for Brown-Forman. Over the past few years, the company has operated in a highly uncertain and volatile environment shaped by inflation, rising interest rates, and weakening consumer confidence. These pressures have affected both consumer behavior and the broader trade environment across many of Brown-Forman’s key markets. For instance, the company recorded an impairment charge on the Gin Mare brand, reflecting a more pessimistic financial outlook due to deteriorating economic conditions in Europe, where the brand is primarily sold. In Mexico, continued economic challenges contributed to a sharp decline in sales of Herradura and el Jimador tequilas. Similarly, in Asia and the UK, weaker macro conditions and geopolitical uncertainty have led to reduced consumer spending and greater market volatility. In the United States, Brown-Forman has observed a stretched consumer wallet, with spending shifting toward travel and lodging at the expense of discretionary categories like spirits. As a result, the company has acknowledged that spirits in some cases are falling out of the consumer’s shopping basket. This shift in behavior has had a noticeable impact on sales volumes and channel demand. Macroeconomic risk also affects Brown-Forman through trade disruptions, including tariffs and regulatory uncertainty. The company expects the global tariff environment to remain unpredictable, especially in key developed markets. Additionally, American-made spirits have largely remained off shelves in Canada, reducing growth potential in that market. Another cyclical impact comes from the company’s used barrel sales. These barrels, which are typically resold to other producers, have historically seen demand drop during downturns. Brown-Forman expects these sales to decline significantly in fiscal 2026 compared to the prior year. Because used barrels carry high margins, even a modest volume decline can have an outsized impact on overall profitability.


Competition is a risk for Brown-Forman. The company operates in a highly competitive global spirits market where it faces pressure from both large multinational players and smaller craft brands. Key rivals include Diageo, Pernod Ricard, Bacardi, Campari, and Becle, many of which have broader portfolios or greater marketing and financial resources. These competitors are active across Brown-Forman’s core categories, including American whiskey, bourbon, rye, and tequila. In recent years, competition in these categories has intensified. The American whiskey space has seen a wave of new entrants, including independent distillers and sourced whiskey brands, which are gaining traction with consumers. In tequila, Brown-Forman faces aggressive competition from well-funded brands like Jose Cuervo and Patrón. This puts pressure on pricing, marketing spend, and shelf space, all of which can affect sales and profitability. Adding to this pressure is the blurring of category lines. Beer and soft drink companies are increasingly entering the ready-to-drink (RTD) spirits segment by launching their own canned cocktails. These new entrants, often backed by strong retail partnerships and large advertising budgets, introduce more competition in a category that Brown-Forman sees as a growth opportunity. Consolidation among producers, distributors, and retailers has further concentrated market power, making it harder for mid-sized players like Brown-Forman to maintain their influence. If a distributor or major retailer reprioritizes its portfolio or reduces the number of brands it supports, Brown-Forman could lose visibility or sales momentum in key markets.


Changing consumer preferences is a risk for Brown-Forman. Like much of the alcohol industry, Brown-Forman is facing growing pressure from several cultural and behavioral shifts that are reshaping how people - especially younger generations - consume alcohol. One emerging trend is the rise of GLP-1 drugs, such as Ozempic and Wegovy, which were originally developed for diabetes and weight loss. These medications are now being studied for their effect on addictive behaviors, including alcohol consumption. By reducing cravings through changes in brain chemistry, these drugs may lead users to cut back significantly on drinking. If adoption of GLP-1s continues to grow, as current forecasts suggest, it could directly reduce alcohol consumption across key demographics. Cannabis is another factor reshaping the competitive landscape. As legalization expands and cultural acceptance increases, particularly among younger generations, cannabis is increasingly seen as an alternative to alcohol. Gen Z consumers, in particular, are far more likely to use cannabis than previous generations and often prefer it for recreational or relaxation purposes. This shift in consumption patterns is already pulling market share away from traditional alcoholic beverages. In addition, Gen Z is drinking less alcohol overall. This generation has grown up more focused on health, wellness, and balance. Many prefer low- or no-alcohol options, functional drinks, or entirely sober lifestyles. Their behavior is not just a temporary trend, it represents a long-term cultural shift. These consumers are driving demand for non-alcoholic alternatives and expect brands to offer options that align with their values. Although the full impact of these trends is still unfolding, Brown-Forman acknowledges that pressures from GLP-1 use, increased cannabis adoption, and Gen Z’s evolving preferences are real.


Reasons to invest


Premiumization is a reason to invest in Brown-Forman because it aligns directly with both consumer trends and the company’s long-term strategy. As global consumers increasingly favor high-quality, authentic, and craft-focused spirits, Brown-Forman is well-positioned to benefit. The company has built its portfolio around premium and super-premium offerings, and it continues to invest in brands that meet the growing demand for quality over quantity. Woodford Reserve is a strong example of this. It has not only been the largest driver of organic net sales growth for the company but also one of the few top spirits brands in the U.S. showing consistent growth. Its success is fueled by higher volume, strong pricing power, and innovation. The brand is also gaining traction internationally, with strong performance in markets like Japan and Türkiye, reflecting its potential to become a global premium icon. Recent acquisitions like Gin Mare and Diplomático also reflect Brown-Forman’s premiumization strategy. While Gin Mare had a slower-than-expected start, the company remains confident in its long-term potential. Diplomático, meanwhile, has shown strong double-digit growth, especially in Europe and travel retail. As the third-largest super-premium rum globally, it strengthens Brown-Forman’s presence in a fast-growing category and adds to its premium depth. Premiumization is also evident in the tequila portfolio. Herradura, a brand with over 150 years of heritage, continues to grow through its high-end expressions like Reposado and Crystalino. El Jimador, while more accessible, is also moving upmarket with new premium packaging and higher-tier variants. These developments are timely, as tequila is expected to grow significantly in retail value globally, with much of that growth driven by premium segments. Importantly, while the pace of premiumization across the industry has slowed somewhat, consumers have not meaningfully traded down. Brown-Forman’s exposure is concentrated at the higher end of the market, and the company has minimal reliance on lower-priced offerings. This focus helps preserve margins and brand strength even in a more cautious spending environment.


The ready-to-drink (RTD) portfolio is a reason to invest in Brown-Forman because it positions the company to capture one of the fastest-growing segments in the alcohol industry. Consumers, particularly younger generations, are increasingly looking for convenience, portability, and flavor without sacrificing quality, and RTDs meet that demand. Brown-Forman has decades of experience in the RTD space and is now accelerating its growth through both innovation and strategic partnerships. The most notable success has been the global launch of Jack Daniel’s and Coca-Cola RTD, developed in collaboration with The Coca-Cola Company. This product quickly became the most successful launch in Brown-Forman’s history and is being rolled out across new markets following its strong performance. The ability to combine two iconic brands in a convenient format shows how Brown-Forman can leverage its brand equity in new ways. In addition to Jack and Coke, the wider Jack Daniel’s ready-to-drink lineup continues to perform strongly. Products like Jack and Coke Zero and limited-time flavors such as Jack and Coke Cherry, along with variety packs, help keep the brand exciting and relevant, especially during the popular spring and summer months. These new offerings appeal to consumer tastes while also allowing Brown-Forman to charge higher prices, which supports stronger profit margins compared to cheaper malt-based options. Another key growth engine in the RTD portfolio is New Mix, a tequila-based RTD brand that has achieved double-digit organic net sales growth and continues to gain share in Mexico.  Brown-Forman is now expanding New Mix into select U.S. markets, particularly targeting Hispanic consumers with deep cultural ties to the brand. The RTD segment also benefits from global trends toward moderation, on-the-go consumption, and variety-seeking behavior. Brown-Forman’s ability to respond with both scale and brand strength gives it a competitive edge. The company is gaining share in the category, outperforming competitors, and continuing to invest in new flavors, pack formats, and geographic expansion.


Jack Daniel’s is a core reason to invest in Brown-Forman because it represents one of the most valuable and resilient brands in the global spirits industry. With a legacy built on authenticity, craftsmanship, and cultural relevance, Jack Daniel’s has delivered consistent growth over decades, even amid changing consumer trends and broader industry challenges. The brand has achieved a long-term compound annual growth rate of 5% over the past thirty years, reflecting not only its widespread appeal but also Brown-Forman’s ability to evolve the portfolio to meet shifting consumer preferences. From its flagship Tennessee Whiskey to a growing lineup of flavored expressions and premium innovations, Jack Daniel’s reaches a wide range of consumers across price points, regions, and drinking occasions. Strategically, Brown-Forman is leveraging the global rise of American whiskey by accelerating Jack Daniel’s presence in international markets. Countries like Türkiye and Brazil are showing strong double-digit growth, and newer markets continue to gain traction. This global expansion is critical because many international consumers are just beginning to discover American whiskey, giving the brand ample room to grow. Jack Daniel’s also benefits from a carefully managed innovation pipeline. Flavored variants such as Tennessee Honey, Fire, Apple, and the newly launched Blackberry have helped expand the brand’s reach to younger consumers and women. These expressions serve as both accessible entry points and convenient options for mixed drinks, reinforcing the brand’s relevance in casual and social settings. Limited releases, such as the 10-, 12-, and 14-year aged whiskeys, have created excitement among enthusiasts while strengthening the brand's image as a serious whiskey producer. These premium launches not only sell out quickly but generate earned media and buzz that enhance the entire Jack Daniel’s family. Importantly, the pricing environment in American whiskey remains stable. Brown-Forman, along with a few other major producers, commands a large share of the category and has shown pricing discipline, which supports long-term margin stability for the brand.


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Valuation


Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators for free.


The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 1,84, which is from fiscal 2025. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 7%. (management expects between 6-8% growth). Additionally, I have chosen a projected future P/E ratio of 14, which is twice the growth rate. This decision is based on the fact that Brown-Forman has historically had a higher P/E ratio. Lastly, our minimum acceptable rate of return is already set at 15%. Doing the calculations, we come up with the sticker price (some call it fair value or intrinsic value) of $12,53. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy Brown-Forman at a price of $6,26 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.


The second calculation is called the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that an owner of a company (or stock) receives on the purchase price of the company is essentially its return on investment. The return should be at least 10% annually, and I calculate it as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 598 and capital expenditures were 167. I attempted to review their annual report to determine the percentage of capital expenditures allocated for maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 117 in our calculations. The tax provision was 212. We have 472,7 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (598 – 117 + 212) / 472,7 x 10 = $14,66 in Ten Cap price.


The final calculation is called the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With Brown-Forman's Free Cash Flow Per Share at $0,91 and a growth rate of 7%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is $9,99.


Conclusion


I believe Brown-Forman is an intriguing company with a good management. The company has built its moat through brand strength, global scale, route-to-market control, and vertical integration. It has consistently achieved a high ROIC historically, and while ROIC remains above 10%, it has declined over the past three years. Free cash flow has also decreased during this period but is expected to improve going forward. Macroeconomic factors are a risk for Brown-Forman because inflation, rising interest rates, and weakening consumer confidence have reduced demand for premium spirits in key markets. These pressures, along with trade disruptions and softer demand for high-margin products like used barrels, have negatively affected sales and profitability. Competition is also a risk, as Brown-Forman faces pressure from both global spirits giants and agile craft brands across its main categories. Larger competitors with broader portfolios and deeper resources, along with new entrants and cross-category players, threaten its shelf space, pricing power, and market share, especially as industry consolidation concentrates buying and distribution power. Changing consumer preferences are another challenge, with trends like GLP-1 medications, growing cannabis use, and Gen Z’s shift toward low- or no-alcohol and functional beverages all potentially reducing long-term demand. On the positive side, premiumization is a reason to invest because the company is well-aligned with demand for high-quality, authentic spirits and has built a strong portfolio of premium and super-premium brands. With standout performers like Woodford Reserve, growing international momentum, and strategic acquisitions such as Diplomático and Gin Mare, Brown-Forman is positioned to capture long-term growth while maintaining pricing power and healthy margins. The ready-to-drink portfolio is another strength, allowing the company to tap into fast-growing demand for convenience, flavor, and quality. With successful launches like Jack Daniel’s and Coca-Cola RTD and the strong performance of New Mix, Brown-Forman is gaining share in a dynamic category while leveraging its brand equity. Jack Daniel’s itself is a key reason to invest, as it is a globally recognized, resilient brand with decades of consistent growth, strong pricing power, and expanding international reach. There are many things to like about Brown-Forman, but personally I would like to see some improvement in the entire sector before considering an investment. Hence, I will not buy shares in Brown-Forman at this time.


I hope you enjoyed my analysis! While I can’t post about every company I analyze, you can stay updated on my trades by following me on Twitter. I share real-time updates whenever I buy or sell, so if you’re making your own investment decisions, be sure to follow along!


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