Rémy Cointreau: Building Value Through High-End Spirits

Rémy Cointreau is a leading name in the global spirits industry, known for its premium and ultra-premium portfolio of cognac, liqueurs, and single malts. With iconic brands like Rémy Martin, LOUIS XIII, and Cointreau, the company has built a reputation on craftsmanship, heritage, and quality. Its long-term strategy centers on premiumization, international expansion, and disciplined brand management. As it navigates changing consumer habits, macroeconomic pressures, and rising global competition, one question remains: Does this high-end spirits house belong in your portfolio?

This is not a financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and I only do these post in order to do my own analysis and elaborate about my decisions, especially for my copiers and followers. If you consider investing in any of the ideas I present, you should do your own research or contact a professional financial advisor, as all investing comes with a risk of losing money. You are also more than welcome to copy me. 

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The Business

Rémy Cointreau is a French family-controlled spirits group with a legacy stretching back to 1724. Formed through the 1990 merger of Rémy Martin and Cointreau, the group remains majority-owned by the founding Hériard Dubreuil and Cointreau families through the Andromède holding company, which holds approximately 59% of the shares. The company operates through three segments: Cognac, Liqueurs & Spirits, and Partner Brands. Its flagship brand is Rémy Martin, known for producing fine champagne cognac sourced exclusively from the Grande and Petite Champagne crus. This segment accounts for about 62% of total revenue and includes Louis XIII, one of the most prestigious and expensive cognacs in the world. Louis XIII is positioned as an ultra-premium product, often sold for thousands of dollars, and crafted with aged eaux-de-vie over decades. The Liqueurs & Spirits division includes a portfolio of globally recognized brands produced in their countries of origin, such as Cointreau, Mount Gay, St-Rémy, The Botanist, Bruichladdich, and Metaxa. These brands emphasize authenticity, artisanal production methods, and deep cultural heritage. Partner Brands, which Rémy Cointreau distributes in select markets, contribute only marginally to overall sales and are not central to the company’s strategic focus. Rémy Cointreau’s competitive moat lies in the strength and prestige of its brands. Products like Rémy Martin, Louis XIII, and Cointreau enjoy high consumer loyalty, international recognition, and the ability to command premium prices. The company is firmly positioned in the high end of the market, benefiting from long-term global trends toward premiumization and conscious consumption. Its heritage-rich identity, combined with a portfolio of spirits whose character is deeply tied to their place of origin, such as the Grande and Petite Champagne crus for Rémy Martin cognac or the Isle of Islay for The Botanist gin, gives it a defensible edge. These so-called terroir-driven spirits reflect the unique soil, climate, and local know-how of the regions where they are made, enhancing authenticity and reinforcing the brand’s luxury positioning. In an industry where brand equity and storytelling matter more than scale, this connection to place and tradition helps Rémy Cointreau stand apart.

Management

Franck Marilly serves as the CEO of Rémy Cointreau, a role he officially assumed on June 25, 2025, following the departure of Eric Vallat. He brings over three decades of global experience in the luxury and cosmetics industries, with a proven record of brand transformation, innovation, and international leadership. A graduate of EDC Paris Business School, Franck Marilly has spent much of his career developing premium brands across multiple continents, with a particular focus on fragrance, beauty, and fashion. Franck Marilly began his career at Chanel in 1991 before moving to Unilever, where he held senior roles overseeing cosmetics in several European markets. He later returned to Chanel to lead operations in Italy and France, eventually becoming Senior Vice President of U.S. Fashion. From 2010 to 2017, he served as Managing Director of Chanel’s fragrance and beauty business across Europe. Most recently, Franck Marilly served as President and CEO of Shiseido’s Europe, Middle East, and Africa operations, as well as Chairman of its global fragrance division. During his tenure, he oversaw both regional expansion and brand elevation efforts for a portfolio of high-end fragrance labels. In recognition of his international business acumen, he was appointed as a Foreign Trade Adviser of France in February 2025. As CEO of Rémy Cointreau, Franck Marilly is tasked with navigating the group through a period of sales pressure in key markets such as the United States and China, where demand for cognac has softened amid geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions. Cognac represents 62 percent of the company’s total revenue, making market stabilization and renewed brand momentum essential. With deep personal ties to the southwest of France, where the Cognac region is located, Franck Marilly combines a global perspective with a strong cultural connection to the company’s roots. According to Chairwoman Marie-Amélie de Leusse, his leadership is expected to bring a renewed sense of energy and direction to the group, particularly in an increasingly complex macroeconomic environment. With his background in managing heritage-rich luxury brands, proven ability to execute transformation, and deep respect for craftsmanship, Franck Marilly is well-positioned to lead Rémy Cointreau into its next chapter of growth and brand refinement.

The Numbers

The first number we will look into is the return on invested capital, also known as ROIC. We want to see a 10-year history, with all numbers exceeding 10% in each year. Rémy Cointreau’s ROIC has been relatively low for many years, and it has declined further over the past two. This is largely because the company’s business model requires a lot of long-term investment upfront—especially in aging inventory like eaux-de-vie, which is the base for its cognac. These spirits need to mature for many years before they can be sold, which ties up a large amount of capital without generating immediate returns. In recent years, the company continued to increase its investments in inventory and brand infrastructure, even as sales declined, particularly in key markets like China and the U.S. That mismatch between rising investment and falling profits is what caused the drop in ROIC. It’s especially noticeable in the Cognac division, which is Rémy Cointreau’s largest and most capital-intensive business. While other parts of the business performed more steadily, they’re not large enough to offset the impact. Another reason for the low ROIC is that Rémy Cointreau had signed multiyear contracts to buy raw materials from suppliers during the strong demand years. As those contracts are just now ending, the company has only recently started reducing its purchases. The full benefit of this shift, meaning lower inventory levels and better returns on capital, won’t show up until sometime in 2026. Management is aware of the issue and has started taking steps to reduce investment spending where possible, without compromising the company’s long-term strategy. They have said they plan to improve free cash flow and focus more on capital efficiency going forward. So while the decline in ROIC isn’t ideal, it reflects a deliberate long-term strategy that depends on high-end positioning and aging inventory. If demand picks up again, especially in the company’s core markets, ROIC should improve.

The next numbers are the book value + dividend. In my old format this was known as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used to use in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it moving forward. As you are used to see the numbers in percentage, I have decided to share both the numbers and the percentage growth year over year. To put it simply, equity is the part of the company that belongs to its shareholders – like the portion of a house you truly own after paying off part of the mortgage. Growing equity over time means the company is becoming more valuable for its owners. So, when we track book value plus dividends, we’re essentially looking at how much value is being built for shareholders year after year. Rémy Cointreau has managed to increase its equity almost every year over the past decade, reaching its highest level ever in fiscal year 2025, due to a combination of strong underlying profitability, disciplined capital allocation, and retained earnings. Even in years when revenue or profit growth slowed, the company has remained consistently profitable, thanks in large part to the strength of its premium brand portfolio. High-margin products like Louis XIII, Rémy Martin, and Cointreau generate solid cash flows, and Rémy Cointreau typically returns only a portion of those profits to shareholders in the form of dividends. The rest is retained within the company, steadily building up equity over time. Another reason equity has increased is that Rémy Cointreau manages its finances carefully. The company hasn’t taken on too much debt, and in recent years it has worked to reduce the debt it does have. This has strengthened its overall financial position. At the same time, the value of its inventory, especially aging eaux-de-vie used to make cognac, has steadily gone up.

Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins provide a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. Rémy Cointreau’s free cash flow has been quite volatile over the past decade due to the nature of its business. The company produces high-end spirits like cognac, which need to age for years before they can be sold. This means Rémy often spends large amounts upfront, buying young eaux-de-vie and investing in production, without seeing immediate returns. So even when the underlying business is healthy, the timing of these investments can cause free cash flow to swing significantly from year to year. In strong years, such as during the COVID boom, profits were high and inventory spending was still moderate, resulting in unusually strong free cash flow. But as the company ramped up inventory purchases to prepare for future demand, cash flow declined again. In fiscal 2025, free cash flow remained weak due to a sharp drop in profits, mainly caused by lower sales in China and the U.S., while the company continued investing for the long term. Some short-term factors helped, including lower tax payments, reduced capital spending, and early signs of improvement in how the company manages working capital. Still, these positives weren’t enough to offset the hit from weaker earnings. This kind of fluctuation is normal for Rémy Cointreau’s business. Management has said that in more stable times, they expect levered free cash flow margins to land in the 15 to 20 percent range. They don’t expect to reach that level in the near term, especially if trade tensions persist, but believe it’s a realistic long-term goal once demand recovers and investment levels normalize. The company pays an annual dividend, and the current payout ratio is around 60 percent. That means shareholders can expect rising dividends over time as free cash flow improves. The free cash flow yield is currently low, which would usually suggest that the stock is expensive. However, given the unusually low free cash flow in fiscal 2025, that conclusion may not hold. We will revisit valuation later in the analysis.

Debt

Another important factor to consider is debt. It's crucial to assess whether a company can repay its debt within three years, which I calculate by dividing total long-term debt by earnings. Rémy Cointreau currently has the equivalent of 4,4 years of earnings in debt, which is above the three-year threshold I generally consider manageable. Rémy Cointreau’s debt increased in fiscal 2025, mainly because the company raised €380 million through a long-term bond. This bond has a fixed interest rate and will be repaid over 10 years, which gives the company financial stability and time to generate returns on its investments. As a way to manage its cash, the company also reduced its dividend payment last year. The higher debt is not a major concern at this point. Much of the money has been used to invest in valuable inventory, especially aging eaux-de-vie, that takes years to mature but will eventually be sold at high prices. This inventory holds significant future value and helps support the company’s ability to repay its debt over time. In other words, the increase in debt is part of a long-term strategy, not a sign of financial trouble.

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Risks

Competition is a risk for Rémy Cointreau. The global spirits market is highly competitive, with a growing number of both international and local players. This crowded landscape makes it harder for Rémy Cointreau to maintain shelf space, pricing power, and visibility, especially as the industry trends toward consolidation. When larger competitors merge or scale up, they benefit from lower costs, wider distribution, and stronger bargaining power. Rémy Cointreau, being relatively smaller, may find it harder to negotiate favorable terms with distributors and retailers, which could limit its reach in key markets. This challenge is made worse by consolidation in the distribution sector. Bigger distributors now have more leverage and may push for lower prices or prioritize larger suppliers. In some cases, Rémy Cointreau’s products could even be delisted in favor of higher-volume or more profitable alternatives, directly impacting sales. Another competitive risk is changing consumer preferences. In key markets like the United States, there has been rapid growth in demand for ready-to-drink (RTD) beverages, such as canned cocktails. Rémy Cointreau does not currently compete in this space, leaving it vulnerable to losing market share to more adaptable rivals. This is particularly concerning as the RTD trend attracts a younger demographic, which could weaken the company’s long-term brand relevance. The lines between categories are also starting to blur. Beer and soft drink companies are increasingly launching alcoholic RTD products, using their strong retail relationships and marketing budgets to gain quick traction. These new entrants introduce even more competition, not just from traditional spirits brands but also from companies outside the category that can move quickly and spend heavily on promotion.

Macroeconomic factors are a significant risk for Rémy Cointreau, as they affect both global consumer behavior and the company’s ability to operate efficiently. One of the biggest challenges has been the shift in consumption patterns since the COVID period. During the pandemic, sales of premium spirits like cognac surged, especially in markets like the U.S., where consumers were spending more on luxury goods at home. But that demand has since cooled, and what management describes as a “normalization” has set in. In practice, this means consumers are becoming more price-sensitive, shifting toward value brands, and buying less frequently, all of which hurts Rémy Cointreau, whose portfolio is focused entirely on the premium and ultra-premium segments. High inflation adds to this pressure by reducing consumers’ purchasing power. As prices rise across the board, people are more cautious with discretionary spending, and the spirits market has become more promotional. This environment forces companies like Rémy Cointreau to choose between protecting margins and defending market share, often with no easy solution. At the same time, higher interest rates are affecting the company’s distribution network. Distributors now face higher financing costs, which has led many of them to reduce the amount of inventory they hold. This inventory destocking means fewer orders for Rémy Cointreau, even if end-consumer demand remains steady. The result is slower sales and pressure on profits as products move more slowly through the supply chain. Geopolitical tensions make these challenges even more complicated. With significant exposure to international markets, Rémy Cointreau is vulnerable to trade disputes, tariffs, and protectionist policies—particularly between major economies like the U.S., China, and the European Union. Cognac is a protected designation of origin, meaning it can only be produced in Cognac, France. This gives the product its identity but also makes the company more exposed to trade barriers, since production cannot be shifted elsewhere. In recent years, European spirits, especially French cognac, have been directly targeted in trade tensions, making Rémy Cointreau one of the more vulnerable players in the industry.

Changing consumer preferences are a growing risk for Rémy Cointreau, as long-term cultural and behavioral shifts begin to challenge the foundations of its traditional business model. The company is heavily focused on premium spirits like cognac and liqueurs, which rely on strong demand for high-alcohol, celebratory products. However, consumer habits, especially among younger generations, are moving in a different direction. One of the most disruptive developments is the rise of GLP-1 drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy. Originally designed for diabetes and weight loss, these medications are now being studied for their effects on addictive behaviors, including alcohol consumption. Many users report reduced cravings for alcohol, and early research suggests these drugs may have a direct dampening effect on the desire to drink. If GLP-1 use becomes widespread, it could lead to a broad and lasting decline in alcohol consumption. At the same time, cannabis use is rising, particularly among younger generations like Gen Z. As cannabis becomes more legal and socially accepted, it’s increasingly seen as a substitute for alcohol, especially for relaxation and socializing. Gen Z is already drinking less than previous generations, and they’re more likely to use cannabis instead of alcohol in various settings. This generation also brings new values to the table. Many younger consumers prioritize health, wellness, and balance in their lifestyles. They are gravitating toward low-alcohol or alcohol-free beverages and are more likely to embrace sober or “sober-curious” lifestyles. They are also drawn to functional drinks, products that offer a feeling of relaxation or social ease without the downsides of alcohol. For Rémy Cointreau, whose core brands are positioned in the traditional spirits category, these changes present a clear challenge. If the company fails to respond to evolving consumer demands, whether through innovation, new product formats, or broader brand messaging—it risks losing relevance with future generations of drinkers.

Reasons to invest

Restocking in the U.S. is a key reason to consider investing in Rémy Cointreau, as it suggests that the company’s largest and most important market may be on the verge of a meaningful recovery. Over the past few years, distributors in the U.S. have significantly reduced the amount of Rémy Cointreau products they keep in stock. This was due to several factors, including weaker consumer demand, rising interest rates, and the high cost of holding inventory. As a result, fewer orders were placed with Rémy, even though some consumer demand remained. Now, the situation appears to be changing. Inventory levels in the U.S. have fallen to what management describes as very low, even below pre-pandemic norms. This sets the stage for what is known as a restocking phase, where distributors begin placing larger orders to rebuild their inventory. Management expects this restocking to happen in two steps. First, a technical rebound in orders as trade partners correct their inventory levels. Then, over time, a recovery in consumer purchases, supported by stronger brand activity and more competitive pricing. Although consumer sales in the U.S. have not fully recovered yet, recent trends show improvement. Sales declines are slowing, and certain products like VSOP are beginning to stabilize. Rémy has also made targeted pricing adjustments, especially on smaller bottle formats, to make its products more accessible without sacrificing brand value. The company believes this restocking effect will be a major driver of growth in the near future. Even if consumer demand takes longer to fully bounce back, the act of rebuilding inventory alone could lift revenues meaningfully. Given that the U.S. is such an important market for Rémy Cointreau, this potential recovery is not just a short-term boost, but a signal that the most difficult phase may be behind them.

Premiumization is a strong reason to invest in Rémy Cointreau because the company is perfectly aligned with a long-term global trend: people are drinking less, but choosing better-quality products. Across the spirits industry, consumers, especially younger ones, are showing more interest in craftsmanship, authenticity, and sustainability. Instead of prioritizing volume or low prices, they are seeking meaningful brands that reflect their values and offer a sense of experience and quality. Rémy Cointreau has deliberately positioned itself at the high end of the market. Since 2015, it has focused exclusively on premium and ultra-premium spirits, selling off brands that didn’t fit this vision. Its goal is not to compete on volume but to increase the value per bottle sold, with a long-term ambition of becoming the global leader in exceptional spirits. This strategy has already resulted in higher gross margins, stronger brand equity, and a portfolio with one of the highest average values per case in the entire industry. The company’s cognac brands, Rémy Martin, LOUIS XIII, and Brillet, are made from eaux-de-vie sourced in the most prestigious regions of Cognac and aged over many years. These products are designed for a discerning audience and command premium pricing. Even in periods of slower growth, Rémy Cointreau has maintained pricing discipline and avoided discounting, reinforcing the luxury perception of its brands. But the strategy goes beyond cognac. The company is also building up a strong portfolio of high-end spirits across other categories. Cointreau has benefited from the global growth of cocktail culture, especially the margarita, and continues to gain market share. The Botanist gin, Bruichladdich single malt whiskies, Metaxa, and Mount Gay rum all bring authenticity, origin, and craft to the table, key traits that resonate with modern consumers. This focus on quality gives Rémy Cointreau a competitive edge. High-end spirits have grown faster than the broader market for more than a decade and are expected to keep outperforming.

Emerging markets represent a compelling long-term growth opportunity for Rémy Cointreau as rising incomes, changing lifestyles, and evolving consumer preferences create increasing demand for premium spirits. While the company already generates the majority of its sales outside of France, many emerging markets remain underpenetrated, offering significant room to expand its high-end portfolio. China remains a core growth driver. Despite recent macroeconomic challenges, Rémy Cointreau has continued to gain market share, particularly with products like Rémy Martin CLUB, which has been a strong performer thanks to tailored packaging, product innovation, and a well-executed e-commerce strategy. While cognac is still a relatively small part of total alcohol consumption in China, the category is seen as highly desirable, and Rémy Martin ranks as the second-most preferred cognac brand in the market. Given that imported spirits still make up a very small share of overall spirits consumption in China, the long-term potential remains significant. The company is also expanding beyond its stronghold in Guangdong to other regions such as Fujian and the Southwest, aiming for faster growth in areas where it has been less present. India offers another exciting, though more long-term, opportunity. The country’s large and growing middle class is becoming increasingly interested in premium international products. While regulatory complexity and distribution hurdles remain, Rémy Cointreau is laying the groundwork through brand awareness, product launches tied to local festivals, and preparation for improved market access as tariffs are expected to decline. India’s young, aspirational population makes it an ideal future market for brands like The Botanist and Rémy Martin. The Middle East is also becoming more attractive. Tax reductions in places like Dubai and Abu Dhabi, along with the expected opening of casinos, are driving greater demand for luxury spirits in hospitality and duty-free channels. Market liberalization in Saudi Arabia could further open the door to new consumers who are eager to discover high-end international brands. Latin America is beginning to contribute as well, with recent growth in countries like Mexico, Brazil, and the Dominican Republic. While volumes are still modest, Rémy Cointreau is seeing encouraging traction with brands such as Cointreau and Rémy Martin. Finally, Africa is on the radar as a longer-term opportunity. With demographic growth and rising incomes in key urban centers, Rémy Cointreau is starting to invest in local launches and market development, laying the foundation for future expansion.

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Valuation

Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators for free.

The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 2,34, which is from fiscal year 2025. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 11%. Finbox expects EPS to grow by 10,7% in the next five years. Additionally, I have selected a projected future P/E ratio of 22, which is twice the growth rate. This decision is based on Rémy Cointreau's historically higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Finally, our minimum acceptable rate of return has already been established at 15%. After performing the calculations, we determined the sticker price (also known as fair value or intrinsic value) to be €36,13. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy Rémy Cointreau at a price of €18,07 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.

The second calculation is known as the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that a company owner (or stockholder) receives on the purchase price of the company essentially represents its return on investment. The minimum annual return should be at least 10%, which I calculate as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 70, and capital expenditures were 51. I attempted to analyze their annual report to calculate the percentage of capital expenditures allocated to maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 36 in our calculations. The tax provision was 48. We have 51,85 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (70 – 36 + 48) / 51,85 x 10 = €15,83 in Ten Cap price.

The final calculation is called the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With Rémy Cointreau's Free Cash Flow Per Share at €2,03 and a growth rate of 11%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is €26,72.

Conclusion

I believe Rémy Cointreau is an intriguing company with capable management. It has built a moat through the strength and prestige of its brands. While the company has historically delivered a low return on invested capital and experienced volatile free cash flow, this reflects the nature of the business rather than poor execution, so it isn’t something that concerns me. Competition is a risk because the spirits industry is becoming increasingly crowded and consolidated, giving larger players more leverage in pricing and distribution. The growing popularity of ready-to-drink products and new entrants from outside the traditional spirits sector is also shifting consumer behavior, making it harder for Rémy Cointreau to defend market share, particularly among younger drinkers. Macroeconomic conditions are another risk, as inflation, tighter household budgets, and high interest rates are reducing demand for premium spirits while prompting distributors to cut back on inventory. The company is also vulnerable to trade tensions and tariffs, especially in important markets like the U.S. and China. Changing consumer preferences add further pressure, with younger generations drinking less alcohol, favoring cannabis, and seeking low- or no-alcohol alternatives. The rising use of GLP-1 drugs and broader wellness trends may reduce long-term demand for high-alcohol products, potentially challenging Rémy Cointreau’s premium-focused portfolio. On the upside, restocking in the U.S. is a key reason to consider the stock, as distributors begin rebuilding inventories after an extended drawdown. This could lift revenues even before a full recovery in consumer demand, which is important given the U.S. is Rémy Cointreau’s largest market. Premiumization is another positive, as the company is well-aligned with the global trend toward drinking less but better, focusing on high-quality, craft spirits that appeal to modern consumers. Its exclusive focus on premium and ultra-premium brands has supported pricing power, margins, and long-term brand equity. Emerging markets also offer strong potential, with rising incomes and evolving tastes driving demand for luxury spirits in underpenetrated regions like China, India, the Middle East, and Latin America. Rémy Cointreau is gaining ground through targeted investments and innovation, laying the foundation for long-term growth outside mature Western markets. Valuing the company is difficult due to its large inventory, which stood at over two billion euros at the end of fiscal 2025, so the estimates in this analysis may not fully reflect its true worth. And while Rémy Cointreau would likely be my top pick if I were to invest in the spirits sector, I am not currently interested in owning a spirits company, so I will not be buying shares at this time.

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