Newmont: A Golden Opportunity?

Newmont Corporation is the world’s largest gold mining company, with a globally diversified portfolio that includes some of the highest-quality gold and copper assets in the industry. Operating across the Americas, Australia, Africa, and Papua New Guinea, Newmont combines scale, low-cost production, and long mine lives to deliver steady cash flow through commodity cycles. With a sharpened focus on Tier 1 assets, increasing exposure to copper, and a commitment to capital returns, Newmont may appeal to investors looking for growth potential, and a way to participate in the long-term demand for precious and industrial metals. The question is: Does this gold mining giant belong in your portfolio?

This is not a financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and I only do these post in order to do my own analysis and elaborate about my decisions, especially for my copiers and followers. If you consider investing in any of the ideas I present, you should do your own research or contact a professional financial advisor, as all investing comes with a risk of losing money. You are also more than welcome to copy me.

For full disclosure, I should mention that I do not own any shares in Newmont at the time of writing this analysis. If you would like to copy or view my portfolio, you can find instructions on how to do so here. If you want to purchase shares or fractional shares of Newmont, you can do so through eToro. eToro is a highly user-friendly platform that allows you to get started on investing with as little as $50.

The Business

Newmont Corporation, founded in 1916 and based in Colorado, is the world’s largest gold mining company. It operates a global portfolio of Tier 1 gold assets across North and South America, Australia, Africa, and Papua New Guinea. The company’s core business involves the exploration, development, and operation of mines to produce gold and other metals including copper, silver, zinc, and lead. The majority of Newmont’s revenue comes from the sale of refined gold, typically in the form of doré bars, which are further processed into bullion. In 2024, the company produced 6,8 million ounces of gold and 1,9 million gold-equivalent ounces from copper and other metals, with gold accounting for over 80% of total revenue. Newmont expanded its position in the copper market following its acquisition of Newcrest Mining in 2023, strengthening its role in the energy transition while maintaining its core focus on gold. It sells its output to refiners, smelters, and bullion banks, generating cash flow and returning capital to shareholders when commodity prices are strong. Newmont benefits from a durable competitive moat built on scale, asset quality, and geographic diversification. The mining industry’s high capital requirements create significant barriers to entry, serving as a toll moat. Establishing and maintaining operations like Newmont’s requires large investments in infrastructure, equipment, and environmental compliance, which limits new competition. The company owns the largest gold reserve base in the world, with 134 million ounces of gold it is confident can be mined profitably, plus nearly 100 million additional ounces that are likely to be mineable based on geological data. These reserves are concentrated in low-cost, long-life mines that help support stable margins and consistent cash flow, even when gold prices fluctuate. With operations spread across multiple regions, Newmont is able to reduce its exposure to risks such as regulatory changes, geopolitical tension, or localized disruptions. Its size also gives it procurement and financing advantages, allowing it to secure better terms with suppliers and partners. The acquisition of Newcrest adds further scale and provides greater exposure to copper, a metal that is becoming increasingly critical to global electrification and infrastructure.

Management

Thomas “Tom” Palmer serves as the CEO of Newmont Corporation, a position he assumed in 2019. He brings decades of experience in the mining industry, having held senior leadership roles across Newmont and other global mining companies. A fourth-generation miner, Tom Palmer holds a Bachelor of Engineering and a Master of Science from Monash University in Melbourne, Australia, and is recognized for his deep technical expertise and operational leadership. Since becoming CEO, Tom Palmer has focused on enhancing safety, improving operational performance, and delivering long-term value to shareholders. Early in his tenure, he articulated a vision centered on financial and technical discipline, emphasizing Newmont’s ability to grow margins and expand its reserves through a robust exploration program in favorable jurisdictions. In his words, “We will generate value for our shareholders by leveraging Newmont's prominent land position and exploration program to expand our reserves and resources.” Tom Palmer has also led Newmont through a period of significant change and modernization. During the COVID-19 pandemic, he championed a flexible work model and publicly declared the end of the traditional office era, stating, “We'll have spaces where teams can come together to work or collaborate, and we'll have people spending time in an office environment and at home or traveling to operating sites as necessary. I will also have a place where I can park my computer.” His openness to remote and hybrid work reflects a broader commitment to workforce well-being and adaptability. In addition to operational excellence and shareholder returns, Tom Palmer has made sustainability a core part of Newmont’s strategy. Under his leadership, the company has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2030 and reaching net zero by 2050. This ambitious environmental agenda complements his broader leadership approach, which balances technical expertise with a forward-looking view of the mining industry’s evolving role in society. As CEO, Tom Palmer is seen as a modern and pragmatic leader, guiding Newmont through a new chapter of growth, sustainability, and operational resilience. His background in engineering, deep industry roots, and emphasis on safety, environmental stewardship, and value creation position him well to lead the world’s largest gold producer into the future.

The Numbers

The first number we will look into is the return on invested capital, also known as ROIC. We want to see a 10-year history, with all numbers exceeding 10% in each year. However, the numbers for Newmont Corporation are underwhelming. However, the numbers for Newmont Corporation are underwhelming. Newmont has only managed to achieve a ROIC above 10% once in the past decade. Encouragingly, this occurred in 2024, when ROIC reached 11,4%. The low ROIC should be viewed in the context of the broader mining industry. It is common for large mining companies to post relatively low ROIC due to both structural and company-specific reasons. Mining is highly capital-intensive. Developing a mine can take more than 5–10 years and often requires billions in upfront investment before any revenue is generated. Once production begins, returns are earned over a long period - typically 15 to 30 years - which can dilute short-term ROIC. Like many of its peers, Newmont has at times overinvested during commodity booms, when gold prices are high, only to see weaker returns when prices fall. This cycle of “buying high” in terms of capital expenditure has led to inefficient capital allocation and depressed long-term returns. Operational costs such as fuel, labor, and materials are volatile. Unlike consumer-facing businesses, miners have limited ability to pass on rising costs, so even high gold prices don’t always translate into strong margins. Rising all-in sustaining costs have also weighed on returns. Until recently, Newmont held a number of non-core or lower-margin assets that diluted the performance of its high-quality mines. These projects often underperformed, and in some cases required impairments or write-downs, which reduced reported capital efficiency. Some exploration and development spending is capitalized and remains on the balance sheet for years before generating income. This inflates the capital base used in ROIC calculations, especially for large companies like Newmont, making returns appear lower than they might be over a mine’s full life. For many years, gold miners - including Newmont - focused more on growing production than on generating high returns. The market rewarded volume over efficiency, leading to larger portfolios, but not always better ones. Only recently has the industry begun shifting toward a focus on “quality ounces” and more disciplined use of capital. That last point is encouraging and suggests we may begin to see higher ROIC going forward.

The next numbers are the book value + dividend. In my old format this was known as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used to use in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it moving forward. As you are used to see the numbers in percentage, I have decided to share both the numbers and the percentage growth year over year. To put it simply, equity is the part of the company that belongs to its shareholders – like the portion of a house you truly own after paying off part of the mortgage. Growing equity over time means the company is becoming more valuable for its owners. So, when we track book value plus dividends, we’re essentially looking at how much value is being built for shareholders year after year. The numbers are somewhat mixed, with some years showing increases and others showing decreases, highlighting the cyclical nature of Newmont Corporation's business. Notably, equity has increased significantly in both 2019 and 2023, primarily due to major acquisitions: Goldcorp in 2019 and Newcrest in 2023. Beyond acquisitions, the volatility in equity can also be explained by several industry dynamics. Newmont operates in a capital-intensive and commodity-driven sector, which means earnings can swing significantly depending on gold prices, cost inflation, and operational performance. In years when commodity prices drop or operating costs spike, profits shrink and impairments or write-downs may be necessary, reducing book value.

Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins provide a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. It is not surprising that Newmont has delivered positive free cash flow every year for the past decade. Its highest free cash flow was recorded in 2020, reflecting a strong correlation between Newmont’s performance and the price of gold. This connection was evident again in 2024, when free cash flow reached its second-highest level ever, and the fourth quarter delivered the strongest quarterly free cash flow in the company’s history. Free cash flow in 2024 was lower than in 2020 despite record-high gold prices. This is mainly because capital expenditures were significantly higher in 2024 compared to 2020, which also impacted the levered free cash flow margin. While the margin in 2024 reached its highest level since 2021, it did not return to the peaks seen in 2020 and 2021. The sharp drop in free cash flow in 2023 was partly due to the acquisition of Newcrest, but also because of several operational disruptions. These included a four-month labor dispute at the Peñasquito mine, as well as flooding and bushfires that impacted the Tanami and Éléonore mines. These events reduced production and, as a result, free cash flow. Newmont uses its free cash flow both to reinvest in the business - aiming to support long-term, sustainable growth - and to return capital to shareholders. This is done through a predictable $1-per-share annual dividend and a share repurchase program. Investors can therefore expect a steady dividend stream and a gradually lower share count as Newmont continues to grow its free cash flow in the years ahead. Based on the current free cash flow yield, Newmont appears to be trading around fair value. However, we will revisit valuation later in the analysis.

Debt

Another important area to investigate is debt, and we want to see whether a business has a reasonable level of debt that could be paid off within three years. To assess this, we divide total long-term debt by earnings. When applying this measure to Newmont, the result shows that it would take approximately 2,3 years of earnings to pay off its long-term debt. This is comfortably below the three-year threshold. Hence, I believe debt is not a concern when considering an investment in Newmont. It is also reassuring that Newmont made debt reduction a priority in 2024 and has set a target of keeping total debt below $8 billion. This commitment to maintaining a conservative debt level suggests that debt should not be a concern going forward either.

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Risks

A decline in commodity prices is a key risk for Newmont. The company’s business is heavily tied to the prices of gold, copper, silver, zinc, and lead, which fluctuate daily and are influenced by a wide range of macroeconomic factors outside Newmont’s control. These include central bank activity, interest rates, inflation expectations, industrial demand, geopolitical tensions, and investor sentiment toward alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies. In 2024, for example, the average gold price was $2.386 per ounce, a significant increase from 2023 and 2022. This supported strong free cash flow and earnings. However, if prices were to decline sharply - for instance, to $1.500 per ounce - many of Newmont’s mines would come close to breakeven, as all-in sustaining costs can reach $1.300 to $1.400 per ounce. In this scenario, margins would compress, and free cash flow would drop substantially. According to Newmont’s estimates, every $100 change in the gold price affects annual EBITDA by approximately $400 million in either direction. This exposure is further amplified by Newmont’s limited use of hedging. While this allows shareholders to fully benefit when commodity prices rise, it also means the company is more vulnerable when prices fall. A sustained downturn would not only impact revenues and profitability, but could also lead to production curtailments at high-cost mines, delays in project development, reduced exploration budgets, and impairments on existing assets. In other words, commodity price volatility is a fundamental part of investing in Newmont. While the company has a strong portfolio and disciplined cost structure, investors must be prepared for the cyclical nature of the business and the earnings swings that come with it.

The uncertainty in estimates is another risk to be aware of when evaluating Newmont. Mining companies rely heavily on pre-feasibility and feasibility studies to guide investment decisions and operational planning. These studies produce estimates of capital costs, operating expenses, ore grades, and recovery rates—factors that ultimately determine whether a mine will be profitable. However, these estimates are based on assumptions that may not reflect future realities. For example, these estimates are based on assumptions about how much ore can be mined, how much metal can be recovered, and how much it will cost to build and run the operation. But once mining actually starts, the real conditions underground can be quite different. The shape of the ore body might be more complicated than expected, the amount of metal in the rock might be lower, or the equipment might not recover as much metal as planned. At the same time, costs for things like labor, fuel, and materials can increase, which puts pressure on profits. Estimates about how much gold or other metals a mine contains - known as reserves and resources—also come with a lot of uncertainty. In particular, "inferred resources" are based on limited data and might never be mined profitably, or at all. If the actual amount of metal is less than expected, or if it becomes too expensive to mine due to falling prices or rising costs, Newmont may need to reduce the value of those assets on its books or change its plans for developing the site. If Newmont's assumptions turn out to be too optimistic - for example, expecting higher gold prices, better recovery rates, or lower costs - the company may need to revise its estimates, reduce its reported reserves, or write down the value of its mining projects. That could hurt profits, weaken the balance sheet, and reduce the amount of money available for future growth.

Laws and regulations represent another important risk for Newmont. Mining is a heavily regulated industry, and Newmont’s operations are subject to a wide range of legal requirements related to worker safety, environmental protection, water usage, air emissions, land access, and permitting. These rules vary by country and are constantly evolving. As a result, any changes in legislation, stricter enforcement, or delays in obtaining or renewing permits can significantly increase costs - or even restrict Newmont’s ability to operate. Newmont’s mines are regularly inspected by government authorities for compliance with safety regulations. If violations are found, the company may face fines, sanctions, or forced shutdowns of specific operations, directly impacting production and financial results. In addition, workplace accidents, environmental incidents, or community health concerns can trigger investigations, lawsuits, or reputational damage, all of which can lead to delays or disruptions. On the environmental side, Newmont must carefully manage large amounts of waste rock and tailings at many of its sites. These by-products must be stored securely to prevent contamination or structural failures. If a tailings storage facility fails - through leakage or embankment instability - it can cause serious environmental harm and result in legal liability, financial penalties, and temporary shutdowns. Globally, regulatory pressure is increasing as environmental standards tighten and governments aim to balance resource extraction with community and ecological concerns. Countries like Peru, Ghana, and Mexico have introduced or proposed new taxes, royalty schemes, and local content rules. Public protests and community opposition have also delayed projects or added compliance requirements. Even in relatively stable jurisdictions like Canada, the United States, and Australia, mining companies face rising expectations. New standards related to tailings dam safety, carbon emissions, and water management are emerging, and complying with them requires significant investment in monitoring, reporting, and environmental controls. Non-compliance can result in penalties, permit delays, or restrictions on land use. Because Newmont’s mining assets are immovable and long-lived, the company is especially vulnerable to shifts in local regulatory frameworks over time.

Reasons to invest

Having the best portfolio in the industry is a strong reason to consider investing in Newmont. The company is deliberately shaping its asset base to consist entirely of Tier 1 and emerging Tier 1 operations. A Tier 1 asset is defined as producing over 500.000 gold-equivalent ounces per year, with low all-in sustaining costs, a mine life of more than 10 years, and being located in countries with solid credit ratings and stable operating environments. These assets offer scale, longevity, and cost efficiency - three qualities that support consistent cash generation and resilience across commodity cycles. Newmont is currently divesting six non-core assets and streamlining its operations to focus exclusively on its highest-quality mines. This portfolio optimization is expected to generate over $2 billion in cash and unlock $500 million in annual synergies, further strengthening the company’s ability to reinvest in growth and return capital to shareholders. By concentrating on Tier 1 assets in favorable jurisdictions, Newmont is reducing geopolitical and regulatory risk while enhancing operational performance and financial stability. With more than half of the world’s Tier 1 gold operations under its management, Newmont provides investors with exposure to some of the largest, lowest-cost, and longest-life mines in the industry. These assets are not only profitable today but are also positioned to deliver sustained value for decades. Sites such as Boddington and Tanami in Australia, Peñasquito in Mexico, and Ahafo in Ghana have either completed or are undergoing strategic investments aimed at boosting production, lowering costs, and extending mine life. Importantly, these operations are located in some of the most mining-friendly jurisdictions globally. This geographic advantage helps reduce political risk and supports a more stable regulatory environment for long-term planning. Even in a sector known for volatility, Newmont’s scale, asset quality, and global positioning enable it to navigate challenges better than most.

An alternative way to invest in gold is another reason to consider Newmont. While some investors prefer to hold physical gold or gold ETFs, owning shares in a gold mining company like Newmont provides exposure to the price of gold with the added benefit of potential income through dividends. Newmont’s earnings and cash flow are strongly correlated with gold prices, so when gold performs well, Newmont typically sees higher margins, stronger free cash flow, and enhanced shareholder returns. Newmont holds the largest gold reserve base in the industry, with 134 million ounces of proven and probable reserves and another 170 million ounces of resources. These figures are based on a conservative gold price assumption of $1.700 per ounce, which gives the company meaningful leverage to rising gold prices. For every $100 increase in the gold price, Newmont estimates a boost of approximately $400 million in annual EBITDA. In addition to upside from gold price movements, shareholders benefit from Newmont’s commitment to capital returns. The company offers a reliable base dividend of $1 per share annually, along with a share repurchase program when free cash flow is strong. This makes it appealing for investors looking to participate in gold’s long-term value as a safe-haven asset—without having to store or trade physical bullion. Furthermore, gold has historically performed well during periods of economic uncertainty or market downturns. For example, during the 2001 recession, gold rose by 5,0% while the S&P 500 declined. In the 2007–2009 recession, gold returned 16,3%, while the S&P 500 fell by over 37%. Although gold doesn’t always outperform during every downturn, it has proven to be a useful diversifier in times of stress. For those who prefer an equity-based approach to gold exposure - with additional growth potential and income - Newmont is one of the most direct and liquid ways to gain that exposure. In short, Newmont allows investors to benefit from rising gold prices while also earning dividends and participating in long-term value creation through mine development and reserve expansion.

Acquisitions are another compelling reason to consider investing in Newmont. In 2023, the company completed its acquisition of Newcrest Mining - a transformational deal that significantly expanded Newmont’s gold and copper portfolio, strengthened its presence in Tier 1 jurisdictions, and added several long-life assets to its pipeline. While integrating a company of this size is complex, Newmont has a clear plan in place to unlock long-term value through operational improvements, technical upgrades, and disciplined cost management. The integration of key assets - Cadia, Lihir, Brucejack, and Red Chris - is already well underway. These mines hold decades’ worth of mineral resources but require upfront investment to bring them up to Newmont’s operating standards. At Lihir, for example, Newmont is focused on improving both mine and processing plant stability. The company has also updated the mine plan to respect cultural heritage areas while accessing higher-grade ore. This is expected to lead to a meaningful increase in production - up to 30% - by 2028 and beyond. At Cadia, one of Australia’s largest gold and copper mines, Newmont is developing new underground mining zones and upgrading waste storage systems to ensure long-term safety and reliability. Similarly, at Brucejack, Newmont is advancing underground development and tightening its drilling patterns to better understand the gold deposits, reduce variability, and support more consistent output over time. Red Chris, still in the feasibility stage, has strong potential to become a major underground copper-gold mine and represents further long-term growth. Beyond the operational upside, the Newcrest acquisition also brings substantial financial benefits. Newmont expects to generate approximately $500 million in annual synergies, with $200 million already realized through supply chain efficiencies and productivity improvements. Importantly, the deal also doubled Newmont’s copper production—an increasingly valuable asset as global demand for copper accelerates. CEO Tom Palmer has highlighted a potential shortfall of 10 million tonnes of copper by 2035, underscoring the strategic importance of copper exposure. As the world shifts toward electrification and a low-carbon economy, this positions Newmont not only as a global gold leader but also as a key participant in the energy transition.

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Valuation

Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators for free.

The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 2,86, which is from the year 2024. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 9%. Finbox expects EPS to grow by 8,8% in the next five years. Additionally, I have selected a projected future P/E ratio of 18, which is double the growth rate. This decision is based on Newmont's historically higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Finally, our minimum acceptable rate of return has already been established at 15%. After performing the calculations, we determined the sticker price (also known as fair value or intrinsic value) to be $30,12. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy Newmont at a price of $15,06 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.

The second calculation is known as the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that a company owner (or stockholder) receives on the purchase price of the company essentially represents its return on investment. The minimum annual return should be at least 10%, which I calculate as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 6.363, and capital expenditures were 3.402. I attempted to analyze their annual report to calculate the percentage of capital expenditures allocated to maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 2.381 in our calculations. The tax provision was 1.397. We have 1.130 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (6.363 – 2.381 + 1.397) / 1.130 x 10 = $47,60 in Ten Cap price.

The final calculation is referred to as the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With Newmont's free cash flow per share at $2,62 and a growth rate of 9%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is $31,50.

Conclusion

I believe that Newmont is a great mining company with strong management. It has built a moat through its scale, asset quality, and geographic diversification. The company has consistently achieved a low ROIC, which is common for the industry. However, as Newmont shifts its focus from volume to margins, we should see a higher ROIC going forward. In 2024, the company delivered its second-highest free cash flow ever - and it would have been the highest if not for elevated capital expenditures. A decline in commodity prices is a key risk for Newmont because its earnings and cash flow are closely tied to gold and other metal prices, which are highly volatile and influenced by external factors. A sharp drop in prices can quickly erode margins, reduce profitability, and force the company to scale back operations or delay new projects. The uncertainty in estimates is also a risk, as mining plans are based on assumptions about costs, ore quality, and metal recovery that may not hold true once production begins. If actual results fall short, the company may need to revise its reserves, write down assets, or postpone future projects. Laws and regulations present another risk, as Newmont operates in multiple countries and must comply with evolving safety, environmental, and permitting rules. Regulatory changes, stricter enforcement, or community opposition can increase costs, delay developments, or even shut down operations. Having the best portfolio in the industry makes Newmont an attractive investment. It is focused on Tier 1 assets - large, low-cost, long-life mines in stable jurisdictions - which support strong cash flow and operational resilience. Newmont also offers an appealing alternative to owning physical gold. It provides exposure to gold prices while offering additional benefits such as dividends, share buybacks, and long-term growth potential. As the world’s largest gold miner with significant reserves and strong leverage to rising gold prices, Newmont allows investors to participate in gold’s safe-haven appeal through a cash-generating, equity-based investment. Acquisitions are another reason to invest in Newmont. They expand the company’s portfolio with long-life, high-quality assets and bring both financial and operational synergies. The 2023 Newcrest acquisition not only strengthened Newmont’s position in Tier 1 jurisdictions but also doubled its copper production. There are many things to like about Newmont, but personally, I do not know enough about the pricing dynamics of precious metals, so I will not be investing in Newmont at this time.

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