Keurig Dr Pepper: A Flavorful Investment Case

Keurig Dr Pepper is a major player in the North American beverage market, with a diverse portfolio that spans soft drinks, coffee, and emerging functional beverages. From iconic brands like Dr Pepper and Canada Dry to its market-leading Keurig brewers and K-Cup ecosystem, the company blends legacy strength with recurring revenue and innovation. With expanding efforts in energy drinks, sports hydration, and premium coffee, Keurig Dr Pepper is positioning itself for long-term relevance in a rapidly evolving industry. The question remains: Does this beverage powerhouse deserve a spot in your portfolio?

This is not a financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and I only do these post in order to do my own analysis and elaborate about my decisions, especially for my copiers and followers. If you consider investing in any of the ideas I present, you should do your own research or contact a professional financial advisor, as all investing comes with a risk of losing money. You are also more than welcome to copy me.

For full disclosure, I should mention that I do not own any shares in Keurig Dr Pepper at the time of writing this analysis. If you would like to copy or view my portfolio, you can find instructions on how to do so here. If you want to purchase shares or fractional shares of Keurig Dr Pepper, you can do so through eToro. eToro is a highly user-friendly platform that allows you to get started on investing with as little as $50.

The Business

Keurig Dr Pepper is a leading North American beverage company with a distinctive business model that spans both hot and cold beverages. Formed in 2018 through the merger of Keurig Green Mountain and Dr Pepper Snapple Group, the company combines a dominant position in single-serve coffee with a broad and well-established portfolio of refreshment beverages. It owns, licenses, or partners on more than 125 brands, including household names like Dr Pepper, 7UP, Canada Dry, Snapple, Mott’s, Core Hydration, Green Mountain Coffee, and The Original Donut Shop. Through its Keurig brewing systems and K-Cup pods, the company has become a leader in the U.S. at-home coffee market, with its systems present in more than 36 million homes. Keurig Dr Pepper operates an integrated route-to-market system that combines direct-store delivery and warehouse distribution, giving it wide geographic reach and a strong presence across retail, foodservice, and e-commerce channels. This infrastructure supports its own brands as well as partner products, allowing it to reach consumers at home, on the go, and away from home. The company’s hybrid beverage platform and expansive distribution footprint help solidify its position as the third-largest non-alcoholic beverage company in the United States, behind Coca-Cola and PepsiCo. The competitive moat of Keurig Dr Pepper lies in its combination of brand depth, operational scale, and business model design. It holds leading positions in niche markets: Dr Pepper is one of the top soda flavors in the U.S., while Keurig dominates single-serve coffee with an estimated 80 percent share of at-home systems. Its beverage lineup spans multiple categories, from soda and juice to bottled water and energy drinks, which allows it to capture a broad range of consumption occasions. The company’s coffee business operates as a razor-and-blade model - selling brewers and high-margin pods - creating recurring revenue and strong customer lock-in, while also generating valuable consumption data through its direct-to-consumer platforms. Its route-to-market capabilities represent a significant competitive advantage. With nearly 7,000 delivery routes in the U.S. and a complementary warehouse model, Keurig Dr Pepper can serve all major retail channels with speed and flexibility. This makes the company an attractive distribution partner for other beverage brands, and it has capitalized on this by building a strong allied brand business with minimal capital investment. Partnerships with companies like Evian, Vita Coco, and Starbucks help the company expand into new categories and reinforce its status as a platform for growth. Keurig Dr Pepper benefits from a portfolio of brands with strong heritage and emotional resonance, many of which have been part of consumer routines for decades. This long-standing presence supports brand loyalty and provides stability in a mature industry.

Management

Timothy “Tim” Cofer serves as the Chief Executive Officer of Keurig Dr Pepper, a role he assumed after joining the company as Chief Operating Officer in 2023. He brings over three decades of experience in the consumer packaged goods industry, with a proven track record of driving growth, executing large-scale transformations, and leading successful M&A strategies. Prior to joining Keurig Dr Pepper, Tim Cofer was the CEO of Central Garden & Pet Company, where he led the company through a sustained period of double-digit revenue and profit growth, as well as a series of strategic acquisitions that expanded and diversified its portfolio. Earlier in his career, Tim Cofer spent more than 25 years at Mondelēz International and its predecessor, Kraft Foods. His roles spanned a wide range of geographies and product categories, including coffee, chocolate, pizza, and packaged meats. As Executive Vice President and Chief Growth Officer at Mondelēz, he played a central role in designing and executing the company’s global growth strategy. He also served as President of Kraft Foods Europe and later of Mondelēz’s Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa business, overseeing operations across several continents. In the United States, he led Kraft Pizza Company and Oscar Mayer Foods, where he managed extensive manufacturing and distribution systems, including direct-store delivery networks. One of the highlights of his tenure at Kraft was leading the global integration of Kraft and Cadbury, where he delivered on the merger’s strategic and financial goals while cultivating a unified high-performance culture. Tim Cofer holds an MBA from the University of Minnesota and a BA in Economics and Political Science from St. Olaf College. His leadership style is often described as purpose-driven and collaborative, with a focus on building high-performing teams and nurturing long-term brand equity. As CEO of Keurig Dr Pepper, Tim Cofer is expected to continue executing the company’s growth strategy, including innovation in both hot and cold beverages and the integration of acquisitions such as GHOST Energy. Given his depth of experience and ability to lead in complex, fast-moving environments, I believe Tim Cofer is well-positioned to guide Keurig Dr Pepper through its next phase of evolution as a total beverage company.

The Numbers

The first number we will look into is the return on invested capital, also known as ROIC. We want to see a 10-year history, with all numbers exceeding 10% in each year. Keurig Dr Pepper has achieved a low ROIC, well below 10%, in every year since the merger. And at first glance, that looks concerning. But there’s a good reason behind it. One of the main reasons for the low ROIC is the accounting impact of the company’s merger. When Dr Pepper Snapple Group and Keurig Green Mountain combined, a large amount of what’s called "goodwill" was created. Goodwill is an intangible asset that shows up when one company buys another for more than the value of its physical assets. While it’s a real cost from an accounting perspective, it doesn’t directly affect how much cash the business generates or how efficiently it operates day to day. Unfortunately, ROIC includes goodwill in its calculation, so this can make the number look weaker than the actual performance would suggest. Because of that, I wouldn’t put too much weight on the current low ROIC figures. Management is also working to improve returns going forward. They’ve pointed to initiatives like cutting costs through productivity improvements and making selective acquisitions that strengthen their brand portfolio and distribution network. Taken together, I believe these steps will lead to better ROIC in the future.

The next numbers are the book value + dividend. In my old format this was known as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used to use in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it moving forward. As you are used to see the numbers in percentage, I have decided to share both the numbers and the percentage growth year over year. To put it simply, equity is the part of the company that belongs to its shareholders – like the portion of a house you truly own after paying off part of the mortgage. Growing equity over time means the company is becoming more valuable for its owners. So, when we track book value plus dividends, we’re essentially looking at how much value is being built for shareholders year after year. Not surprisingly, we see a huge increase in 2018 due to the merger. It’s encouraging to see that equity has grown each year since then – until 2024, where we see a slight decrease. This doesn’t concern me, as the small dip likely reflects temporary timing effects from the company’s capital allocation strategy. For example, recent acquisitions like GHOST can reduce equity on paper in the short term, even though they are often made to strengthen long-term shareholder value. Importantly, management expects continued growth in 2025. This combination of short-term returns and long-term investments is designed to keep building value for shareholders – even if equity doesn’t rise every single year.

Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins offer a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. It is not surprising that Keurig Dr Pepper has generated positive free cash flow every year for the past decade. While free cash flow hasn’t reached particularly high levels, this is largely due to increased input costs, the acquisition of GHOST, and the company’s investment in a new territory acquisition in Arizona to expand its manufacturing and distribution presence. These factors also weighed on the levered free cash flow margin. However, it's worth noting that both free cash flow and the levered free cash flow margin improved from 2023 to 2024, which is an encouraging sign. In addition to using free cash flow for acquisitions and expanding its manufacturing and distribution footprint, Keurig Dr Pepper remains committed to returning capital to shareholders. In 2024, the company allocated $1,1 billion to share buybacks and increased its dividend by 7%. This suggests that investors stand to benefit as the company grows its free cash flow and returns more of it to shareholders over time. While the current free cash flow yield is relatively low - implying that the stock is trading at a high valuation - we will revisit this topic in the valuation section of the analysis.

Debt

Another important area to investigate is debt, and we want to see whether a business has a reasonable level of debt that could be paid off within three years. To assess this, we divide total long-term debt by earnings. When applying this measure to Keurig Dr Pepper, the result shows that it would take approximately 9,8 years of earnings to pay off its long-term debt. This is significantly higher than the three-year threshold I prefer to see. The elevated debt level is partly due to recent investments, including the acquisition of GHOST. Management has acknowledged this and stated that a key priority for 2025 will be to reduce debt. In my view, the current debt level is somewhat concerning. While it may not be a deal-breaker, it’s something that should be monitored closely if considering an investment in Keurig Dr Pepper.

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Risks

Competition is one of the main risks for Keurig Dr Pepper. The company faces intense rivalry across both the cold and hot beverage categories, operating in highly competitive markets where consumer preferences are constantly evolving. Many of its competitors have greater global scale and deeper resources, allowing them to respond quickly to market shifts. This includes multinational giants like Coca-Cola and PepsiCo in soft drinks, and Nestlé, Starbucks, and J.M. Smucker in coffee - each with strong brand portfolios and significant marketing power. In addition to these global players, Keurig Dr Pepper also contends with smaller, regional, and private label competitors. These challengers can be more nimble, often better able to serve niche markets or launch new products quickly. In many retail settings, they compete aggressively on price and may undercut branded offerings through lower shelf prices or retailer-owned alternatives. A particularly important area of risk lies in the Keurig system. A significant portion of the company’s earnings depends on K-Cup pod sales, which in turn rely on continued consumer adoption of Keurig brewers. If household penetration of brewers stalls or declines, this could materially impact financial performance. Keurig brewers not only compete with other single-serve systems, but also with traditional coffee machines, espresso makers, and out-of-home options like cafés. Without clear product differentiation and ongoing consumer interest, Keurig Dr Pepper’s position in the at-home coffee space could weaken. If the company fails to keep up with innovation, maintain brand relevance, or respond effectively to pricing and promotional pressures, it could face market share erosion and margin compression. In short, competition remains a meaningful and ongoing risk that should not be overlooked.

Commodity prices are a meaningful risk for Keurig Dr Pepper, especially given the company’s reliance on raw materials like coffee, apples, corn, packaging, and fuel. These inputs are essential to both its beverage and coffee businesses, and their costs can change due to a wide range of factors outside the company’s control. Recently, Keurig Dr Pepper has been hit by a sharp rise in coffee prices - particularly the cost of green coffee beans, which are the raw beans used in its K-Cup pods. This matters because a large part of the company’s business depends on the Keurig system. To ensure quality, Keurig Dr Pepper often pays more than the base market price to secure the specific beans it needs. But those extra costs can swing widely depending on supply and demand. And when prices are this unpredictable, it becomes harder for the company to lock in stable pricing with suppliers, making cost planning more difficult. When input costs rise sharply, Keurig Dr Pepper may struggle to pass those increases on to consumers - especially in competitive categories like soft drinks and coffee. If higher prices lead to fewer sales, or if the company can't raise prices quickly enough to keep up with costs, profit margins and earnings can take a hit. On the flip side, if the company hedges against rising costs and prices unexpectedly fall, it could end up paying more than the market rate. All of this makes commodity price volatility a persistent and complex risk for Keurig Dr Pepper - one that can impact everything from costs to competitiveness and overall financial performance.

Changing consumer preferences are a growing risk for Keurig Dr Pepper. Like many companies in the beverage industry, it must continually adapt to evolving tastes, health trends, and lifestyle shifts - or risk falling behind. One of the biggest challenges is the rising demand for healthier options. More consumers are cutting back on sugary drinks due to concerns about obesity, diabetes, and overall wellness. This shift puts pressure on Keurig Dr Pepper’s traditional soft drink portfolio, which includes brands like Dr Pepper, 7UP, and A&W. New trends are also emerging that could further impact consumer behavior. The growing popularity of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, which suppress appetite and reduce calorie intake, may lead to lower demand for higher-calorie beverages - especially among health-conscious consumers in developed markets. While the full impact of these drugs is still uncertain, Keurig Dr Pepper’s significant exposure to both soda and sweetened coffee drinks could make it more vulnerable than companies with more diverse, health-oriented product lines. Sustainability is another key factor shaping consumer expectations. Increasingly, people care not just about what’s in their drink, but how it’s made and packaged. Concerns around plastic waste, recyclability, and environmental impact are pushing beverage companies to innovate in both materials and operations. Keurig Dr Pepper may face criticism for its reliance on single-use K-Cup pods and PET bottles if it doesn’t continue to improve its sustainability practices. Falling short in this area could hurt its image and lead to reduced sales among environmentally conscious consumers. Ingredient transparency and regulation are also gaining traction. Consumers and regulators alike are questioning the use of artificial sweeteners, colorings, and high-fructose corn syrup. In some regions, sugar taxes and ingredient restrictions are already in place, and more could follow. These measures can reduce demand or require reformulation—both of which carry risks, including changes in taste that might alienate loyal customers.

Reasons to invest

Keurig Dr Pepper’s soft drink portfolio is one of its core strengths and a key reason to consider investing in the company. The carbonated soft drink (CSD) category remains resilient, and Keurig Dr Pepper continues to outperform within it. In 2024, its CSD brands gained market share, reflecting strong consumer demand and effective execution. At the center of this momentum is Dr Pepper, now the number two full-flavor soft drink in the U.S. Its unique taste, supported by savvy marketing and limited-time offerings, continues to resonate with consumers. The brand has now gained market share for eight consecutive years, underlining its consistent appeal. Innovations like Dr Pepper Creamy Coconut and the recent launch of Dr Pepper Blackberry have generated strong buzz and retail success. Beyond Dr Pepper, other brands in the portfolio are also performing well. Canada Dry’s Fruit Splash Cherry became the top innovation in the CSD category, while 7UP gained share thanks to seasonal promotions and a refreshed visual identity. Looking ahead to 2025, Keurig Dr Pepper plans to build on this momentum with a strong innovation pipeline, including new flavor extensions like 7UP Tropical and nostalgic launches such as A&W Ice Cream Sundae - demonstrating a clear commitment to keeping its portfolio relevant and exciting. The zero-sugar segment is another promising growth area. Dr Pepper Zero Sugar has gained meaningful traction and is expected to remain a key driver as more consumers look for lower-calorie options without compromising on taste. These offerings help Keurig Dr Pepper reach health-conscious customers while still leveraging the strength of its established brands. erhaps most importantly, many of Keurig Dr Pepper’s CSD brands - like Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, and A&W - benefit from long-standing consumer trust and emotional resonance. These are brands that have been part of household routines for generations. That deep brand loyalty gives the company pricing power and a more stable revenue base in an otherwise mature and competitive category.

Coffee is one of the most compelling reasons to consider Keurig Dr Pepper as an investment. The business is supported by a strong foundation in at-home brewing, an expanding ecosystem of pod-based offerings, and growing participation in both premium and ready-to-drink formats. At the center of the coffee segment is the Keurig single-serve platform—a powerful recurring revenue model. With more than 36 million Keurig brewers already in North American homes and a 7,3% increase in brewer shipments in 2024, the installed base continues to grow, setting the stage for rising pod sales. Once a consumer owns a Keurig machine, they are effectively "locked in" to the K-Cup ecosystem, generating steady repeat purchases over time. Keurig Dr Pepper is also capitalizing on fast-growing trends in cold and iced coffee. The introduction of dedicated brewers such as the K-Iced and K-Brew + Chill systems allows consumers to enjoy café-style beverages at home. These innovations expand coffee consumption beyond the traditional morning cup, unlocking new usage occasions and increasing the lifetime value of each customer. Premiumization is another strategic priority. Through its strengthened partnership with Lavazza and new alliances with emerging brands like Black Rifle Coffee and Kicking Horse, the company is targeting consumers willing to trade up for quality and variety. Its ready-to-drink coffee partnership with La Colombe is also showing momentum, with strong retail sales growth in recent quarters. This channel - along with away-from-home coffee in offices, hospitality, and foodservice - represents an area where Keurig Dr Pepper has room to grow. Importantly, management remains confident in the long-term potential of the coffee category. Coffee is the most consumed beverage globally after water, and at-home consumption continues to rise as consumers seek convenience, customization, and affordability. In an inflationary environment, Keurig Dr Pepper is well-positioned to highlight the value of its at-home coffee solutions as a more economical alternative to café visits - while still delivering quality and variety.

Keurig Dr Pepper’s growing presence in the functional beverage space - spanning sports hydration and energy drinks - is a powerful driver of future growth and a key reason to consider investing in the company. These segments are among the fastest-growing in the non-alcoholic beverage industry, and Keurig Dr Pepper is rapidly building a competitive portfolio with the scale, brand appeal, and distribution network to succeed. A standout example is Electrolit, a leading brand in the sports hydration category. Since joining Keurig Dr Pepper’s direct-store delivery network, Electrolit has gained significant traction, becoming the company’s second-largest growth contributor in 2024 after carbonated soft drinks. Management sees considerable runway ahead, with plans to expand Electrolit’s reach beyond its Hispanic specialty roots and into the mainstream sports drink aisle. The brand also under-indexes in formats like multi-packs and zero-sugar options - areas where Keurig Dr Pepper can drive further growth using its national distribution capabilities. The company is also making major strides in the energy drink category. Just three years ago, Keurig Dr Pepper had virtually no presence in the space. Today, it holds more than 6% market share and expects over $1 billion in retail sales from its energy portfolio in 2025. This rapid expansion reflects the successful buildout of a complementary brand lineup designed to target distinct consumer segments: C4 in the fitness and performance space, Black Rifle Energy with patriotic appeal, Bloom as a female-forward wellness brand, and now GHOST - a fast-growing lifestyle brand resonating with Gen Z and millennial consumers. What makes this functional beverage expansion especially attractive is how well it aligns with long-term consumer trends. Demand for hydration, energy, and wellness products continues to rise, fueled by shifts in lifestyle, fitness culture, and the growing focus on physical and mental performance. These categories also tend to carry higher margins, making them not only a top-line growth opportunity but also supportive of long-term profitability.

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Valuation

Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators for free.

The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 1,05, which is from the year 2024. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 8%. The company targets long-term EPS growth of 8% annually. Additionally, I have selected a projected future P/E ratio of 16, which is double the growth rate. This decision is based on Keurig Dr Pepper's historically higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Finally, our minimum acceptable rate of return has already been established at 15%. After performing the calculations, we determined the sticker price (also known as fair value or intrinsic value) to be $8,97. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy Keurig Dr Pepper at a price of $4,48 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.

The second calculation is known as the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that a company owner (or stockholder) receives on the purchase price of the company essentially represents its return on investment. The minimum annual return should be at least 10%, which I calculate as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 2.219, and capital expenditures were 563. I attempted to analyze their annual report to calculate the percentage of capital expenditures allocated to maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 394 in our calculations. The tax provision was 473. We have 1.356 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (2.219 – 394 + 473) / 1.356 x 10 = $16,95 in Ten Cap price.

The final calculation is referred to as the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With Keurig Dr Pepper's free cash flow per share at $1,22 and a growth rate of 8%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is $14,01.

Conclusion

I believe that Keurig Dr Pepper is an intriguing company with great management. The company has a moat through the combination of brand depth, operational scale, and business model design. While it has consistently reported a low ROIC, this is largely due to goodwill from past acquisitions, so it doesn’t concern me. Management has also made it clear that improving ROIC is a priority moving forward. Free cash flow is relatively stable, and although 2024 didn’t reach previous highs, it did improve compared to 2023. Competition remains a key risk, as Keurig Dr Pepper faces intense rivalry across both soft drinks and coffee from global players like Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, and Nestlé. Its success relies heavily on continued consumer interest, particularly in the Keurig system. Commodity price volatility is another significant risk, especially given the company's reliance on inputs like coffee, packaging, and fuel. Rising green coffee prices, in particular, have a direct impact on the K-Cup business and can pressure margins. Changing consumer preferences also pose a challenge, as more people shift toward healthier, lower-calorie, and more sustainable beverages - putting pressure on traditional soda and sweetened coffee offerings. That said, Keurig Dr Pepper’s soft drink portfolio is a core strength. Brands like Dr Pepper, now the number two full-flavor soft drink in the U.S., benefit from strong loyalty, steady market share gains, and successful innovation. Coffee is another compelling reason to invest, with a large installed base of Keurig brewers driving recurring K-Cup pod sales. The company is also growing its presence in cold and premium coffee, as well as ready-to-drink and away-from-home formats. Its expansion into functional beverages - such as sports hydration and energy drinks - is another promising growth area. With brands like Electrolit, C4, and GHOST, Keurig Dr Pepper is capturing market share in high-growth, high-margin segments that align well with long-term consumer trends. Overall, I believe there are many things to like about Keurig Dr Pepper. However, the company’s high debt level means I would need at least a 50% discount before investing. For that reason, I believe that buying shares at the Ten Cap price of $17 would represent a good long-term opportunity.

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