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Apple: Innovation Driving Long-Term Growth

  • Glenn
  • Dec 14, 2020
  • 20 min read

Updated: Nov 12


Apple is the world’s leading technology company, known for its premium devices, integrated software, and expanding ecosystem of digital services. From the iPhone and Mac to the Apple Watch, AirPods, and a growing suite of services such as iCloud and Apple Music, the company combines design excellence with a powerful recurring revenue model. Its ability to innovate, maintain customer loyalty, and generate exceptional returns has made it one of the most profitable businesses in history. As Apple continues to expand into new markets, develop advanced technologies, and strengthen its ecosystem, the question remains: Does this global tech giant still offer compelling long-term value for investors?


This is not a financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and I only do these post in order to do my own analysis and elaborate about my decisions, especially for my copiers and followers. If you consider investing in any of the ideas I present, you should do your own research or contact a professional financial advisor, as all investing comes with a risk of losing money. You are also more than welcome to copy me. 


For full disclosure, I should mention that I do not own any shares in Apple at the time of writing this analysis. If you would like to copy or view my portfolio, you can find instructions on how to do so here. If you want to purchase shares or fractional shares of Apple, you can do so through eToro. eToro is a highly user-friendly platform that allows you to get started on investing with as little as $50.



The Business


Apple Inc. is a global technology leader that designs, manufactures, and markets a portfolio of premium consumer electronics, software, and services. Its core hardware products, iPhone, Mac, iPad, and wearables, serve as entry points into a tightly integrated ecosystem that connects users across multiple devices and digital services. The iPhone remains at the center of Apple’s success, both as its largest revenue source and as the primary gateway into the broader ecosystem. Once users adopt an iPhone, they often expand into other categories such as the Apple Watch, MacBook, or iPad, creating a network of interconnected devices that reinforce one another. Services have become Apple’s most dynamic growth engine and an increasingly important driver of profitability. This segment now contributes roughly a quarter of total revenue and includes the App Store, iCloud, AppleCare, advertising, Apple Pay, and subscription offerings like Apple Music and Apple TV+. The appeal of Apple’s hardware, combined with the convenience of its digital services, has created a powerful cycle of engagement and monetization that turns each hardware sale into a long-term relationship rather than a one-time transaction. Wearables, home, and accessories have further expanded Apple’s presence in consumers’ daily lives through products like the Apple Watch, AirPods, and HomePod. These devices not only diversify revenue but also deepen the user’s connection to the ecosystem, blurring the line between technology and lifestyle. Meanwhile, the Mac and iPad remain essential components of the product family, strengthened by the company’s transition to its in-house Apple Silicon chips, which deliver industry-leading performance and efficiency while reducing dependence on external suppliers. Apple’s competitive moat stems from the seamless integration of its hardware, software, and services. This unified approach delivers a consistent and intuitive experience across all devices, which competitors have struggled to replicate. Its installed base has now surpassed 2.35 billion active devices, each serving as a potential source of recurring service income. More than 80% of Apple customers own multiple products, and over 30% own four or more, underscoring the depth of engagement within its ecosystem. Every new product enhances the overall experience, encouraging customers to remain within the Apple environment and upgrade rather than switch. This results in high switching costs, strong pricing power, and predictable recurring revenue. Apple has turned customer loyalty into a durable competitive advantage, converting satisfaction and trust into long-term economic value. Few companies have demonstrated such a consistent ability to translate design excellence, brand strength, and user loyalty into financial performance over multiple decades.

Management


Timothy Donald Cook serves as the CEO of Apple, a position he has held since August 2011. He joined Apple in 1998 at the invitation of Steve Jobs, initially serving as Senior Vice President for Worldwide Operations. Before becoming CEO, Tim Cook was Apple’s COO, where he oversaw the company’s global supply chain, sales, and service operations. Under his leadership, Apple built one of the most efficient and flexible supply chains in the world, enabling the company to scale production rapidly while maintaining exceptional product quality and reliability. Prior to joining Apple, Tim Cook spent 12 years at IBM, where he held leadership positions in manufacturing and distribution, and later served as Vice President of Corporate Materials at Compaq Computer Corporation. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Industrial Engineering from Auburn University and an MBA from Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business. Since becoming CEO in 2011, Tim Cook has overseen a transformation at Apple in which revenue rose from approximately $108 billion to nearly $400 billion, net profit rose from about $26 billion to over $90 billion, and market capitalization climbed from roughly $350 billion to more than $3 trillion, establishing Apple as one of the most valuable and profitable companies in the world. He has successfully diversified Apple’s business beyond hardware, accelerating the expansion of high-margin services such as the App Store, Apple Pay, iCloud, and subscription-based platforms including Apple Music and Apple TV+. This strategic evolution has strengthened Apple’s recurring revenue base and reduced its dependence on any single product category. Tim Cook is often recognized for his calm, methodical, and values-driven leadership style. He is known for his ability to manage complexity, foster operational excellence, and sustain innovation within one of the world’s largest organizations. His leadership has also earned widespread respect from investors and employees alike. Warren Buffett has described Tim Cook as a “fantastic manager,” and employee surveys consistently rank him among the most admired CEOs in the technology sector. While comparisons to Steve Jobs are inevitable, Tim Cook has established his own distinct legacy, one defined by operational mastery, strategic clarity, and consistent execution. I believe Tim Cook stands among the most capable and effective CEOs in the world today, and his steady, long-term approach continues to guide Apple’s success and resilience in an ever-changing global market.


The Numbers


The first number we will look into is the return on invested capital, also known as ROIC. We want to see a 10-year history, with all numbers exceeding 10% in each year. Apple consistently achieves an exceptionally high ROIC because it makes large profits without needing to invest heavily to keep the business running. Its products sell at premium prices thanks to strong brand loyalty, and its expanding services business provides steady, high-margin income that doesn’t require much additional spending. The company also operates one of the most efficient supply chains in the world, allowing it to produce and sell at massive scale without tying up much money in inventory or physical assets. From 2021 onwards, Apple’s ROIC rose to a new level mainly because of changes in its business mix. Services began contributing a much larger share of profit, and the shift to Apple Silicon made Macs and iPads more profitable. At the same time, Apple kept buying back shares, which reduced the amount of money tied up in the business. In simple terms, profits kept growing while the resources needed to generate them stayed almost the same, which naturally lifted the company’s returns. In fiscal year 2025, Apple reached its highest ROIC ever as the benefits of its stronger business mix and years of share buybacks came together. Profit margins from services hit record levels, hardware operations became more efficient than ever, and the company kept returning most of its surplus cash to shareholders instead of spending it on new investments. This trend is unlikely to keep accelerating, but Apple’s high ROIC is sustainable. The business has matured, meaning future increases will be harder to achieve, yet its combination of scale, brand strength, and recurring revenue gives it a durable ability to earn returns well above its cost of capital for many years to come.


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The next numbers are the book value + dividend. In my old format this was known as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used to use in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it moving forward. As you are used to see the numbers in percentage, I have decided to share both the numbers and the percentage growth year over year. To put it simply, equity is the part of the company that belongs to its shareholders – like the portion of a house you truly own after paying off part of the mortgage. Growing equity over time means the company is becoming more valuable for its owners. So, when we track book value plus dividends, we’re essentially looking at how much value is being built for shareholders year after year. Apple’s equity declined steadily from fiscal year 2016 through 2022 primarily because of its massive share repurchase program. The company returned hundreds of billions of dollars to shareholders through buybacks, which reduced equity on the balance sheet even though the business remained highly profitable. This decline was not a sign of financial weakness but a reflection of Apple’s decision to return excess cash rather than accumulate it. During much of that time, Apple used low-cost debt to fund its share buybacks instead of bringing home its large pile of overseas cash, which would have led to a big tax bill. Taking advantage of very low interest rates, Apple was able to issue debt at minimal cost and use the proceeds to repurchase shares. This reduced the amount of equity on its balance sheet but made financial sense because it boosted earnings per share and delivered better returns for shareholders. In fiscal year 2025, equity rose sharply to its highest level since 2019. This increase came from a combination of record earnings, slower debt issuance, and a slightly reduced pace of share repurchases, which allowed retained earnings to grow faster than equity was being reduced. Looking ahead, this higher level of equity is not necessarily the start of a permanent upward trend. If Apple continues to prioritize buybacks, equity may decline again, but that would not be cause for concern. Changes in equity mainly reflect how Apple manages its capital structure, not the strength of its underlying business. The company’s balance sheet remains exceptionally strong, with robust cash generation and high returns on capital providing continued flexibility in how it allocates resources.


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Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins provide a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. Apple consistently generates enormous free cash flow because of its strong profitability, efficient operations, and relatively modest investment needs. The company converts a very high share of its earnings into cash, resulting in high free cash flow margins. This reflects the strength of its business model: premium pricing, recurring service revenue, and a supply chain that doesn’t require large ongoing capital spending. In fiscal year 2025, free cash flow declined to its lowest level since 2021. This was mainly due to higher capital expenditures, as Apple continued investing in data centers, manufacturing equipment, and new product initiatives such as Vision Pro and next-generation silicon development. Operating cash flow remained strong, but these increased investments temporarily reduced the amount of free cash flow available after capex. Despite this dip, Apple’s ability to generate cash remains exceptional. The company consistently uses its free cash flow for share repurchases and dividends, which together account for the vast majority of its capital allocation. It also invests selectively in new technologies, supply chain capacity, and sustainability initiatives, while keeping a significant cash reserve for flexibility. The decline in free cash flow in 2025 reflects timing and investment choices rather than any weakness in Apple’s core business. The company’s free cash flow generation remains far above that of most peers, and its disciplined use of that cash continues to enhance long-term shareholder value. The free cash flow yield is at its lowest level in a decade, indicating that the shares are currently trading at a premium valuation. We will return to valuation later in the analysis.


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Debt


Another important aspect to consider is the level of debt. It is essential to assess whether a company’s debt is manageable and could be repaid within three years, which can be estimated by dividing total long-term debt by annual earnings. Based on this measure, Apple has a debt-to-earnings ratio of only 0,7 years, well below the three-year threshold, indicating that its debt position is highly manageable. In fact, Apple’s ratio has remained under two years for the past two decades, suggesting that debt has never posed a real risk to the company’s financial health and is unlikely to become a concern in the future.


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Risks


Macroeconomic factors are a risk for Apple because its performance is closely tied to global economic conditions and consumer spending. As a seller of premium-priced products, Apple depends on strong consumer confidence and discretionary income. When the global economy slows, or when inflation and interest rates rise, consumers tend to postpone upgrades or choose cheaper alternatives, which can reduce demand for iPhones, Macs, and other hardware. Since hardware sales drive the growth of Apple’s active device base, a slowdown in product demand can also dampen the expansion of its high-margin Services segment over time. Apple’s risk exposure is amplified by the global nature of its business. A majority of the company’s revenue comes from outside the United States, and its supply chain spans numerous countries, including China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam. This global reach makes Apple vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations, trade tensions, and tariffs. The new tariffs introduced in 2025 on imports to and from several major markets have increased uncertainty and could raise production costs or force supply chain adjustments. If geopolitical tensions or trade restrictions escalate, Apple may need to shift production or change suppliers, which would be costly and disruptive. Adverse macroeconomic conditions can also affect Apple indirectly through its partners and suppliers. Weaker financial health among contract manufacturers, logistics providers, and distributors can cause production delays, component shortages, or higher costs. Beyond economic and trade issues, Apple is also exposed to broader global disruptions such as geopolitical conflicts, natural disasters, and public health crises. Events like these can disrupt manufacturing, delay product launches, or lower consumer spending in key markets.


Competition is a significant risk for Apple because it operates in fast-moving markets where innovation cycles are short, consumer preferences change quickly, and rivals are aggressive on both technology and price. The company competes globally across multiple categories, smartphones, computers, tablets, wearables, and digital services, each with strong incumbents and new entrants constantly challenging its position. Apple’s markets are defined by rapid technological change and intense price competition. Consumers are highly price-sensitive, and many competitors, particularly in Asia, are willing to operate at much lower margins or even at a loss to gain market share. This dynamic creates persistent downward pressure on Apple’s hardware margins. In smartphones, Samsung continues to lead in global unit volume, while brands like Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo offer lower-priced alternatives that appeal to value-conscious consumers. In China, one of Apple’s most important markets, Huawei has re-emerged as a powerful competitor, regaining share in premium devices and overtaking Apple as the top-selling smartwatch brand in 2025. The company also faces growing competitive pressure in artificial intelligence. While Apple has integrated AI features quietly within its devices, companies such as Google and Microsoft have moved more aggressively in deploying generative AI tools and ecosystems. As AI becomes a defining factor in user experience and productivity, Apple risks being perceived as a follower rather than a leader if it cannot close that gap quickly. Moreover, competitors increasingly imitate Apple’s ecosystem strategy, integrating hardware, software, and services into seamless offerings. Rivals such as Samsung and Google now offer device and service bundles that replicate aspects of Apple’s approach, reducing differentiation. Some competitors benefit from larger installed bases or lower production costs, which allow them to undercut Apple’s pricing while still providing competitive functionality.


Antitrust represents a significant risk for Apple because the company operates in markets where its size, market influence, and business practices attract close scrutiny from regulators around the world. Apple’s dominance in areas such as smartphones, app distribution, and digital payments has led authorities in the United States, the European Union, and other jurisdictions to question whether its control over the ecosystem gives it an unfair competitive advantage. The greatest area of concern is the App Store, which sits at the center of Apple’s high-margin Services business. Regulators, particularly in the European Union, are challenging Apple’s long-standing approach that requires developers to distribute apps and process payments exclusively through its platform. Under the EU’s Digital Markets Act, Apple must now allow alternative app stores, external payment systems, and new methods of app distribution. These changes directly threaten the 15 to 30 percent commission Apple earns on digital sales, which has been a key driver of its Services profitability. If similar rules are adopted more broadly, Apple’s margins could face meaningful pressure, undermining one of the company’s strongest sources of growth and valuation support. In the United States, the Department of Justice has filed an antitrust lawsuit alleging that Apple leverages its control over the iPhone ecosystem to suppress competition. The company’s agreements with Google, which make Google Search the default engine on Apple devices, are also under investigation. Regulators argue that such deals may limit consumer choice and reinforce the dominance of both companies in digital markets. If Apple is found to have violated competition laws, it could face substantial fines, be forced to alter key business practices, or lose lucrative revenue streams such as its search distribution agreement with Google. Beyond the immediate financial impact, such changes could weaken Apple’s ecosystem advantage by reducing user lock-in, increasing competition, and lowering profitability in its Services segment.


Reasons to invest


Innovation and product development is a reason to invest in Apple because it remains the foundation of the company’s long-term success and one of its strongest competitive advantages. While critics often describe Apple’s annual hardware updates as incremental, this deliberate approach is a core part of its ecosystem strategy. By introducing improvements gradually rather than dramatically changing each generation, Apple extends the lifespan of its ecosystem and keeps customers engaged across devices and services. This steady pace of refinement also ensures that new products are reliable, seamlessly integrated, and deliver consistent value, reinforcing brand loyalty and driving repeat purchases. Apple’s commitment to innovation goes far beyond the iPhone. The company continues to set industry standards through its ability to blend cutting-edge technology, design, and user experience. The recent introduction of the A19 Pro and M5 chips exemplifies Apple’s leadership in custom silicon, delivering exceptional performance and power efficiency that competitors struggle to match. The latest product cycle showcases this innovation in action. The iPhone 17 lineup offers major performance and camera upgrades, while the new iPhone Air introduces a lighter and more elegant design. The Apple Watch Ultra 3 and Series 11 expand health monitoring features with tools such as hypertension notifications and emergency SOS via satellite, pushing the boundaries of wearable technology. AirPods Pro 3 deliver industry-leading noise cancellation and introduce real-time translation powered by Apple Intelligence, demonstrating how Apple continues to turn hardware into a platform for new experiences. Updates to iOS, iPadOS, and macOS have strengthened the continuity between devices, allowing users to move effortlessly within the ecosystem. This integration not only enhances user satisfaction but also deepens Apple’s ecosystem advantage by making each product more valuable when used together. Apple’s ability to innovate consistently, both through new product categories like Vision Pro and through continuous improvement of its core lineup, underscores why the company remains a compelling long-term investment. Its innovation is methodical, user-focused, and deeply tied to the ecosystem that keeps customers loyal and recurring revenue growing.


Services is a reason to invest in Apple because it has become the company’s most powerful growth engine and is reshaping its financial profile. The segment, which includes the App Store, advertising, AppleCare, iCloud, Apple Music, Apple TV+, Apple Pay, and other subscription services, has evolved into a key driver of both revenue and profitability. It complements Apple’s hardware business by turning one-time device sales into long-term customer relationships and recurring income. In the most recent fiscal year, Services revenue surpassed 100 billion dollars, growing 14% year over year, its best result ever. This performance was entirely organic, driven by higher engagement across Apple’s enormous installed base, now exceeding two billion active devices. Both the number of transacting and paid accounts reached new all-time highs, showing that users are increasingly willing to pay for Apple’s digital services. The profitability of this segment is particularly impressive. Services delivered a gross margin of over 75%, far higher than Apple’s hardware business, making it a key contributor to the company’s overall margin expansion in recent years. The broad mix of offerings, ranging from cloud storage and streaming to payment services and warranty plans, provides stability and diversification. Advertising, Apple Pay, and the App Store continue to post record revenue, while Apple TV+ strengthens the brand through award-winning original content. Apple’s strategy with Services is built around the power of its ecosystem. Every iPhone, Mac, and Watch sold becomes a gateway to ongoing digital engagement, from subscriptions to cloud storage and app purchases. This creates a self-reinforcing loop: more devices lead to more service users, and more services make devices more valuable, increasing customer loyalty and lifetime value. As Apple continues to launch new products, expand Apple Pay to additional markets, and add new features like AppleCare One and AI-powered experiences, its recurring revenue base will only grow stronger.


Emerging markets are a reason to invest in Apple because they represent one of the company’s most important long-term growth opportunities. As smartphone penetration matures in developed economies, future expansion will increasingly depend on demand from fast-growing regions such as India, China, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. These markets are characterized by rapidly rising middle-class populations, increasing disposable income, and a growing appetite for premium technology products, all of which align perfectly with Apple’s brand positioning. India stands out as Apple’s most promising growth market. Although its current market share remains modest, Apple’s progress in the country has accelerated thanks to expanding retail operations, stronger local manufacturing, and an improving distribution network. The company recently opened flagship stores in Mumbai and Delhi, reflecting its long-term commitment to the market. Rising consumer purchasing power and a young, tech-savvy population are fueling record demand for iPhones, Macs, and wearables, with India achieving an all-time revenue record in the latest fiscal year. Tim Cook has repeatedly emphasized India’s strategic importance, viewing it as a key driver of growth for the next decade. Beyond India, Apple is seeing strong momentum across a range of emerging markets. The company recently achieved record performance in Latin America, South Asia, the Middle East, and Turkey. Countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are increasingly adopting Apple’s products as their economies diversify and consumer spending grows. In these regions, Apple’s ecosystem strategy, where each device connects seamlessly to services like iCloud, Apple Music, and Apple Pay, creates powerful customer loyalty even among first-time buyers. China remains a crucial part of Apple’s global story. Despite occasional volatility due to economic slowdowns or supply constraints, China continues to offer substantial long-term potential. The company is benefiting from government subsidies that encourage consumer spending on technology products and from strong demand for the iPhone 17 lineup, which has seen increased store traffic and positive reception. As emerging economies continue to expand and more consumers move into the middle class, Apple’s mix of premium hardware, integrated services, and strong brand appeal positions it to capture a growing share of global technology spending.


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Valuation


Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators for free.


The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 7,46, which is from the fiscal year 2025. I have chosen a projected future EPS growth rate of 12% (Finbox expects EPS to grow by 11,8%). Additionally, I have selected a projected future price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24, which is twice the growth rate. This decision is based on Apple's historically higher P/E ratio. Lastly, our minimum acceptable rate of return is already set at 15%. After performing the calculations, we determined the sticker price (also known as fair value or intrinsic value) to be $137,45. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy Apple at a price of $68,73 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.


The second calculation is known as the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that a company owner (or stockholder) receives on the purchase price of the company essentially represents its return on investment. The minimum annual return should be at least 10%, which I calculate as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 111.500, and capital expenditures were 12.715. I attempted to analyze their annual report to calculate the proportion of capital expenditures designated for maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 8.901 in our calculations. The tax provision was 20.719. We have 14.840 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (111.500 – 8.901 + 20.719) / 14.840 x 10 = $83.10 in Ten Cap price.


The final calculation is referred to as the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With Apple's free cash flow per share at $6,66 and a growth rate of 12%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is $91,75.


Conclusion


Apple is a great company with excellent management. It has built a powerful moat through the seamless integration of its hardware, software, and services. The company consistently achieves a high ROIC, reaching its highest level ever in fiscal year 2025. Free cash flow declined slightly that year, mainly due to higher capital expenditures, but Apple is expected to continue generating strong returns and cash flow in the future. Macroeconomic factors are a risk because Apple’s sales depend heavily on consumer spending and confidence, which weaken during periods of inflation, high interest rates, or slower economic growth. Its global supply chain and international exposure also make it vulnerable to currency fluctuations, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions that can raise costs or disrupt production. Competition is another risk, as Apple operates in fast-changing markets where rivals like Samsung, Huawei, and Google innovate quickly on both technology and price. Lower-cost brands and advances in artificial intelligence challenge Apple’s pricing power and its reputation as a technology leader. Antitrust scrutiny is also a concern, with regulators in the United States, the European Union, and elsewhere questioning Apple’s control over its ecosystem, particularly the App Store. New regulations like the EU’s Digital Markets Act and ongoing U.S. lawsuits could reduce App Store commissions and pressure the profitability of its Services segment. On the positive side, innovation and product development remain central to Apple’s long-term success. Its steady refinement of products, leadership in custom silicon, and expansion into new areas like spatial computing strengthen customer loyalty, recurring revenue, and its position in premium technology. The Services segment has become the company’s most powerful growth driver, turning device ownership into recurring, high-margin income through offerings such as the App Store, Apple Music, and iCloud. This creates a stable profit stream that reinforces the ecosystem and enhances long-term financial resilience. Emerging markets add another layer of opportunity, as rising incomes and expanding middle classes in regions like India, China, and the Middle East drive demand for premium technology. With growing local production, new retail stores, and strong product adoption, Apple is well-positioned to capture these long-term opportunities. I believe Apple is an excellent company, and buying shares around the intrinsic value of $137, based on the Margin of Safety calculation, would be a great long-term investment.


My personal goal with investing is financial freedom. It also means that to obtain that, I do different things to build my wealth. If you have some extra hours to spare each month, you can turn a few hours a week into a substantial amount of money in a few years. If you are interested to know how I do it, you can read this post.


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