Intuit: A Data-Driven Compounder in Financial Software

Intuit is a leading financial software company behind popular products like TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp. It helps individuals and businesses manage their money, file taxes, handle accounting, and grow their finances more easily. Over the years, Intuit has transformed from a traditional software provider into an intelligent platform that uses data and artificial intelligence to automate tasks and give helpful financial insights. With trusted brands, growing demand from larger businesses, and a strong record of innovation, Intuit is well positioned for long-term growth. The question is: Should this financial technology leader be part of your portfolio?

This is not a financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and I only do these post in order to do my own analysis and elaborate about my decisions, especially for my copiers and followers. If you consider investing in any of the ideas I present, you should do your own research or contact a professional financial advisor, as all investing comes with a risk of losing money. You are also more than welcome to copy me. 

For full disclosure, I should mention that I do not own any shares in Intuit at the time of writing this analysis. If you would like to copy or view my portfolio, you can find instructions on how to do so here. If you want to purchase shares or fractional shares of Intuit, you can do so through eToro. eToro is a highly user-friendly platform that allows you to get started on investing with as little as $50.

The Business

Intuit, founded in 1983 in California, is a global financial technology company that develops software to simplify financial management for individuals, small businesses, and accountants. Its flagship products - QuickBooks, TurboTax, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp - anchor four main operating segments that together serve around 100 million customers worldwide. The Global Business Solutions segment revolves around the QuickBooks ecosystem, integrating accounting, payments, payroll, capital access, and marketing automation through Mailchimp. It targets small and mid-market businesses seeking an end-to-end financial management and growth platform. The Consumer segment focuses on TurboTax, the leading do-it-yourself and assisted tax preparation software in the United States and Canada. Credit Karma offers a personal finance platform that helps users track credit, monitor identity, and access personalized financial product recommendations. ProTax provides professional tax software such as Lacerte and ProSeries for accountants, seamlessly connected to QuickBooks. The company’s shift to a subscription-based model has increased the share of recurring revenue, providing stability and improving customer retention. This model, supported by Intuit’s extensive dataset from millions of users, fuels long-term revenue growth and high profitability. Intuit’s competitive advantages form a wide and durable moat built on scale, data, and integration. QuickBooks controls roughly 60–80% of the U.S. small-business accounting software market, while TurboTax holds about 60–70% of the consumer tax software market. These leadership positions create meaningful barriers to entry and give Intuit solid pricing power. Migrating financial data from QuickBooks or tax records from TurboTax to other platforms is costly and operationally complex, resulting in high switching costs. By integrating payroll, payment processing, and financing within QuickBooks, Intuit strengthens customer reliance on its platform and enhances retention. The QuickBooks ecosystem also benefits from a two-sided network effect: as more businesses use the platform, more accountants and bookkeepers become proficient in it. This large community of QuickBooks-trained professionals makes it the default choice for new businesses seeking expert help, further reinforcing adoption. Trust is another important part of Intuit’s moat. In areas like finance and taxation, reliability and accuracy matter deeply, and Intuit has built a strong reputation over decades by consistently delivering dependable products. This trust encourages long-term relationships and supports customer loyalty. The company’s scale and extensive data also give it an edge, allowing it to refine its services and improve customer experiences over time. Its Intuit Operating System connects all products - QuickBooks, TurboTax, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp - into one integrated platform. This structure enables users to manage multiple financial tasks in one place and increases reliance on the ecosystem, making it less likely that customers will move to other providers. Intuit’s moat is defined by its scale, data advantage, trusted brand, and deep product integration, reinforced by high switching costs and network effects.

Management

Sasan Goodarzi serves as the CEO of Intuit, a position he has held since 2019. He joined the company in 2009 and has since held several senior leadership roles, including Executive Vice President and General Manager of the Small Business and Self-Employed Group, as well as leadership positions across other core divisions. Before joining Intuit, Sasan Goodarzi held leadership roles at Invensys and Honeywell, and he also served as the CEO and co-founder of Lazer Cables Inc. He holds a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering from the University of Central Florida and a master’s degree in business administration from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. In addition to his role at Intuit, Sasan Goodarzi serves on the Board of Directors at both Intuit and Atlassian. Under Sasan Goodarzi’s leadership, Intuit has accelerated its transformation from a tax and accounting software provider into a global financial technology platform. He has overseen the company’s expansion through major acquisitions, including Credit Karma in 2020 and Mailchimp in 2021, both of which have strengthened Intuit’s ecosystem and broadened its reach into personal finance and marketing automation. His strategic vision is centered on helping consumers and small businesses achieve financial prosperity, positioning Intuit as an AI-driven expert platform that combines data, technology, and human expertise to automate complex financial tasks and empower decision-making. Sasan Goodarzi is widely recognized for fostering a culture of innovation and inclusion within Intuit. The company has been consistently named one of Fortune’s “100 Best Companies to Work For” and one of The Wall Street Journal’s “Best Managed Companies.” He encourages what he calls a “day 1 mindset,” emphasizing curiosity, continuous improvement, and constructive dissatisfaction as guiding principles for leadership. As he described in a recent earnings call, this mindset is about maintaining the same objectivity and enthusiasm as if it were one’s first day on the job, constantly questioning existing assumptions and seeking better ways to serve customers. Sasan Goodarzi’s leadership style blends strategic ambition with a strong cultural foundation. His focus on innovation, talent empowerment, and long-term value creation has positioned Intuit to sustain growth and strengthen its competitive advantage.

The Numbers

The first number we will look into is the return on invested capital, also known as ROIC. We want to see a 10-year history, with all numbers exceeding 10% in each year. Intuit has historically achieved a high ROIC because its business model is built on scalable software, high margins, and strong customer retention. Most of its revenue comes from subscriptions, which provide stable cash flows and require little incremental capital to grow. Once Intuit builds and maintains its platforms, such as QuickBooks and TurboTax, additional users can be added at very low cost. This structure creates operating leverage and allows Intuit to generate strong returns relative to the capital it invests. The company’s products are deeply embedded in customers’ financial workflows, which leads to long relationships and reduces churn. These factors have traditionally allowed Intuit to achieve returns well above its cost of capital. ROIC, however, declined significantly from fiscal year 2020 onward. The main reason is that Intuit made two major acquisitions: Credit Karma in 2020 and Mailchimp in 2021. These purchases required large investments that increased the amount of capital tied up in the business faster than profits grew. In the first few years after the acquisitions, the new businesses also earned lower margins than Intuit’s core operations, as the company spent heavily on integration, marketing, and product development. This combination of higher investment and slower profit contribution caused ROIC to fall temporarily, even though the company’s overall earnings continued to grow. The company’s ROIC reached its lowest point in fiscal year 2023, partly because the impact of its large acquisitions had fully set in and profit growth slowed during a weaker economic period. Since then, ROIC has improved each year as the acquisitions have become better integrated and started contributing more meaningfully to growth. Credit Karma and Mailchimp are now more closely connected to Intuit’s overall platform, creating cross-selling opportunities and boosting revenue. Profit margins have also improved as the company becomes more efficient and benefits from scale. Looking ahead, Intuit’s ROIC is expected to keep improving at a steady pace. The company has moved beyond the period of large investments related to its major acquisitions, and management is now focused on making those investments more productive, improving profitability, and using capital carefully. Although ROIC may not reach the very high levels seen before 2020, when the business was smaller and required less investment, it should continue to improve as profits grow and the acquired businesses contribute more to overall earnings.

The next numbers are the book value + dividend. In my old format this was known as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used to use in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it moving forward. As you are used to see the numbers in percentage, I have decided to share both the numbers and the percentage growth year over year. To put it simply, equity is the part of the company that belongs to its shareholders – like the portion of a house you truly own after paying off part of the mortgage. Growing equity over time means the company is becoming more valuable for its owners. So, when we track book value plus dividends, we’re essentially looking at how much value is being built for shareholders year after year. Intuit has grown its equity every year for the past nine years mainly because it consistently generates strong profits and reinvests a large share of them back into the business. Its products have high margins and recurring revenue, which provide a steady flow of cash that supports both growth and a stronger financial position. The company has also expanded its operations through acquisitions and product innovation, which have steadily increased its total assets and earnings power over time. In addition, Intuit’s disciplined cost management and focus on scalable software have helped maintain high profitability even during periods of slower economic growth. This upward trend in equity is likely to continue as long as the company sustains its current growth strategy. With its large and loyal customer base, strong cash generation, and growing ecosystem of products, Intuit is well positioned to keep increasing both its earnings and book value in the coming years.

Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins provide a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. Intuit has consistently achieved high free cash flow and strong free cash flow margins because of the nature of its business model. Most of its revenue comes from subscription-based software, which generates steady, predictable cash inflows throughout the year. Once Intuit has built and maintained its digital platforms, the cost of serving additional customers is relatively low, meaning that a large share of each dollar of revenue turns into cash. The company also requires very little spending on physical assets compared to industrial firms, so capital expenditures remain modest. This combination of high profitability, recurring revenue, and low reinvestment needs leads to robust free cash flow generation. Free cash flow reached a record high in fiscal year 2025 mainly because the company earned more from its core products, including QuickBooks, Credit Karma, and TurboTax. Strong sales, good cost control, and better management of incoming and outgoing payments all helped generate more cash than ever before. However, the levered free cash flow margin did not quite match its previous peak because spending also increased. Intuit invested heavily in research, new AI tools, and the integration of its acquired businesses. So, while total cash generation hit a new record, the share of revenue that turned into cash was slightly lower than in earlier years. Looking ahead, both free cash flow and free cash flow margins are expected to keep growing over time. As the company continues to expand its ecosystem, automate more processes with AI, and benefit from scale, operating efficiency should improve. Intuit uses its free cash flow to invest in product innovation, fund strategic acquisitions, repurchase shares, and pay dividends. Over time, investors benefit from this approach through higher dividend payments and a reduced number of shares, which increases the value of each remaining share. The free cash flow yield is at its highest level since fiscal year 2019, suggesting that even though the stock is not cheap, it is trading at a more appealing valuation than it has in several years. We will take a closer look at valuation later in the analysis.

Debt

Another important factor to consider is the company’s level of debt. It is essential to assess whether a business carries a manageable amount of debt that could reasonably be repaid within three years of earnings. This can be evaluated by comparing long-term debt to annual earnings. Based on this calculation, Intuit’s debt-to-earnings ratio stands at 1,57 years, well below the three-year threshold. The company has only exceeded that level once in the past decade, in fiscal year 2022, following the acquisitions of Credit Karma and Mailchimp. This suggests that Intuit’s debt remains at a comfortable level and does not pose a meaningful risk for investors.

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Risks

Competition is a risk for Intuit because the company operates in several fast-changing markets where both established players and new entrants are constantly trying to take market share. Intuit’s main products - QuickBooks, TurboTax, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp - each face different types of competitive pressure. In small business accounting, companies like Xero and Sage continue to expand their cloud-based offerings, often targeting the same customer segment as QuickBooks. In consumer tax preparation, the greatest emerging risk comes from the U.S. government’s own initiatives, such as the IRS Direct File program, which provides a free filing option that could reduce the need for paid software like TurboTax. Competition is also intensifying as technology evolves. Rivals are increasingly using artificial intelligence to automate accounting, marketing, and tax preparation tasks, potentially reducing the advantages of Intuit’s established platforms. Large technology companies with vast user bases and stronger brand recognition can also move into Intuit’s markets quickly, using their resources and ecosystems to attract customers away. Startups and smaller competitors, meanwhile, often pursue aggressive pricing strategies, including free or low-cost services, which can pressure Intuit to lower its own prices or spend more on marketing to defend its market share. Because Intuit operates across so many areas of financial technology, accounting, tax filing, marketing, and personal finance, it faces a wide range of competitors, each with different strengths and strategies. This makes it difficult to defend every part of its business at once. If rivals offer products that are cheaper, easier to use, or better integrated with other tools, Intuit could lose customers or see slower growth.

Cybersecurity risk is a significant concern for Intuit because of the vast amount of sensitive financial and personal data it manages across its platforms. The company stores and processes tax information, credit data, payroll records, bank account details, and other confidential information for millions of customers and businesses. This makes Intuit a highly attractive target for hackers, cybercriminals, and even state-sponsored attackers. Despite continuous investment in security systems and protocols, no protection can be completely foolproof, and a single major breach could severely damage customer trust and Intuit’s reputation. The risk is heightened by the nature of Intuit’s business model. Its products - TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp - are all online and interconnected, allowing customers to use one account across multiple services. While this integration improves convenience, it also means that a single security breach could expose data across several platforms at once. Additionally, Intuit relies on third-party vendors, developers, and partners to support its products and infrastructure, which adds more potential points of vulnerability. Even if the breach originates outside of Intuit, the company would still face reputational and financial consequences. Cyber threats are also becoming more sophisticated. Advances in artificial intelligence are enabling attackers to develop new methods of intrusion, phishing, and identity fraud that are harder to detect and defend against. Cybercriminals can now use AI to create realistic fake messages, impersonate trusted parties, or exploit security gaps more efficiently. At the same time, hybrid work arrangements - where employees work remotely - can increase exposure to attacks due to weaker home network protections and reduced oversight. The broader cybersecurity environment also contributes to the risk. Large-scale data breaches at other companies can indirectly affect Intuit if stolen credentials are reused by customers across platforms, allowing attackers to gain unauthorized access to Intuit’s systems. Even if Intuit’s own systems remain secure, rising concern over data privacy could make consumers more hesitant to share sensitive information online, potentially slowing adoption of its digital products.

Regulatory risks are a significant concern for Intuit because the company operates in multiple industries that are heavily monitored and frequently changing. Intuit’s products touch on sensitive areas such as tax preparation, personal finance, lending, payments, and artificial intelligence, each of which is governed by its own complex set of rules. Changes in any of these regulatory environments can directly affect how Intuit operates, what products it can offer, and how much it can charge customers. Scrutiny have long been intense in the tax preparation industry, where Intuit’s TurboTax faces ongoing attention from federal and state governments. Regulators have questioned the company’s advertising and pricing practices in the past, as seen in the $141 million settlement in 2022 related to “free” file promotions. Future regulatory actions could lead to restrictions on marketing, product design, or pricing. Beyond tax preparation, Intuit faces rising compliance challenges in financial services and data protection. Laws governing digital payments, money transmission, and lending vary widely by jurisdiction and often require specific licenses or operational standards. If Intuit fails to meet these requirements, it could face fines, lose access to certain markets, or be forced to modify its business operations. Another emerging area of concern is artificial intelligence regulation. Intuit’s strategy heavily relies on AI-driven automation and data analytics, but new laws such as the European Union’s AI Act and similar state-level rules in the United States impose strict requirements on how companies develop and use AI systems. Complying with these regulations could increase costs, slow innovation, and require changes to existing products. Missteps in AI use or data handling could also expose Intuit to reputational harm or legal penalties if regulators or consumers view its practices as unethical or noncompliant.

Reasons to invest

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a reason to invest in Intuit. Over the past several years, the company has deliberately transformed itself into an AI-driven expert platform, combining the power of data, machine learning, and human expertise to create intelligent, automated experiences for its customers. These investments are now translating into real business results. Intuit has built one of the most advanced AI ecosystems in the financial software industry, drawing from millions of customer interactions and trillions of dollars in transaction data to deliver smarter, more personalized solutions across its platforms: QuickBooks, TurboTax, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp. Intuit’s AI strategy is centered on what it calls “done-for-you” experiences, where virtual AI agents and AI-enabled human experts handle complex financial and operational tasks on behalf of customers. These agents can automatically chase unpaid invoices, improve cash flow, identify new business opportunities, and even suggest financing options, all in real time. Since launching its virtual AI team in 2025, customer engagement has exceeded expectations, with millions of active users and repeat usage rates above 80%. Early results show tangible benefits: businesses using AI accounting agents save up to 12 hours a month, and those using AI payment tools get paid about five days faster. What sets Intuit apart is how it combines artificial intelligence with human expertise and a vast amount of high-quality data. Its in-house AI platform, called GenOS, enables more than a thousand engineers to quickly build and roll out new AI tools across its products. By blending automation with human insight, Intuit delivers solutions that are not only efficient but also accurate and reliable, qualities that matter greatly in financial software. This approach allows Intuit’s software to do much more than just store and organize financial information. With AI, the system can now analyze data, spot patterns, and give customers practical insights, such as how to improve cash flow, reduce costs, or identify new business opportunities. In other words, Intuit’s products are evolving from tools that record what has happened to intelligent systems that help guide what to do next. The potential economic impact is significant. As Intuit’s AI capabilities continue to scale, the company is well positioned to consolidate more of its customers’ technology spending, strengthen loyalty, and expand margins.

Intuit’s consumer platform is a key reason to invest in the company. By combining TurboTax and Credit Karma into a single, connected ecosystem, Intuit is transforming how consumers manage their finances year-round rather than just during tax season. This strategy allows the company to deepen engagement, increase monetization opportunities, and expand beyond its traditional tax preparation business. TurboTax is Intuit’s market-leading tax preparation software, used by millions of Americans to file their taxes accurately and efficiently. Credit Karma, acquired in 2020, is a personal finance platform that helps users understand and improve their credit, find financial products such as loans and credit cards, and manage their money more effectively. In fiscal year 2025, Intuit’s Consumer Group delivered an outstanding performance, reflecting the strength of its integrated platform. Revenue grew 10% to nearly $5 billion, fueled by exceptional growth across both TurboTax Live and Credit Karma. TurboTax Live, which connects users with tax experts who can guide or even complete their filings, saw revenue surge 47%, well above Intuit’s long-term growth target. This growth underscores how Intuit is successfully disrupting the traditional assisted tax preparation market by offering a faster, more affordable, and more personalized alternative to visiting a tax office. At the same time, Credit Karma grew 32%, supported by increased engagement and deeper integration with TurboTax. The platform now helps millions of users improve their credit, find loans, and make smarter financial decisions throughout the year. Importantly, Credit Karma is becoming a key growth driver for TurboTax, as more users transition seamlessly from financial planning on Credit Karma to tax filing on TurboTax. This combination strengthens Intuit’s competitive position by creating a unified ecosystem where customers can manage their taxes, credit, and personal finances in one place. It also expands the company’s ability to cross-sell services, increase customer retention, and capture more value from its large and growing user base.

Focusing on the mid-market is an important reason to invest in Intuit. Over the past six years, the company has built new capabilities to serve larger and more complex businesses with annual revenue between $2.5 million and $100 million. This is a massive market opportunity worth about $89 billion. Many of these businesses struggle with inefficiencies because they use too many separate software systems that do not work well together. This makes it difficult to manage daily operations, track performance, and control costs. Intuit’s all-in-one business platform solves these problems by bringing accounting, payroll, payments, and financial insights together in one connected system. In fiscal year 2025, Intuit’s mid-market business grew strongly, with a 23% increase in customers and a 40% increase in revenue. This growth was largely driven by the success of QuickBooks Online Advanced and the new Intuit Enterprise Suite (IES), a cloud-based solution built for larger businesses. IES helps companies automate complex tasks, connect their financial data in one place, and rely less on multiple separate software tools. This saves time, reduces costs, and helps businesses make better decisions. According to a Forrester study, customers using IES achieved a 300% return on investment over three years due to higher efficiency, lower costs, and better financial insights. Importantly, Intuit’s approach creates a scalable growth pathway: businesses can start with basic QuickBooks products and seamlessly upgrade to Advanced or IES as they expand. This ensures customer retention and higher revenue per client over time. Partnerships with leading accounting and technology advisory firms further strengthen this ecosystem, helping Intuit reach thousands of new potential customers while deepening engagement with existing ones. Given the vast size of the mid-market, Intuit’s low current penetration, and the early success of its tailored offerings, this segment has the potential to become a growth engine that could eventually surpass the scale of the company’s small business operations.

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Valuation

Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators for free.

The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 13,67, which is from fiscal year 2025. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 15%.  Finbox expects EPS to grow by 26% in the next five years, but 15% is the highest number I use. Additionally, I have chosen a projected future P/E ratio of 30, which is twice the growth rate. This decision is based on the fact that Intuit has historically had a higher P/E ratio. Lastly, our minimum acceptable rate of return is already set at 15%. Doing the calculations, we come up with the sticker price (some call it fair value or intrinsic value) of $410,10. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy Intuit at a price of $205,05 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.

The second calculation is called the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that an owner of a company (or stock) receives on the purchase price of the company is essentially its return on investment. The return should be at least 10% annually, and I calculate it as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 6.207 and capital expenditures were 84. I attempted to review their annual report to determine the percentage of capital expenditures allocated to maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated for maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 59 in our calculations. The tax provision was 965. We have 278,9 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (6.207 – 59 + 965) / 278,9 x 10 = $255,04 in Ten Cap price.

The final calculation is called the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With Intuit's Free Cash Flow Per Share at $21,95 and a growth rate of 15%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is $346,50.

Conclusion

I believe that Intuit is a great company with excellent management. The company has built a strong competitive position through its scale, data advantage, trusted brand, and deep product integration. ROIC has declined since fiscal year 2020 due to acquisitions but has grown over the past two years and is expected to keep improving. Free cash flow reached its highest level ever in fiscal year 2025, and although the margin is slightly below past peaks, it remains very strong. Competition is a key risk because Intuit operates in fast-moving markets where established players and new entrants constantly try to capture market share. Rivals like Xero and Sage are expanding quickly, while AI-based platforms and government programs such as the IRS Direct File increase pressure. If competitors offer simpler, cheaper, or more innovative solutions, Intuit could face slower growth or customer losses in areas like accounting, tax preparation, and personal finance. Cybersecurity is another major risk since the company manages vast amounts of sensitive financial and personal data across its platforms, making it an attractive target for cyberattacks. A single breach could harm customer trust and damage its reputation, especially given the interconnected nature of its products and reliance on external partners. Regulatory risk is also important because Intuit operates in heavily regulated sectors such as tax preparation, finance, and artificial intelligence, where frequent rule changes could increase costs, limit products, or lead to fines and scrutiny, as seen in past TurboTax investigations. On the positive side, artificial intelligence is a strong reason to invest in Intuit. The company has built one of the most advanced AI ecosystems in the financial software industry, using its extensive data and expertise to automate complex tasks and provide personalized insights that drive efficiency, engagement, and revenue growth. Intuit’s consumer platform is another growth driver, combining TurboTax and Credit Karma into one ecosystem that helps consumers manage their finances year-round. This integration increases customer engagement, creates cross-selling opportunities, and strengthens Intuit’s position beyond tax preparation. Lastly, Intuit’s focus on the mid-market is unlocking a large $89 billion opportunity among growing businesses that need integrated financial solutions. The success of QuickBooks Online Advanced and Intuit Enterprise Suite shows strong demand for tools that help automate operations, reduce costs, and improve decision-making, setting up long-term growth potential. Overall, I believe Intuit is a high-quality company, and buying shares around its intrinsic value of the Ten Cap price about $510 would be a strong long-term investment.

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