Pirelli: Driving Premium Performance

Pirelli is a global leader in the premium and prestige tyre market, known for its strong brand, advanced technology, and deep integration with top automakers. With over 80% of sales coming from high-value products, Pirelli focuses on performance, safety, and innovation. As electric vehicles and smarter mobility reshape the industry, Pirelli is leaning into long-term trends with cutting-edge R&D and a targeted high-margin strategy. The question is: Does this premium tyre specialist belong in your portfolio?

This is not a financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and I only do these post in order to do my own analysis and elaborate about my decisions, especially for my copiers and followers. If you consider investing in any of the ideas I present, you should do your own research or contact a professional financial advisor, as all investing comes with a risk of losing money. You are also more than welcome to copy me. 

For full disclosure, I should mention that I do not own any shares in Pirelli at the time of writing this analysis. If you would like to copy or view my portfolio, you can find instructions on how to do so here. If you want to purchase shares or fractional shares of Pirelli, you can do so through eToro. eToro is a highly user-friendly platform that allows you to get started on investing with as little as $50.

The Business

Pirelli & C. S.p.A., founded in Milan in 1872, is a global leader in the premium and high-performance tire segment, focused exclusively on consumer markets such as cars, motorcycles, and bicycles. Operating in over 160 countries, the company specializes in high-value tires, which now represent 81 percent of its total sales. Pirelli's moat is built on five core pillars: strong brand equity in the premium and luxury segments, deep integration with top-tier automakers through tailor-made original equipment tires, consistent technological innovation driven by substantial R&D investment, exclusive involvement in global motorsport as a testing ground and brand enhancer, and a wide, globally distributed retail and service network. First, Pirelli has built a powerful brand over more than a century, associated with luxury, safety, and performance. Its long-standing partnerships with top-tier automakers like Ferrari, Lamborghini, and Porsche give it a deep integration into the design and engineering of new vehicles. In the Prestige segment, which includes the most premium vehicles, Pirelli holds over 50 percent market share in the Original Equipment channel. This close collaboration with manufacturers leads to tailor-made tires that are optimized for specific vehicle models, which competitors cannot easily replicate. Once a car is fitted with Pirelli tires from the factory, replacement purchases often remain with the same brand, reinforcing customer stickiness. Second, Pirelli’s focus on high-value tires, as opposed to commodity or industrial segments, allows it to concentrate its resources on innovation and premium positioning. The company consistently invests over five percent of its High Value revenue into research and development. It employs more than 2.100 R&D professionals and holds a portfolio of over 6.000 patents. Its innovations include Cyber Tyre, which integrates sensors for real-time monitoring; Elect, a line tailored for electric vehicles; Run Flat and Seal Inside technologies for puncture resistance; and a noise-cancellation system to enhance driving comfort. This emphasis on differentiated technology creates barriers to entry and justifies higher pricing. Third, motorsport involvement is not just for branding—it’s a testing ground for innovation. As the exclusive supplier to Formula 1 since 2011 and a key partner in over 350 racing championships, Pirelli develops and validates tire technologies under extreme conditions. These advancements often make their way into commercial products. This cycle of innovation, proven on the track and transferred to the road, reinforces the company's technical leadership and premium image. Fourth, Pirelli benefits from economies of scope and global reach while still offering local customization. With 18 factories and 12 regional R&D centers, the company can adapt its products to local markets while maintaining centralized innovation. Its distribution network spans more than 20.000 retail points worldwide, making it difficult for newcomers to match its global accessibility and brand consistency.

Management

Andrea Casaluci serves as the CEO of Pirelli & C, a role he assumed in August 2023 following more than two decades of leadership within the company. He brings deep institutional knowledge, global experience, and operational expertise, having worked across key functions such as logistics, marketing, commercial strategy, and product development in multiple geographies. His appointment reflects Pirelli’s commitment to continuity and its focus on executing its high-value strategy with discipline and consistency. Andrea Casaluci began his career at Pirelli in 2002 as a production planner in central logistics and, after a brief stint in consulting, rejoined the company in 2005 as Head of Demand Planning. He quickly progressed through roles in marketing, logistics, and product strategy, including serving as Marketing Director for Spain and Portugal and later as Logistics Manager for the Motorcycle Business Unit. His responsibilities steadily expanded to include pricing, product marketing, and the Original Equipment Aftermarket. In 2015, Andrea Casaluci became Chief Commercial Officer for the Asia-Pacific region before returning to Italy in 2017 as Chief Operating Officer Europe and CEO Italy. That same year, he was also appointed Executive Vice President of the Prestige Business Unit and Head of Original Equipment. In 2018, he was promoted to General Manager Operations, overseeing Pirelli’s global industrial, supply chain, and commercial activities. Andrea Casaluci holds a degree in engineering from Politecnico di Milano. Over the years, he has become known for his hands-on leadership style, strong relationships with automotive OEM partners, and ability to drive execution across complex international operations. His deep familiarity with Pirelli’s strategy and operations, combined with his proven leadership, makes him the right person to lead Pirelli moving forward.

The Numbers

The first number we will look into is the return on invested capital, also known as ROIC. We want to see a 10-year history, with all numbers exceeding 10% in each year. As Pirelli made their IPO in 2017, we only have the numbers from 2017 and onwards, and the numbers from 2017 don't cover a full year. The first number we will look into is the return on invested capital, also known as ROIC. We want to see a 10-year history, with all numbers exceeding 10% in each year. As Pirelli made their IPO in 2017, we only have the numbers from 2017 and onwards, and the numbers from 2017 don't cover a full year. Pirelli’s historically low ROIC, often below 10%, can be explained by the nature of its industry and the structure of its balance sheet. Making tires, especially high-quality ones like Pirelli does, requires a lot of money to build and maintain factories, buy specialized equipment, and run testing facilities. Pirelli has 18 plants across 12 countries, and those buildings and machines are expensive. Even when business is going well, it's hard to earn high returns when so much money is tied up in physical assets. This is just the nature of the tire industry. Companies need to spend a lot up front, and it takes time to earn that money back. Pirelli has also expanded by buying other businesses. When a company makes an acquisition, the price often includes not just the value of factories or equipment, but also brand value, customer relationships, and other hard-to-measure things. These extra amounts are recorded as goodwill or intangible assets on the balance sheet. The problem is that these assets don’t directly generate profit, but they still count when calculating returns. So even if Pirelli is making decent money, the returns look lower because the total amount of money invested, including these acquisitions, is large. In short, Pirelli’s low return figures are not necessarily a sign of poor performance, but more a result of being in a capital-heavy business and having a balance sheet shaped by past acquisitions. Pirelli’s ROIC reached its highest level since the IPO in 2024 thanks to a combination of strategic focus and operational improvements. A key driver was the company’s continued shift toward high-value tires, which are more profitable and typically used in premium and electric vehicles. This allowed Pirelli to raise prices and improve its product mix, boosting profitability without relying on volume growth. At the same time, the company became more efficient in how it operated. It reduced costs through better inventory management, factory automation, and improved productivity across its supply chain. These efforts helped expand margins and made the business more resilient.

The next numbers are the book value + dividend. In my old format this was known as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used to use in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it moving forward. As you are used to see the numbers in percentage, I have decided to share both the numbers and the percentage growth year over year. To put it simply, equity is the part of the company that belongs to its shareholders – like the portion of a house you truly own after paying off part of the mortgage. Growing equity over time means the company is becoming more valuable for its owners. So, when we track book value plus dividends, we’re essentially looking at how much value is being built for shareholders year after year. The company has steadily increased its equity year after year, with the exception of 2020 when the pandemic disrupted operations. The main reason equity has grown is that Pirelli has remained consistently profitable. Each year, when the company earns a profit, a portion of that profit is kept within the business rather than being paid out entirely as dividends. This retained profit is added to equity and helps strengthen the company’s financial position. The company’s approach to balancing earnings and dividends has allowed it to build equity over time. The only exception was in 2020, when the pandemic hurt global demand, reduced earnings, and temporarily interrupted this trend.

Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins offer a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share.  It is not surprising that the company has delivered a positive free cash flow in all years since its IPO. The company has seen clear improvements in both free cash flow and its margin over the past two years. This stronger performance is mainly the result of three things working together. First, Pirelli has become more profitable by focusing on high-value tires, which are more expensive and offer better margins. By selling a higher share of premium products and successfully raising prices, the company has been able to generate more cash from each sale. Second, Pirelli has become more efficient in how it runs its business. It has kept better control of inventory, introduced more automation in its factories, and improved productivity across its operations. These changes have helped reduce costs and allowed more of its earnings to be converted into cash. Third, the company has managed its spending and use of cash more carefully. While it continues to invest in its business, it has been more disciplined with capital expenditures and working capital, which means it is using less cash to fund day-to-day operations and growth. Pirelli uses some of its free cash flow to pay dividends. The company usually pays a dividend once a year, based on the profit it made the year before. As free cash flow has grown in recent years, Pirelli has been able to increase its dividend. If this trend continues, investors can expect the dividend to keep growing over time. The free cash flow yield is at its second highest level ever and indicates that the shares are trading at a very attractive valuation. However, we will revisit valuation later in the analysis.

Debt

Another important area to investigate is debt, and we want to see whether a business has a reasonable level of debt that could be paid off within three years. To assess this, we divide total long-term debt by earnings. When applying this measure to Pirelli, the result shows that it would take approximately 5,7 years of earnings to pay off its long-term debt. This is significantly higher than I would like to see, and it raises some questions about the company's financial flexibility. That said, there are a few important things to keep in mind before jumping to conclusions. Management has been working to improve the company’s financial health. In their latest update, they mentioned that debt has come down and that the company has plenty of cash and unused credit available. This means Pirelli has enough money on hand to cover its upcoming debt payments for the next few years, which helps reduce the risk. Lastly, management said they are aiming to reduce debt even further, targeting a level that would make the balance between debt and earnings much healthier. In short, even though Pirelli’s debt is higher than I would usually like to see, the company is clearly taking steps to manage it. They have enough cash and credit to handle upcoming payments, and they have a plan in place to gradually bring the debt down. So while it’s something I will keep an eye on, it’s not a major concern at this point and it wouldn’t necessarily keep me from investing in Pirelli.

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Risks

Macroeconomic conditions represent a key risk for Pirelli, and several factors contribute to this vulnerability. As a global manufacturer with operations and sales across multiple regions, Pirelli is directly exposed to changes in economic growth, inflation, interest rates, trade policies, and geopolitical tensions. One of the main concerns is the overall slowdown in global growth. High inflation, although easing, continues to weigh on consumer purchasing power, while tight monetary policies and elevated interest rates make it more expensive for both companies and consumers to borrow and spend. These conditions can lead to weaker demand for tires, especially in the original equipment segment, which depends heavily on car production. In fact, Pirelli already expects a slight decline in original equipment demand in 2025, particularly in Europe and North America, due to the continued weakness in auto manufacturing. Trade tensions also add uncertainty. The United States, which accounts for over 20% of Pirelli’s revenue, recently imposed new tariffs on car tires imported from Europe and Brazil. Since Pirelli supplies a large portion of its U.S. market from those regions, these tariffs could reduce profitability unless exemptions are granted or production is shifted. Although Pirelli has a local plant in Georgia and imports a significant share of tires from Mexico, which is not currently subject to tariffs, it may still face cost pressures if trade barriers increase or persist. Management has acknowledged that if current tariffs remain in place, the negative impact on earnings could be significant. Beyond the U.S., the global political and economic landscape remains unstable. Conflicts such as the war in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and the ongoing strain in U.S.-China relations could disrupt global trade flows, drive up costs, and affect consumer confidence. Pirelli also operates in countries with more volatile political and economic environments like Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Russia, where shifts in tax policy, regulations, or currency controls could affect business performance.

Competition is a significant risk for Pirelli because the global tire market is crowded with well-established players that have strong brands, deep resources, and large-scale operations. Companies like Michelin, Bridgestone, Goodyear, and Continental all compete in similar segments and invest heavily in research, technology, and marketing to protect and grow their market share. This creates constant pressure on Pirelli to innovate, improve product performance, and control costs to stay competitive. While Pirelli has carved out a clear niche in the premium and prestige segments, where it supplies tires to high-end car brands and focuses on high-value products, it still operates in an industry where brand loyalty, pricing, and product quality play a huge role. If competitors offer comparable or better performance at a lower price point, Pirelli could lose customers, especially as consumers become more price-sensitive in uncertain economic conditions. One of the specific challenges Pirelli faces is from low-cost Asian tire brands, particularly in the lower end of the market. Pirelli has already started to pull back from the "standard" segment, especially smaller-sized tires (such as 13 to 15 inches), where it is facing aggressive competition from these cheaper alternatives. This decision supports its strategy to focus on higher-margin products, but it also means giving up some market share, which can make it harder to maintain scale in certain areas. Despite high barriers to entry in the tire industry, such as the need for advanced technology, large manufacturing capacity, and safety certifications, existing competitors can still intensify the pressure in Pirelli’s core segments. Many of them are also moving upmarket, introducing premium offerings and forming partnerships with car manufacturers, which threatens Pirelli’s leadership in the prestige and premium space.

The evolution of long-term demand is a meaningful risk for Pirelli because how, when, and why people use vehicles is changing, and these shifts could affect the overall need for tires in ways that are difficult to predict. Several forces are reshaping mobility. The rise of electric vehicles, the development of self-driving technologies, and growing digital connectivity are all changing the types of vehicles people use and how often they use them. At the same time, cultural changes are taking hold, more people are waiting longer to get a driver’s license, and fewer see owning a car as essential, especially in cities. Governments are also playing a role by introducing regulations that aim to reduce traffic and pollution in urban areas, which may lead to fewer private cars on city roads over time. These shifts were further accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which changed how people move around. Many now work from home more often, reducing the need for daily commuting. Public transport usage dropped sharply during the pandemic and has only partially recovered in many places. Meanwhile, there’s been a rise in the use of alternatives like bicycles, e-scooters, and shared mobility options. As a result, the pattern of mobility has become more fragmented and less predictable. For a company like Pirelli, which relies on strong and steady demand for car and motorcycle tires, these long-term changes pose a challenge. If people drive less, especially in cities, there could be fewer tire replacements over time. On the other hand, more frequent long-distance driving, possibly driven by automated vehicles, might increase demand in other areas. But the balance of these effects is still uncertain.  A long-term decline in private car use, shifts toward shared fleets, or major growth in alternative forms of transport could all reshape demand for tires in ways that are hard to model today.

Reasons to invest

Focusing on the High Value segment is a key reason to consider investing in Pirelli. This part of the tire market, which includes larger rim sizes, typically 18 inches and above, is not only more profitable but also structurally more resilient than the Standard segment. While overall market demand in smaller rim sizes is expected to decline, High Value demand is forecast to grow at a steady pace, driven especially by replacement tires, where consumers continue to prioritize performance, safety, and brand reputation. Pirelli has leaned into this trend, and the results are clear. High Value products now make up over 80% of the company’s total sales, and Pirelli continues to gain market share in this segment, especially in 18-inch and larger tires. In both the replacement and original equipment channels, Pirelli has outperformed the broader market, thanks to its focus on premium positioning, product innovation, and close relationships with automakers. At the same time, Pirelli is deliberately reducing its exposure to the Standard segment, particularly smaller tire sizes where price competition from low-cost Asian brands is intense. By exiting lower-margin markets and redirecting resources to the High Value category, Pirelli is protecting profitability and making better use of its production capacity. This strategy has already proven effective in regions like North and South America, where the company has recorded strong volume growth in High Value tires, even as overall market conditions remain mixed. By focusing on what it does best, premium, high-performance tires, Pirelli is better positioned to maintain pricing power, strengthen its brand, and deliver stable long-term growth.

Electric vehicles (EVs) represent a major growth opportunity for Pirelli and are a strong reason to consider investing in the company. As EV adoption continues to accelerate globally, especially in key markets like China and Europe, Pirelli is well positioned to benefit thanks to its strong presence in the premium tire segment and its technological expertise. EVs place greater demands on tires compared to traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. They are typically heavier, require lower rolling resistance to improve range, and need better grip to handle instant torque. In addition, noise reduction is more important in EVs because there is no engine sound to mask tire noise. This means automakers are looking for high-performance tires with advanced features that go beyond basic durability or price. These are exactly the kinds of products where Pirelli specializes. Pirelli has already established itself as a leader in this space. Its market share in the premium EV segment is significantly higher than in the traditional ICE segment. For example, if Pirelli holds around 20% share in ICE original equipment for premium cars, its share in premium EVs is closer to 28–30%. This shows that as automakers transition to EVs, they are increasingly turning to Pirelli as a trusted partner, especially in the higher-end segments. This trend is unfolding quickly. In China, nearly half of all new car registrations in early 2025 were EVs, while Europe saw EV registrations grow by about 40% year-over-year, reaching nearly 20% of total registrations. As more automakers launch EV models, and as governments continue to push for cleaner transport, this shift is expected to accelerate further. What gives Pirelli an edge is not just its existing partnerships with legacy automakers, but also its growing role in supplying fast-rising premium EV brands, especially in China and the U.S. This helps diversify the company’s customer base and reduce dependence on slower-growing parts of the market.

Innovation is one of the most compelling reasons to invest in Pirelli. The company consistently demonstrates a strong commitment to research and development, which not only helps it stay ahead of competitors but also strengthens its position in premium and high-performance markets. A key example is the Cyber Tyre, a technology that embeds sensors inside the tyre to gather real-time data about road conditions, tyre wear, temperature, pressure, and grip. This information can be used by the vehicle's control systems to enhance safety, performance, and efficiency, especially valuable in modern cars equipped with driver assistance or autonomous features. Pirelli is already collaborating with several automakers and with Bosch to make this technology more widely available, reducing the need for custom integration with each car model. This partnership is aimed at embedding Pirelli’s data stream directly into vehicles’ central control units, paving the way for smarter and safer driving. Beyond sensors, Pirelli’s innovation spans across materials, design, and digital tools. The company uses advanced simulation and artificial intelligence to design and test tyres virtually before they’re produced. This allows for faster development, better performance predictions, and lower environmental impact. For example, new algorithms have been developed to estimate tyre wear in real time, based on actual road use. That data also feeds into the creation of next-generation tyres. Pirelli’s products consistently earn top rankings in independent tests. Its fifth-generation P ZERO, Cinturato SF3, and Diablo Supercorsa tyres have all been praised for their performance, safety, and grip in various conditions. In addition, Pirelli introduces new tyres tailored to different vehicle types and markets every year, from all-terrain SUVs in North America to custom touring motorbikes and even high-end bicycles. This strong culture of innovation reinforces Pirelli’s brand value and allows it to build deeper relationships with premium and prestige car manufacturers.  By continuing to invest heavily in cutting-edge technologies and smart tyre solutions, Pirelli is setting itself up for long-term growth and differentiation in a crowded market.

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Valuation

Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators for free.

The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 0,47, which is from the year 2024. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 11%. Finbox expects EPS to grow by 11,1% in the next five years. Additionally, I have selected a projected future P/E ratio of 26, which is double the growth rate. This decision is based on Pirelli's historically higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Finally, our minimum acceptable rate of return has already been established at 15%. After performing the calculations, we determined the sticker price (also known as fair value or intrinsic value) to be €7,26. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy Pirelli at a price of €3,63 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.

The second calculation is known as the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that a company owner (or stockholder) receives on the purchase price of the company essentially represents its return on investment. The minimum annual return should be at least 10%, which I calculate as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 1.293, and capital expenditures were 376. I attempted to analyze their annual report to calculate the percentage of capital expenditures allocated to maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 263 in our calculations. The tax provision was 147. We have 1.000 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (1.293 – 263 + 147) / 1.000 x 10 = €11,77 in Ten Cap price.

The final calculation is referred to as the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With Pirelli's free cash flow per share at €0,92 and a growth rate of 11%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is €12,11.

Conclusion

I believe that Pirelli is an intriguing company with solid management. It has built a moat through strong brand equity in the premium and luxury segments, close partnerships with top-tier automakers through custom original equipment tires, consistent technological innovation supported by significant research and development, exclusive involvement in global motorsport which enhances both product performance and brand recognition, and a wide international retail and service network. While its return on invested capital has historically been low, that is typical for the sector, and the company reached its highest ROIC in 2024 while also improving free cash flow and margin performance in the past two years. Macroeconomic conditions remain a key risk because Pirelli’s global operations make it sensitive to shifts in economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and trade policy, all of which can affect demand and increase costs. Competition is another risk, as the tire industry includes powerful players such as Michelin and Bridgestone and rising pressure from low-cost Asian brands, particularly in more commoditized segments. The long-term outlook for tire demand is also uncertain, given changes in how people use vehicles, including reduced car ownership in cities, more remote work, and the rise of alternative transport options, all of which may reduce the need for frequent tire replacement. However, Pirelli’s strategic focus on the High Value segment is a clear strength. This part of the market is more profitable and stable, and Pirelli has shifted over 80 percent of its sales into this category, gaining share and protecting margins as it exits lower-value segments. Electric vehicles are also a compelling growth area for Pirelli, as EVs require advanced tires that meet strict performance and safety standards, which aligns with Pirelli’s expertise. The company is already gaining a larger share of the premium EV segment thanks to its strong product offering and relationships with both legacy and emerging automakers. Innovation further reinforces the case for Pirelli. It continues to lead in areas like smart tires, virtual design tools, and performance-oriented products that support its premium positioning and deepen collaboration with carmakers. Overall, I think there is a lot to like about Pirelli, and if I were to invest in any company in the tire industry, this would be the one. That said, I believe there are better opportunities in other sectors, so I will not be buying shares at this time.

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