Aena: A High-Flying Investment Opportunity

Aena is the world’s largest airport operator by passenger numbers, managing a vast network of airports across Spain and an expanding footprint in the UK and Brazil. With strong government backing, high barriers to entry, and resilient post-pandemic traffic growth, Aena blends infrastructure stability with upside from commercial and international expansion. From duty-free retail and parking to VIP lounges and real estate, its high-margin non-aeronautical business is an increasingly important growth engine. The question is: Does this infrastructure powerhouse belong in your long-term portfolio?

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For full disclosure, I should mention that I do not own any shares in Aena at the time of writing this analysis. If you would like to copy or view my portfolio, you can find instructions on how to do so here. If you want to purchase shares or fractional shares of Aena, you can do so through eToro. eToro is a highly user-friendly platform that allows you to get started on investing with as little as $50.

The Business

Aena is the world’s largest airport operator, managing 46 airports and 2 heliports across Spain and participating in the operation of 33 additional airports internationally through its subsidiary, Aena Internacional. These include 17 airports in Brazil, 12 in Mexico, 2 in Colombia, 2 in Jamaica, and London-Luton in the United Kingdom. Headquartered in Madrid, Aena is majority-owned by the Spanish government through ENAIRE, which holds a 51% stake, while the remaining shares are publicly traded. The company was originally established in 1991 as a public entity managing both airports and air navigation. In 2014, it was restructured, and the air navigation services were separated into a new entity, ENAIRE, allowing Aena to focus solely on airport operations. Aena’s business is organized into four main segments: aeronautical, commercial, real estate, and international operations. In the aeronautical segment, the company earns revenue from airline-related activities such as landing and takeoff fees, passenger charges, aircraft parking, and security services. The commercial segment includes leasing space within terminals for duty-free stores, restaurants, specialty retail, advertising, and parking services. In the real estate segment, Aena leases office buildings, logistics facilities, hangars, and cargo areas to various airport service providers. Its international segment replicates this integrated model in overseas airports, generating income through similar aeronautical and commercial activities. The company provides comprehensive services to a wide range of customers, including passengers, airlines, cargo operators, and handling agents. It ensures accessible travel for people with reduced mobility and oversees a broad range of ground and airside operations, such as baggage handling, aircraft servicing, catering, cleaning, and other essential support activities. To carry out these operations efficiently, Aena works with a network of external suppliers that provide services and resources like construction, facility maintenance, technical equipment, energy, water, and other operational necessities across the countries where it operates. Aena benefits from a strong competitive moat. In Spain, it holds a near-monopoly on airport operations, a position protected by high regulatory and capital barriers. Government ownership reinforces its strategic importance and makes it highly unlikely that any competitor could replicate its scale or access. The nature of airport infrastructure - costly, complex, and subject to public oversight - deters new entrants. Aena also enjoys economies of scale through its large network and diverse revenue streams, especially from commercial and real estate activities that provide steady income regardless of fluctuations in passenger traffic. Its long-standing operational expertise strengthens its position in international markets, where it enters partnerships or concessions to help manage and improve airport infrastructure. Together, these factors give Aena a wide and durable moat in both domestic and global markets.

Management

Maurici Lucena Betriu serves as the CEO of Aena, a position he has held since 2018. He brings a unique blend of public and private sector experience, underpinned by a strong academic background in economics and finance. He holds a bachelor's degree in Economics and Business Science from Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona, as well as a master’s degree in Economics and Finance from the Banco de España Centre for Monetary and Financial Studies (CEMFI) in Madrid. Prior to joining Aena, Maurici Lucena Betriu held senior leadership roles across a diverse range of institutions. In the public sector, he served as a member of the Parliament of Catalonia and was appointed Chairman of the European Space Agency. In the private sector, he worked at Banco Sabadell, where he served as Director of Equity and Prudential Management and later as Director of Prudential Regulation and Public Policy. He has also contributed to academia as an associate professor in the Economics Department at Carlos III University in Madrid and is the author of a book on industrial policy. Maurici Lucena Betriu assumed leadership of Aena at a pivotal moment and successfully guided the company through the challenges brought by the COVID-19 pandemic. Under his leadership, Aena not only recovered from the collapse in air travel but also exceeded its 2019 performance. His tenure has been marked by operational resilience, a focus on efficiency, and continued international expansion.Known for his analytical mindset and deep understanding of both policy and markets, Maurici Lucena Betriu is considered a steady and forward-thinking leader. His ability to navigate complex regulatory environments while managing a critical part of national infrastructure reinforces his suitability to lead Aena in the years ahead. Given his credentials, public and private sector experience, and proven track record during one of the industry’s most difficult periods, I believe Maurici Lucena Betriu is well-positioned to continue driving Aena’s long-term success.

The Numbers

The first number we will look into is the return on invested capital, also known as ROIC. We want to see a 10-year history, with all numbers exceeding 10% in each year. Historically, Aena's ROIC has been relatively modest, exceeding 10% only three times over the past decade. It even turned negative in 2020 and 2021, primarily due to the sharp decline in air traffic during the pandemic. There are several reasons for the company’s generally low ROIC. Regulated revenue streams are a major factor. A large share of Aena's income comes from regulated fees such as landing, takeoff, and passenger charges, which are set or capped by government authorities. This limits Aena’s flexibility to adjust prices in response to demand or inflation, thereby constraining profitability. Capital-intensive operations also play a role. Running airports requires continuous, large-scale investment in infrastructure such as terminals, runways, and security systems. These projects are extremely expensive and take years to generate returns. Because the assets depreciate slowly over time and because the upfront costs are so high, this naturally depresses ROIC. Government ownership and strategic priorities further influence capital allocation. With the Spanish government owning 51% of the company, Aena may be called upon to support broader national objectives, such as maintaining service to less profitable regional airports. These obligations can result in projects that offer strategic value but limited financial return. Despite these structural challenges, ROIC reached its highest level in a decade in 2024. This was driven by a combination of record passenger traffic, improved operating efficiency, careful cost management, and stronger contributions from international operations. A low ROIC by itself is not necessarily a red flag for a company like Aena, given the nature of its business. Airports are long-term infrastructure assets with high barriers to entry and relatively stable demand. What matters more is the direction of returns over time. The sharp increase in ROIC in 2024 shows that Aena can scale its returns when passenger volumes and commercial income rise.

The next numbers are the book value + dividend. In my old format this was known as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used to use in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it moving forward. As you are used to see the numbers in percentage, I have decided to share both the numbers and the percentage growth year over year. To put it simply, equity is the part of the company that belongs to its shareholders – like the portion of a house you truly own after paying off part of the mortgage. Growing equity over time means the company is becoming more valuable for its owners. So, when we track book value plus dividends, we’re essentially looking at how much value is being built for shareholders year after year. Aena has managed to increase its equity every year except for 2021, which was affected by the pandemic. This consistent growth can be attributed to several factors. First, retained earnings have played a central role. Aena has been consistently profitable in most years, allowing it to reinvest part of its earnings back into the business and boost shareholders’ equity. Second, the company has maintained operational efficiency, keeping costs under control while growing revenues. This has helped support steady net income, which in turn lifts equity. Finally, Aena’s long-term investments in infrastructure and international expansion have been strategic and disciplined. These initiatives have contributed to stronger earnings potential over time, further reinforcing the company’s equity base.

Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins offer a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. Aena has delivered positive free cash flow in eight of the past ten years. The only exceptions were 2020 and 2021, when air travel was severely disrupted by the pandemic. Encouragingly, the company reached a new record high in free cash flow in 2024. Outside of the pandemic years, Aena has consistently achieved a high levered free cash flow margin. This is largely due to two key factors. First, high operating leverage: once Aena covers its basic fixed costs - such as maintaining airport facilities, operating infrastructure, and providing security - each additional passenger or flight contributes disproportionately to profit. Since these costs don’t rise much with increased traffic, the business becomes more profitable as volumes grow, particularly in a post-pandemic recovery. Second, recurring, high-margin commercial income: Aena earns significant revenue from non-aeronautical sources like duty-free retail, food and beverage leases, parking, and advertising. These activities require minimal reinvestment and offer high margins, helping to sustain strong free cash flow even when passenger numbers vary. Looking ahead, Aena’s management has announced a major investment cycle beginning in 2027 under the DORA III framework, Spain’s five-year airport regulation plan. After a relatively low level of capital spending in 2024, annual CapEx is expected to rise significantly. These investments aim to expand airport capacity and ensure that infrastructure keeps pace with growing demand - supporting Spain’s position as a global tourism hub. While this higher CapEx may reduce free cash flow in the coming years, it is viewed as a necessary step for long-term growth. As Aena grows its free cash flow, investors can expect rising dividends, supported by the company’s 80% dividend payout policy. Although the current free cash flow yield isn’t as high as in previous years, it remains above 6%, suggesting that the company is trading at an attractive valuation. However, we will revisit valuation later in the analysis.

Debt

Another important aspect to consider is debt. It’s crucial to assess whether a business has a manageable level of debt that can be repaid within three years. To do this, I divide the company’s total long-term debt by its earnings. Based on this calculation, Aena has 3,0 years of earnings in debt. This is slightly higher than I would prefer, but I don’t view it as a major risk - largely because the Spanish government owns 51% of the company. That ownership structure provides a layer of stability and reduces the likelihood of serious financial distress. It’s also worth noting that Aena has made debt reduction a priority, which is encouraging. While debt may increase somewhat in the coming years due to higher capital spending under the DORA III framework, I don’t believe this will become a concern.

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Risks

Macroeconomic conditions is a risk for Aena. The global economic situation remains subject to risks such as persistent inflation, tightening monetary policy, and rising interest rates. These macroeconomic pressures can reduce consumer purchasing power, leading people to cut back on discretionary spending - such as travel. This could directly affect tourist flows to Spain, where 4 out of 5 international tourists arrive by air. A decline in travel would mean fewer flights and fewer passengers, which would negatively impact both Aena's aeronautical revenue (such as landing and passenger fees) and commercial revenue (from retail, food, and parking), all of which are closely tied to passenger volumes. Management has acknowledged that inflation remains “stickier” than expected and could influence passenger behavior in the months ahead. In a high-inflation environment, even minor changes in airfare or overall travel costs can significantly alter demand, particularly among price-sensitive travelers. In addition to the potential impact on demand, Aena is also facing cost-side inflation. The company has seen rising expenses in key operational areas such as airport security, cleaning services, and support for passengers with reduced mobility. These cost increases are largely driven by inflationary pressure passed on by suppliers, and management does not expect them to ease in the near term. Staff costs have also risen, mainly due to salary increases linked to existing labor agreements. While the increase was modest- around 2,5% - it reflects broader wage pressure that could persist if inflation remains elevated or new agreements are negotiated. In short, macroeconomic risks affect Aena on both sides of the equation: by potentially weakening passenger demand and by raising operational costs. While the company is currently performing well, persistent inflation and subdued consumer sentiment could create headwinds for profitability and cash flow going forward.

Laws and regulations is a risk for Aena. Aena operates in a highly regulated industry, where national and EU-level laws govern nearly every aspect of airport operations - from safety standards and labor rules to environmental compliance and passenger rights. This regulatory environment creates ongoing obligations and costs for the company, and any changes in the law can significantly impact operations, staffing, and profitability. One emerging regulatory risk comes from environmental policy. In Spain, some political parties have proposed limiting short-haul domestic flights that have train alternatives under 2,5 hours, in an effort to reduce carbon emissions. If this policy were to be implemented, it could reduce passenger volumes on domestic routes - especially those connecting major cities like Madrid, Valencia, and Barcelona - which in turn would hurt Aena’s aeronautical and commercial revenues. Since the majority of Aena’s revenue is generated within its Spanish airport network, this type of regulation poses a meaningful threat. Another example is the Spanish government’s plan to progressively reduce the standard workweek from 40 hours to a lower threshold without reducing wages. If enacted, this could raise labor costs for Aena by requiring either more staff or higher overtime payments to maintain operational efficiency, especially in a labor-intensive business like airport management. In addition, Aena must continually adapt to evolving rules on ESG (environmental, social, and governance) compliance. This includes stricter emissions targets, sustainability reporting standards, and expectations around diversity, equity, and corporate governance. While ESG policies may bring long-term benefits, they can also lead to short-term operational and financial burdens There is also the risk of legal uncertainty. Regulations can be complex and subject to differing interpretations, especially across the various jurisdictions in which Aena operates. Adapting to new rules - whether related to environmental impact, labor law, or aviation safety - can require significant internal resources and may lead to compliance costs or operational disruptions.

Competition and concentration is a risk for Aena. Aena’s business is exposed to both concentration risk and emerging forms of competition. A large portion of its revenue is concentrated in just two major airports - Madrid-Barajas and Barcelona-El Prat - which rank among the top 10 busiest airports in Europe. While these hubs are valuable assets, their importance also makes Aena vulnerable to shifts in traffic patterns, infrastructure disruptions, or changes in airline strategy. A slowdown in either of these airports could have an outsized impact on the company’s overall financial performance. On the competition front, Aena’s greatest challenge doesn’t come from other airport operators, but from alternative modes of transport. High-speed rail, particularly in Spain, is already a strong competitor on short domestic routes. As sustainability becomes a greater priority and governments look to reduce carbon emissions, more travelers - especially business passengers - may choose trains over short-haul flights. This shift could reduce air traffic on key domestic routes and put downward pressure on both passenger and flight volumes. Looking further ahead, new technologies like electric air taxis and urban mobility services could emerge as competitors for short-distance travel. These aircraft would take off and land vertically from purpose-built platforms known as vertiports, potentially located in or near urban areas. While these services are still in development, they represent a long-term threat to traditional airport operators if they gain regulatory approval and widespread adoption. These new forms of mobility could divert a portion of short-haul or regional traffic away from Aena’s airports. In summary, Aena’s reliance on a few airports and airline partners increases its exposure to specific operational and strategic risks. At the same time, the rise of alternative and potentially greener transport options - ranging from high-speed rail to future air mobility solutions - poses a competitive threat that could gradually reshape the travel landscape in ways that impact passenger numbers, route choices, and revenue potential.

Reasons to invest

Increasing passenger traffic is a reason to invest in Aena. Aena’s consistent and record-breaking growth in passenger traffic is one of the strongest indicators of its long-term investment appeal. In 2024, Aena handled nearly 370 million passengers across its global network - an 8,5% year-over-year increase and the second consecutive year of all-time high traffic. In Spain alone, passenger volumes rose by 9,2% to nearly 310 million, with the company surpassing the symbolic milestone of averaging over 1 million passengers per day - a level it had not expected to reach until 2027. This robust growth shows that demand for air travel in Spain is not only resilient but accelerating faster than anticipated. Importantly, the recovery and expansion have not come at the expense of service quality, with Aena emphasizing that strong passenger growth has remained compatible with high operational standards. Looking ahead, Aena projects passenger traffic to grow by another 3,4% in 2025, reaching approximately 320 million passengers in Spain alone. This sustained growth supports recurring revenue streams across both aeronautical and commercial segments. A closer look at the breakdown of traffic reveals another encouraging trend: international travel is driving most of the growth. In 2024, international traffic grew by 11,2% - more than twice the pace of domestic traffic, which rose 5,4%. International passengers now account for over two-thirds of total traffic, with European routes dominating but long-haul connections to Latin America, North America, Africa, and Asia growing strongly. Notably, traffic to Asia doubled, albeit from a small base, showing early signs of expansion into less-penetrated markets. This surge in traffic is especially important for Aena because both aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenues scale with passenger volume. More passengers mean more flights (generating landing and passenger fees), and more commercial activity in terminals - from duty-free spending to food, retail, and parking. Since many of these commercial streams are high-margin and require relatively little reinvestment, the growth in passenger traffic directly enhances profitability and cash generation.

Aena’s commercial business is a reason to invest. Aena’s commercial segment is not just a supplement to its core airport operations—it is a major driver of growth, margin expansion, and cash flow. In 2024, Aena generated more than €1,7 billion in commercial revenue, a 14,7% increase from 2023, significantly outpacing passenger traffic growth. This reflects not only higher passenger volumes but also an increase in spending per passenger, particularly across high-margin areas such as duty-free, specialty retail, food and beverage, and VIP services. One of the key strengths of Aena’s commercial model is its ability to grow independently of traffic volume. For example, tenant sales rose 11% in 2024 - again, well above traffic growth - with duty-free sales growing 15,2%, specialty shops 11,9%, and food and beverage 11%. These trends show that Aena is monetizing its passenger base more effectively, capturing more value per traveler. Another standout feature is the revenue structure based on Minimum Annual Guarantees (MAGs), which provide a predictable and growing stream of income. In 2024, Aena signed new contracts for specialty shops and food and beverage that are expected to increase MAGs by 45% and 55%, respectively, in 2025. This means that even if passenger traffic were to flatten, the company would still see substantial revenue growth from newly negotiated fixed rents. Beyond traditional retail, other commercial lines are thriving. VIP services revenue grew over 30% in 2024, with VIP lounge revenue up 28%, supported by a rise in customer volumes and higher average prices. Car rental revenue grew 12,5% and car park income increased 13,3%, both driven by new contracts, better pricing strategies, and operational optimizations like better use of parking capacity. Aena is also showing strong momentum through its forward-looking approach. It launched 71 new tenders for specialty shops and 37 for food and beverage in 2024, and expects further increases in fixed and guaranteed revenue in 2025. The company is also upgrading commercial offerings across several airports to enhance the passenger experience and improve monetization. The consistent growth of Aena’s commercial business, often outperforming passenger growth, makes it a key pillar of the company’s investment case. It offers higher margins, less sensitivity to cyclical fluctuations, and growing fixed-income streams.

International growth is a reason to invest in Aena. While Aena is best known for operating Spain’s extensive airport network, its growing international presence is becoming an increasingly important part of the investment story. The company has expanded its footprint in key global markets, including the United Kingdom and Brazil, where it now operates multiple airports that are contributing meaningfully to traffic growth, revenue, and profitability. In 2024, Aena’s international assets saw solid passenger growth - often outpacing the Spanish network’s already impressive numbers. London Luton Airport, where Aena holds a 51% stake, handled 16,7 million passengers, a 3,3% increase from 2023, reaching 93% of pre-pandemic traffic. Even more significantly, Luton achieved record-high revenue and EBITDA, with strong margins - demonstrating that Aena’s expertise translates well outside its home market. In Brazil, Aena has made substantial progress. ANB (Aena Brasil) managed nearly 16 million passengers across its existing network and closed the year with a total of 59 million passengers, growing 8,3% year-over-year. The company also successfully began operating the Eleven Airports Block, known as BOAB, which added another layer of growth with a 4,1% increase in traffic. At Congonhas Airport - one of the busiest domestic airports in Brazil and part of the new concession - Aena has already begun implementing upgrades to infrastructure and passenger services ahead of a major CapEx plan due by 2028. These international operations are still a smaller part of Aena’s overall portfolio but are growing quickly and offer valuable geographic diversification. They provide exposure to economies with different growth cycles than Europe, allow Aena to leverage its operational expertise in new markets, and contribute additional revenue and EBITDA that help reduce reliance on the Spanish network alone. Looking ahead, management believes that traffic growth at these international assets could even outpace Spain’s in 2025. The ongoing recovery in global air travel, combined with operational improvements and commercial initiatives across these airports, sets the stage for continued growth.

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Valuation

Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculator for free.

The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 1,29, which is from 2024. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 10%. Finbox expects EPS to grow by 10% in the next five years. Additionally, I have selected a projected future P/E ratio of 20, which is twice the growth rate. This decision is based on Aena's historically higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Finally, our minimum acceptable rate of return has already been established at 15%. After performing the calculations, we determined the sticker price (also known as fair value or intrinsic value) to be €16,53. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy Aena at a price of €8,26 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.

The second calculation is known as the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that a company owner (or stockholder) receives on the purchase price of the company essentially represents its return on investment. The minimum annual return should be at least 10%, which I calculate as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 2.747, and capital expenditures were 738. I attempted to analyze their annual report to calculate the percentage of capital expenditures allocated to maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 517 in our calculations. The tax provision was 584. We have 1.500 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (2.747 – 517 + 584) / 1.500 x 10 = €18,76 in Ten Cap price.

The final calculation is called the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With Aena's Free Cash Flow Per Share at €1,34 and a growth rate of 10%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is €16,86.

Conclusion

I believe that Aena is an intriguing company with strong management. The company has built a moat through high regulatory and capital barriers, while government ownership further protects it from competition. Although Aena has historically delivered a low return on invested capital (ROIC), this is largely due to the capital-intensive nature of the airport business. It is encouraging that ROIC reached its highest level ever in 2024. Aena also delivered record-high free cash flow in 2024 and has consistently maintained a high levered free cash flow margin. Macroeconomic conditions are a risk for Aena because persistent inflation, higher interest rates, and reduced consumer spending could weaken travel demand - particularly to Spain, where most tourists arrive by air - impacting both passenger-related and commercial revenue. At the same time, inflation is driving up operating costs for services like security, cleaning, and staffing, putting additional pressure on profitability. Laws and regulations are a risk for Aena because the company operates in a heavily regulated industry. Changes in environmental, labor, or ESG policies - such as restrictions on short-haul flights or reduced working hours - could increase costs or reduce passenger volumes. Adapting to evolving rules across multiple jurisdictions also creates uncertainty and may lead to operational or compliance challenges. Competition and concentration are also risks. A large share of Aena’s revenue comes from just two airports - Madrid and Barcelona - making the company vulnerable to operational disruptions or strategic shifts. Meanwhile, high-speed rail and emerging technologies like air taxis could gradually reduce demand for short-haul flights, affecting passenger volumes and revenue. On the positive side, increasing passenger traffic is a strong reason to invest. Continued growth in air travel - especially international routes - is driving both flight-related and high-margin commercial revenue. With record-breaking traffic in 2024 and solid forecasts for 2025, Aena is capturing more value per passenger while benefiting from scale and strong cash generation. Aena’s commercial business is another key strength. It consistently delivers high-margin, fast-growing revenue that often outpaces traffic growth. With strong performance across duty-free, food, VIP services, and parking - as well as predictable income from long-term contracts - this segment adds stability and supports profitability. International growth is also an important investment driver. Aena’s expanding footprint in the UK and Brazil is contributing meaningful passenger growth, record-high revenue, and rising profitability. These assets provide geographic diversification, reduce dependence on Spain, and offer long-term upside as global air travel continues to recover and expand. Overall, I believe Aena is a high-quality company. Buying shares at the Ten Cap price of €18,76 could be a solid long-term investment, particularly for dividend-focused investors.

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