Aena: A High-Flying Investment Opportunity

Aena is the world’s largest airport operator, managing Spain’s extensive airport network that serves as the primary gateway to one of the most visited countries in the world. From major hubs like Madrid-Barajas and Barcelona-El Prat to a wide range of regional and tourist-focused airports, the company combines essential infrastructure with growing high-margin commercial activities such as retail, parking, and real estate. With rising passenger traffic, expanding international operations, and a strong position within Spain’s tourism-driven economy, Aena is positioning itself for long-term growth despite operating in a regulated environment. The question remains: Does this infrastructure powerhouse deserve a spot in your portfolio?

This is not a financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and I only do these post in order to do my own analysis and elaborate about my decisions, especially for my copiers and followers. If you consider investing in any of the ideas I present, you should do your own research or contact a professional financial advisor, as all investing comes with a risk of losing money. You are also more than welcome to copy me. 

For full disclosure, I should mention that I do not own any shares in Aena at the time of writing this analysis. If you would like to copy or view my portfolio, you can find instructions on how to do so here. If you want to purchase shares or fractional shares of Aena, you can do so through eToro. eToro is a highly user-friendly platform that allows you to get started on investing with as little as $50.

The Business

Aena is the world’s largest airport operator by passenger traffic and serves as the primary gateway for travel in and out of Spain, one of the most tourism-dependent economies in the world. Headquartered in Madrid and majority-owned by the Spanish government through ENAIRE, which holds a 51% stake, the company operates a uniquely integrated airport network consisting of 46 airports and 2 heliports across Spain, including critical hubs such as Madrid-Barajas and Barcelona-El Prat. Aena was originally established in 1991 as a public entity responsible for both airports and air navigation, but following a restructuring in 2014, the air navigation business was separated, allowing the company to focus entirely on airport operations. Today, its business is organized into four segments: aeronautical, commercial, real estate, and international. The aeronautical segment generates revenue from airline-related activities such as landing fees, passenger charges, aircraft parking, and security services, while the commercial segment captures high-margin income from retail, duty-free, restaurants, advertising, and parking within airport terminals. The real estate segment further monetizes its infrastructure by leasing office space, logistics facilities, hangars, and cargo areas, and the international segment extends its expertise abroad through concessions and partnerships in markets such as Brazil, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and Jamaica. Across these segments, Aena provides a comprehensive service offering to passengers, airlines, cargo operators, and handling agents, ensuring efficient and accessible operations supported by a wide network of external suppliers that provide construction, maintenance, energy, and other critical services. Aena has built a wide and durable competitive moat rooted in its near-monopoly position in Spain, where it controls the entire national airport network, a position reinforced by regulation, government ownership, and the strategic importance of air travel to the Spanish economy. Airports are among the most difficult infrastructure assets to replicate due to their immense capital requirements, regulatory complexity, and the need for political approval, making the likelihood of new entrants extremely low. This is particularly true for assets such as Madrid-Barajas and Barcelona-El Prat, which are effectively irreplaceable and serve as essential hubs for both domestic and international travel. The company also benefits from significant economies of scale, as its nationwide network allows it to optimize operations, spread fixed costs, and negotiate more effectively with airlines and commercial partners. In addition, its diversified revenue streams provide resilience, as commercial and real estate income can partially offset fluctuations in passenger volumes, while increasing passenger traffic drives strong operating leverage due to the fixed-cost nature of airport infrastructure. Aena’s long-standing operational expertise and reputation for efficient and well-functioning airports further strengthen its position, both domestically, where public and political support remains strong, and internationally, where the company leverages its know-how to win and manage concessions. Altogether, Aena combines monopoly-like characteristics, structural demand tailwinds from tourism, and scalable, high-margin revenue streams, resulting in a business with strong competitive advantages and long-term durability.

Management

Maurici Lucena Betriu serves as the CEO of Aena, a position he has held since 2018. He brings a unique blend of public and private sector experience, supported by a strong academic foundation in economics and finance. He holds a bachelor’s degree in Economics and Business Science from Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona, as well as a master’s degree in Economics and Finance from the Banco de España Centre for Monetary and Financial Studies in Madrid. Prior to joining Aena, Maurici Lucena Betriu held senior leadership roles across a range of institutions. In the public sector, he served as a member of the Parliament of Catalonia and was appointed Chairman of the European Space Agency, where he gained experience navigating complex international and regulatory environments. In the private sector, he worked at Banco Sabadell, where he held roles including Director of Equity and Prudential Management and Director of Prudential Regulation and Public Policy, developing a deep understanding of financial systems, regulation, and capital allocation. He has also contributed to academia as an associate professor in the Economics Department at Carlos III University in Madrid and is the author of a book on industrial policy, reflecting his broader interest in the intersection of economics, regulation, and long-term strategic development. Maurici Lucena Betriu assumed leadership of Aena at a pivotal time and successfully guided the company through the unprecedented disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, overseeing a recovery that not only restored traffic levels but ultimately surpassed pre-pandemic performance. Under his leadership, Aena has maintained strong operational discipline, continued to improve efficiency across its airport network, and expanded its international footprint through selective concessions and partnerships. His tenure has also been characterized by a balanced approach to navigating regulatory frameworks, managing relationships with airlines, and aligning the company’s strategy with national economic priorities, particularly given the importance of tourism to Spain. Maurici Lucena Betriu is often described as analytical, pragmatic, and steady, with the ability to operate effectively at the intersection of politics, regulation, and business. His combined experience across government, finance, and infrastructure, along with his proven ability to manage through crisis and recovery, positions him well to continue leading Aena as it balances growth, investment, and regulatory considerations in the years ahead.

The Numbers

The first number we will look into is the return on invested capital, also known as ROIC. We want to see a 10-year history, with all numbers exceeding 10% in each year. Aena’s returns dropped below zero during the pandemic because its airports still had to operate even when almost no one was flying. Most of its costs do not disappear when traffic falls, so when passenger numbers collapsed, profits disappeared while the assets remained the same, which pushed returns into negative territory for a short period. Outside of that, returns have consistently been positive, but not extremely high, and that comes down to the nature of the business. Airports are very expensive to build and maintain, which means Aena has a large asset base relative to its profits, and a significant part of its pricing is regulated by the government, limiting how much it can charge airlines. On top of that, Aena operates all airports in Spain as a single network, where large and highly profitable airports like Madrid and Barcelona effectively support smaller regional airports that are less profitable, which lowers overall returns but serves an important national purpose. The recent increase in returns to the highest levels in the past decade is mainly driven by a strong recovery in passenger traffic combined with the fact that Aena has not had to make equally large new investments at the same time. More people are now moving through largely the same infrastructure, which increases profitability significantly. At the same time, Aena has been improving how much it earns from each passenger through shops, restaurants, parking, and other services, which are more profitable than airline fees and help lift overall returns. There is also a timing effect at play, where the business is currently in a favorable phase with high demand and limited recent expansion, creating a temporary boost to returns. Looking ahead, returns can remain strong if travel demand continues to grow and Aena keeps increasing commercial revenue per passenger, but they are unlikely to rise indefinitely. The company will at some point need to invest more heavily in expanding and maintaining its airports, which will increase its asset base and typically bring returns down before the benefits of those investments are fully realized. In addition, regulation and the company’s role as a critical part of Spain’s infrastructure will continue to limit how high returns can go. Overall, Aena’s returns are best understood as stable but constrained over the long term, with periods of stronger performance when traffic growth and commercial improvements align with relatively low investment needs.

The next numbers are the book value + dividend. In my old format this was known as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used to use in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it moving forward. As you are used to see the numbers in percentage, I have decided to share both the numbers and the percentage growth year over year. To put it simply, equity is the part of the company that belongs to its shareholders – like the portion of a house you truly own after paying off part of the mortgage. Growing equity over time means the company is becoming more valuable for its owners. So, when we track book value plus dividends, we’re essentially looking at how much value is being built for shareholders year after year. Aena has been able to grow its equity in most years mainly because it generates steady profits and retains a meaningful portion of those earnings in the business. In normal conditions, the company benefits from consistent passenger traffic, strong cash generation, and additional income from commercial activities like retail and parking, which allows it to both pay dividends and still add to its equity base. The only exceptions were during the pandemic, when profits turned negative due to the collapse in air travel, which reduced retained earnings and therefore equity. In those years, the business was still operating and carrying its large asset base, but without the profits needed to support growth in equity. Another important factor is that Aena does not need to reinvest aggressively every single year to maintain its operations. Airports are long-lived assets, so while maintenance and periodic upgrades are required, there are periods where capital spending is relatively moderate compared to the cash the business generates. This allows equity to build over time. The structure of the business also plays a role. Because Aena operates a nationwide network and is partly state-owned, its strategy is relatively disciplined and predictable, with less emphasis on aggressive expansion and more focus on stable operations and long-term value. This supports a gradual and consistent increase in equity over time. Looking ahead, it is reasonable to expect that Aena can continue growing its equity in most years, as long as passenger traffic remains healthy and the company stays profitable. However, the growth will likely not be perfectly smooth. Periods of heavy investment in airport expansion or modernization can slow equity growth, and external shocks like economic downturns or disruptions to travel can temporarily reverse it, as seen during the pandemic. Over the long term, though, the combination of steady demand, recurring cash flow, and disciplined capital allocation suggests that equity should continue to trend upward.

Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins offer a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. Aena’s free cash flow turned negative during the pandemic for the same reason its returns did, because the business continued to operate while passenger traffic collapsed. Airports still needed to be staffed, maintained, and kept fully functional, so cash was going out while very little was coming in. Once travel recovered, free cash flow rebounded strongly, and in the past two years it has reached record levels. This reflects a combination of very high passenger traffic, solid pricing, and the fact that much of the infrastructure was already in place, allowing more people to move through the same airports without a proportional increase in costs. That is also why margins have been so high. When an additional passenger travels through an airport, the extra cost is relatively small, but the additional revenue from fees, shopping, parking, and services is meaningful, which makes the business highly profitable at scale. Another important driver of the strong cash generation has been the growth in commercial activities. Shops, restaurants, VIP lounges, and parking generate high-margin income, and as passenger volumes increase, these revenues grow faster than costs. Even though operating expenses have been rising due to inflation, higher wages, and increased service requirements, Aena has still managed to maintain very strong profitability, with EBITDA margins remaining among the highest in the industry. This shows that the underlying business is very efficient and benefits from strong operating leverage. Looking ahead, free cash flow is likely to remain solid, but the next phase of the business will look different. Aena is entering a new investment cycle under the DORA III framework, which will involve significant expansion and modernization of key airports such as Madrid, Barcelona, Malaga, and others. This means that while the business will continue to generate strong cash from operations, a larger portion of that cash will be reinvested into infrastructure. As a result, free cash flow may not grow as quickly in the coming years, and margins could come under some pressure as operating costs increase and investments ramp up. That said, these investments are expected to increase the long-term value of the business by expanding capacity and supporting future traffic growth. In terms of capital allocation, Aena uses its free cash flow in a relatively straightforward way. A significant portion is returned to shareholders through dividends, as seen in the recent proposal to increase the dividend following record profits. At the same time, the company reinvests in its airports to maintain quality, expand capacity, and meet regulatory requirements, while also funding selective international expansion through concessions. Overall, Aena’s free cash flow profile reflects a business that can generate substantial cash in normal conditions, but where cash usage will shift between shareholder returns and investment depending on where it is in its infrastructure cycle. The free cash flow yield is at its lowest level outside of the pandemic, suggesting that the shares are trading around fair value. However, we will revisit valuation later in the analysis.

Debt

Another important aspect to consider is debt. It’s crucial to assess whether a business has a manageable level of debt that can be repaid within three years. To do this, I divide the company’s total long-term debt by its earnings. Based on this calculation, Aena has 3,1 years of earnings in debt. This is slightly higher than I would prefer, but I don’t view it as a major risk, largely because the Spanish government owns 51% of the company. That ownership structure provides a layer of stability and reduces the likelihood of serious financial distress. It’s also worth noting that Aena has made debt reduction a priority, which is encouraging. In fact, the company’s debt relative to its earnings has been declining, supported by strong profit growth in recent years. This is also reflected in its credit ratings, which have been upgraded, and in its ability to access funding on attractive terms, as seen with its recent bond issuance. Even though total debt has increased somewhat due to international investments, particularly in Brazil, the company also holds a meaningful cash position that is not fully reflected in headline figures. While debt may increase somewhat in the coming years due to higher capital spending under the DORA III framework, I don’t believe this will become a concern, especially given the predictable nature of Aena’s cash flows and its strong position within critical national infrastructure.

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Risks

Macroeconomic factors are a risk for Aena because the company’s performance is closely tied to the overall health of the economy and global travel demand. When economic conditions weaken due to high inflation, rising interest rates, or lower consumer confidence, people tend to cut back on discretionary spending such as holidays and air travel. This is particularly important for Aena because Spain is one of the most tourism-dependent economies in the world, with the vast majority of international visitors arriving by air. A slowdown in travel demand would therefore directly reduce passenger numbers, which impacts both sides of Aena’s business, as fewer passengers mean lower income from airline fees as well as reduced spending in shops, restaurants, and parking within airports. Macroeconomic conditions can also indirectly affect travel through higher costs. For example, rising oil prices increase airline fuel expenses, which are often passed on to consumers through higher ticket prices. Even relatively small increases in travel costs can lead to meaningful changes in demand, especially among price-sensitive travelers such as tourists and low-cost airline customers. In addition, geopolitical tensions, such as instability in the Middle East, can further drive up energy prices and create uncertainty, both of which can dampen travel activity. At the same time, Aena is exposed to rising costs during periods of inflation. The company has already experienced higher expenses in areas such as security, maintenance, cleaning, and services for passengers with reduced mobility, as well as increasing staff costs due to wage agreements and labor market pressures. While Aena benefits from some inflation protection in its commercial contracts, where rents can increase with inflation, its aeronautical charges are regulated and do not fully adjust in real time. This creates a situation where costs can rise faster than revenues, putting pressure on margins in the short term. Interest rates are another important factor. As a capital-intensive business with a meaningful level of debt and a large upcoming investment program, Aena is sensitive to changes in financing costs. While the company currently has a solid balance sheet and good access to capital markets, the cost of new debt is likely to be higher than in the past, which can gradually increase financial expenses and weigh on profitability over time.

Laws and regulations are a risk for Aena because the company operates in one of the most heavily regulated industries, where a large part of its business is shaped not by market forces but by political decisions and regulatory frameworks. This is particularly important because Aena’s core revenue, especially from airline charges, is not freely set by the company but determined within regulatory frameworks such as the DORA agreements in Spain. These frameworks define how much Aena can charge per passenger and how much it is required to invest in infrastructure. This creates a situation where Aena can be required to spend heavily on expanding and maintaining airports without being fully compensated through higher tariffs, which could put pressure on profitability and cash flow. The ongoing negotiations around the DORA III framework illustrate this risk clearly, as airlines are pushing back against tariff increases while Aena is planning a significant investment program, and the final outcome will largely depend on regulatory and political decisions rather than purely economic logic. The political dimension adds another layer of uncertainty. The Spanish government is both Aena’s largest shareholder and the key decision-maker in its regulatory environment, which creates a potential conflict of interest. On one hand, the government benefits from higher dividends and a financially strong Aena, but on the other hand, it has an incentive to keep airport charges low to support tourism and economic activity. This dynamic means that decisions affecting Aena can sometimes be influenced by broader political priorities rather than shareholder returns. The episode where there was an attempt to block tariff increases highlights how Aena can become part of political debates, even if such proposals do not ultimately pass. Regulation also affects Aena through rising compliance requirements. The company must continuously adapt to evolving rules related to safety, security, environmental standards, and passenger rights. These regulations often lead to higher operating costs, for example through increased spending on security, maintenance, and services for passengers with reduced mobility. Management has already indicated that these types of costs are rising and are expected to continue increasing, partly due to stricter regulatory requirements and higher service expectations. Because many of these obligations are mandatory, Aena has limited flexibility to reduce costs in response. Labor regulation can also have a meaningful impact. Proposals to reduce working hours without reducing pay would increase labor costs in a business that relies on a large workforce to operate airports efficiently. Combined with existing wage agreements and rising staffing needs due to higher traffic and more complex operations, this could put additional pressure on margins.

Competition and concentration is a risk for Aena because a large part of its business is tied to a relatively small number of key assets and customers, which makes the company more exposed to changes in traffic patterns and airline behavior than it might initially appear. A significant share of Aena’s passenger traffic and revenue comes from its two main hubs, Madrid-Barajas and Barcelona-El Prat. These airports are among the busiest in Europe and are critical to Spain’s role as a global tourism destination, but their importance also means that any disruption, capacity constraint, or shift in airline strategy at these locations can have a disproportionate impact on the company’s overall performance. If airlines choose to reallocate capacity, prioritize other hubs, or reduce routes due to weaker demand, the effect would be felt directly in Aena’s earnings. There is also concentration on the airline side. Aena relies heavily on a small number of large carriers, particularly low-cost airlines such as Ryanair and Vueling, which together account for a meaningful share of total traffic. These airlines are highly price-sensitive and operate with flexible route networks, meaning they can relatively quickly shift capacity to other countries or airports if conditions become less attractive. This gives them bargaining power, especially during regulatory discussions around airport charges, and increases the risk that traffic could be redirected away from Aena’s network if costs rise or relationships deteriorate. At the same time, Aena faces competition from alternative modes of transport rather than from other airport operators. High-speed rail is already a strong competitor in Spain, particularly on short domestic routes such as Madrid to Barcelona, where train travel is often faster and more convenient when factoring in airport procedures. As governments continue to focus on reducing carbon emissions, there is a growing push to shift short-haul travel from planes to trains, which could gradually reduce demand for certain routes. This is particularly relevant for business travelers, who are more likely to choose rail when it offers comparable travel times. Looking further ahead, new forms of mobility could also become a competitive factor. Technologies such as electric air taxis and other forms of urban air mobility aim to provide short-distance transport without relying on traditional airports, using smaller takeoff and landing infrastructure closer to city centers. While these technologies are still in early stages and unlikely to have a near-term impact, they represent a potential long-term shift that could take a portion of regional traffic away from traditional airport networks.

Reasons to invest

Increasing passenger traffic is a reason to invest in Aena because the entire business becomes more profitable as more people move through its airports. Aena has delivered consistent and record-breaking growth in passenger volumes, with traffic reaching nearly 385 million passengers in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of all-time highs. This is particularly important because airports are built with a large fixed infrastructure, meaning that once capacity is in place, additional passengers generate significantly more revenue than cost. As a result, higher traffic directly translates into stronger earnings and cash flow, which is exactly what Aena has demonstrated in recent years. What makes this growth even more attractive is its broad-based nature. Passenger traffic has increased across most airports and throughout the year, with strong contributions from international travel. Spain remains one of the most popular tourist destinations in the world, and demand for travel to the country has proven to be resilient even in periods of economic uncertainty. In particular, long-haul traffic from regions such as Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East has been growing rapidly, while key European markets like the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Italy continue to provide a stable flow of visitors. This combination of resilient leisure demand and growing international connectivity supports long-term traffic growth. Another important factor is that Aena benefits from a unique network structure. It operates the entire Spanish airport system, which allows it to capture traffic across both major hubs and regional airports. Large and highly profitable airports like Madrid and Barcelona act as key gateways, while tourist-heavy destinations such as the Balearic and Canary Islands drive strong seasonal demand. This network effect helps maximize total passenger volumes and ensures that growth in one part of the system benefits the entire business. The increase in passenger traffic also supports growth in Aena’s higher-margin revenue streams. As more people travel, spending on shops, restaurants, parking, and premium services increases, often at a faster rate than passenger numbers themselves. This improves overall profitability and makes each additional passenger more valuable to the business. In this sense, traffic growth does not just increase revenue, it improves the quality of earnings. Looking ahead, Aena expects passenger growth to continue, although at a more normalized pace following the strong post-pandemic recovery. Even modest growth can be meaningful given the scale of the business and its operating leverage. At the same time, many of Aena’s airports are approaching capacity limits, which is one of the main reasons behind its planned investment program under the DORA III framework. These investments are designed to expand capacity and support future traffic growth over the coming decades, ensuring that Aena can continue to benefit from long-term increases in global air travel.

Commercial and real estate is a reason to invest in Aena because this part of the business is growing faster, is more profitable, and is less restricted by regulation than its core airport fees. While aeronautical revenue is capped and regulated, Aena has much more freedom to increase earnings from shops, restaurants, parking, advertising, and real estate, making this segment a key driver of long-term value creation. In recent years, this has become increasingly clear, as commercial and real estate revenue has surpassed €2 billion for the first time and continues to grow at a faster pace than passenger traffic, supported by both higher spending per passenger and improved contract terms. One of the most important developments is that Aena is no longer just renting out space but is actively optimizing its commercial offering. The company has been renovating terminals, adding more retail space, and introducing new brands that better match the profile of its passengers, particularly higher-spending international travelers. This has led to a steady increase in revenue per passenger, which has risen meaningfully in recent years. At the same time, new contracts with retailers and operators include higher minimum guaranteed rents, which provide a more predictable and higher baseline of income regardless of short-term fluctuations in traffic. Different parts of the commercial business are also performing very well. Duty-free, food and beverage, parking, car rentals, and VIP services have all shown strong growth, with some segments such as VIP lounges and car rental delivering particularly high increases. These activities benefit directly from rising passenger numbers, but they also grow through better pricing, higher usage rates, and improved offerings. This means that Aena is not only benefiting from more travelers, but also from extracting more value from each traveler. The real estate side adds another layer to the investment case. Aena owns significant land around its airports, which it is increasingly developing into logistics hubs, hangars, cargo facilities, hotels, and business parks. This creates additional revenue streams that are not directly tied to passenger volumes and can grow over time as demand for logistics and airport-adjacent infrastructure increases. The company’s “Airport City” projects in Madrid and Barcelona are long-term initiatives that aim to unlock further value from these assets and diversify the business. Another important aspect is that commercial and real estate revenue tends to be more resilient and higher margin than traditional airport fees. As passenger traffic grows, these revenues often increase at a faster rate, which improves overall profitability.

International growth is a reason to invest in Aena because it adds a new layer of growth, diversification, and long-term upside beyond its already strong position in Spain. While the Spanish airport network remains the core of the business, Aena has been steadily building a meaningful international presence, and this part of the company is now contributing significantly to both revenue and earnings. In 2025 alone, international operations generated close to €400 million in EBITDA, showing that this is no longer a small or experimental segment but a real and growing part of the business. One of the key benefits of international expansion is diversification. Aena’s domestic business is heavily tied to Spain’s economy, tourism flows, and regulatory environment. By expanding into markets such as Brazil and the United Kingdom, the company reduces its reliance on a single country and gains exposure to different economic cycles and growth drivers. This makes the overall business more resilient, as weakness in one region can be offset by strength in another. At the same time, Aena is leveraging its operational expertise in new markets. The company has decades of experience managing large airport networks efficiently, and it applies this same model internationally. This is particularly evident in Brazil, where Aena has become one of the largest airport operators and is already seeing strong improvements in performance. Passenger traffic is growing, margins are increasing, and as the required investments in these airports are completed, profitability is expected to improve further. In simple terms, Aena is taking assets that were not operating at their full potential and gradually improving them using its own playbook. The international portfolio also provides exposure to attractive long-term markets. In Brazil, Aena operates airports that serve both leisure and business travel, including important hubs like Congonhas in São Paulo, which benefits from high-frequency domestic traffic. In the United Kingdom, its stake in London Luton Airport gives it access to one of the largest and most important aviation markets in the world, with continued growth potential supported by capacity expansion. The recent acquisitions of stakes in Leeds Bradford and Newcastle airports further strengthen this presence and create additional opportunities for growth. Another important point is that international growth can become a meaningful driver of future earnings. Aena has explicitly stated its ambition to increase the share of EBITDA coming from international operations over time, aiming for a better balance between Spain and the rest of the world. As these assets mature and traffic continues to grow, they can contribute more steadily to profits and cash flow, especially as the heavy initial investments in infrastructure begin to normalize.

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Valuation

Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculator for free.

The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 1,42, which is from 2025. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 10%. Finbox expects EPS to grow by 10% in the next five years. Additionally, I have selected a projected future P/E ratio of 20, which is twice the growth rate. This decision is based on Aena's historically higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Finally, our minimum acceptable rate of return has already been established at 15%. After performing the calculations, we determined the sticker price (also known as fair value or intrinsic value) to be €18,21. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy Aena at a price of €9,10 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.

The second calculation is known as the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that a company owner (or stockholder) receives on the purchase price of the company essentially represents its return on investment. The minimum annual return should be at least 10%, which I calculate as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 2.787, and capital expenditures were 720. I attempted to analyze their annual report to calculate the percentage of capital expenditures allocated to maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 504 in our calculations. The tax provision was 674. We have 1.500 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (2.787 – 504 + 674) / 1.500 x 10 = €19,71 in Ten Cap price.

The final calculation is called the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With Aena's Free Cash Flow Per Share at €1,38 and a growth rate of 10%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is €17,36.

Conclusion

I believe that Aena is an intriguing company with strong management. The company has built a moat through its near-monopoly position in Spain, where it controls the entire national airport network, a position reinforced by regulation, government ownership, and the strategic importance of air travel to the Spanish economy. Outside of the pandemic, Aena has delivered a solid ROIC, which reached its highest level in 2025, while free cash flow also reached a record high and margins have remained strong. Macroeconomic factors are a risk for Aena because weaker economic conditions can reduce travel demand, directly lowering passenger numbers and revenue from both airline fees and commercial activities, while inflation and higher interest rates can increase costs and financing expenses, putting pressure on profitability. Laws and regulations are a risk for Aena because a large part of its revenue and investment decisions are determined by political and regulatory frameworks rather than market forces, limiting pricing power and creating uncertainty around returns. Competition and concentration is a risk for Aena because a large share of its traffic and revenue depends on a few key airports and airline partners, making it vulnerable to changes in airline strategies or disruptions at major hubs, while alternative transport options like high-speed rail can gradually reduce demand on certain routes. Increasing passenger traffic is a reason to invest in Aena because higher volumes directly translate into stronger earnings and cash flow as more passengers move through largely fixed infrastructure, while also boosting high-margin commercial revenue. Commercial and real estate is a reason to invest in Aena because it is a faster-growing, higher-margin, and less regulated part of the business that allows the company to extract more value per passenger and generate additional income through retail, services, and property development. International growth is a reason to invest in Aena because it provides diversification and adds new sources of revenue and earnings beyond its core Spanish operations, allowing the company to leverage its expertise in markets such as Brazil and the United Kingdom. Overall, I believe that Aena is a great company, and buying shares at the Ten Cap price of €19 would be a good long-term investment.

My personal goal with investing is financial freedom. It also means that to obtain that, I do different things to build my wealth. If you have some extra hours to spare each month, you can turn a few hours a week into a substantial amount of money in a few years. If you are interested to know how I do it, you can read this post.

I hope you enjoyed my analysis! While I can’t post about every company I analyze, you can stay updated on my trades by following me on Twitter. I share real-time updates whenever I buy or sell, so if you’re making your own investment decisions, be sure to follow along!

Some of the greatest investors in the world believe in karma, and in order to receive, you will have to give. If you appreciated my analysis and want to get some good karma, I would kindly ask you to donate a bit to ADEPAC. It is a charity I know first hand and I know they do a great job and have very little money. If you have a few Euros to spare, please donate here by clicking on the Paypal icon. Thank you.