top of page
Search

Domino's: Is it time to own a slice of this business?

  • Glenn
  • Jun 4, 2023
  • 23 min read

Updated: Mar 24


Domino’s Pizza is one of the largest pizza companies in the world, focused on delivery and carryout. The company has built a simple but powerful business model based on franchising, a strong supply chain, and easy digital ordering, which makes it convenient for customers and efficient to run. With growth coming from opening new stores, launching new menu items and promotions, and expanding how customers order through carryout, loyalty, and delivery apps, Domino’s is positioned to keep growing over time. The question remains: Does this pizza leader deserve a spot in your portfolio?


This is not a financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and I only do these post in order to do my own analysis and elaborate about my decisions, especially for my copiers and followers. If you consider investing in any of the ideas I present, you should do your own research or contact a professional financial advisor, as all investing comes with a risk of losing money. You are also more than welcome to copy me. 


For full disclosure, I should mention that I do not own any shares in Domino’s Pizza at the time of writing this analysis. If you would like to copy or view my portfolio, you can find instructions on how to do so here. If you want to purchase shares or fractional shares of Domino’s Pizza, you can do so through eToro. eToro is a highly user-friendly platform that allows you to get started on investing with as little as $50.



The Business


Domino’s Pizza has built a highly efficient and scalable business model centered around franchising, vertical integration, and a relentless focus on delivery and carryout. The company operates primarily as a franchisor, with around 99% of its more than 22.000 stores owned by independent franchisees, which allows Domino’s to grow with limited capital while generating stable, high-margin revenue through royalties, fees, and supply chain sales. Its operations are structured into U.S. stores, international franchise, and supply chain, with the latter being the largest contributor to revenue as Domino’s produces and distributes dough, ingredients, and equipment to its franchisees. This vertically integrated system is a key part of the business model, as it ensures consistency, lowers costs through scale, and strengthens alignment with franchisees, who benefit from convenience and competitive pricing while Domino’s captures additional revenue. The company’s store model is deliberately simple, focused on delivery and carryout rather than dine-in, which reduces costs, improves unit economics, and allows for faster expansion and higher returns on invested capital. Internationally, Domino’s expands through master franchise agreements, where partners are responsible for local growth and operations, enabling the company to scale globally with minimal operational complexity. The strength of the model is reflected in its ability to drive both same store sales growth and new store openings, which together fuel royalty and supply chain revenue growth over time. Domino’s competitive moat is built on a combination of scale, brand strength, technology, supply chain integration, and a highly capable franchise network, all of which reinforce each other and create a system that is difficult to replicate. The company benefits from being the largest pizza chain in the world, which gives it significant purchasing power, the largest advertising budget in the category, and strong brand recognition associated with value, convenience, and reliable delivery. Its vertically integrated supply chain provides cost advantages and consistency that competitors struggle to match, while also deepening relationships with franchisees through profit sharing and operational support. Domino’s has also developed a meaningful technological edge, with a large majority of orders coming through digital channels, supported by its proprietary ordering platforms, loyalty program, and internal operating systems that improve efficiency and customer experience. This digital ecosystem increases order frequency, enhances convenience, and creates switching costs for customers. At the same time, the company’s franchise model is strengthened by its rigorous selection and training process, as most franchisees start as employees and build deep operational expertise over many years, resulting in strong execution and attractive unit economics that attract further expansion. Domino’s fortressing strategy, where it increases store density to improve delivery times and service quality, further reinforces its competitive position by making it harder for competitors to match its speed and convenience. While competition exists from players like Pizza Hut and Papa John’s as well as local operators internationally, Domino’s combination of scale, efficiency, and continuous innovation has allowed it to outperform peers and maintain leadership in the pizza delivery category.


Management


Russell Weiner serves as the CEO of Domino’s Pizza, a role he assumed in 2022 after more than a decade of leadership within the company. He joined Domino’s in 2008 and has since held multiple senior roles, including COO, President of the Americas, and Chief Marketing Officer, giving him deep operational and strategic insight across the business. Prior to joining Domino’s, Russell Weiner led PepsiCo’s North American cola business, where he developed strong expertise in brand management, pricing, and large scale consumer marketing. He holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Government from Cornell University and an MBA in Marketing and International Business from New York University’s Stern School of Business. He currently serves on the board of directors at Domino’s, as well as on the board of The Clorox Company. During his tenure as Chief Marketing Officer, Russell Weiner was the architect of the “Pizza Turnaround” campaign, a bold and transparent repositioning of the brand that acknowledged past shortcomings and rebuilt consumer trust. This campaign became a defining moment in Domino’s resurgence and laid the foundation for its leadership in both innovation and customer engagement, earning him recognition as Brandweek’s Marketer of the Year in the restaurant category in 2010. As President of the Americas, he played a central role in driving domestic growth, where retail sales increased from $3 billion to $8 billion, store count expanded by 25%, and market share roughly doubled, supported by a focus on product quality, operational execution, and digital adoption. Russell Weiner has also been closely involved in advancing Domino’s technology platform and its fortressing strategy, which focuses on increasing store density to improve delivery times and customer convenience, both of which have become key drivers of the company’s competitive advantage. Since becoming CEO, he has emphasized continuity in strategy while reinforcing a culture of continuous improvement, long term thinking, and disciplined execution across the global franchise system. In a recent earnings call, he stated, “Our system understands that to be the best, you need to beat the best, even when the best may be yourself,” reflecting a leadership philosophy centered on constant self evaluation and innovation. Given his long tenure within the company, proven track record of driving growth, and deep understanding of Domino’s integrated business model, I believe Russell Weiner is well positioned to lead the company through its next phase of expansion and value creation.


The Numbers


The first number we will look into is the return on invested capital, also known as ROIC. We want to see a 10-year history, with all numbers exceeding 10% in each year. Domino’s has consistently achieved a high ROIC above 50% in every year over the past decade, which is very impressive. There are several reasons why Domino’s has been able to achieve such a high ROIC and why it is likely to continue doing so in the future. One is its franchise based, asset light structure. With about 99% of stores operated by franchisees, Domino’s avoids most of the capital expenditures associated with opening and operating restaurants. Instead of building out a large company owned store base, Domino’s earns royalties, which are high margin revenue, based on franchisee sales. This allows the company to generate strong cash flows without tying up significant amounts of capital in physical assets. Another reason is its scalable supply chain business. Domino’s operates a vertically integrated supply chain in the U.S. and Canada, manufacturing and distributing key ingredients like dough, cheese, and toppings to franchisees. While this segment does require some investment in facilities and logistics, it benefits from economies of scale and produces recurring revenue as system wide sales increase. The company’s supply chain centers serve thousands of stores efficiently, keeping invested capital low relative to output. Domino’s also benefits from the fact that it typically receives cash quickly from customers and franchisees, while paying its suppliers later, which reduces the amount of capital needed to run the business. In addition, the company’s technology investments are highly scalable, meaning that digital ordering platforms and internal systems can support growing volumes without requiring proportional increases in capital, which supports high returns as the business expands. The company has also reduced its capital base over time through refranchising and significant share repurchases, which lowers equity and increases ROIC, meaning part of the very high ROIC reflects both strong underlying economics and an efficient balance sheet structure. Finally, Domino’s benefits from strong franchisee economics. Thanks to efficient operations, a widely recognized brand, and advanced digital ordering systems, Domino’s stores tend to have attractive unit level returns. This drives franchisee interest in expanding the store base, allowing Domino’s to grow without needing to fund new store openings directly. As more stores open, the company benefits through increased royalty and supply chain revenue, all with relatively limited capital investment. Hence, I expect that Domino’s will continue to achieve a high ROIC in the future, although the exact level may fluctuate depending on investments in supply chain capacity, technology, and expansion, but the underlying business model should continue to support returns that are well above most companies.



The next numbers are the book value + dividend. In my old format this was known as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used to use in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it moving forward. As you are used to see the numbers in percentage, I have decided to share both the numbers and the percentage growth year over year. To put it simply, equity is the part of the company that belongs to its shareholders – like the portion of a house you truly own after paying off part of the mortgage. Growing equity over time means the company is becoming more valuable for its owners. So, when we track book value plus dividends, we’re essentially looking at how much value is being built for shareholders year after year. It is therefore worth noting that Domino’s has had negative equity for all ten years, which at first glance might seem concerning. However, there is a clear explanation for this. The main reason is the company’s long standing and aggressive share repurchase program. When a company buys back its own stock, the cost of those shares is deducted from shareholders’ equity. If buybacks are large and sustained over time, as they have been in Domino’s case, this can push equity into negative territory. Domino’s has consistently returned capital to shareholders through both buybacks and dividends, often using its strong free cash flow to do so, and at times also using debt to accelerate these returns. This means that the negative equity is not a sign of a weak business, but rather a result of how the company has chosen to allocate capital. In fact, Domino’s continues to generate strong cash flows and high returns on capital, which indicates that the underlying business remains very healthy. That said, negative equity does reduce the margin of safety, as the company relies more on its ongoing cash generation to meet its obligations. Therefore, it becomes more important to monitor factors such as earnings stability, free cash flow, and the level of debt relative to earnings to ensure that the company can comfortably support its capital return strategy. Overall, I do not view Domino’s negative equity as a major concern, but rather as a byproduct of shareholder friendly capital allocation, as long as the business continues to perform and generate strong cash flows.



Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins offer a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. Over the past decade, Domino’s has generated strong free cash flow, although it has been somewhat volatile from year to year. This volatility is mainly driven by changes in how much the company chooses to invest in areas such as its supply chain, technology, and infrastructure, as well as timing differences in when cash is received and when expenses are paid. For example, years with higher investments in supply chain capacity or new initiatives can temporarily reduce free cash flow, while periods with lower investment needs or stronger sales can lead to higher free cash flow. Despite this, the overall trend has been positive, with free cash flow reaching a record high in 2025. At the same time, the levered free cash flow margin also reached its highest level, which reflects the strength and efficiency of the business model. One of the key reasons for this improvement is that Domino’s continues to grow sales across its system, both through new store openings and higher sales per store, while many of its costs grow more slowly. In addition, the company’s asset light franchise model means that a large portion of additional revenue comes from high margin royalties and supply chain sales, which translate efficiently into free cash flow. The increasing share of digital orders also improves efficiency, reduces errors, and supports higher profitability. While margins may fluctuate slightly depending on investments and market conditions, the underlying structure of the business suggests that Domino’s should be able to maintain strong free cash flow over time, even if it does not increase every single year. In terms of capital allocation, Domino’s uses its free cash flow primarily to return capital to shareholders and to reinvest selectively in the business. The company has a long track record of increasing its dividend, including a recent 15% increase, and it continues to repurchase shares. These buybacks are a key reason why equity has declined over time, as discussed earlier. The free cash flow yield is at its highest level in more than a decade, which suggests that the shares are trading at a more attractive valuation than usual. However, we will revisit valuation later in the analysis.



Another important aspect to consider is the level of debt. It is crucial to determine whether a business has manageable debt that can be repaid within a period of three years. We do this by dividing the total long term debt by earnings. Based on this, Domino’s has debt equal to roughly 7,9 years of earnings. This is higher than I would like to see, but it is not surprising given the company’s capital allocation strategy. Domino’s has benefited from low interest rates in the past and has used debt to fund share repurchases and return capital to shareholders. This has helped boost returns, but it also means the company carries more debt than many other businesses. That said, Domino’s generates strong and stable cash flows, which gives it the ability to service its obligations. In addition, the company’s asset light business model requires relatively limited ongoing investment, which further supports its ability to handle its debt. Overall, while the debt level is elevated and worth monitoring, it appears manageable as long as the business continues to perform and generate strong cash flows.


Unlock Exclusive Seeking Alpha Discounts – Level Up Your Investing With Zero Risk

If you’ve been thinking about improving your investing process, this is the easiest way to start. These offers are only available through my links, and the Premium plan even comes with a 100% risk-free 7-day trial. Try everything for a week, and if it’s not for you, just cancel. You lose nothing.


1) Seeking Alpha Premium — Try It Free for 7 Days

Access the tools I personally use every day:

• Earnings transcripts

• Stock screeners

• Deep-dive analysis

• Portfolio tracking

• Market news with context that actually matters


Special Price: $269/year (normally $299) + 7-day free trial (for new users only)


Try Premium Free for 7 Days → HERE


(Explore everything — cancel anytime during the trial and pay $0.)


2) Alpha Picks — Proven Stock Ideas

This stock-picking service has delivered +287% returns vs. the S&P 500’s +77% (July 2022–Nov 2025).Great for investors who want curated, long-term picks backed by data.


Special Price: $449/year (normally $499)


Get Alpha Picks → HERE


(Although Alpha Picks doesn’t offer a free trial, its historical outperformance means the subscription can often pay for itself quickly if results persist. For many investors, the potential return far outweighs the upfront cost).


3) Premium + Alpha Picks Bundle — Best Value

Get both services together and save $159.Perfect if you want both broad tools and high-conviction stock ideas.


Special Price: $639/year (normally $798)


Get the Bundle → HERE


(This bundle doesn’t include a free trial, but it gives you both services at a $159 discount. You get Premium’s in-depth research plus Alpha Picks’ high-performing recommendations, making it the most comprehensive option for serious investors.)


Risks


Competition is a risk for Domino’s because it operates in one of the most intensely competitive parts of the food industry, where barriers to entry are relatively low and consumers have many alternatives. In the U.S., Domino’s competes directly with large national chains such as Pizza Hut, Papa John’s, and Little Caesars, as well as a wide range of regional chains and independent pizzerias that often compete aggressively on price, promotions, and local brand loyalty. Internationally, the competitive landscape is similar, with strong local players that understand regional tastes and consumer preferences, making it more challenging for Domino’s to maintain or grow market share. However, the competitive pressure extends beyond traditional pizza chains. Domino’s also competes with a broader set of food options, including other quick service restaurants, supermarkets, convenience stores, and meal kit providers, all of which have expanded their ready to eat and delivery offerings. As these alternatives improve in quality, affordability, and convenience, consumers have more choices than ever, which can reduce demand for Domino’s products or force the company to compete more aggressively on price. In addition, the rise of delivery platforms such as Uber Eats and DoorDash has intensified competition by giving consumers easy access to a wide variety of restaurants through a single app, increasing the number of substitutes and raising customer expectations for speed, pricing, and convenience. Domino’s must also compete for resources such as labor, franchisees, and attractive store locations. The company relies heavily on its franchise network, and a shortage of qualified operators or employees, particularly delivery drivers, could limit expansion or negatively impact service levels. At the same time, franchisees are not required to purchase all supplies from Domino’s, which means that external suppliers could compete on price or service and weaken the economics of the company’s supply chain business.


Macroeconomic conditions are a risk for Domino’s because they affect both the cost structure of the business and the willingness of consumers to spend on its products. On the cost side, Domino’s is exposed to increases in key inputs such as food, labor, energy, transportation, and rent, many of which are outside of the company’s control. Ingredients like cheese, which make up a significant portion of costs, can fluctuate due to factors such as weather, seasonality, and global supply and demand, making it difficult to predict and manage expenses. At the same time, labor costs have risen in recent years due to minimum wage increases and a tight labor market, which has made it more expensive to attract and retain employees. These pressures do not only impact Domino’s directly, but also its franchisees, whose profitability may decline if costs rise faster than sales. If franchisee economics weaken, it could reduce incentives to open new stores, slow expansion, or even lead to store closures, which would directly affect Domino’s growth. On the demand side, Domino’s is exposed to changes in consumer spending, particularly among lower income customers who are more sensitive to price increases. During periods of economic uncertainty, high inflation, or rising interest rates, consumers may cut back on discretionary spending, including takeout and delivery, or shift toward cheaper alternatives such as cooking at home. This creates a challenging environment where Domino’s may need to raise prices to offset higher costs, but doing so risks reducing demand and traffic. In addition, broader economic factors such as unemployment, geopolitical events, or disruptions to supply chains can further impact both costs and consumer behavior. Because many of these factors are beyond the company’s control, Domino’s must continuously balance pricing, value perception, and cost management to protect profitability without losing customers.


Changing consumer preferences is a risk for Domino’s because its business is highly concentrated around a single product category, which makes it more exposed if eating habits shift over time. One of the clearest trends is the growing focus on health and wellness, where more consumers are seeking lower calorie, higher protein, and less processed food options. Pizza is often perceived as an indulgent product, and as awareness around obesity, diabetes, and general health increases, some consumers may choose to reduce their consumption of these types of foods. This is particularly relevant in developed markets, where demand for transparency, healthier ingredients, and balanced diets continues to grow. A newer and potentially more structural factor is the increasing use of GLP 1 weight loss drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy, which suppress appetite and lead to lower calorie intake. Early data suggests that users of these drugs eat less, snack less, and in many cases dine out less frequently, which could gradually reduce demand for calorie dense foods like pizza. While Domino’s has not yet seen a measurable impact and management has noted that dinner occasions, which are often shared, may be more resilient, the long term effect remains uncertain and could become more meaningful if adoption increases significantly. Beyond health trends, consumer preferences are constantly evolving due to generational shifts and changing lifestyles, which can be more difficult for a focused concept like Domino’s to adapt to over time. Younger consumers often expect a higher degree of customization, whether that is through build your own meals, flexible portion sizes, or the ability to tailor orders to specific dietary needs. At the same time, there is a growing interest in plant based options, alternative proteins, and lighter menu choices, which are becoming more mainstream rather than niche preferences. Sustainability is also becoming increasingly important, with consumers paying more attention to packaging, sourcing, and the environmental impact of their food choices. While Domino’s has made progress in areas such as digital ordering and convenience, its core menu and operating model are still centered around pizza, which may limit its ability to fully meet these evolving expectations compared to more flexible food concepts.


Reasons to invest


Opening new stores is a reason to invest in Domino’s because it is not only a proven growth lever but also a central part of the company’s long term competitive strategy. Domino’s continues to expand its store base, and this growth is not simply about adding more locations, it is about expanding profitably. The company’s store level economics remain among the best in the quick service restaurant industry, with estimated average U.S. franchisee profitability of around $160,000 per store, which creates strong incentives for franchisees to reinvest and open new locations. This is a key advantage, as growth is largely funded by franchisees rather than the company itself, allowing Domino’s to scale without requiring significant capital. As a result, each new store contributes incremental royalty and supply chain revenue, which are both high margin and highly scalable. A critical component of Domino’s store expansion strategy is its fortressing model, which involves opening new stores in close proximity to existing ones. While this may seem counterintuitive, it improves delivery times, enhances food quality, and increases convenience for customers, particularly for carryout orders, where a large portion of demand comes from within a very short distance of the store. By increasing store density, Domino’s not only improves the customer experience but also drives higher order frequency and a greater mix of carryout, which tends to be more profitable due to lower delivery costs. At the same time, fortressing strengthens Domino’s competitive position by making it harder for competitors to enter or gain traction in those areas, effectively allowing Domino’s to capture a larger share of local demand. Store expansion also plays a direct role in market share gains and long term growth. Domino’s has consistently been one of the fastest growing restaurant chains in terms of net store openings, and this has translated into steady gains in market share over time. Management believes there is still significant room for expansion, even in mature markets like the United States, where Domino’s market share is still below that of leading brands in other quick service categories. Internationally, the opportunity is even larger, with markets such as China and India continuing to add hundreds of stores each year. Importantly, Domino’s has demonstrated that its stores tend to remain open and profitable, with very few closures, which indicates that expansion is disciplined and supported by strong underlying economics. Finally, the combination of new store openings and stable same store sales creates a powerful growth engine. Even modest growth in sales at existing stores, combined with steady expansion of the store base, can drive consistent growth in system wide sales, royalties, and profits over time. Because Domino’s benefits from both the volume of stores and the performance of each store, opening new locations compounds growth across the entire system.


Innovation is a reason to invest in Domino’s because it plays a central role in driving growth, maintaining relevance with consumers, and reinforcing the company’s competitive advantages over time. Domino’s has a long track record of consistently introducing new products, promotions, and operational improvements that not only attract new customers but also increase order frequency and average ticket size. Recent examples such as Parmesan Stuffed Crust and the Best Deal Ever promotion highlight how innovation at Domino’s is not just about launching new items, but about creating initiatives that improve both customer appeal and franchisee profitability. Parmesan Stuffed Crust, for instance, delivered strong results across key metrics, including mix, new customer acquisition, and higher average order value due to its premium pricing. At the same time, value focused promotions like Best Deal Ever have shown that Domino’s can offer compelling pricing to consumers while still maintaining strong profitability, supported by its scale and operational efficiency. This ability to combine value and profitability is a significant advantage in a competitive and price sensitive industry. Another important aspect of Domino’s innovation strategy is its consistency and long term focus. Management has emphasized that its initiatives are not one time events, but are designed to build on each other and contribute to growth over multiple years. Products like New York Style pizza and Parmesan Stuffed Crust are expected to continue driving sales beyond their initial launch, while new innovations are added on top each year. This creates a steady pipeline of growth drivers that can support both same store sales and overall system growth. In addition, Domino’s benefits from its operational capabilities, as its stores are able to execute even more complex products at high volumes without compromising speed or quality. This makes it easier for the company to introduce new menu items and promotions that competitors may struggle to replicate at scale. Innovation at Domino’s also extends beyond the menu to areas such as pricing strategy, marketing, and technology, all of which contribute to its ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences. The company’s focus on offering strong value while maintaining profitability shows a deep understanding of its customer base, particularly in more challenging economic environments. At the same time, its scale allows it to support these initiatives through large marketing campaigns and efficient supply chain operations, further amplifying their impact. Looking ahead, management expects to continue launching multiple product innovations each year, which suggests that innovation will remain a consistent driver of growth.


Expanding sales channels is a reason to invest in Domino’s because it provides multiple, long lasting avenues for growth without requiring fundamental changes to the core business model. Domino’s has shown that it can successfully build and scale new ways for customers to order over time, and these channels tend to compound as they mature. One of the best examples is carryout, which has grown steadily since the company began focusing on it in 2010 and reached approximately $4,4 billion in 2025. What makes this especially attractive is that carryout orders are typically more profitable than delivery, as they involve lower labor and transportation costs. Despite this strong growth, Domino’s still has significant room to expand its share in carryout, suggesting that this channel can continue to contribute meaningfully to future growth. The company’s fortressing strategy, which increases store density, further supports this by making it more convenient for customers to pick up their orders, reinforcing a positive feedback loop between store growth and carryout demand. Another important growth channel is the company’s presence on aggregator platforms such as DoorDash and Uber Eats. For many years, Domino’s avoided these platforms, but it has now begun to expand into them in a disciplined way. Management has emphasized that sales from these platforms are incremental, meaning they are reaching customers who might not otherwise order from Domino’s. Because the company is still not at its full potential on these platforms, there is clear room for growth as awareness increases and marketing efforts improve. These platforms also expand Domino’s reach, particularly among younger and convenience focused consumers who prefer ordering through a single app. Importantly, Domino’s is managing this channel carefully to ensure that it remains profitable, rather than simply chasing volume. The loyalty program is another key growth driver that strengthens Domino’s overall ecosystem. With more than 37 million active users and strong growth following its relaunch, the program helps increase order frequency and build long term customer relationships. By attracting more light users and carryout customers, the loyalty program not only drives additional sales but also supports higher margin transactions. It also allows Domino’s to market directly to its customers with personalized offers, improving both effectiveness and efficiency. Over time, this creates a compounding effect where engaged customers order more frequently and become more valuable to the business. Taken together, these expanding sales channels create a diversified and resilient growth engine. Domino’s is not reliant on a single way of reaching customers but instead benefits from multiple complementary channels that reinforce each other. Carryout improves profitability, aggregator platforms expand reach, and the loyalty program increases engagement and repeat purchases. Because these channels are still growing and have not yet reached their full potential, they provide a clear path for continued sales growth and margin expansion over the long term.


Support the Blog


I want to keep the blog free and accessible for everyone. If you enjoy the content and would like to support it, you can buy me a cup of coffee through PayPal. Every little bit helps and is truly appreciated!


Valuation


Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators for free.


The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 17,57, which is from the year 2025. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 7%. Finbox expects EPS to grow by 7,6% in the next five years. Additionally, I have selected a projected future P/E ratio of 15, which is double the growth rate. This decision is based on Domino's historically higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Finally, our minimum acceptable rate of return has already been established at 15%. After performing the calculations, we determined the sticker price (also known as fair value or intrinsic value) to be $119,61. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy Domino's at a price of $59,80 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.


The second calculation is known as the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that a company owner (or stockholder) receives on the purchase price of the company essentially represents its return on investment. The minimum annual return should be at least 10%, which I calculate as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 792, and capital expenditures were 121. I attempted to analyze their annual report to calculate the percentage of capital expenditures allocated to maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 85 in our calculations. The tax provision was 169. We have 33,8 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (792 – 85 + 169) / 33,8 x 10 = $259,17 in Ten Cap price.


The final calculation is referred to as the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With Domino's free cash flow per share at $19,88 and a growth rate of 7%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is $218,24.


Conclusion


Domino’s is an intriguing company with a strong management team. The company has built its moat through a combination of scale, brand strength, technology, supply chain integration, and a highly capable franchise network, all of which reinforce each other and create a system that is difficult to replicate. Domino’s has consistently achieved a very high ROIC, which is a trend that is expected to continue. Free cash flow reached a record high in 2025 and is expected to grow over time as the business expands. Competition is a risk for Domino’s because it operates in a highly competitive market with many alternatives, ranging from global pizza chains to local restaurants and other food options. This intense competition can pressure pricing, reduce demand, and make it harder to maintain market share and profitability over time. Macroeconomic conditions are a risk for Domino’s because rising costs and weaker consumer spending can pressure both profitability and demand. Higher input and labor costs can reduce margins, while economic uncertainty may lead customers to cut back on discretionary spending like takeout, making it harder to grow sales. Changing consumer preferences are a risk for Domino’s because it is heavily reliant on pizza, which may fall out of favor as consumers shift toward healthier, more customizable, or more sustainable food options. Trends such as increased health awareness and the potential impact of GLP 1 drugs could reduce demand for calorie dense foods, making it harder for Domino’s to maintain growth over time. Opening new stores is a reason to invest in Domino’s because it drives long term growth through a scalable, franchise funded model with strong unit economics. Each new store adds high margin royalty and supply chain revenue while strengthening market share, improving convenience, and reinforcing the company’s competitive position. Innovation is a reason to invest in Domino’s because it consistently drives growth by attracting new customers, increasing order frequency, and improving profitability. Through a steady pipeline of product launches, promotions, and operational improvements, Domino’s is able to stay relevant, enhance its competitive advantages, and support long term sales and earnings growth. Expanding sales channels is a reason to invest in Domino’s because it creates multiple, compounding growth drivers that increase both reach and profitability over time. Channels such as carryout, aggregator platforms, and the loyalty program expand the customer base, improve margins, and drive repeat orders, supporting long term sales growth. Overall, I believe there are many things to like about Domino’s, and buying shares at the Ten Cap price of $259 would be a good long term investment.


My personal goal with investing is financial freedom. It also means that to obtain that, I do different things to build my wealth. If you have some extra hours to spare each month, you can turn a few hours a week into a substantial amount of money in a few years. If you are interested to know how I do it, you can read this post.


I hope you enjoyed my analysis! While I can’t post about every company I analyze, you can stay updated on my trades by following me on Twitter. I share real-time updates whenever I buy or sell, so if you’re making your own investment decisions, be sure to follow along!


Some of the greatest investors in the world believe in karma, and to receive, you will have to give (Warren Buffett and Mohnish Pabrai are great examples). If you appreciated my analysis and want to get some good karma, I would kindly ask you to donate a bit to SANCCOB. They rescue and rehabilitate penguins in South Africa, you can even adobt a penguin for yourself or a loved one. If you have a little to spare, please donate here. Even a little will make a huge difference to save these wonderful animals. Thank you.



 
 
 

Comments


Never Miss a Post. Subscribe Now!

Thanks for submitting!

© 2020 by Glenn Jørgensen.

bottom of page