Pernod Ricard: A Premium Bet on Global Spirits

Pernod Ricard is one of the world’s leading spirits companies, with a portfolio that spans iconic global brands such as Absolut, Jameson, Chivas Regal, Martell, and Beefeater, alongside fast-growing names like Kahlúa and Bumbu. From cognac and whiskey to vodka, rum, and champagne, the company combines centuries of heritage with a strategy focused on premiumization, innovation, and expansion in emerging markets. With India now its second-largest market, strong positions in China, and growing exposure across Africa and Latin America, Pernod Ricard is building a global growth platform while staying rooted in craftsmanship and brand equity. The question is: Does this spirits giant deserve a place in your portfolio?

This is not a financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and I only do these post in order to do my own analysis and elaborate about my decisions, especially for my copiers and followers. If you consider investing in any of the ideas I present, you should do your own research or contact a professional financial advisor, as all investing comes with a risk of losing money. You are also more than welcome to copy me. 

For full disclosure, I should mention that I do not own any shares in Pernod Ricard at the time of writing this analysis. If you would like to copy or view my portfolio, you can find instructions on how to do so here. If you want to purchase shares or fractional shares of Pernod Ricard, you can do so through eToro. eToro is a highly user-friendly platform that allows you to get started on investing with as little as $50.

The Business

Pernod Ricard is a French multinational and one of the world’s largest producers and distributors of wines and spirits. The company was formed in 1975 through the merger of Pernod and Ricard, but its roots trace back to 1805 with the founding of Pernod. Today it owns a portfolio of more than 200 brands distributed in over 160 countries, covering virtually every major spirits category including whiskey such as Jameson, Chivas Regal, The Glenlivet and Ballantine’s, cognac and brandy such as Martell and Ricard, vodka such as Absolut, gin such as Beefeater and Monkey 47, rum such as Havana Club and Malibu, liqueurs and bitters such as Kahlúa, Ramazzotti and Lillet, champagne and sparkling wine such as Mumm and Perrier-Jouët, tequila and mezcal such as Olmeca, Altos and Del Maguey, as well as a growing portfolio of non-alcoholic alternatives. Pernod Ricard runs its business in a way that takes advantage of both its global size and its closeness to local markets. The company’s Brand Companies focus on building long-term strategies and managing production, while its Market Companies work directly with consumers, quickly adjusting to changes in local tastes and trends. By being present in 60 markets and supported by a strong distribution network, Pernod Ricard is able to follow global demand while keeping the unique identity and traditions of each of its brands. Pernod Ricard’s moat lies in the breadth, heritage, and strength of its brand portfolio. With 18 of the world’s top 100 spirits brands, the company commands consumer recognition and loyalty across multiple categories. Many of its brands have centuries-old legacies, offering authenticity and cultural resonance, while newer labels broaden its appeal to modern consumers. This combination enables Pernod Ricard to serve different demographics and occasions, creating a unique depth of choice for distributors and consumers alike. Pernod Ricard’s wide range of products makes the company more resilient. While smaller rivals often depend on just one type of spirit, Pernod Ricard is balanced across many categories like whiskey, vodka, cognac, rum, gin, champagne, and tequila. Its global reach gives it cost and marketing advantages, while its local teams keep the company flexible and able to quickly respond to changing consumer tastes in different markets. Ultimately, the moat is reinforced by the company’s long-term focus on brand building. Pernod Ricard invests heavily in marketing and storytelling, creating strong emotional connections that drive repeat purchases and premiumization. This brand equity is difficult to replicate, giving the company a durable competitive position in an industry where consumer trust and heritage matter as much as taste.

Management

Alexandre Ricard serves as the Chairman and CEO of Pernod Ricard, a position he has held since 2015. He joined the company in 2003 and over the following decade took on a variety of leadership roles across markets and functions, gaining deep experience in finance, marketing, and operations before assuming the top position. Prior to joining Pernod Ricard, Alexandre Ricard worked at Accenture and Morgan Stanley, building a foundation in consulting and investment banking that complemented his later career in the spirits industry. Alexandre Ricard is a graduate of ESCP, the Wharton School of Business, where he earned an MBA in finance and entrepreneurship, and the University of Pennsylvania, where he completed a Master’s degree in International Studies. He is also the grandson of Paul Ricard, the founder of Société Ricard, and has been closely connected to the company from an early age. His formative experiences included visiting stores with his grandfather, which instilled in him a deep appreciation for the family’s entrepreneurial spirit and commitment to brand building. Throughout his tenure, Alexandre Ricard has emphasized brand equity, premiumization, and innovation as the pillars of Pernod Ricard’s growth strategy. He has guided the group through significant investments in digital transformation and sustainability, while also steering it toward greater agility through organizational simplification and a closer connection to consumers in local markets. Under his leadership, the company has reinforced its position as one of the world’s leading spirits producers, with a broad and balanced portfolio that spans whiskey, vodka, cognac, rum, gin, champagne, tequila, and more. Alexandre Ricard is widely described as calm, reserved, and internationally minded. He is fluent in several languages and is known for his collaborative leadership style, strong sense of responsibility, and loyalty to the values passed down through his family. His approach combines a deep respect for Pernod Ricard’s heritage with a clear focus on modernizing the group to meet the demands of an evolving global consumer base. Given his extensive experience, personal connection to the company, and proven ability to balance tradition with innovation, Alexandre Ricard is well-positioned to continue leading Pernod Ricard in its mission to build iconic brands, strengthen consumer loyalty, and capture growth opportunities across global markets.

The Numbers

The first number we will look into is the return on invested capital, also known as ROIC. We want to see a 10-year history, with all numbers exceeding 10% in each year. Pernod Ricard’s ROIC has stayed below 10 % for years because the business requires a lot of capital. It owns a very large global portfolio of brands, invests heavily in marketing and inventories, and also carries quite a bit of debt. All of this makes the amount of invested capital big, so even with healthy profits, the returns on that capital look relatively low. This is not necessarily a red flag. What matters is whether the return is above the company’s cost of capital, and Pernod Ricard’s ROIC is still comfortably higher than that. It means the company continues to create value, just not at the very high levels seen in other industries with lighter capital needs. In fiscal year 2025, ROIC dropped to its lowest level since 2021 mainly because profits came under pressure while capital spending stayed high. Sales fell in key markets like the US and China, foreign exchange movements cut into earnings, and the company continued to spend heavily on brands, inventories, and restructuring. As a result, the “returns” part of the equation went down while the “capital invested” part went up, which pushed ROIC lower. So the low ROIC is more a reflection of the type of industry Pernod Ricard operates in and the investments it makes to support long-term growth, rather than a sign of immediate weakness. Looking ahead, ROIC is expected to improve. Pernod Ricard has already made many of its largest investments, and as those begin to generate returns while future spending slows, the balance should shift more favorably. At the same time, cost savings from its restructuring program and its focus on premium brands are likely to lift margins. Together, these factors should allow ROIC to trend upward from the fiscal 2025 low point.

The next numbers are the book value + dividend. In my old format this was known as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used to use in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it moving forward. As you are used to see the numbers in percentage, I have decided to share both the numbers and the percentage growth year over year. To put it simply, equity is the part of the company that belongs to its shareholders – like the portion of a house you truly own after paying off part of the mortgage. Growing equity over time means the company is becoming more valuable for its owners. So, when we track book value plus dividends, we’re essentially looking at how much value is being built for shareholders year after year. Pernod Ricard has grown its equity in most years over the past decade because the business is consistently profitable and reinvests a share of its earnings into the company. Strong cash generation from its broad portfolio of spirits, combined with disciplined capital allocation, has supported steady growth in book value. There were only two exceptions. In fiscal year 2020, equity declined mainly because of the pandemic. Sales and profits dropped as bars, restaurants, and travel retail shut down. In fiscal year 2025, equity fell again. This time the decline was not caused by a collapse in profitability but by weaker earnings combined with significant negative foreign exchange effects, which reduced the euro value of the company’s international assets and equity. This is not something to be overly concerned about. The balance sheet remains solid, and the dip in 2025 reflects temporary conditions rather than a structural weakness. Looking ahead, equity is expected to increase again as profits recover, cost savings materialize, and capital spending normalizes, allowing retained earnings to once more outpace external pressures.

Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins provide a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. Pernod Ricard’s free cash flow increased in fiscal year 2025 because the company became more efficient with its cash. It reduced the amount of money tied up in inventories and slowed down its spending on new factories and equipment after several years of heavy investment. This meant more of the cash generated from its business was left over after covering expenses and investments. Even so, free cash flow is still below the higher levels seen earlier in the decade. That is because the company is still finishing a cycle of large investments to expand production capacity and build up inventories of spirits for future sales. These projects required a lot of cash up front, which temporarily held free cash flow back. Looking ahead, free cash flow and free cash flow margin are expected to rise. Spending on new projects and inventory will continue to come down, and the company is aiming to become even more efficient, with a goal of turning about 80% of its operating profit into cash. This should allow free cash flow to steadily increase in the coming years. Pernod Ricard uses its free cash flow mainly to invest in its brands and production, make selective acquisitions, and pay dividends, which are typically about half of its recurring net profit. Share buybacks are only considered once those priorities are met. So while free cash flow is not yet back to its historical highs, it is moving in the right direction, and the company expects stronger cash generation to support both growth and shareholder returns in the future. The free cash flow yield is at its highest level in more than a decade, which suggests that the shares are trading at a more attractive valuation than they have done in a long time. However, we will revisit valuation later in the analysis.

Debt

Another important factor to consider is debt. It is useful to assess whether a business could repay its debt within three years, by dividing total long-term debt by earnings. Pernod Ricard currently has 6,4 years of earnings in debt, which is significantly higher than I would prefer. At the end of fiscal year 2025, Pernod Ricard’s debt was a bit lower than the year before, thanks to better control of inventory and small disposals. But because profits fell, the company’s debt ratio rose. In simple terms, even though the debt itself went down slightly, it now looks heavier compared to the company’s reduced earnings. Whether this is a big concern depends on perspective. The positive side is that Pernod Ricard brings in steady cash, so it can handle its debt payments without trouble, and management is careful about keeping finances under control. The downside is that the debt level reduces flexibility, so if profits fall more or borrowing costs stay high, the company would have less room to maneuver. Looking ahead, the situation should improve. Investment spending has already started to come down from its 2024 peak, which, together with stronger free cash flow and a recovery in earnings, should gradually reduce debt and bring the debt-to-earnings ratio back to more comfortable levels.

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Risks

Competition is a risk for Pernod Ricard because the global spirits market is both crowded and constantly evolving. The company competes with other large international players, smaller local producers, and increasingly with companies outside the spirits category altogether. This makes it harder to defend shelf space, pricing power, and brand visibility across markets. Industry consolidation adds to the challenge. When competitors merge or scale up, they can benefit from lower costs, wider distribution, and stronger bargaining power. At the same time, consolidation among distributors gives retailers more leverage to demand lower prices or prioritize higher-volume suppliers. In some cases, this could even lead to Pernod Ricard’s products being delisted, directly hurting sales. Another growing source of competition comes from beer and soft drink companies entering the alcoholic ready-to-drink market. These firms already have strong retail relationships and massive marketing budgets, which allow them to quickly capture consumer attention and win shelf space. This forces spirits companies like Pernod Ricard to respond with heavier advertising and promotions, which can erode margins. The rise of e-commerce is also reshaping the competitive landscape. Online platforms often favor brands that spend aggressively on promotions and discounts, which may push Pernod Ricard to be more price-competitive, again putting pressure on margins. Meanwhile, in many markets, smaller craft brands continue to gain popularity, appealing to consumers who want unique or local offerings rather than global labels. Taken together, these pressures threaten Pernod Ricard’s traditional premium positioning. The risks include losing market share to both global giants and local challengers, facing higher marketing costs, and experiencing margin erosion. Over time, this could undermine the company’s ability to maintain the strong brand equity that underpins its business model.

Macroeconomic factors are a risk for Pernod Ricard because they directly affect both consumer demand and the company’s ability to sell and distribute its products efficiently. During the COVID period, premium spirits enjoyed a strong boost as consumers spent more on luxury goods at home, but that surge has since faded. Demand has “normalized,” which in practice means people are buying less often, trading down to cheaper brands, and becoming more price-sensitive. High inflation makes this worse by reducing purchasing power, especially for discretionary categories like alcohol in restaurants and bars, which are among the first things consumers cut back on. Higher interest rates also affect the company indirectly through its distributors. With financing costs rising, many distributors are holding smaller inventories. This destocking reduces orders for Pernod Ricard, even if end-consumer demand is stable, creating temporary slowdowns in sales and profit. Geopolitical tensions further complicate the picture. Trade disputes and protectionist measures between major economies such as the U.S., China, and the European Union can lead to tariffs or restrictions that reduce access to key markets. Pernod Ricard has already seen sales hit by such measures, including the prohibition of cognac sales in Chinese duty-free shops and uncertainty around anti-dumping investigations. The war in Ukraine and related sanctions also affected sales in Russia and Eastern Europe. Weak consumer confidence in large markets like the U.S. and China remains a major issue. In the U.S., consumers are cautious and still feel squeezed by high prices, leading to softer demand both in retail and bars. In China, demand for Martell cognac and Scotch has dropped sharply, as economic conditions and restrictions on official entertainment weighed heavily on consumption. In India, excise tax hikes in large states such as Maharashtra have raised retail prices by more than a third, which could also hurt demand.

Changing consumer preferences are a growing risk for Pernod Ricard because they strike at the heart of its traditional business model, which depends on strong demand for premium spirits such as cognac, whiskey, and liqueurs. Cultural and behavioral shifts, especially among younger generations, are reshaping how people think about alcohol and how they choose to socialize. One of the biggest emerging disruptions is the rise of GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy. These medications, originally developed for diabetes and weight loss, are increasingly being linked to changes in addictive behaviors. Many users report drinking less, and early research suggests these drugs may directly reduce cravings for alcohol. If use becomes widespread, this could translate into a broad and lasting decline in alcohol consumption, cutting into demand for Pernod Ricard’s core products. Cannabis is another substitute that poses a threat. As legalization spreads and social acceptance grows, younger consumers are more likely to choose cannabis instead of alcohol, particularly for relaxation and social activities. Gen Z is already drinking less than older generations, and studies show they are more likely to use cannabis in social settings. On top of that, Gen Z and younger millennials place far greater emphasis on health and wellness. Many in this generation are drawn to alcohol-free or low-alcohol drinks, “sober-curious” lifestyles, or functional beverages that provide relaxation without the downsides of alcohol. These shifts are at odds with Pernod Ricard’s heavy focus on traditional spirits. For Pernod Ricard, the risk is not just lower consumption but also relevance. If it does not innovate and adapt to these preferences, whether by expanding its portfolio of low- and no-alcohol products, developing functional alternatives, or adjusting its brand messaging, it risks losing connection with a new generation of consumers. Over time, these cultural changes could reduce the size of the customer base for its most profitable categories and slow long-term growth.

Reasons to invest

Pernod Ricard’s portfolio of brands is a reason to invest in Pernod Ricard. The company owns one of the most diversified and balanced collections of spirits in the industry, spanning categories from whiskey and cognac to rum, vodka, gin, liqueurs, and champagne. This breadth provides resilience, as growth in one category or geography can offset temporary weakness in another. It also positions the company to capture shifting consumer preferences while maintaining strong global market share. What makes the portfolio especially attractive is how actively Pernod Ricard manages it. The company regularly reviews its brands to ensure they align with its focus on growth, profitability, and premium positioning. This has led to divestments of businesses that no longer fit strategically, such as its wine operations and more recently the planned disposal of Imperial Blue in India. While Imperial Blue was a successful local brand, selling it allows Pernod Ricard to sharpen its focus on higher-margin and faster-growing premium spirits, immediately improving both profitability and growth in India. At the same time, flagship brands like Jameson, Chivas, Absolut, Martell, and Beefeater continue to perform well, while newer or faster-growing brands such as Kahlúa and Bumbu are gaining momentum. The portfolio is also well balanced between aged spirits, such as cognac and Scotch whisky, and non-aged spirits, such as vodka and liqueurs. Aged spirits benefit from heritage, craftsmanship, and scarcity, which create barriers to entry and support premium pricing. Non-aged spirits are more flexible, easier to scale, and highly cash generative, allowing the company to adapt quickly and fuel growth. Underlying this strategy is the global premiumization trend, with consumers increasingly choosing “less but better.” Pernod Ricard is well positioned to benefit from this cultural shift, thanks to its strong stable of super-premium and ultra-premium brands. By focusing resources on these categories, the company captures higher margins, deeper consumer loyalty, and stronger long-term growth prospects.

Emerging markets are a reason to invest in Pernod Ricard because they represent the company’s strongest long-term growth drivers. These regions combine favorable demographics, rising incomes, and increasing demand for premium products, creating powerful tailwinds for the business. India has become Pernod Ricard’s second-largest market, and it continues to grow at a healthy pace. The fundamentals are compelling: 25 million people reach legal drinking age every year, GDP growth is strong, and the middle class is expanding rapidly. India is also the largest whiskey market in the world, and Pernod Ricard has built a well-balanced portfolio that includes both local bottled-in-India brands and imported premium spirits. Its track record in the market is impressive, with Jameson recently becoming the number one imported bottled-in-origin spirit brand in India. This positions the company to capture both the mass-market growth and the accelerating premiumization trend. China, Pernod Ricard’s third-largest market, presents more of a mixed picture in the short term. Economic weakness and low consumer confidence have weighed on results recently, and brands like Martell have felt the impact. However, the long-term opportunity remains intact. Premium spirits penetration continues to rise, driven by the growth of the middle class and shifting consumer tastes. Pernod Ricard has strengthened its brand equity in China and invested in local production, such as The Chuan malt whisky, which is building awareness and will come to market as it matures. Beyond India and China, Pernod Ricard is also seeing strong growth in other emerging regions such as Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. Markets like Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, and South Africa are expanding quickly, and the company has been gaining share. Demographic trends in these regions, young populations, urbanization, and rising disposable incomes, all favor increasing demand for spirits, particularly in the premium segment where Pernod Ricard has an advantage.

Innovations are a reason to invest in Pernod Ricard because they strengthen brand equity, attract new consumers, and open up incremental growth opportunities beyond the company’s traditional spirits portfolio. Pernod Ricard does not view innovation as “newness for newness’ sake,” but as a way to stay relevant by addressing evolving consumer needs such as convenience, health-conscious lifestyles, and experiences. The company has built a strong pipeline of innovation that goes beyond small test launches and is now focused on “scaled innovation,” meaning new products that can materially impact sales and growth. Recent examples include Absolut’s partnership with Ocean Spray, which quickly boosted household penetration in the U.S. market, and a range of ready-to-drink (RTD) products across brands like Jameson, Kahlúa, Malibu, and Ricard. These RTDs are particularly important because they are attracting consumers who previously drank beer or wine, making them largely incremental sales rather than cannibalizing existing spirits consumption. The RTD category itself is booming, now ranking as the second-largest alcohol segment in the U.S., and Pernod Ricard’s focus on co-branded collaborations such as Absolut Ocean Spray and Malibu Dole positions it well to capture this trend. These collaborations leverage the strength of household names outside spirits, creating trusted products in convenient formats that appeal to younger consumers and broaden the reach of Pernod Ricard’s brands. Innovation is also extending into non-alcoholic and low-alcohol beverages, another area of growing consumer demand. Ramazzotti Arancia 0 has already become the second-largest non-alcoholic brand in Germany, highlighting the company’s ability to use existing brand equity to expand into new categories. Other launches, such as Exclamation in India and Kahlúa Dunkin in the U.S., illustrate how Pernod Ricard adapts products to local tastes and trends while also experimenting with partnerships that bring fresh relevance to its legacy brands.

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Valuation

Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators for free.

The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 6,45, which is from fiscal year 2025. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 13%.  Finbox expects EPS to grow by 13,6% in the next five years. Additionally, I have selected a projected future P/E ratio of 26, which is twice the growth rate. This decision is based on Pernod Ricard's historically higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Finally, our minimum acceptable rate of return has already been established at 15%. After performing the calculations, we determined the sticker price (also known as fair value or intrinsic value) to be €140,71. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy Pernod Ricard at a price of €70,63 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.

The second calculation is known as the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that a company owner (or stockholder) receives on the purchase price of the company essentially represents its return on investment. The minimum annual return should be at least 10%, which I calculate as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 2.170, and capital expenditures were 656. I attempted to analyze their annual report to calculate the percentage of capital expenditures allocated to maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 459 in our calculations. The tax provision was 574. We have 251,6 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (2.170 – 459 + 574) / 251,6 x 10 = €90,82 in Ten Cap price.

The final calculation is called the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With Pernod Ricard's Free Cash Flow Per Share at €4,50 and a growth rate of 13%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is €64,87.

Conclusion

I believe Pernod Ricard is an intriguing company with strong management and a solid moat built on the breadth, heritage, and strength of its brand portfolio. The company has historically reported a low ROIC due to the capital-intensive nature of the spirits industry, with fiscal year 2025 marking its lowest level since 2021, though improvement is expected going forward. Free cash flow has not returned to historic highs but did increase in 2025, which is an encouraging sign. Risks remain, as competition is intense with global rivals, local craft producers, and new entrants from beer and soft drinks making it harder to defend pricing power and shelf space, while distributor consolidation and e-commerce trends add pressure on margins and visibility. Macroeconomic factors such as inflation, weak consumer confidence, higher interest rates, distributor destocking, and geopolitical tensions further weigh on performance, particularly in key markets like the U.S., China, and India. Shifting consumer preferences also pose a risk, as younger generations drink less, adopt healthier or alcohol-free lifestyles, and increasingly turn to cannabis or GLP-1 drugs that dampen alcohol consumption, making innovation and adaptation essential. On the positive side, Pernod Ricard’s brand portfolio is both broad and actively managed, spanning whiskey, cognac, vodka, rum, gin, champagne, and liqueurs, which provides resilience, supports premium pricing, and positions the company to capture the long-term premiumization trend while pruning weaker brands to focus on the most profitable opportunities. Emerging markets are another growth driver, with India now the second-largest market and China still offering strong long-term potential, alongside expansion in Africa and Latin America, all supported by favorable demographics and rising incomes. Innovation also underpins the investment case, with successful launches like Absolut Ocean Spray and Malibu Dole in the booming ready-to-drink category, as well as moves into non-alcoholic offerings, helping the company stay relevant and reach new consumers. Altogether, I believe Pernod Ricard is a quality business, and for investors seeking exposure to the spirits sector, it could be an attractive long-term investment below the Ten Cap price of €90.

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