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Carlsberg: A Toast to Long-Term Gains

Opdateret: for 4 timer siden


The commercial beer industry started in the Middle Ages, and it is difficult to imagine that the beer industry will suddenly disappear. Thus, the beer industry could be a long-term “sleep well at night” investment for the cautious investor. Carlsberg is one of the largest breweries in the world and has a strong global presence. The question is, is now the right time to invest in Carlsberg? This is what I will investigate in this analysis.


This is not a financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and I only do these post in order to do my own analysis and elaborate about my decisions, especially for my copiers and followers. If you consider investing in any of the ideas I present, you should do your own research or contact a professional financial advisor, as all investing comes with a risk of losing money. You are also more than welcome to copy me.


Since attending the workshop with Phil Town, I have decided to make some changes to the layout of my analyses. I will perform additional calculations and also provide a brief explanation of why the company is significant to me. If you want to learn more about my company evaluation process, please visit the "MY STRATEGY" section on my website.


For full disclosure, I should start by mentioning that at the time of writing this analysis, I do not own any shares in Carlsberg. If you would like to see the stocks in my portfolio or copy my portfolio, you can do so on eToro, You can find instructions on how to do this here. I don't own any stocks in competitors of Carlsberg either. Thus, I have no personal stake in Carlsberg. If you want to purchase shares (or fractional shares) of Carlsberg, you can do so through eToro. eToro is a highly user-friendly platform that allows you to get started with investing with as little as $100.



The Business


Carlsberg is a Danish brewing company founded in 1847 by J.C. Jacobsen and headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark. It is one of the largest breweries in the world, known for producing a wide range of beers. Carlsberg's flagship beer is the Carlsberg lager, but the company also owns and operates over 140 other beer brands, including Tuborg, Kronenbourg 1664, and Grimbergen. Carlsberg also produces other alcoholic beverages such as Somersby. The company has a strong global presence and is recognized for its contributions to brewing science and technology, as well as its commitment to sustainability and corporate social responsibility. Carlsberg has divided its beer portfolio into two categories: mainstream core beers, which contribute 58% of volume, and premium beers, which contribute 20% of volume. The remaining volume consists of alcohol-free beer, beyond beer (Somersby and Garage), and soft drinks. Carlsberg holds the largest or second-largest market share in 20 markets, including Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Switzerland, France, Portugal, Western China, Laos, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, the Baltic states, Greece, Bulgaria, and Nepal. Carlsberg's largest market is Western Europe, contributing 51% of revenue, followed by Asia with 28% of revenue, and Central & Eastern Europe and India with 21% of revenue. Carlsberg has a moat through its beer brands, which are some of the largest in the markets where Carlsberg operates.


Management


Jacob Aarup-Andersen is the CEO of Carlsberg. He joined the company in September 2023 as the CEO. Prior to joining Carlsberg, Jacob Aarup-Andersen served as CEO of ISS, a global leader in facility management with 360.000 employees operating in 60 countries globally. Before ISS, Jacob Aarup-Andersen held executive leadership roles at Danske Bank and Danica Pension. Earlier in his career, he worked as an investment professional and banker at firms such as TPG-Axon Capital and Goldman Sachs. He is also a member of the Board of Directors of SEB Group and holds a master's degree in economics from the University of Copenhagen. Known for his extraordinary intelligence during his studies, he earned the nickname "Guld-Jacob," meaning Gold-Jacob. Although he is still new at Carlsberg, Jacob Aarup-Andersen is widely praised for his performance at ISS. During an earnings call, he emphasized his belief in the value of compounding earnings growth and guaranteed a strong focus on delivering positive earnings growth every year at Carlsberg. He also stated that Carlsberg is increasing its emphasis on growth to ensure it has an equal place alongside earnings or free cash flow from an incentive perspective. Jacob Aarup-Andersen has increased the long-term ambition for organic growth to a CAGR of 4% to 6%, up from the previous target of 3% to 5%. Even though Jacob Aarup-Andersen is new to his role at Carlsberg, his track record at ISS gives me confidence in his ability to lead Carlsberg moving forward.


The Numbers


The first metric to investigate is the return on invested capital (ROIC). Our criterion requires a 10-year history with all figures exceeding 10% annually. Carlsberg has had some underwhelming years where ROIC has been well below 10%. However, since 2018, it has been close to 10% or above, which is encouraging. Another positive sign is that Carlsberg has reached its highest ROIC in the past ten years in the last two years and managed to increase its ROIC from 2022 to 2023. Management has mentioned that over the next couple of years, Carlsberg's higher commercial investments will help rebuild the gross margin to pre-pandemic levels, positively affecting ROIC. In fact, management has stated that they aim to deliver sustainable long-term compounding earnings growth, attractive cash generation, and ROIC. Therefore, it seems like we can expect a higher ROIC in the future.



The following numbers represent the book value + dividend. In my previous format, this was referred to as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it in the future. As you are accustomed to seeing numbers in percentage form, I have decided to provide both the actual numbers and the year-over-year percentage growth. I don't have the growth rate from 2013 as Finbox only provides data for the past ten years. These numbers don't impress, as Carlsberg's equity has decreased in many years. However, the large drop in 2022 and 2023 is due to a presidential decree in Russia that temporarily transferred the management of the Baltika Breweries to a Russian federal agency for State Property Management. As a result, the investment in the Baltika Breweries was fully written down over 2022 and 2023.



Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins provide a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. It is not surprising that Carlsberg has delivered positive free cash flow in all years for the past decade. Carlsberg achieved its highest free cash flow in the past three years, which is encouraging. However, free cash flow decreased from 2022 to 2023. Management has mentioned that this decrease is due to negative currency impacts, a negative contribution from total working capital, and higher CapEx. For instance, free cash flow was impacted by the payment of a competition fine in Germany, which is not something that will happen every year. Therefore, free cash flow should increase in the future. Levered free cash flow also decreased in 2023 due to the same factors that affected free cash flow. The free cash flow yield is higher than the ten-year average, indicating that Carlsberg is trading at a good valuation, but we will revisit that later in the analysis.



Debt


Another important aspect to consider is debt. It is crucial to assess whether a business has a manageable level of debt that can be repaid within a period of three years, which is determined by dividing the total long-term debt by earnings. Upon analyzing Carlsberg's financials, it is evident that the company has 4,3 years of earnings in debt. This is above the three-year threshold, indicating that debt is something that needs to be monitored. However, I'm not overly concerned, as I don't think that a company with more than 150 years of history, like Carlsberg, is in danger of going bankrupt. Therefore, while the debt is higher than I would like, it wouldn't keep me from investing in Carlsberg.


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Risks


Based on my findings so far, I believe that Carlsberg is an intriguing company. However, no investment is without risk, and Carlsberg also faces its fair share of challenges. One risk is macroeconomic factors. Across the regions that Carlsberg operates in, the macroeconomic environment is challenged by wars and an increased level of global geopolitical tensions. The wider impact of these challenges may be economic instability, inflation, and recession, which all pose a real risk to consumer sentiment and disposable incomes, possibly impacting beer markets negatively. Management has mentioned that volume was down in 2023, especially in Western Europe and Eastern & Central Europe, where volumes were impacted by a soft consumer sentiment. They also noted that they expect these macroeconomic factors to continue in 2024 and possibly have a substantial impact on Carlsberg's business, including the Chinese consumer sentiment and the macroeconomic situation in Southeast Asia. It is possible that these issues will continue to negatively impact consumers. Additionally, the potential impact from higher interest rates on European consumers and the unpredictable and terrible war in Ukraine could affect European markets.


Another risk is laws and regulations. Legal and regulatory compliance risks include competition law and data protection compliance (GDPR), as well as non-compliance with trade sanctions and anti-bribery & corruption regulations. Failure to comply with regulations and group policies may lead to fines, claims, and damage to brand and reputation. Carlsberg mentions that in recent years, the company has experienced competition-law dawn raids in a few jurisdictions. Non-compliance with competition law is a growing risk due to increased regulatory enforcement and the availability of leniency or a reduction in fines for those who proactively report breaches to the authorities. If Carlsberg incurs fines, such as the competition fine in Germany, it can affect the profitability of Carlsberg, as seen in 2023, where the fine in Germany impacted free cash flow.


Competition in the beverage industry is expanding, and the market is becoming more fragmented, complex, and sophisticated as consumer preferences and tastes evolve. Competition may divert consumers and customers from Carlsberg's products. Intense competition in different markets could lead Carlsberg to lower prices, boost capital investment, and increase marketing and other expenses, making it difficult for Carlsberg to raise prices to offset higher costs. Consequently, this could result in Carlsberg reducing profit margins or losing market share. Any of the aforementioned factors could have a significant negative impact on Carlsberg's business, financial status, and operational outcomes. Innovation faces inherent risks, and the new products Carlsberg introduces may not be successful, while competitors may be able to respond more quickly than Carlsberg can to emerging trends.


Reasons to invest


There are numerous reasons to consider investing in Carlsberg. One compelling factor is Carlsberg's focus on premiumization. Management has emphasized that premiumization remains a key growth engine for the company. Although Carlsberg has attractive premium brands and portfolios, the company is currently under-indexed in premium across most markets, with premium accounting for only 20% of Carlsberg's total volumes and 24% of its beer volumes. To address this, Carlsberg plans to allocate a significant portion of increased marketing investments to premium brands and redirect internal resources to support premium growth. Management believes that premiumization is an important long-term value driver for the company. They are encouraged by the fact that the premium brand portfolio outperformed the core beer portfolio in 2023. This outperformance is seen as a testament to the strength of Carlsberg's brands and the strategic decision to focus more on premium products. Accelerating premium growth is expected to be beneficial for investors as it will position Carlsberg in a virtuous circle of revenue growth and margin improvement, enabling further growth investments.


Beyond beer and non-alcoholic beer represent promising growth areas for Carlsberg. Although the beyond beer category currently accounts for only 2% of total volumes, management believes they can accelerate growth in this segment by leveraging the Somersby and Garage brands. They plan to scale these brands faster through increased investments in brand building, innovation, footprint expansion, and execution. Additionally, management is exploring opportunities to expand Carlsberg's beyond beer portfolio through partnerships and local brand extensions. They are also open to potentially adding more beyond beer brands to Carlsberg's portfolio through acquisitions. Regarding non-alcoholic beer, management has noted good momentum for the alcohol-free category in many European markets. They believe that alcohol-free brews will play an increasingly important role in Carlsberg's portfolio in the coming years. Management sees this as a generational trend and considers it a very structural growth driver for Carlsberg in the future.


Expanding in Asia remains a key long-term volume and value growth driver for Carlsberg. The company's primary growth markets in the region are China, Vietnam, and India. In China, Carlsberg aims to continue its growth journey through premiumization in its strongholds in Western China and its big city approach. Management highlighted their strong portfolio of local and international premium brands in China and noted that while Carlsberg's market share in the premium segment is significantly above its average national market share, there are still substantial growth opportunities for premium brands in China. In Vietnam, Carlsberg is committed to executing its multiyear transformation strategy. The company is accelerating its growth momentum through increased investments in and execution for key brands, regions, and capabilities. Management has expressed confidence in the opportunities in India as well, where they have seen good growth for Carlsberg and Tuborg, leading to high single-digit volume growth.


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Valuation


Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators.


The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 51, which is from 2023. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 8%. Finbox expects EPS to grow by 7,7% a year in the next five years. Additionally, I have selected a projected future P/E ratio of 16, which is twice the growth rate. This decision is based on Carlsberg's historically higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Finally, our minimum acceptable rate of return has already been established at 15%. After performing the calculations, we determined the sticker price (also known as fair value or intrinsic value) to be DKK 435,46. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy Carlsberg at a price of DKK 217,73 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.


The second calculation is known as the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that a company owner (or stockholder) receives on the purchase price of the company essentially represents its return on investment. The minimum annual return should be at least 10%, which I calculate as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 13.138, and capital expenditures were 4.243. I attempted to analyze their annual report to calculate the percentage of capital expenditures allocated to maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 2.970 in our calculations. The tax provision was 1.859. We have 134,1 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (13.138 – 2.970 + 1.859) / 134,1 x 10 = DKK 896,87 in Ten Cap price.


The final calculation is called the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With Carlsberg's Free Cash Flow Per Share at DKK 66,32 and a growth rate of 8%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is DKK 761,85.


Conclusion


I believe that Carlsberg is an intriguing company with good management. Carlsberg has a moat through its various brands, which are popular in key markets. Although Carlsberg hasn't always delivered a high ROIC, it has achieved its highest ROIC in the past ten years in 2022 and 2023, and management is focused on increasing ROIC, which is encouraging. Carlsberg is facing some macroeconomic challenges, resulting in declining volume. Management believes these challenges will continue in 2024, but eventually, macroeconomic conditions will improve. Laws and regulations also pose a risk for Carlsberg, exemplified by a fine in 2023 that affected free cash flow. Carlsberg has mentioned that non-compliance with competition law is a growing risk due to increased regulatory enforcement and the availability of leniency or a reduction in fines for those who proactively report breaches to the authorities, meaning this risk will persist. Carlsberg experienced a significant setback when the Russian government issued a presidential decree temporarily transferring the management of Carlsberg's Russian business, Baltika Breweries, to the Russian Federal Agency for State Property Management, which resulted in Carlsberg eventually having to write down the investment. While this is hopefully an isolated incident, Carlsberg operates in many different jurisdictions, adding to its risk profile. Competition in the beverage industry is expanding, and the market is becoming more fragmented, complex, and sophisticated as consumer preferences and tastes evolve, posing a risk for Carlsberg. However, Carlsberg should become more profitable as it focuses on premiumization, with growth in the premium portfolio expected to be margin accretive. Carlsberg also has plenty of room to grow in its beyond beer and non-alcoholic beer markets. The company is focusing on growing Somersby and Garage, while non-alcoholic beers are seen as a generational trend and a very structural growth driver for Carlsberg. Finally, Carlsberg has a clear strategy to grow in its three largest Asian markets, which should lead to long-term benefits for the company. Although I am not currently invested in the beer sector, if I were to invest in the industry, I believe Carlsberg would be a good choice if shares could be bought below the Ten Cap price of DKK 896.


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