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The Watches of Switzerland Group: Precision in Luxury Retail Expansion

  • Glenn
  • Aug 31, 2024
  • 21 min read

Updated: Jul 26


Watches of Switzerland is a leading retailer of luxury watches and jewellery, with exclusive brand partnerships and a growing presence in the US and Europe. As it expands into pre-owned watches and branded jewellery, the company is building on its strong position in a resilient and supply-constrained market. The question is whether this luxury retailer deserves a place in your portfolio.


This is not a financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and I only do these post in order to do my own analysis and elaborate about my decisions, especially for my copiers and followers. If you consider investing in any of the ideas I present, you should do your own research or contact a professional financial advisor, as all investing comes with a risk of losing money. You are also more than welcome to copy me. 


For full disclosure, I should mention that I do not own any shares in The Watches of Switzerland Group at the time of writing this analysis. If you would like to copy or view my portfolio, you can find instructions on how to do so here. If you want to purchase shares or fractional shares of The Watches of Switzerland Group, you can do so through eToro. eToro is a highly user-friendly platform that allows you to get started on investing with as little as $50.



The Business


Watches of Switzerland Group PLC is a luxury watch and jewellery retailer based in Leicester, United Kingdom. The company traces its origins back to 1924 and has grown over the years through various mergers and expansions. Today, it operates well-known retail banners such as Watches of Switzerland, Goldsmiths and Mappin & Webb in the UK, as well as Mayors, Betteridge and Analog:Shift in the United States. It also runs online stores in all the regions where it operates. The group sells a wide range of luxury and classic watches, jewellery, and gift items. It provides services such as repairs, servicing, insurance, and pre-owned watch sales. One of its defining strengths is the way it works with some of the most respected luxury watch brands in the world. Watches of Switzerland runs dedicated boutiques on behalf of brands like Rolex, OMEGA, TAG Heuer, Breitling, TUDOR, Grand Seiko, BVLGARI and Fope. These boutiques operate under strict brand agreements that limit where and how luxury watches are sold, and they set high standards for store presentation, staff training and customer service. These agreements take years to secure, which makes them difficult for competitors to replicate. Watches of Switzerland’s competitive moat is built on exclusive, long-term partnerships with the world’s top luxury watch brands, which are protected by strict distribution agreements, and reinforced by its scale, which allows for superior inventory management, nationwide coverage, and consistent investment in service and client experience. Because only a limited number of retailers are allowed to carry the most in-demand watch brands, and because supply of these watches is often lower than demand, being an authorised retailer becomes incredibly valuable. Watches of Switzerland has spent years building close relationships with brand partners, putting it in a unique position in the market. Another important advantage is the company’s size. By operating many showrooms and having a strong presence in both the UK and US, the company is able to manage its inventory more efficiently, serve customers more effectively, and invest in both physical locations and digital tools in ways that smaller competitors cannot match. It also allows them to offer consistent service quality across regions and gain better terms with landlords and suppliers. The business is further strengthened by its ability to operate across channels and categories. It combines physical stores, branded boutiques, e-commerce, servicing, and pre-owned sales in a way that few others in the industry do. It also benefits from a strong reputation and many years of experience in luxury retail, helping it to attract and retain clients with excellent service.


Management


Brian Duffy serves as the CEO of Watches of Switzerland Group, a position he has held since joining the company in 2014. He brings decades of leadership experience in global retail, marketing, and finance, and has been instrumental in transforming Watches of Switzerland into a leading luxury watch specialist with a growing international footprint. Before taking the helm at Watches of Switzerland, Brian Duffy served as Group President of Polo Ralph Lauren Europe and the Middle East, where he led the brand’s expansion and operations across the region for nine years while based in Geneva, Switzerland. Earlier in his career, he held senior roles at Playtex, rising to the position of Chief Financial Officer by the age of 33. Following Playtex’s acquisition by Sara Lee Corporation, he transitioned from finance into marketing and branding, where he made an early mark with the launch of the Wonderbra brand, one of the most successful product marketing campaigns of its time. In a notable mid-career pivot, Brian Duffy took a break from the corporate world to pursue a degree in contemporary music. He later returned to business leadership when he was offered the opportunity to lead Polo Ralph Lauren’s European business. Under his guidance, Watches of Switzerland has undergone a dramatic transformation, expanding its footprint across the United Kingdom, the United States, and Europe, while deepening exclusive relationships with the world’s leading luxury watch brands. He is a Chartered Accountant with ICAS and holds an Honorary Doctorate from Glasgow Caledonian University. Known for his strong communication skills and executional discipline, Brian Duffy is widely respected by investors and analysts. According to an analysis by Jefferies, he is considered a major asset to the company. His deep understanding of the luxury sector, international retail experience, and financial expertise have been central to the Group’s long-term strategy and success. Given his proven ability to lead across diverse functions and markets, and his vision for building long-term brand and client relationships in a supply-constrained, high-barrier industry, I believe Brian Duffy is exceptionally well-positioned to guide Watches of Switzerland through its next phase of growth.


The Numbers


The first number we will look into is the return on invested capital, also known as ROIC. We want to see a 10-year history, with all numbers exceeding 10% in each year. However, the Watches of Switzerland Group made their IPO in June 2019, so we only have data from the past five years. It's also important to note that the Watches of Switzerland Group's fiscal year runs from the start of May to the end of April, which means the numbers from 2020 do not cover a full year. Watches of Switzerland has consistently delivered a strong ROIC above 10 percent since its IPO due to a combination of structural advantages in the luxury watch industry and disciplined operational execution. At the core of its success are long-standing relationships with the world’s most prestigious watch brands, including Rolex, OMEGA, and Breitling. These partnerships are governed by selective distribution agreements that tightly control who can sell their products and under what conditions. As a result, competition is limited, discounting is minimal, and demand often exceeds supply, particularly for brands like Rolex. This supply-constrained environment supports healthy margins and strong pricing power. The company also benefits from a high-margin product mix and low exposure to markdowns. Luxury watches do not follow seasonal fashion cycles and typically retain their value, allowing Watches of Switzerland to sell with minimal promotional activity. In addition, after-sales services such as repairs, insurance, and pre-owned watch sales contribute recurring, higher-margin revenue that enhances overall profitability. Its capital-efficient business model further supports high returns. Many of the company's showrooms and mono-brand boutiques are leased rather than owned, which reduces the capital required for expansion. Some boutique arrangements are structured in close coordination with brand partners, further easing inventory and capital burdens. This approach allows the company to scale its footprint without significant asset intensity. Operational scale provides another important advantage. The group’s size, particularly in the UK, allows for dynamic inventory management, efficient allocation of resources, and strong productivity per store. Expansion has been carefully targeted toward high-traffic, high-income locations, ensuring that each new investment contributes meaningfully to returns. Together, these factors explain why Watches of Switzerland continues to earn strong ROIC.


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The next numbers are the book value + dividend. In my old format this was known as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used to use in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it moving forward. As you are used to see the numbers in percentage, I have decided to share both the numbers and the percentage growth year over year. To put it simply, equity is the part of the company that belongs to its shareholders – like the portion of a house you truly own after paying off part of the mortgage. Growing equity over time means the company is becoming more valuable for its owners. So, when we track book value plus dividends, we’re essentially looking at how much value is being built for shareholders year after year. Since going public, Watches of Switzerland has steadily grown its equity base year after year, driven primarily by strong and consistent profitability. The company has benefited from resilient demand for luxury watches, particularly from brands like Rolex, OMEGA, and TAG Heuer, where supply often lags demand. This has supported healthy revenue growth and stable gross margins, even in periods of broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Because the company has been able to convert a significant portion of its revenue into operating profit, it has steadily increased its retained earnings over time. While it does pay dividends, these have been modest, allowing Watches of Switzerland to reinvest most of its profits back into the business. This reinvestment has supported the opening of new stores, the development of digital capabilities, and the company’s international expansion, particularly in the United States and Europe. As a result, retained earnings have continued to grow and are added to shareholder equity each year. The company has also managed its day-to-day finances efficiently. Since demand for luxury watches is usually higher than the supply, products sell quickly and do not sit in storage for long. This means the company does not need to tie up too much money in unsold inventory. As a result, it generates strong cash flow, which can then be used to grow the business or strengthen its financial position.


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Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins provide a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. Watches of Switzerland has continued to generate positive free cash flow every year since its IPO. This is mainly because the company is profitable, manages its inventory well, and does not need to spend heavily just to keep the business running. Demand for luxury watches is usually higher than supply, so products sell quickly, and the company doesn’t have large amounts of unsold stock sitting in its stores. This helps turn earnings into real cash that the business can use. In the 2025 financial year, the company still generated a solid free cash flow, but the levered free cash flow margin was the lowest it has been since the IPO. This drop was mainly caused by a one-time change in how the company pays its suppliers, which affected the timing of cash going out. As a result, the percentage of profit that was turned into free cash flow, known as cash conversion, fell to 51%. However, if this one-off impact is excluded, the cash conversion would have been 71%. This means that, under normal conditions, the company would have turned a much larger share of its profit into cash. So while the free cash flow margin dropped in 2025, the underlying cash generation of the business remains strong. This points to a short-term issue rather than a long-term concern. Looking ahead, shareholders can expect the company to continue using its cash in a disciplined way. The top priority is to reinvest in the business by opening new stores and upgrading existing ones, which helps support future growth. The company is also looking to make acquisitions, especially in the US, where there are still good opportunities to expand. When there is extra cash left over after funding growth, the company plans to return it to shareholders. In 2025, for example, it launched a £25 million share buyback program and completed £11 million of it during the year. The free cash flow yield suggests that the shares are trading at a very attractive valuation. However, we are going to revisit valuation later in the analysis.


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Debt


Another important thing to look at is the company’s debt. A simple way to check if debt is manageable is to see whether the company could repay it within three years using its current earnings. For Watches of Switzerland, the current debt level is equal to about 3,5 years of earnings, which is slightly above that benchmark. At first, this might raise some concerns. However, when we look closer, the situation is not as worrying as it may seem. The company’s net debt-to-EBITDA ratio is just 0,6 times, which is considered low and healthy by most financial standards. The reason for the slightly higher debt is the company’s acquisition of Roberto Coin. Because the company makes solid profits, doesn’t rely heavily on borrowing, and manages its finances carefully, its current level of debt doesn’t appear to be a problem. In fact, the purchase of Roberto Coin is already helping the business grow and fits well with its long-term plan to expand in high-end jewellery.


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Risks


Macroeconomic conditions are a risk for Watches of Switzerland. The current environment remains volatile, with broader economic challenges such as high inflation, rising interest rates, and slower economic growth all putting pressure on consumer spending. These conditions have reduced the purchasing power of many customers, especially in the mid-to-high income bracket that often drives growth in luxury retail. Management has also noted that the UK luxury watch market is going through a period of normalization following the post-COVID boom, during which consumers had more disposable income and fewer travel or entertainment options, leading to increased spending on watches and jewellery. As that temporary boost fades, sales growth is becoming harder to sustain. At the same time, Swiss watch brands have raised prices significantly in recent years, partly due to the strength of the Swiss Franc. This makes luxury watches even more expensive for international customers, especially those who are more aspirational buyers rather than ultra-wealthy. As a result, some potential customers may delay or reconsider their purchases altogether. If these macroeconomic challenges persist or worsen, Watches of Switzerland could face continued pressure on both sales and profit margins. A combination of weaker consumer demand, higher product costs, and fewer tailwinds from COVID-era spending trends could make the operating environment more difficult in the years ahead. Adding to this uncertainty, the outcome of potential US tariff changes on Swiss-made watches remains unclear. Management has acknowledged the issue but says it is too early to assess the impact. If new tariffs are introduced, this could further weigh on demand in the key US market. All of these factors make macroeconomic conditions a real and ongoing risk for the company.


The absence of VAT-free shopping for international tourists is a risk for Watches of Switzerland. Since the UK government ended the VAT refund scheme in 2021, international visitors can no longer reclaim the 20 percent sales tax on purchases made during their trips. This change has made the UK a less attractive destination for luxury shopping compared to countries like France and Italy, where tourists can still shop tax-free. For Watches of Switzerland, which operates several high-end showrooms in central London that previously relied heavily on tourist spending, this shift has real consequences. International tourists typically make larger purchases and are more likely to buy high-value items like luxury watches and jewellery. Without the incentive of VAT refunds, many of these shoppers are now choosing to buy in other European cities, leading to a decline in tourist-driven sales in the UK. As a result, the UK market has become more dependent on domestic consumers, who generally have lower spending power and may be more cautious given the current economic environment. This puts added pressure on the company’s UK operations at a time when the overall luxury market is already going through a period of post-COVID normalization and weaker demand. The luxury retail industry, including Watches of Switzerland, has been vocal in urging the UK government to reinstate tax-free shopping, arguing that its removal is costing the country significant tourist spending and making London less competitive as a luxury shopping destination. However, as of 2025, the policy remains unchanged. Unless VAT-free shopping is reinstated, this will likely remain a long-term structural challenge for the company’s UK growth.


Maintaining strong relationships with luxury watchmakers is a key part of Watches of Switzerland’s business model, and also a source of risk. The company relies heavily on partnerships with top brands like Rolex, OMEGA, Breitling, and TAG Heuer to attract customers and drive sales. These brands are not just suppliers; they are the main reason many clients visit Watches of Switzerland showrooms in the first place. However, these relationships are governed by distribution agreements that can be terminated under certain conditions. Some contracts include clauses that give brands the right to exit the agreement if there is a change in ownership or leadership at Watches of Switzerland. This creates a clear vulnerability, as any major corporate change such as an acquisition or a leadership shake-up could put those crucial agreements at risk. Even in the absence of such changes, there is always the possibility that a brand may decide not to renew its agreement or might reduce the number of stores that are allowed to sell its products. This could happen if the brand believes its image would be better supported by a different retail partner or prefers to focus more on selling directly to customers. This risk is amplified by an industry-wide trend toward direct-to-consumer strategies. Many luxury watch brands are expanding their own retail networks or improving their e-commerce capabilities, aiming to sell more directly through their own boutiques and websites. As this shift accelerates, third-party retailers like Watches of Switzerland could see their role reduced, their margins squeezed, or their access to inventory limited. An important development that highlights this risk is Rolex’s 2023 acquisition of Bucherer, one of the largest luxury watch retailers in Europe. While Rolex stated that Bucherer would continue to operate independently, the move was widely seen as a strategic step to bring more of the distribution network under Rolex’s control. This raises questions for the rest of the industry, including Watches of Switzerland. If Rolex were to expand its ownership of retail or shift more sales through Bucherer over time, it could eventually reallocate product supply away from other retailers, including Watches of Switzerland. Even if that isn’t the immediate plan, the acquisition underscores how dependent retailers are on decisions made by the brands they represent.


Reasons to invest


The strong track record of growth in the luxury watch market is one of the most compelling reasons to consider investing in Watches of Switzerland. The industry is shaped by several long-term structural strengths that continue to support both resilience and consistent expansion. Luxury watches attract a diverse and loyal customer base, including both collectors and first-time buyers across age groups, income levels, and genders. Many become repeat clients, and their engagement is often fueled by a combination of craftsmanship, status, and emotional connection. Demand for luxury watches has historically exceeded supply, a dynamic that luxury watchmakers carefully protect to preserve brand value and pricing power. Unlike many other consumer products, watchmakers avoid overproduction and deliberately limit supply to support exclusivity. Even if brands wanted to increase production significantly, they face real constraints due to the labor-intensive nature of Swiss watchmaking and a shortage of highly skilled artisans. This built-in supply discipline not only protects margins but also helps sustain long-term pricing trends and resale value. Over time, the luxury watch market has demonstrated consistent growth across multiple regions. In the United States, for example, years of underinvestment in retail limited the category’s full potential. Since 2019, however, the market has accelerated, with Watches of Switzerland reporting a compound annual growth rate of nearly 25% in the U.S. from fiscal year 2020 to 2025, well ahead of the broader market’s 14%growth. The U.S. is now the largest global market for luxury watches. Similarly, the UK has shown steady performance with a 5,1% annual growth rate from 2019 to 2024, and Watches of Switzerland has again outperformed, growing at over 8% in the same period. Finally, the luxury watch industry benefits from high barriers to entry. Brand value is built over decades, and the manufacturing process demands precision, expertise, and trust. Distribution is tightly controlled, and brands are selective in who they partner with. Watches of Switzerland sits in a privileged position as one of the most trusted and established retailers in this space, with access to the world’s most desirable brands and a history of outperforming the broader market.


The growth and success of the pre-owned luxury watch market, especially the Certified Pre-Owned segment, is an increasingly important reason to invest in Watches of Switzerland. Over the past few years, the company has made significant investments in this area, and the results have already exceeded expectations. A major part of this success is the Rolex Certified Pre-Owned program, which Watches of Switzerland was among the first to launch. Customers can now purchase pre-owned Rolex watches directly from the company, with each watch authenticated and backed by a Rolex-issued two-year international guarantee. This assurance of authenticity has made the pre-owned market far more attractive and trustworthy for consumers, particularly those who may have been hesitant to buy used watches in the past. Rolex’s involvement has helped legitimise the pre-owned space at the highest level, and Watches of Switzerland is one of the few authorised partners benefiting directly from that trust. The company has also expanded its certified pre-owned offering beyond Rolex, both in the United States and the United Kingdom. In the US, it strengthened its expertise through the acquisition of Analog:Shift, a respected specialist in the pre-owned category. The growth has been so strong that certified pre-owned is now the company’s second-largest luxury watch brand category. Management has described the momentum in this segment as excellent, and performance has consistently exceeded expectations. The business has not only delivered strong sales but has also attracted a new group of clients, expanding the company’s reach and helping build long-term relationships. Strategically, the pre-owned category fits well with the rest of the business. It gives the company access to models that are no longer produced, which is especially appealing to collectors and enthusiasts. In fact, the majority of luxury watches ever made are no longer available new. Pre-owned also helps meet demand when the primary market is limited. Many customers turn to pre-owned options when they are unable to purchase their preferred model directly, due to supply constraints.


Luxury branded jewellery represents a major growth opportunity for Watches of Switzerland, and it is becoming an increasingly important part of the company’s long-term strategy. The global jewellery market is still highly fragmented, with a large share of sales coming from unbranded or locally branded products. However, the trend is clearly shifting toward branded jewellery, as consumers place more value on brand heritage, design consistency, and quality assurance. This long-term shift is already visible in many major markets, and Watches of Switzerland is positioning itself to benefit directly from it. To capture this opportunity, the company acquired Roberto Coin Inc., a well-known luxury jewellery brand with a strong presence in North America. Roberto Coin is currently the sixth-largest luxury jewellery brand in the region and is especially well-regarded among department stores, independent retailers, and high-end clientele. Since the acquisition, management has expressed even more confidence in the brand’s potential than they initially expected. Early results have been encouraging, and the company has been able to maintain Roberto Coin’s established distribution network while also planning meaningful expansion. Watches of Switzerland is now building out Roberto Coin through multiple channels. This includes launching mono-brand boutiques in high-traffic U.S. locations such as Hudson Yards in New York, the Miami Design District, and Caesars in Las Vegas. These stores will be run directly by the company, allowing it to capture both wholesale and retail margins. The group is also upgrading store presentation and launching new shop-in-shop concepts within its Mayors showrooms, which have already led to noticeable sales increases. What makes branded jewellery particularly attractive from an investment standpoint is its higher average selling price, greater frequency of self-purchase, and more stable demand profile compared to unbranded alternatives. It is typically less cyclical and less reliant on promotions, offering higher margins and more predictable growth. Watches of Switzerland can also apply its experience in high-touch client service, retail execution, and luxury brand partnerships from its core watch business to this adjacent category.


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Valuation


Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators for free.


The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 0,23, which is from fiscal year 2025. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 15%. Finbox expects EPS to grow by 22,9% a year in the next five years, but 15% is the highest I use. Additionally, I have selected a projected future P/E ratio of 30, which is twice the growth rate. This decision is based on the Watches of Switzerland's historically higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Finally, our minimum acceptable rate of return has already been established at 15%. After performing the calculations, we determined the sticker price (also known as fair value or intrinsic value) to be £6,90. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy the Watches of Switzerland Group at a price of £3,45 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.


The second calculation is known as the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that a company owner (or stockholder) receives on the purchase price of the company essentially represents its return on investment. The minimum annual return should be at least 10%, which I calculate as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 184, and capital expenditures were 68. I attempted to analyze their annual report to calculate the percentage of capital expenditures allocated to maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 48 in our calculations. The tax provision was 22. We have 239,9 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (184 – 48 + 22) / 239,9 x 10 = £6,58 in Ten Cap price.


The final calculation is called the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With the Watches of Switzerland Group's Free Cash Flow Per Share at £0,48 and a growth rate of 15%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is £7,58.


Conclusion


I believe that the Watches of Switzerland Group is an intriguing company with strong management and a clear moat built on exclusive long-term partnerships with the world’s top luxury watch brands. The company has consistently delivered a ROIC above 10 percent since its IPO and has maintained positive free cash flow. However, macroeconomic conditions present a risk, as high inflation, rising interest rates, and slower economic growth have reduced spending among mid-to-high income consumers who drive luxury sales. As the temporary boost from the post-COVID period fades, price increases from Swiss brands and uncertainty around potential US tariffs could put further pressure on demand and margins. The absence of VAT-free shopping for international tourists is another risk, as it makes the UK less attractive for luxury shopping, leading many high-spending visitors to buy elsewhere in Europe and increasing the company’s reliance on more cautious domestic shoppers. Watches of Switzerland also depends heavily on strong relationships with a small group of key luxury watchmakers, and any disruption, whether from changes in ownership, non-renewal of agreements, or the industry’s shift toward direct-to-consumer sales, could impact its access to products and pricing power. Rolex’s acquisition of Bucherer highlights how quickly dynamics in the distribution model can shift. On the positive side, the long-term growth of the luxury watch market supports the investment case, with demand consistently exceeding supply, high barriers to entry, and steady global expansion. Watches of Switzerland has outperformed the broader market by leveraging its strong brand partnerships and trusted retail presence. The company is also benefiting from momentum in the certified pre-owned segment, particularly through its early involvement in the Rolex Certified Pre-Owned program and its acquisition of Analog:Shift, which has made pre-owned its second-largest watch category. This part of the business attracts a wider range of clients and provides access to rare models no longer available new. In addition, luxury branded jewellery represents a compelling growth opportunity, offering higher margins and more frequent purchases than unbranded alternatives. Through its acquisition of Roberto Coin and planned boutique expansions in key US locations, Watches of Switzerland is well-positioned to capitalise on the global shift toward branded jewellery. Overall, there are many things to like about the company, and for investors looking to gain exposure to the luxury watch market, this offers a differentiated way to do so. I believe buying shares at the Margin of Safety price of £3,45 could be a good long-term investment.


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