The Campbell’s Company: Much More Than Just Soup.

The Campbell’s Company is a long-standing player in the North American food industry, with a portfolio that spans soups, sauces, broths, snacks, and bakery products. Best known for its iconic red-and-white soup cans, the company has evolved into a diversified branded food business with leading positions across both Meals and Beverages and Snacks. From staple products that benefit from at-home cooking to well-known snack brands like Goldfish and Pepperidge Farm, Campbell combines stability with selective growth opportunities. With consumers changing how they shop and eat, and with Campbell investing in innovation and improving execution, the key question is whether the company can continue to create value for long-term shareholders.

This is not a financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and I only do these post in order to do my own analysis and elaborate about my decisions, especially for my copiers and followers. If you consider investing in any of the ideas I present, you should do your own research or contact a professional financial advisor, as all investing comes with a risk of losing money. You are also more than welcome to copy me. 

For full disclosure, I should mention that I do not own any shares in The Campbell’s Company at the time of writing this analysis. If you would like to copy or view my portfolio, you can find instructions on how to do so here. If you want to purchase shares or fractional shares of The Campbell’s Company, you can do so through eToro. eToro is a highly user-friendly platform that allows you to get started on investing with as little as $50.

The Business

The Campbell's Company traces its roots back to 1869 and has been headquartered in Camden, New Jersey since its inception. Formerly known as Campbell Soup Company, the business rebranded to The Campbell’s Company to reflect its evolution from a soup-centric manufacturer into a diversified branded food group. Today, it is one of the largest processed food companies in the United States. The company operates through two primary segments: Meals & Beverages and Snacks. The Meals & Beverages segment contains Campbell’s legacy and center-of-plate brands. This includes condensed and ready-to-serve soups, Chunky soups, Swanson broths and canned poultry, Pacific Foods broths, soups and non-dairy beverages, Prego pasta sauces, Pace Mexican sauces, SpaghettiOs, Campbell’s gravies and dinner sauces, and V8 juices. Following the acquisition of Sovos Brands in 2024, the segment also includes Rao’s pasta sauces, dry pasta, frozen entrées, frozen pizza and soups, as well as Michael Angelo’s frozen meals. The segment serves both retail and foodservice customers primarily in the U.S. and Canada. The Snacks segment functions as Campbell’s designated growth engine. It includes a portfolio of scaled and well-recognized snack brands such as Goldfish crackers, Pepperidge Farm cookies, crackers and fresh bakery products, Snyder’s of Hanover pretzels, Lance sandwich crackers, Cape Cod and Kettle Brand potato chips, Late July snacks, and Snack Factory pretzel crisps. Campbell’s primary competitive moat is rooted in brand equity built over more than 155 years. Few food companies can match the level of familiarity and trust associated with the Campbell’s name, and the iconic red-and-white soup cans remain among the most recognizable consumer packaged goods in the world. This brand recognition translates into durable shelf space, habitual purchasing behavior, and resilience during economic downturns. Beyond the flagship soup franchise, Campbell has assembled a portfolio of “power brands” across both segments. Goldfish, Pepperidge Farm, Snyder’s of Hanover, and Rao’s each occupy strong positions within their respective categories and benefit from high household penetration and repeat purchasing. In particular, Goldfish has developed deep loyalty among families and younger consumers. Scale and distribution represent a second pillar of the moat. Campbell’s manufacturing footprint, procurement scale, and national distribution network across retail and foodservice channels create barriers to entry for smaller competitors. The direct-store-delivery model in Snacks further enhances execution, shelf placement, and speed to market, advantages that are difficult to replicate without significant capital and operational complexity.

Management

Mick Beekhuizen serves as the CEO of The Campbell's Company, a role he assumed in 2024 after spending more than a decade inside the organization. His appointment reflects a deliberate choice by the board to elevate a seasoned internal operator with deep familiarity with Campbell’s brands, culture, and strategic challenges. Prior to becoming CEO, Mick Beekhuizen served as President of Meals and Beverages, where he oversaw the company’s largest and most cash generative segment, including its iconic soup franchise and a broad portfolio of sauces, broths, and beverages. Before joining Campbell’s in 2019, Mick Beekhuizen built a long career in the global consumer packaged goods industry. He spent over twenty years at Mondelēz International and its predecessor Kraft Foods, holding senior leadership roles across North America, Europe, and Asia. His experience spanned both emerging and developed markets and covered multiple food categories, giving him a strong grounding in brand management, pricing, cost discipline, and large scale operations. During this period, he developed a reputation as a commercially minded leader with a strong operational backbone. At Campbell’s, Mick Beekhuizen has been closely involved in reshaping the portfolio and sharpening execution. As President of Meals and Beverages, he led efforts to stabilize volumes in core categories, improve margins through productivity initiatives, and integrate acquisitions such as Sovos Brands and its Rao’s platform. His promotion to CEO comes at a time when the company is balancing the need to defend its legacy franchises while leaning more heavily into snacks and premium meals as growth drivers. Mick Beekhuizen is generally viewed as a pragmatic and execution focused leader rather than a transformational visionary. His leadership style emphasizes operational discipline, brand stewardship, and incremental improvement over bold strategic pivots. As CEO, his mandate is clear: protect the company’s strong cash generating base, successfully integrate recent acquisitions, reduce leverage, and gradually restore confidence in Campbell’s ability to deliver sustainable organic growth. Given his deep internal knowledge and extensive consumer packaged goods background, Mick Beekhuizen appears well suited to lead Campbell’s through this transitional phase, even as the margin for error remains narrow.

The Numbers

The first number we will look into is the return on invested capital, also known as ROIC. We want to see a 10-year history, with all numbers exceeding 10% in each year. For most of the past decade, The Campbell's Company has been able to generate ROIC above 10% because it operates a stable and relatively capital-efficient consumer staples business. Its products are everyday food items with steady demand, which means the company does not need to reinvest large amounts of capital to maintain sales. Campbell also benefits from scale in mature categories such as soup and snacks, allowing manufacturing, procurement, and distribution costs to be spread across very large volumes. In addition, much of the company’s production base and brand portfolio was built many years ago. Because many of these factories and brands were built long ago, they require little new investment today but still generate solid cash. Over time, this allows the company to earn strong returns without having to put much additional capital to work. At times, Campbell’s returns have dipped below 10% because short-term challenges temporarily offset the company’s long-standing strengths. When the company buys another business, the purchase adds a lot of value to the balance sheet right away, but it takes time before the new brands fully contribute to profits. This can make returns look weaker for a few years after a deal. Higher costs also play a role. When prices for ingredients, packaging, labor, or transportation rise quickly, it can take time before Campbell can raise prices enough to fully offset those increases. Since the company operates in mature food categories, even small increases in costs can have a visible impact on overall performance. Changes to the portfolio, such as selling brands or reorganizing operations, can also reduce efficiency for a period while the business adjusts. The decline in ROIC to just under 10% in fiscal year 2025 fits this pattern and is not, on its own, a major concern. The acquisition of Sovos Brands expanded the capital base meaningfully, while the contribution from Rao’s and related brands has not yet fully offset that increase. At the same time, the core business experienced modest volume and margin pressure. The combination of higher invested capital and slightly weaker profitability explains most of the ROIC decline. What matters more than the precise 2025 figure is the direction from here. A ROIC of 9,7% remains solid for a large packaged food company operating in mature categories. If returns stabilize and improve as integration progresses, costs normalize, and leverage is reduced, the recent dip will likely prove temporary.

The next numbers are the book value + dividend. In my old format this was known as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used to use in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it moving forward. As you are used to see the numbers in percentage, I have decided to share both the numbers and the percentage growth year over year. To put it simply, equity is the part of the company that belongs to its shareholders – like the portion of a house you truly own after paying off part of the mortgage. Growing equity over time means the company is becoming more valuable for its owners. So, when we track book value plus dividends, we’re essentially looking at how much value is being built for shareholders year after year. Campbell has been able to grow its equity in most years mainly because it runs a stable, profitable business that consistently adds value over time. The Campbell's Company owns a portfolio of well-established food brands that generate steady profits, even in slow-growth categories. When a company earns money year after year and avoids major losses or write-downs, that value stays inside the business and increases the portion that belongs to shareholders. This is why equity has generally moved higher across the past decade. The years where equity growth was particularly strong often coincided with solid operating performance and favorable conditions, while weaker or negative years tend to reflect periods of higher costs, restructuring, or strategic changes that temporarily weighed on results. Importantly, these declines were not structural breaks, but rather years where short-term challenges slowed value creation. Looking ahead, equity is still likely to grow, but at a more modest and uneven pace. Campbell is a mature company facing slower growth, cost pressures, and the need to absorb recent acquisitions. That said, as long as the business remains profitable and avoids major missteps, it should continue to build value for shareholders over time.

Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins provide a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. For much of the past decade, The Campbell's Company generated very strong free cash flow because it was operating a stable portfolio with limited need for new investment. Over the last few years, that has changed. Higher costs for ingredients, packaging, labor, and transportation reduced the amount of cash left after running the business. At the same time, Campbell has been more active in reshaping its portfolio, which comes with integration costs, restructuring expenses, and higher interest payments after taking on more debt. These factors explain why both free cash flow and levered free cash flow are lower than they were earlier in the decade. This decline is noticeable, but it is not necessarily something to worry about on its own. The business is still generating meaningful cash every year, just less than during unusually strong periods like 2016 to 2020. What matters most is whether cash generation stabilizes at a healthy level rather than continuing to fall year after year. So far, the data suggests pressure, not collapse. Free cash flow improved in fiscal year 2025 mainly because some of the earlier headwinds began to ease. Cost pressures became more manageable and pricing actions taken in prior years had more time to flow through. Looking forward, free cash flow should gradually improve, but expectations need to be realistic. Campbell is a mature food company, so future increases are more likely to come from better cost control, smoother integration of recent acquisitions, and lower interest expenses as debt is reduced, rather than from rapid sales growth. If management executes well, free cash flow should trend upward over time, but it is unlikely to return quickly to the peak levels seen earlier in the decade. Campbell uses its free cash flow to maintain and improve its operations, support its brands through marketing, and reduce debt, particularly following acquisitions. It also uses free cash flow to return value to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. The free cash flow yield is at its highest level since 2019, which suggests the shares may be trading at an attractive valuation. However, valuation will be revisited later in the analysis.

Debt

Another important aspect to consider is the level of debt. It is important to assess whether a business carries debt that can realistically be repaid within a three-year period by dividing total long-term debt by earnings. After reviewing the financials of The Campbell’s Company, I find that the company has 10,1 years of earnings in debt, which is significantly higher than what I would normally be comfortable with. In his book Rule #1 Investing, Phil Town highlights the risks associated with excessive leverage, noting that a business with a large amount of debt relative to its income faces an uncertain future, particularly if economic conditions deteriorate. This perspective is relevant here, as elevated debt reduces financial flexibility and increases risk during weaker periods. That said, management has started to make some progress. On the most recent earnings call, the company pointed out that its overall debt level has come down slightly compared to last year. While the improvement is modest, it does indicate that reducing debt is at least moving in the right direction. Even so, leverage remains high, and I would like to see more meaningful progress before becoming fully comfortable. Until the debt level is brought down further, it remains an important risk factor to keep in mind when considering an investment in The Campbell’s Company.

Support the Blog

I want to keep the blog free and accessible for everyone. If you enjoy the content and would like to support it, you can buy me a cup of coffee through PayPal. Every little bit helps and is truly appreciated!

Risks

Competition is a risk for Campbell because it operates in one of the most crowded and aggressive parts of the consumer goods market, where advantages can erode quickly if a company fails to keep pace. The Campbell’s Company competes across nearly all of its categories against a wide range of rivals. These include large multinational food companies with greater financial and marketing resources, as well as private-label brands that typically compete on price. This competitive pressure affects everything from soups and sauces to snacks and beverages. Success depends on winning shelf space, maintaining visibility, meeting retailers’ sales expectations, and continuously justifying price premiums versus cheaper alternatives. Several of Campbell’s competitors are larger and can spend more aggressively on advertising, promotions, and innovation. This matters because shelf space in grocery stores is limited. Even when Campbell secures good placement, retailers closely track sales performance. If products do not sell as expected, shelf space can be reduced, making it harder to maintain volume and brand relevance. At the same time, retailers are increasingly allocating more space to their own private-label products, which are usually priced lower and tend to gain share during periods of economic stress or high inflation. Competition is particularly intense in faster-moving categories such as salty snacks. Areas like pretzels, kettle chips, and better-for-you snacks have low barriers to entry and attract constant new brands. This has made it difficult for Campbell to consistently grow some of its snack brands, with flat sales reported in parts of the portfolio despite heavy investment. In these categories, consumer tastes change quickly, and brand loyalty is less durable than in legacy products like soup. The changing retail landscape further intensifies competition. Campbell remains heavily exposed to traditional grocery stores, which are growing more slowly than channels such as club stores, dollar stores, and e-commerce. These channels often emphasize lower prices and stronger negotiating power, putting pressure on branded suppliers. Large customers are also demanding more promotions, customized products, and better terms, which can weigh on margins. Customer concentration adds to the risk. A small number of large retailers account for a significant portion of Campbell’s sales, with Walmart alone representing roughly one-fifth of revenue. If any of these customers reduce orders, push harder on pricing, or shift more space to private labels, the impact on sales and profitability could be meaningful.

Tariffs is a risk for Campbell because they increase costs in areas where the company has limited ability to adapt or switch suppliers. The Campbell’s Company expects tariffs to have a more meaningful impact in fiscal year 2026, with gross tariffs estimated at roughly 4 percent of cost of products sold. Even after mitigation efforts, a significant portion of these costs is expected to flow through to earnings. The largest exposure comes from steel and aluminum tariffs, which mainly affect the Meals and Beverages segment. Campbell relies on food-grade tinplate to produce its soup cans, and there is not enough domestic supply available in the United States. As a result, the company has no practical alternative but to import this material and absorb the associated tariffs. This limits flexibility and makes cost increases difficult to avoid, even with supplier negotiations or productivity initiatives. Tariffs also impact imported finished products. Rao’s sauces are primarily produced in Italy, and management has been clear that production will remain there to preserve product quality and brand authenticity. This means tariff costs tied to global trade policies directly affect this part of the portfolio, with little room to change sourcing without damaging the brand. Beyond these areas, Campbell faces additional exposure from broader global tariffs that affect ingredients, packaging, and other inputs sourced from specific regions. While the company can mitigate some of this pressure through inventory management, supplier collaboration, and cost savings, options are often limited by the availability of alternative suppliers. The financial impact is already visible in guidance. Management has indicated that roughly two thirds of the year-over-year decline in fiscal 2026 earnings expectations is driven by the net effect of tariffs. Passing these costs on through pricing is challenging in a competitive and price-sensitive market, which increases the risk to margins.

Consumers not maintaining a favorable perception of its brands is a risk for Campbell because the company’s business model depends heavily on trust, familiarity, and long-term brand value built over decades. The Campbell’s Company owns a portfolio of iconic brands, and much of their economic value comes not from patents or technology, but from how consumers feel about them. If that perception weakens, the impact can be swift and difficult to reverse. Brand strength is closely tied to the belief that products are high quality, consistent, and aligned with consumer expectations. Any event that undermines this trust, such as quality issues, negative publicity, or poorly received marketing, can damage brand value. Once confidence is shaken, consumers may quickly switch to competing brands or private-label alternatives, especially in categories like soup, sauces, and snacks where switching costs are low. The risk is amplified by the speed and reach of social and digital media. Negative stories, viral posts, or online criticism related to ingredients, packaging, sustainability practices, or corporate behavior can spread rapidly and shape public opinion before a company has time to respond. Even isolated incidents can escalate into broader reputational damage if they resonate with consumer concerns or cultural sensitivities. Recent history shows how quickly this can happen. The backlash against Bud Light following a controversial marketing campaign demonstrated how a misalignment between brand messaging and a core customer base can lead to boycotts, lost shelf space, declining market share, and substantial financial damage in a short period of time. While Campbell operates in food rather than beverages, the underlying lesson is the same: brand perception can shift abruptly, and the consequences can be severe. Because Campbell’s brands are central to its ability to command shelf space, maintain pricing, and generate steady sales, any sustained deterioration in consumer perception would likely lead to lower volumes, reduced retailer support, and weaker profitability. Maintaining trust, relevance, and a positive brand image is therefore not optional but essential to the company’s long-term performance.

Reasons to invest

Home cooking trends is a reason to invest in Campbell because the company’s Meals and Beverages portfolio is well aligned with how consumers are currently choosing to spend their money. The Campbell’s Company has benefited from a sustained shift toward cooking more meals at home, as consumers remain cautious and deliberate with their spending and increasingly look for value in everyday food choices. Cooking at home has become one of the main ways consumers define value, especially in an environment marked by inflation and economic uncertainty. This behavior directly supports demand for Campbell’s core products such as condensed cooking soups, broths, and Italian sauces, which are designed to be ingredients rather than finished meals. These products fit naturally into home cooking routines, making them more relevant when consumers prepare meals themselves instead of eating out or buying more expensive prepared options. This trend has translated into tangible performance. Campbell’s Meals and Beverages consumption has consistently outpaced its categories, with leadership brands gaining share while competitors struggled. In fiscal 2025, growth in Meals and Beverages consumption and share more than offset declines in the Snacks segment, highlighting the stabilizing role of home cooking in the overall portfolio. Broth has been a particularly strong contributor, with solid consumption growth driven by increased usage per household, especially among millennials and baby boomers. This suggests that home cooking is not limited to one demographic group but is broadly embedded across age segments. Italian sauces are another clear beneficiary. Rao’s and Prego hold the top two positions in dollar share, and Rao’s in particular continues to show strong momentum. The brand has returned to high single-digit consumption growth and is on track to become one of Campbell’s billion-dollar brands. Management continues to focus on increasing household penetration, which supports the idea that growth is coming not only from pricing, but from more consumers bringing these products into their regular cooking habits. Importantly, this is not a short-term spike tied to a single quarter. Management has repeatedly highlighted at-home cooking as a persistent tailwind, and the company is actively investing behind brands that benefit most from this behavior. Even if consumer spending patterns fluctuate, cooking at home tends to be resilient during periods of uncertainty, providing Campbell with a degree of downside protection.

Snack returning to growth is a reason to invest in Campbell because it represents a potential reacceleration in the company’s primary growth engine after a period of underperformance. While Meals and Beverages provides stability, long-term upside for The Campbell’s Company depends on restoring sustainable growth in Snacks. The quality of that recovery matters. Growth is emerging in categories and subsegments where consumer demand tends to be more resilient. In chips, brands such as Cape Cod, Kettle Brand, and Late July are positioned in premium and better-for-you niches, which continue to resonate with consumers. These subcategories are generally less driven by price alone and can support both volume and profitability over time. Goldfish, one of Campbell’s most important snack brands, is another key part of the investment case. While the brand has faced challenges, management believes the fundamentals remain strong. Product innovation, limited-time offerings, and improved multipack formats are helping to keep the brand relevant, and increased marketing support is aimed at returning Goldfish to a more consistent growth profile over time. Fresh bakery further supports the broader story. Even in a more cautious consumer environment, Campbell has been able to hold share through its premium Farmhouse buns and rolls. This suggests that consumers are still willing to trade up in snacks when the value proposition is clear, reinforcing the importance of brand strength and product differentiation. Management’s confidence in the Snacks portfolio is also supported by stable household penetration across many brands. This indicates that consumers have not turned away from Campbell’s snack offerings, but are instead adjusting how and when they purchase them. That distinction is important, as it implies that growth can be driven by better pricing strategies, pack sizes, distribution, and in-store execution rather than requiring a fundamental reset of the brands. Looking ahead, Campbell expects the Snacks business to stabilize and gradually return to growth through fiscal 2026. The company is focused on improving price-pack architecture, expanding distribution, and strengthening execution during key consumption moments such as back-to-school. Combined with a deliberate shift away from lower-margin partner brands toward a more focused portfolio of leadership brands, this creates a clearer path toward more sustainable and profitable growth in Snacks.

Product innovation is a reason to invest in Campbell because it supports relevance, growth, and long-term brand strength in an industry where consumer preferences continue to evolve. The Campbell’s Company operates in mature food categories, which means growth increasingly depends on introducing products that better match how and why consumers buy food today, rather than relying on volume expansion alone. Campbell has made innovation a clearer strategic priority by establishing a dedicated Growth Office to align product development more closely with consumer needs. This shift is aimed at ensuring that innovation is focused on areas that matter most to consumers, such as health and wellness, elevated taste, and new usage occasions. The early results suggest that this approach is resonating, as recent launches have performed well across both divisions. Innovation is already contributing meaningfully to the business. In fiscal 2025, new products accounted for roughly 3% of net sales, and management expects this contribution to grow as investment behind the portfolio increases. Importantly, these launches are not experimental or niche, but are extensions of existing leadership brands, which lowers execution risk and improves the likelihood of repeat purchases. Recent examples highlight the quality of Campbell’s innovation pipeline. In Snacks, Kettle Brand’s avocado oil chips and Pepperidge Farm’s Milano White Chocolate lineup demonstrate how premiumization and flavor exploration can drive consumer interest. The Milano White Chocolate launch, in particular, has shown that when innovation is well aligned with consumer preferences, it can lift not only the brand but the entire category. In Meals and Beverages, Pacific flavored bone broths and Swanson’s ramen broth address growing interest in health, protein intake, and at-home cooking, creating new usage occasions rather than simply shifting demand within existing products. Campbell’s innovation strategy also reflects changing consumer expectations around ingredients and transparency. The decision to eliminate FD&C colors across the portfolio by the second half of fiscal 2026 aligns the company more closely with consumer preferences and helps protect brand trust over time. This consumer-led approach reduces reputational risk while keeping the brands relevant to modern buying habits. Beyond driving initial sales, innovation supports higher buy rates by expanding choice and variety within familiar brands. Consumers are increasingly seeking flavor-forward offerings, premium experiences, and functional benefits, and Campbell’s portfolio is well positioned to meet those demands without straying from its core identity.

Unlock Exclusive Seeking Alpha Discounts – Level Up Your Investing With Zero Risk

If you’ve been thinking about improving your investing process, this is the easiest way to start. These offers are only available through my links, and the Premium plan even comes with a 100% risk-free 7-day trial. Try everything for a week, and if it’s not for you, just cancel. You lose nothing.

1) Seeking Alpha Premium — Try It Free for 7 Days

Access the tools I personally use every day:

• Earnings transcripts

• Stock screeners

• Deep-dive analysis

• Portfolio tracking

• Market news with context that actually matters

Special Price: $269/year (normally $299) + 7-day free trial (for new users only)

Try Premium Free for 7 Days → HERE

(Explore everything — cancel anytime during the trial and pay $0.)

2) Alpha Picks — Proven Stock Ideas

This stock-picking service has delivered +287% returns vs. the S&P 500’s +77% (July 2022–Nov 2025).Great for investors who want curated, long-term picks backed by data.

Special Price: $449/year (normally $499)

Get Alpha Picks → HERE

(Although Alpha Picks doesn’t offer a free trial, its historical outperformance means the subscription can often pay for itself quickly if results persist. For many investors, the potential return far outweighs the upfront cost).

3) Premium + Alpha Picks Bundle — Best Value

Get both services together and save $159.Perfect if you want both broad tools and high-conviction stock ideas.

Special Price: $639/year (normally $798)

Get the Bundle → HERE

(This bundle doesn’t include a free trial, but it gives you both services at a $159 discount. You get Premium’s in-depth research plus Alpha Picks’ high-performing recommendations, making it the most comprehensive option for serious investors.)

Valuation

Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators for free.

The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 2,01, which is from the fiscal year 2025. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 8%. (managment expects EPS to grow between 7% and 9%) Additionally, I have selected a projected future P/E ratio of 16, which is twice the growth rate. This decision is based on the Campbell’s Company's historically higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Finally, our minimum acceptable rate of return is already established at 15%. After performing the calculations, we determined the sticker price (also known as fair value or intrinsic value) to be $17,16. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy the Campbell’s Company at a price of $8,58 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.

The second calculation is known as the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that a company owner (or stockholder) receives on the purchase price of the company essentially represents its return on investment. The minimum annual return should be at least 10%, which I calculate as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 1.131, and capital expenditures were 426. I attempted to analyze their annual report to calculate the percentage of capital expenditures allocated for maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 298 in our calculations. The tax provision was 194. We have 298,1 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (1.131 – 298 + 194) / 298,1 x 10 = $34,45 in Ten Cap price.

The final calculation is referred to as the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With the Campbell’s Company's free cash flow per share at $2,42 and a growth rate of 8%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is $27,80.

Conclusion

I believe that The Campbell’s Company is a solid business with capable management and a long history of value creation. The company has built a durable moat through brand equity developed over more than 155 years, and few food companies can match the familiarity and trust associated with the Campbell’s name, with its red-and-white soup cans remaining among the most recognizable products in the industry. Campbell has delivered a ROIC above 10% in most years, free cash flow has been steady, and both ROIC and free cash flow are expected to improve over time. At the same time, risks remain. Competition is intense across all of Campbell’s categories, with large global peers and private-label brands competing aggressively on price, marketing, and shelf space, particularly in snacks where loyalty is weaker and consumer preferences change quickly. Tariffs are another risk, as they raise costs in areas where Campbell has limited sourcing flexibility, especially for soup cans and imported products like Rao’s sauces, making it difficult to fully offset these pressures through pricing in a competitive environment, particularly in fiscal year 2026. Brand perception is also critical, as the company’s value depends heavily on trust built over decades, and any damage from quality issues, negative publicity, or misaligned marketing could quickly lead consumers and retailers to shift toward competing or private-label products. On the positive side, home cooking trends support steady demand for Campbell’s Meals and Beverages portfolio, providing resilience during periods of economic uncertainty, while a return to growth in Snacks would meaningfully improve the company’s long-term growth profile. Product innovation further strengthens the case by helping keep brands relevant and supporting incremental growth in otherwise mature categories through new flavors, formats, and health-focused offerings. I can understand why some investors might view Campbell as a sleep-well-at-night holding, particularly if the shares trade below the Payback Time price of $27, but personally I see more attractive opportunities elsewhere and do not plan to invest in Campbell at this time.

My personal goal with investing is financial freedom. It also means that to obtain that, I do different things to build my wealth. If you have some extra hours to spare each month, you can turn a few hours a week into a substantial amount of money in a few years. If you are interested to know how I do it, you can read this post.

I hope you enjoyed my analysis! While I can’t post about every company I analyze, you can stay updated on my trades by following me on Twitter. I share real-time updates whenever I buy or sell, so if you’re making your own investment decisions, be sure to follow along!

Some of the greatest investors in the world believe in karma, and to receive, you will have to give (Warren Buffett and Mohnish Pabrai are great examples). If you appreciated my analysis and want to get some good karma, I would kindly ask you to donate a bit to Soi Dog. They rescue street dogs in Thailand by giving them food, medicine and vet care. If you have a little to spare, please donate here. Even a little will make a huge difference to save these wonderful animals. Thank you.