Evolution: A Market Leader in Live Casino Gaming

Evolution is a global provider of online casino games, offering live dealer tables, game shows and digital casino content to hundreds of gambling operators around the world. The company does not run casinos itself but supplies the technology and games behind them and earns a share of the money wagered on its platform. As more gambling moves from physical casinos to online and mobile devices, Evolution has positioned itself at the center of this shift. The question remains: Does this gaming infrastructure leader deserve a spot in your portfolio?

This is not a financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and I only do these post in order to do my own analysis and elaborate about my decisions, especially for my copiers and followers. If you consider investing in any of the ideas I present, you should do your own research or contact a professional financial advisor, as all investing comes with a risk of losing money. You are also more than welcome to copy me. 

For full disclosure, I should mention that I do not own any shares in Evolution at the time of writing this analysis. If you would like to copy or view my portfolio, you can find instructions on how to do so here. If you want to purchase shares or fractional shares of Evolution, you can do so through eToro. eToro is a highly user-friendly platform that allows you to get started on investing with as little as $50.

The Business

Evolution is a Swedish B2B technology provider that serves as the core infrastructure layer of the global online casino industry. The company does not operate casinos or acquire players. Instead it supplies the games, studios, dealers and streaming systems that allow gambling operators such as DraftKings, Flutter and Entain to offer casino experiences to their users. In practice the operator owns the customer relationship while Evolution powers the gameplay. Founded in 2006, the company’s original purpose was to digitize traditional land based table games and make them playable online in real time. The foundation of the business is live casino. Evolution operates large scale studios across multiple jurisdictions where real dealers host blackjack, roulette and baccarat around the clock in multiple languages. These games are streamed in high definition to players through operator websites and apps, recreating the trust and entertainment value of a physical casino. Over time the company expanded the concept into entertainment oriented game shows such as Crazy Time and Monopoly Live. These products blend gambling and entertainment and attract a broader audience than traditional casino players, increasing engagement and play time. Live casino generates the majority of revenue and typically monetizes through a revenue share where Evolution receives a percentage of gross gaming revenue as well as fixed fees for dedicated branded tables tailored to individual operators. Through acquisitions including NetEnt, Red Tiger, Big Time Gaming and Nolimit City the company expanded into slots and RNG table games. This segment is strategically important because it allows operators to source most of their casino content from a single supplier. While live casino requires studios and personnel, the RNG segment is purely software based and therefore highly scalable. Together the two segments create a complete casino content ecosystem that increases wallet share and strengthens commercial relationships with operators. Evolution’s competitive moat comes primarily from scale and complexity. Running a live casino requires a combination of software engineering, broadcasting, logistics and workforce management. The company manages thousands of tables and tens of thousands of employees operating continuously across many regulated jurisdictions. Replicating this network would require not only significant capital but also operational expertise developed over many years. New entrants cannot simply build software but must build a global production organization comparable to a television broadcaster combined with a casino operator. The company also benefits from a first mover advantage that created network effects. Operators prefer suppliers with large game liquidity and reliability because downtime directly impacts revenue. As more operators connect to the platform more tables are opened, which improves availability and player experience and attracts even more operators. This feedback loop makes the largest provider increasingly attractive and raises the risk for operators to migrate to smaller competitors. Switching costs further reinforce the moat. Integration requires technical work, regulatory approval and potential disruption to player activity. Dedicated branded tables often become part of an operator’s identity, making replacement commercially unattractive even if alternatives exist. The cost of failure during migration is far greater than potential savings, encouraging long term relationships. Regulation adds another barrier. Evolution primarily operates in regulated markets and partners must hold approved licenses. Because regulatory approval is jurisdiction specific and slow, competitors must build compliance expertise country by country while Evolution already operates established compliant studios. This makes expansion by new entrants significantly harder. Continuous product innovation and proprietary streaming technology strengthen the position further. High video quality and low latency are essential for trust in real money gaming, and the company invests heavily in these capabilities. More importantly, it repeatedly introduces new game formats that expand the market rather than merely competing within it. The combination of live casino and slots also turns the company into a one stop supplier, increasing dependency from operators.

Management

Martin Carlesund serves as the CEO of Evolution, a role he assumed in 2017 after joining the company in 2015. He has overseen the company during a period of rapid expansion in which Evolution transformed from a live casino specialist into the dominant global supplier of online casino infrastructure, broadening its offering beyond live dealer games into slots and digital table games through a series of strategic acquisitions. Prior to joining Evolution, Martin Carlesund gained leadership experience across digital media and online businesses. He served as CEO of Highlight Media Group, a large European gaming affiliate network, and previously held senior leadership roles at Eniro where he managed operations in Sweden and Finland and worked with digital marketplace platforms. These roles provided experience in performance based online business models, customer acquisition ecosystems, and scalable internet services that later proved directly relevant to Evolution’s B2B platform strategy. Martin Carlesund holds a Master of Science in Finance and also studied computer science, law and mathematics at the University of Borås, the Gothenburg School of Economics and Linköping University. His multidisciplinary background reflects the combination of technology, regulation and commercial strategy required in the regulated online gambling industry. During Martin Carlesund’s tenure Evolution significantly accelerated its product innovation and global footprint. The company expanded its studio network across multiple continents, introduced live game show formats that broadened the appeal of online casino gaming, and completed major acquisitions including NetEnt, Red Tiger, Big Time Gaming and Nolimit City. These moves shifted Evolution from a niche live dealer provider into a full service content supplier and strengthened its ecosystem around operators. Martin Carlesund is often described as ambitious yet pragmatic, combining long term strategic vision with operational discipline. He has emphasized continuous improvement, fast product development cycles and a culture where employees are encouraged to take responsibility and innovate. Internally he promotes a relatively flat organizational structure focused on accountability and speed, which has supported the company’s ability to launch new game concepts frequently and scale internationally. His stated ambition has been to make Evolution the best company in the world within its field, and the strategy has consistently focused on outgrowing the market rather than defending existing share. Under his leadership Evolution has reinforced its market leadership in live casino while building a broader platform designed to deepen relationships with operators and increase share of wallet. Given his experience in digital platform businesses, execution of large scale expansion and focus on maintaining a high performance culture, Martin Carlesund appears well positioned to continue leading Evolution as the industry matures and competition increases.

The Numbers

The first number we will look into is the return on invested capital, also known as ROIC. We want to see a 10-year history, with all numbers exceeding 10% in each year. Evolution clearly meets that requirement, as returns have remained far above that threshold throughout the entire period. Earlier in its history the company reported extremely high returns above 50%. This reflected a phase where the business was still relatively small and could grow rapidly without needing much infrastructure. Each new table added a lot of profit while very little capital had to be invested. The noticeable drop in 2020 did not come from weaker economics but from expansion. The acquisition of NetEnt and the buildout of studios across newly regulated markets significantly increased the amount of capital in the business. Profits did not decline, however the capital invested increased significantly, which mechanically reduced the return percentage. Since then returns have gradually improved again as those investments have been utilized. New studios initially open with spare capacity and become more profitable over time as more operators and players join the platform. This explains the steady recovery in recent years. The very high returns in the early years were unlikely to last once Evolution expanded into a global operation. Back then the company was small and could grow quickly without needing many studios, employees, or equipment. Today it runs a worldwide network, which naturally requires more buildings, staff, and technology. That lowers the return as a percentage, but it also makes the business far more durable. Going forward, returns should remain high and could improve somewhat as more players and operators use the existing studios, allowing the same facilities to generate more revenue over time. However, they will probably not return to the exceptional levels seen in the early days. The drop therefore reflects the cost of building a global platform rather than any weakening of the business itself.

The next numbers are the book value + dividend. In my old format this was known as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used to use in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it moving forward. As you are used to see the numbers in percentage, I have decided to share both the numbers and the percentage growth year over year. To put it simply, equity is the part of the company that belongs to its shareholders – like the portion of a house you truly own after paying off part of the mortgage. Growing equity over time means the company is becoming more valuable for its owners. So, when we track book value plus dividends, we’re essentially looking at how much value is being built for shareholders year after year. Equity has increased strongly for most of the period because Evolution has consistently generated more profit than it needs to run the business. Since the company does not require large ongoing reinvestment relative to its earnings, retained profits have accumulated on the balance sheet year after year. The particularly large jumps around 2020 to 2022 were also influenced by the NetEnt acquisition, which added substantial assets and expanded the scale of the company. The drop in 2025 does not mean the business became weaker. It mainly comes from how the company chose to use its money. Evolution spent a large amount of cash buying back its own shares, and when a company does that, the cash leaves the balance sheet and equity goes down. If the amount spent on buybacks is higher than the profit kept in the company that year, total equity will fall even though the company is still earning good money. Over time equity should continue to grow again, but probably not every single year. As long as the company earns more than it pays out or spends on share buybacks, the balance sheet will expand. Some years may still show declines if buybacks are particularly large, but that would simply reflect money being returned to shareholders, not a problem in the business itself.

Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins provide a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. Evolution has historically turned a large part of its earnings into real cash. Once a studio is built and games are running, the company does not need to spend very much to keep operating, so most of the profit ends up as free cash flow. That is why both free cash flow and the cash flow margin have been very high and generally rising over time. The drop in 2025 does not suggest the business became weaker. It mainly comes from timing effects. Some payments from partners arrived later than usual around year end, so the cash had not yet been received even though the revenue was recorded. Management also noted that revenue moved more unevenly during the year, which caused larger swings in how much cash was sitting temporarily outside the company. At the same time, Evolution spent a bit more on new studios and game development. When cash comes in later than usual or more money is invested during the year, free cash flow looks lower for that period. Because these factors are temporary, cash flow should improve again once payments normalize and new studios start contributing revenue. Over longer periods the business still produces strong cash generation, so the margin will likely remain high even if some individual years are lower. Evolution mainly uses its free cash flow in two ways. Part is reinvested into building studios, developing new games and entering new markets. A large share is also returned to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends, showing that the company produces more cash than it needs to run and grow the business. The free cash flow yield is at its highest level in the period and suggests the shares may be trading at an attractive valuation. However, we will revisit valuation later in the analysis.

Debt

Another important aspect to consider is debt. It is crucial to assess whether a business carries a manageable level of debt that could be repaid within roughly three years by comparing long term debt to earnings. Looking at Evolution’s financials, the company currently has no debt, making it a non issue for investors. Evolution has in fact operated without debt since 2018, highlighting the strength of its balance sheet and cash generation. While the company could choose to use debt again for large acquisitions in the future, its consistent profitability and high cash flow suggest it would remain manageable. Based on its history, debt is unlikely to become a major risk factor.

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Risks

Cyberattacks and fraud is a risk for Evolution because the company’s product is essentially a live broadcast of real casino games. Criminal groups, particularly in parts of Asia, have managed to hijack these live video streams and restream them on unauthorized gambling sites. This allows illegal operators to offer Evolution’s games without having any agreement with the company and without paying revenue share fees. The direct consequence is lost revenue. Evolution normally earns a percentage of the money wagered on its games, but when the stream is stolen the gambling activity still happens while Evolution receives nothing. Management has linked weaker growth in certain periods directly to this problem, showing that it is not just theoretical but already affecting financial performance. It also impacts profitability. The company has had to invest heavily in security systems, monitoring and technical countermeasures to block unauthorized access. At the same time, the lost activity often comes from high engagement markets, meaning the revenue disappearing is relatively valuable. Until the situation improves, margins remain under pressure because the company both loses income and spends more to protect the platform. Another challenge is that the problem is difficult to solve completely. Evolution must balance stricter protection with maintaining a smooth experience for legitimate players and operators. If security becomes too restrictive, it risks disrupting normal customers, but if it is too light, criminals continue exploiting the system. Management has described this as an ongoing battle rather than something that can be fixed quickly. There is also a broader risk that the issue could spread geographically. So far the problem has been concentrated mainly in Asia, but if similar methods were adopted in other regions it could undermine parts of the business model. Since Evolution operates as an infrastructure provider, trust from regulated partners is essential. Persistent piracy could therefore affect both revenue growth and long term relationships with operators.

Regulatory risks is a risk for Evolution because the company only operates through licensed gambling operators and regulated markets. Its revenue depends directly on how governments choose to structure online casino rules, and those rules are constantly changing across countries. When regulation shifts, Evolution must adapt its products, studios and technical setup to each jurisdiction, which can slow growth and increase costs. One challenge is the complexity of operating globally. Every country has its own licensing requirements, game restrictions, responsible gambling rules and technical standards. A game format allowed in one market may be restricted in another, forcing Evolution to modify or remove parts of its offering. In some cases regulators require local studios, local staff or specific technical safeguards, meaning the company must invest before revenue fully develops. These adjustments can temporarily reduce profitability and delay expansion. Another important issue is that regulation can shrink the legal market instead of growing it. In several European countries stricter limits on deposits, betting size or game features have pushed players toward unlicensed operators. Evolution does not work with unregulated sites, so when players move outside the regulated system the gambling activity still exists but happens without Evolution participating. Management has noted that this has already affected growth in certain regions because the regulated share of the market has declined. Taxes also play a role. For example, higher gambling taxes in the United Kingdom will likely reduce how much operators can afford to pay out to players or spend on marketing. Since Evolution earns a percentage of wagers placed on its games, anything that reduces betting activity indirectly lowers its revenue even though the company itself is not taxed directly on those bets. Finally, the pace of legalization matters. Growth in places like the United States depends on new states approving online casino gaming, which often takes years and can stall unexpectedly. This makes long term growth partly dependent on political decisions rather than purely market demand.

Customer concentration is a risk for Evolution because a meaningful share of its revenue comes from a relatively small number of very large gambling operators. Even though the company serves hundreds of partners, a handful of major platforms generate a large portion of activity on its games. The largest customer alone represents around 12% of revenue, and the five largest together account for close to 40%. This means Evolution’s financial performance is partly tied to the decisions and performance of a few companies. If one of these operators were to change strategy, reduce marketing, prioritize another supplier, or experience regulatory problems in key markets, the impact on Evolution could be noticeable. The players themselves would still exist, but they might temporarily move to different platforms where Evolution has less presence. Because Evolution earns a percentage of wagers placed through each operator, a shift in traffic at a major partner can quickly affect revenue growth. Large customers also have stronger negotiating power. As major operators grow and consolidate, they can request customized games, dedicated tables, or more favorable commercial terms. Evolution benefits from scale, but very large partners may still push for lower pricing or additional services, which can put pressure on margins over time. Another aspect is strategic dependence. If a major operator develops more in house content or signs exclusive agreements with competing providers, Evolution could lose part of its share on that platform. Even partial changes can matter because the largest operators generate very high volumes compared to smaller ones. Because of this, the company remains exposed to the strategies, financial health and competitive decisions of its largest partners, which could affect revenue stability in certain periods.

Reasons to invest

The growth of the online casino market is a reason to invest in Evolution because the company earns money whenever more gambling activity moves online. Evolution does not depend on one specific brand becoming popular. Instead it sits behind hundreds of operators and receives a percentage of the wagers placed on its games. As the total market expands, the company benefits automatically without needing to win players itself. A long term shift is taking place from physical casinos to digital gaming. Younger players increasingly prefer playing from home or on their phone rather than visiting a casino location. Many traditional casino companies now view an online presence as necessary for future growth and partner with suppliers like Evolution to offer live dealer tables and games on their platforms. This means Evolution grows alongside the broader digitalization of the gambling industry rather than relying only on market share gains. Live casino in particular has been one of the fastest growing parts of online gambling. These games replicate the social and visual experience of a real casino, which attracts players who previously avoided traditional online slot style gaming. As more markets mature, operators tend to expand the live offering because it increases engagement and player spending. Since Evolution is the leading supplier in this category, a rising share of live casino within the online market directly benefits the company. Technology also supports continued growth. Faster internet speeds, better streaming quality and widespread smartphone usage make real time gaming smoother and more accessible. A large majority of activity on Evolution’s platform already comes from mobile devices, showing that the product fits naturally with how people increasingly use entertainment services. As connectivity improves globally, more players can access live games, expanding the potential audience. Regulation is another driver. When countries legalize online gambling, activity shifts from unlicensed sites toward licensed operators who need reliable suppliers. Because Evolution focuses on regulated partners, each newly regulated market tends to create additional demand for its services. The company therefore benefits both from new countries opening and from existing markets gradually moving players into legal channels.

Investing in new studios is a reason to invest in Evolution because the company’s core product cannot grow purely through software alone. Live casino requires real dealers, physical tables and local broadcasting facilities. When Evolution builds a new studio it increases the number of games that can run simultaneously, which directly increases how much gambling activity the platform can handle. More tables therefore translate into higher potential revenue without needing to win players itself. Demand for live casino has consistently exceeded available capacity, meaning operators want to offer more tables and languages than the company can always supply immediately. Expanding the studio network allows Evolution to remove these bottlenecks and let existing partners grow. Instead of depending only on attracting new customers, growth can come from the same operators simply putting more players onto additional tables. Regulation also makes local studios increasingly important. Many countries now require gambling suppliers to operate within their jurisdiction, hire local staff or meet specific technical standards. By building studios in new markets such as the United States, Brazil and other regions, Evolution becomes eligible to operate in places competitors cannot easily enter. Each studio therefore opens a door to an entire regulated market rather than just adding capacity to an existing one. There is also a scale advantage. Running live casino at global level requires expertise in hiring, training and managing thousands of dealers around the clock. Evolution has developed processes that allow it to launch studios relatively quickly, and once built they can serve multiple operators simultaneously. The studios are connected across time zones, so activity can shift between locations depending on demand, increasing efficiency over time. Because live casino is operationally complex and expensive to build, every additional studio strengthens the company’s competitive position. Competitors must commit large upfront investment before knowing whether they will gain sufficient volume, while Evolution can fill new capacity using its existing operator relationships. This makes expansion both a growth driver and a barrier to entry, supporting long term revenue potential as more markets regulate online gaming and demand continues to rise.

Product innovation is a reason to invest in Evolution because the company’s growth depends on keeping players interested, not just providing a technical platform. Online casino games compete for attention in the same way as digital entertainment, and player interest can shift quickly. By continuously launching new formats, themes and mechanics, Evolution keeps its content fresh so operators remain reliant on its games to attract and retain users. The company has expanded live casino beyond traditional table games into entertainment driven formats that resemble interactive shows rather than gambling sessions. Titles like Crazy Time and newer releases have demonstrated that new concepts can significantly increase player engagement and betting activity. When a successful game launches, operators typically see higher usage and longer playing sessions, which directly increases Evolution’s revenue since it earns a percentage of wagers placed. Innovation also expands the potential audience. Traditional online casino games mainly appealed to experienced gamblers, while newer formats blend elements from video games, social media style content and live entertainment. Faster pacing, visual effects and interactive bonus rounds attract younger and more casual players who might not otherwise participate in casino gaming. This allows the market itself to grow rather than Evolution simply competing for existing players. The company’s product roadmap shows how central this is to its strategy. Evolution consistently releases large numbers of new games every year across both live and slot formats, including licensed entertainment brands such as MONOPOLY and other recognizable concepts. These releases generate attention among operators and players before they even launch, helping maintain demand for its platform and reinforcing its reputation as the industry’s creative leader. Frequent innovation also strengthens relationships with operators. Online casinos need a steady flow of new content to keep their platforms engaging, and developing high quality live games internally is extremely difficult. Because Evolution regularly delivers new experiences, operators integrate its products deeply into their offering and depend on future releases to stay competitive. Finally, innovation supports the company’s competitive moat. Competitors can copy individual games, but replicating a constant pipeline of successful releases requires creative talent, data insights and production capability developed over many years. By repeatedly introducing new concepts that increase engagement, Evolution widens the gap to rivals and ensures that growth can come not only from more markets but also from players spending more time on its platform.

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Valuation

Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators for free.

The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 56,57, which is from 2025. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 10%. Finbox expects EPS to grow by 9,7% a year in the next five years. Additionally, I have selected a projected future P/E ratio of 20, which is twice the growth rate. This decision is based on Evolution's historically higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Finally, our minimum acceptable rate of return has already been established at 15%. After performing the calculations, we determined the sticker price (also known as fair value or intrinsic value) to be SEK 725,38. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy Evolution at a price of SEK 362,69 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.

The second calculation is known as the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that a company owner (or stockholder) receives on the purchase price of the company essentially represents its return on investment. The minimum annual return should be at least 10%, which I calculate as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 13.577, and capital expenditures were 699. I attempted to analyze their annual report to calculate the percentage of capital expenditures allocated to maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 489 in our calculations. The tax provision was 1.994. We have 199,2 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (13.577 – 489 + 1.994) / 199,2 x 10 = SEK 757,13 in Ten Cap price.

The final calculation is called the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With Evolution's Free Cash Flow Per Share at SEK 64,64 and a growth rate of 10%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is SEK 813,14.

Conclusion

I believe Evolution is an intriguing company with strong management. The company has built its moat through scale and complexity. It has consistently achieved a high ROIC, and while the level over the past six years has been lower than in the early years and likely will not return to those extremes, it has still remained above 20% in recent years, a level that is expected to continue. Evolution is also expected to keep generating high free cash flow and strong cash flow margins, benefiting investors through buybacks and dividends. Cyberattacks and fraud are a risk because criminals can hijack live casino streams and rebroadcast them on illegal gambling sites, allowing betting to occur without the company receiving its revenue share, which both reduces income and increases security costs while potentially harming relationships with regulated partners. Regulatory risks are also important since revenue depends on licensed online gambling markets shaped by changing laws, taxes and restrictions in each country, where new rules can raise costs, slow expansion or push players toward unlicensed operators and reduce activity on the platform. Customer concentration adds risk because a significant share of revenue comes from a few large operators, making results sensitive to their performance and strategic decisions, meaning that reduced activity, renegotiated terms or a shift to another supplier could affect revenue and margins. The growth of the online casino market supports the investment case because Evolution earns a percentage of wagers across hundreds of operators and benefits directly as gambling moves online, growing alongside the market without needing to attract players itself. Investment in new studios also supports growth because each studio increases the number of live games available and allows existing operators to handle more player activity, while local studios are often required to enter regulated markets and are difficult for competitors to replicate. Product innovation further strengthens the case as regularly launching new and engaging game formats increases player activity and keeps operators dependent on the platform, allowing the company to grow not only through new markets but also through higher engagement. I believe Evolution is a high quality company and buying shares below the Ten Cap price of SEK 757 can be a good long term investment.

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