The Estée Lauder Companies: Global Prestige Beauty with Enduring Appeal

Estée Lauder Companies is one of the world’s leading players in prestige beauty, with a portfolio that spans skincare, makeup, fragrance, and hair care. From globally recognized heritage brands like Estée Lauder, Clinique, and M·A·C to luxury names such as La Mer, Tom Ford, and Jo Malone London, the company combines decades of brand equity with pricing power and global reach. With growing exposure to e-commerce, social commerce, and high-demand categories like luxury skincare and fragrance, Estée Lauder is positioning itself to capture long-term growth in a competitive and rapidly evolving beauty industry. The question remains: Does this beauty giant deserve a place in your portfolio?

This is not a financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and I only do these post in order to do my own analysis and elaborate about my decisions, especially for my copiers and followers. If you consider investing in any of the ideas I present, you should do your own research or contact a professional financial advisor, as all investing comes with a risk of losing money. You are also more than welcome to copy me

For full disclosure, I should mention that I do not own any shares in Estée Lauder Companies at the time of writing this analysis. If you would like to copy or view my portfolio, you can find instructions on how to do so here. If you want to purchase shares or fractional shares of Estée Lauder Companies, you can do so through eToro. eToro is a highly user-friendly platform that allows you to get started on investing with as little as $50.

The Business

The Estée Lauder Companies is one of the world’s leading manufacturers and marketers of prestige beauty products, with a portfolio of more than 20 brands across skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care. Founded in 1946, the company has grown from a single U.S. brand into a multinational business with distribution in about 150 countries. It operates primarily as a wholesaler, selling through department stores, specialty retailers, perfumeries, pharmacies, salons, spas, and duty-free outlets, while also building a strong direct-to-consumer presence through freestanding brand stores, its own websites, and third-party e-commerce platforms. Its portfolio covers different segments and price points, with core brands like Estée Lauder, Clinique, La Mer, and M·A·C anchoring the business, and acquisitions such as Tom Ford, Jo Malone London, The Ordinary, and Dr.Jart+ expanding into luxury and niche categories. This breadth allows the company to address diverse consumer preferences across both women’s and men’s beauty. The company’s moat is built on the power of its brands, the breadth of its portfolio, its innovation and marketing expertise, its global distribution, and the stability of long-term family control. The strength and heritage of its brands command deep consumer loyalty and pricing power, while the diversified portfolio enables it to serve multiple demographics and withstand weakness in any single brand or category. Estée Lauder also benefits from strong capabilities in innovation and marketing, consistently launching trendsetting products supported by significant advertising and influencer campaigns that keep its brands relevant and aspirational. Its global distribution network is another key advantage, with leading positions in duty-free and travel retail, longstanding retailer relationships, and a fast-growing e-commerce business providing a robust omnichannel presence. Scale further reinforces these strengths, allowing the company to invest heavily in R&D, manufacturing, and sustainability initiatives. Finally, with the Lauder family controlling around 84% of the voting power, the company is able to focus on long-term brand equity and strategic investments rather than short-term pressures. Together, these factors give Estée Lauder a durable moat in the highly competitive beauty industry.

Management

Stéphane de La Faverie serves as the CEO of The Estée Lauder Companies, a role he assumed on January 1, 2025. He brings more than 25 years of experience in the prestige beauty industry and has built a reputation for scaling global brands, deepening consumer engagement, and delivering sustainable growth across categories and geographies. Stéphane de La Faverie joined The Estée Lauder Companies in 2011 and has since held a series of key leadership roles that shaped the company’s growth trajectory. Most recently, he served as Executive Group President, overseeing a portfolio that included Estée Lauder, Jo Malone London, Le Labo, and The Ordinary. As Global Brand President of Estée Lauder from 2016 to 2022, he drove strong growth by broadening the brand’s appeal, strengthening its innovation pipeline, and expanding its footprint in high-potential markets such as China. Earlier in his career, he was the General Manager of Giorgio Armani Beauty USA at L’Oréal, where he successfully elevated the brand’s prestige positioning. He began his career with Lancôme in Paris, where he gained valuable international experience in luxury beauty management. He holds a degree from ESC Bordeaux Business School. Colleagues and industry peers describe Stéphane de La Faverie as a dynamic and empathetic leader, known for balancing strategic foresight with operational excellence. His leadership style emphasizes authenticity, inclusion, and talent development, fostering an environment where teams are empowered to innovate and pursue long-term growth opportunities. Over the course of his career at The Estée Lauder Companies, he has been instrumental in enhancing the company’s fragrance portfolio, integrating disruptive brands such as The Ordinary, and driving cross-category collaboration to accelerate growth. As CEO, Stéphane de La Faverie is expected to build upon The Estée Lauder Companies’ storied legacy while executing its “Beauty Reimagined” strategy. His combination of global experience, brand-building expertise, and commitment to innovation positions him to guide the company through its next chapter as a leader in prestige beauty worldwide.

The Numbers

The first number we will look into is the return on invested capital, also known as ROIC. We want to see a 10-year history, with all numbers exceeding 10% in each year. Estée Lauder has historically delivered a high return on invested capital because the prestige beauty industry is structurally attractive. The company benefits from strong brand equity, pricing power, and relatively asset-light operations. Manufacturing is capital-efficient, marketing is scalable across geographies, and working capital needs are modest relative to sales. This model supported ROIC levels above 20% for many years and remained solid even through the pandemic years of 2020 to 2022, when consumer demand shifted more toward skin care and e-commerce while travel retail temporarily collapsed. The sharp decline in ROIC over the past three years reflects both cyclical and company-specific challenges. The biggest drag has been weak demand in key markets such as China and in global travel retail, which historically were major growth engines and high-margin channels. Inventory buildups and discounting have pressured margins, while investments in marketing, digital, and restructuring have weighed on profitability. At the same time, Estée Lauder has increased its investments through acquisitions such as Tom Ford and DECIEM, as well as ongoing investment in distribution and supply chain modernization. These factors together have depressed returns on invested capital, which reached their lowest point in fiscal 2025. Looking ahead, a recovery in ROIC is plausible, though the pace will depend on execution and market recovery. If China demand stabilizes, travel retail rebounds, and new product launches gain traction, profitability should improve. Efficiency programs under the “Beauty Reimagined” strategy are also aimed at lifting margins and optimizing capital allocation. Management has publicly guided toward a multiyear recovery in growth and margins, which implies that ROIC could climb back toward the mid-to-high teens. However, a return to pre-pandemic levels above 20% will likely take time, as the business mix has shifted and competitive intensity has increased. A normalization toward strong but not record-high returns is the more realistic expectation in the medium term.

The next numbers are the book value + dividend. In my old format this was known as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used to use in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it moving forward. As you are used to see the numbers in percentage, I have decided to share both the numbers and the percentage growth year over year. To put it simply, equity is the part of the company that belongs to its shareholders – like the portion of a house you truly own after paying off part of the mortgage. Growing equity over time means the company is becoming more valuable for its owners. So, when we track book value plus dividends, we’re essentially looking at how much value is being built for shareholders year after year. Estée Lauder’s equity has gone up in some years and down in others because it depends heavily on how profitable the company is, how much it spends on acquisitions, and how its global operations are affected by currency movements. In strong years, when sales and margins grew, equity increased as profits were added to the balance sheet. In weaker years, equity fell because profits were lower, the company took charges to restructure parts of the business, or it booked write-downs on past acquisitions when those brands did not perform as expected. Currency swings have also had an effect since the company earns money in many countries but reports in U.S. dollars. The big decline in fiscal year 2025 was mainly the result of poor operating performance and large write-downs on underperforming assets. Sales and margins came under pressure at the same time the company had to reduce the book value of some of the brands it had acquired in earlier years, and this combination significantly cut into equity. Looking ahead, equity should recover as long as profitability improves and no further major write-downs are needed. If Estée Lauder can stabilize demand in key markets like China, benefit from a rebound in travel retail, and deliver on its “Beauty Reimagined” cost savings and efficiency programs, stronger earnings will flow through to equity and help rebuild the equity over time.

Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins provide a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. Estée Lauder has historically generated healthy free cash flow with margins above 10% in most years, reflecting the strength of its brand portfolio and capital-light business model. The exceptions were fiscal 2023 and fiscal 2025, when free cash flow dropped sharply. In 2023, weaker demand in Asia and travel retail combined with inventory challenges and heavy investment spending weighed on cash generation. In 2025, free cash flow fell to its lowest level in a decade due to a combination of weaker operating performance, lower margins, and unusually high cash outflows for restructuring. The company also continued to invest heavily in consumer-facing initiatives and brand support, while making sizable capital expenditures, though capex has since started to normalize. Looking ahead, free cash flow should improve once the heavy restructuring costs start to fade, day-to-day cash management becomes more efficient, and investment spending returns to a more normal level of about 4% of sales. If sales pick up and profit margins strengthen under the “Beauty Reimagined” strategy, cash generation is likely to grow again, though it may take time before margins climb back above the 10% levels seen in the past. As for how Estée Lauder uses its free cash flow, dividends are a key priority, but the company also allocates cash toward share repurchases, brand acquisitions, capital expenditures for supply chain and consumer-facing investments, and ongoing restructuring designed to streamline the business. The mix can shift year by year, but the overall goal has been to balance shareholder returns with reinvestments that strengthen long-term growth. The free cash flow yield is lower than its 10-year average, but since fiscal year 2025 was an unusually weak year for cash generation, the number does not fully reflect the company’s true potential. We will look at valuation later in the analysis.

Debt

Another important factor to consider is the company’s debt level, and specifically whether it is manageable relative to earnings. A common way to assess this is to calculate how many years it would take to repay long-term debt using current earnings. Since Estée Lauder reported negative earnings in fiscal year 2025, we base the calculation on fiscal year 2024 results. Using those numbers, the company’s debt repayment period comes out to 18,7 years, well above the three-year threshold I usually view as comfortable. This elevated figure reflects two key factors: earnings in fiscal 2024 were relatively weak, and recent acquisitions, including Tom Ford in 2023 and DECIEM in 2024, added to the debt load. Management has signaled its focus on strengthening the balance sheet, demonstrated by the temporary pause in share buybacks to prioritize repayment. While debt is higher than ideal, I do not see it as a deal-breaker for considering an investment in Estée Lauder, especially given the company’s long-term growth potential and strong brand portfolio.

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Risks

Competition is a risk for Estée Lauder because the beauty industry is one of the most crowded and fast-moving consumer sectors. The company competes against large global players like L’Oréal, LVMH, Shiseido, Unilever, and Procter & Gamble, all of which own multiple brands across the same categories of skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care. These rivals often have deep resources, strong retailer relationships, and significant marketing power, which makes it challenging to maintain or grow share. At the same time, Estée Lauder also faces growing pressure from indie brands and digital-native upstarts that capture attention through social media, influencer partnerships, and “clean” or sustainability-focused positioning. These smaller players can scale quickly and appeal to younger consumers in ways that large incumbents sometimes struggle to match. Consumer preferences add to the competitive challenge. Shoppers increasingly care about sustainability, transparency, and personalized experiences. While Estée Lauder has made progress on these fronts, competitors are also advancing rapidly, and any perception that the company lags on eco-friendly practices or digital innovation could erode its appeal. Distribution dynamics also increase risk. Many retailers that sell Estée Lauder products also sell competing brands, and in some cases competitors own stakes in those retailers, which can affect shelf space and promotional visibility. Meanwhile, the decline of department stores and the rise of specialty chains like Sephora and Ulta, as well as direct-to-consumer channels, require constant adaptation. If Estée Lauder does not keep pace with these shifts in how consumers shop, it risks losing relevance. Ultimately, Estée Lauder’s strong brand portfolio and global scale give it important advantages, but the combination of powerful multinationals, fast-moving indie challengers, shifting consumer expectations, and evolving distribution channels makes competition a constant and significant risk to its business.

Macroeconomic factors present a meaningful risk to Estée Lauder because its products are discretionary and often premium-priced. In times of economic downturn, when unemployment rises or disposable income falls, consumers tend to trade down to cheaper brands or delay spending on prestige beauty. This sensitivity was evident in markets like China and Europe, where softening demand recently hurt sales. Inflation and higher interest rates add to the pressure by squeezing household budgets and raising operating costs at the same time. Currency fluctuations are another major issue for a company that generates most of its revenue outside the U.S. A strong dollar reduces reported sales and profit, while also making products more expensive for foreign consumers. Duty-free retail, a historically important growth channel, is especially vulnerable to currency volatility and broader travel trends, which in turn are tied to global economic conditions. Geopolitical and trade-related factors deepen the exposure. Tariffs and sanctions increase costs and can weigh on consumer sentiment in affected regions. Management has already flagged roughly $100 million in annual tariff-related headwinds. The war in Ukraine and tensions in Asia have also reduced tourism and consumer confidence, both of which directly affect Estée Lauder’s travel retail business. Even retailer health matters: in weaker economies, some retail partners face financial difficulties, which can increase credit risk and even force Estée Lauder to repurchase inventory to protect brand equity. Because Estée Lauder has a large international presence and operates across premium categories that are closely linked to consumer sentiment, its performance is especially sensitive to shifts in the global economy.

Asia travel retail is a risk for Estée Lauder because it has historically been one of the company’s most profitable growth engines, particularly in China and hubs like Hainan. That channel has come under heavy pressure. Consumer sentiment in China has weakened, and despite the reopening of travel, shoppers are spending less on prestige beauty. Many consumers are shifting priorities toward experiences or cheaper alternatives, which has reduced basket sizes and slowed growth. In Hainan specifically, beauty market sales have fallen by more than 40%. A further challenge is the regulatory crackdown on Daigou purchasing. Daigou, which means “buying on behalf of,” refers to the practice where individuals purchase products in duty-free locations such as Hainan or overseas markets like Korea and then resell them in mainland China, often at prices below official retail but still profitable. This channel was once a significant driver of demand for Estée Lauder, especially in premium skincare, because it allowed Chinese consumers easier and cheaper access to luxury products. With tighter enforcement, customs checks, and regulations now limiting Daigou activity, this source of demand has largely disappeared, creating another headwind for the company. The financial impact is significant. Travel retail accounted for about 15% of sales in fiscal 2025, down from nearly 30% at its peak during the pandemic. While management has taken steps to rebalance exposure, travel retail remains meaningful, and because it has historically carried high margins, declines weigh disproportionately on profitability. Any prolonged weakness in Asia travel retail, whether from fragile consumer confidence, regulatory hurdles like the Daigou crackdown, or shifts in spending habits, poses a material risk to Estée Lauder’s recovery.

Reasons to invest

Estée Lauder’s brand portfolio is a reason to invest because it is one of the strongest and most diversified collections in global prestige beauty. The company owns a wide range of highly desirable brands, from entry-level names like The Ordinary and Clinique to ultra-luxury labels such as La Mer, Tom Ford, and Jo Malone. This breadth allows Estée Lauder to reach consumers across different demographics, regions, and price points, capturing demand from value-conscious shoppers as well as those seeking the most premium skincare and fragrance products. Several of Estée Lauder’s flagship brands each generate over $1 billion in annual revenue, underscoring the scale and global recognition of the portfolio. Brands such as La Mer, Estée Lauder, and Le Labo have demonstrated strong desirability in key international markets, gaining market share in China and Japan even amid challenging conditions. In the U.S., The Ordinary, Clinique, and Estée Lauder have also driven share gains, highlighting the breadth of the company’s appeal. This mix of established heritage brands and newer growth drivers gives the company both stability and room for expansion. The brand portfolio also provides significant pricing power. With offerings that span multiple tiers of prestige, Estée Lauder can carefully manage pricing to capture value without alienating consumers. The company has embedded low single-digit price increases across its portfolio, while also making selective adjustments, sometimes reducing discounts or even lowering prices on certain products, to reignite growth without undermining its premium positioning. This flexibility allows Estée Lauder to maintain strong profitability while adapting to market conditions and consumer preferences.

Estée Lauder’s innovation pipeline is a reason to invest because the company consistently delivers new products that capture consumer attention, drive sales, and strengthen its position across multiple beauty categories and price tiers. Innovation is not only about keeping brands relevant but also about fueling growth in both established franchises and emerging segments. For example, the Estée Lauder brand’s new Double Wear Concealer ranked as the number 1 prestige makeup launch in the first half of fiscal 2025, while La Mer extended its iconic Treatment Lotion line and achieved consecutive quarters of double-digit growth in China. Clinique and The Ordinary continued to attract younger and more price-sensitive consumers with dermatologist-backed products and accessible pricing. These examples show how the company leverages its portfolio to appeal to a wide range of consumers, from entry prestige to luxury. Innovation also plays a central role in maintaining Estée Lauder’s pricing power and gross margins. Management is prioritizing launches that are not only on-trend but also margin accretive, with a focus on fast-growing areas like longevity science in skincare, viral-friendly products in makeup, and high-demand luxury fragrances. This strategy helps ensure that new launches add value to the business beyond just incremental sales. Importantly, Estée Lauder has accelerated its development cycle: in fiscal 2026, more than 25% of sales are expected to come from new products, with a growing share launched within the past year. That speed allows the company to capture industry trends quickly and sustain consumer excitement across regions and categories. With blockbuster franchises like Advanced Night Repair, M·A·C lip products, and Tom Ford fragrance constantly being refreshed and extended, Estée Lauder shows an ability to keep legacy brands relevant while simultaneously nurturing newer growth drivers. In a beauty market where consumer tastes evolve rapidly, this ability to continuously generate compelling, premium-priced innovation is a key reason the company can defend its market share and deliver long-term growth.

Expanding consumer coverage is a reason to invest because it shows the company’s ability to adapt to where and how beauty consumers shop, broadening its reach and diversifying its revenue base. The company has made rapid progress in online channels, with sales from e-commerce reaching a record 31% of total revenue in fiscal 2025. Partnerships with platforms like Amazon Premium Beauty in the U.S., Canada, and soon the U.K. and Mexico, as well as Tmall, Douyin, Shopee, and TikTok Shop in Asia, allow Estée Lauder to connect with millions of digital-first consumers. These channels are not only driving sales but also acting as brand discovery platforms, re-engaging lapsed consumers and attracting new ones who might not visit department stores. The company has also been strategic in refining its brick-and-mortar footprint. While closing underperforming stores, Estée Lauder has expanded more productive locations, such as new freestanding fragrance boutiques and experiential stores for brands like Le Labo and Jo Malone London. This approach ensures that physical retail continues to play a role in offering high-touch experiences that reinforce brand equity, while shifting the mix toward higher-return opportunities. What makes this consumer coverage strategy compelling is its balance. Department stores, once the backbone of prestige beauty, now account for less than one-third of the business, while e-commerce, specialty multi-retailers, freestanding stores, and travel retail each play important roles in reaching different demographics. This diversification reduces reliance on any one channel and positions the company to capture growth wherever consumer demand emerges. By meeting consumers across digital marketplaces, social commerce platforms, pharmacies, and elevated retail experiences, Estée Lauder is building a more resilient and scalable distribution model. This expansion not only strengthens consumer engagement and loyalty but is also expected to be margin accretive over time.

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Valuation

Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators for free

The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 2,00 which is the target set by management for fiscal year 2026. They expect the EPS to fall within the range of 1,90 to 2,10. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 11% (management expects to double-digit growth). Additionally, I have chosen a projected future P/E ratio of 22, which is twice the growth rate. This decision is based on the fact that Estee Lauder Companies has historically had a higher P/E ratio. Lastly, our minimum acceptable rate of return is already set at 15%. Doing the calculations, we come up with the sticker price (some call it fair value or intrinsic value) of $30,88. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy Estee Lauder Companies at a price of $15,44 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.

The second calculation is known as the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that a company owner (or stockholder) receives on the purchase price of the company essentially represents its return on investment. The minimum annual return should be at least 10%, which I calculate as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 1.272, and capital expenditures were 602. I attempted to analyze their annual report to calculate the percentage of capital expenditures allocated to maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 421 in our calculations. The tax provision was 93. We have 359,8 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (1.272 – 421 + 93 / 359,8 x 10 = $26,24 in Ten Cap price.

The final calculation is called the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With Estee Lauder Companies' Free Cash Flow Per Share at $1,86 and a growth rate of 11%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is $24,48.

Conclusion

I believe Estée Lauder Companies is an intriguing business with capable management that has built its success on the strength of its brands, the breadth of its portfolio, its marketing expertise, global distribution, and the stability provided by long-term family control. The company has faced challenges in recent years, with ROIC falling below 10% for three consecutive years and free cash flow in fiscal 2025 reaching its lowest level in a decade, though both are expected to improve going forward. Competition remains a significant risk in a crowded industry where powerful multinationals and nimble indie brands compete aggressively for consumer attention, and failure to keep pace with shifting preferences, digital innovation, or changing retail channels could erode market share despite Estée Lauder’s strong brand equity. Macroeconomic factors also pose risks, as demand for premium products depends on consumer confidence and disposable income, while the company’s global footprint exposes it to currency swings, inflation, tariffs, and geopolitical pressures that can weigh on sales, margins, and travel retail performance. Asia travel retail in particular is a vulnerability, as hubs like Hainan have seen sharp declines due to weaker Chinese consumer confidence, smaller basket sizes, and the regulatory crackdown on Daigou reselling, and with this channel still accounting for about 15% of sales, continued weakness disproportionately pressures profitability. On the positive side, Estée Lauder’s brand portfolio is a reason to invest, as it combines globally recognized heritage labels with fast-growing newer brands, providing both stability and growth opportunities across different regions, demographics, and price points. The company’s innovation pipeline is another strength, consistently delivering new products that refresh legacy franchises and fuel growth in emerging segments, with more than 25% of sales expected to come from recent launches, supporting both pricing power and market share. Expanding consumer coverage is also encouraging, with the company broadening its reach through e-commerce, social commerce, and specialty retail while refining its physical footprint, creating a more resilient and scalable distribution model. Despite these long-term strengths, the recent underperformance weighs heavily on the numbers in this analysis, and while I see Estée Lauder as a solid company, I personally believe there are better opportunities in the sector and therefore hold shares in L’Oréal instead.

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