Burberry: Investing in British Heritage and Global Appeal

Burberry is one of the most iconic names in British fashion, known for its heritage trench coats, signature check pattern, and strong presence in the global luxury market. The brand combines historical depth with modern relevance, aiming to balance exclusivity with broader appeal. With the Burberry Forward strategy now underway, the company is refocusing on core categories like outerwear and scarves, streamlining operations, and revamping its store and product experience to reignite growth. The question is: Can this luxury house deliver long-term value, and does it deserve a place in your portfolio?

This is not a financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and I only do these post in order to do my own analysis and elaborate about my decisions, especially for my copiers and followers. If you consider investing in any of the ideas I present, you should do your own research or contact a professional financial advisor, as all investing comes with a risk of losing money. You are also more than welcome to copy me. 

For full disclosure, I should mention that I do not own any shares in Burberry at the time of writing this analysis. If you would like to copy or view my portfolio, you can find instructions on how to do so here. If you want to purchase shares or fractional shares of Burberry, you can do so through eToro. eToro is a highly user-friendly platform that allows you to get started on investing with as little as $50.

The Business

Burberry Group is a British luxury fashion house established in 1856 by Thomas Burberry. Known for its trench coats, distinctive check pattern, and the Equestrian Knight Design, the brand has become synonymous with British craftsmanship and innovation. Headquartered in London, Burberry positions itself as a symbol of "Modern British Luxury," blending heritage with contemporary design and a commitment to sustainability. The company offers a broad range of products, including outerwear, ready-to-wear clothing for men, women, and children, leather goods, footwear, accessories, and licensed items such as fragrances and eyewear. Its operations span more than 140 countries and territories through a combination of directly operated retail stores, e-commerce, wholesale channels, and licensing partnerships. With over 400 own retail stores globally, Burberry maintains strong control over its brand presentation and customer experience. Burberry’s competitive strengths stem primarily from its brand heritage and global recognition. It invented gabardine fabric in 1879 and pioneered the trench coat, both of which helped cement its role in fashion history. Its identity is deeply tied to British culture, offering a point of differentiation in a luxury landscape largely dominated by French and Italian houses. The iconic Burberry check, originally used as a lining in the 1920s, has become a global symbol of the brand. The company’s vertically integrated model supports product quality and authenticity. Trench coats are woven and assembled in Yorkshire, cashmere scarves are made in Scotland, and Burberry operates leather goods and technical outerwear centers of excellence in Italy. This structure allows for a high level of quality control and helps reinforce the brand’s commitment to craftsmanship and sustainability. Burberry has also been a pioneer in digital innovation among luxury brands, being one of the first to livestream runway shows and actively engage on social media. Its omnichannel capabilities enable a seamless shopping experience across physical and digital touchpoints. This early investment in digital has positioned the brand well with younger, digitally native consumers. Although Burberry is smaller in scale than luxury giants like LVMH or Kering, it benefits from operating a single brand, allowing focused management attention and brand stewardship. Burberry’s moat lies in its blend of iconic products, historical depth, and strong brand identity rooted in Britishness. Its vertically integrated operations, direct-to-consumer network, and digital capabilities support its long-term competitiveness.

Management

Joshua Schulman serves as the CEO of Burberry, a role he assumed in July 2024. He brings more than 30 years of experience in global luxury, fashion, and retail, with a strong track record of leading brand transformations and driving profitable growth across major international markets. Joshua Schulman was appointed to lead Burberry for his deep expertise in brand building, merchandising, and strategic repositioning, particularly in the accessible luxury segment. Before joining Burberry, Joshua Schulman served as CEO of Michael Kors and as Brand President and CEO of Coach, where he played a central role in revitalizing the brand’s image and financial performance. Under his leadership, Coach saw significant improvements in both profitability and brand equity, showcasing his ability to execute large-scale transformations while preserving a brand’s heritage. Prior to that, Joshua Schulman held senior leadership roles at Jimmy Choo and Bergdorf Goodman. Earlier in his career, Joshua Schulman spent eight years at Gucci Group, including as Executive Vice President of Yves Saint Laurent. His background also includes experience at Kenneth Cole New York and Gap Inc. Joshua Schulman’s appointment at Burberry came after a two-year period away from executive roles following his departure from Capri Holdings in March 2022. While some observers have questioned this gap and noted that much of his experience is in the accessible luxury segment, others see Joshua Schulman’s focus on the customer and strong commercial background as strengths he can bring to Burberry. His extensive experience in retail operations, merchandising, and digital strategy across the United States, Europe, and Asia gives him a solid foundation to lead in today’s competitive luxury market. Joshua Schulman is known for his hands-on leadership style and strong brand vision, with a focus on elevating customer experience and streamlining product assortments. As CEO of Burberry, Joshua Schulman shares the Board’s ambition to unlock the brand’s full potential by building on its rich British heritage and strengthening its global relevance. Early organizational changes under his leadership, including efforts to further align creative and commercial teams, signal a push toward greater agility and sharper brand execution. While it remains early in his tenure, Joshua Schulman’s blend of operational expertise, strategic clarity, and leadership in brand turnarounds gives him a strong foundation to steer Burberry through its next phase of growth.

The Numbers

The first number we will look into is the return on invested capital, also known as ROIC. We want to see a 10-year history, with all numbers exceeding 10% in each year. Burberry has historically achieved a high return on invested capital because of several important factors. First, the company has strong brand equity and pricing power. Its iconic products like the trench coat and check pattern allow Burberry to charge premium prices. This helps keep profit margins high and reduces the need for heavy spending on advertising, especially compared to newer or less recognizable brands. Second, Burberry runs a relatively capital-efficient business. It owns key production facilities, such as its trench coat factory in Yorkshire, which helps protect product quality and brand heritage. But it does not own every part of the manufacturing process, and many of its retail stores are leased instead of owned. This helps keep overall capital requirements lower. Third, Burberry focuses on a single brand. Unlike luxury groups that manage several different brands, Burberry puts all its attention and investment into one name. This makes it easier to use resources efficiently and build a consistent global brand image. The drop in Burberry’s ROIC in fiscal year 2025 likely came from a mix of lower profits and higher investment. The company faced weaker demand in key markets like China and the US, which hurt sales and pressured profit margins. At the same time, Burberry was investing more in areas like store refurbishments, digital upgrades, inventory, and new product development as part of its transformation under Joshua Schulman. These investments increased the amount of capital tied up in the business, even though the returns from them may not have shown up yet. In addition, currency movements may have reduced reported profits without affecting the size of the capital base, making ROIC look worse than it actually is. There may also have been one-time costs, such as restructuring charges or inventory write-downs, that dragged down operating profit in the short term. All of these factors combined would cause ROIC to fall, even if the long-term strategy remains intact. The drop in Burberry’s ROIC isn’t necessarily a major concern, but it depends on what happens next. Given that 2025 was a year of weak demand and higher investment under a new CEO, the decline likely reflects temporary factors. If profitability recovers and those investments start to pay off, ROIC should improve. However, if returns stay low or capital use becomes less efficient, it could point to deeper issues. For now, it’s something to watch, but not a red flag on its own.

The next numbers are the book value + dividend. In my old format this was known as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used to use in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it moving forward. As you are used to see the numbers in percentage, I have decided to share both the numbers and the percentage growth year over year. To put it simply, equity is the part of the company that belongs to its shareholders – like the portion of a house you truly own after paying off part of the mortgage. Growing equity over time means the company is becoming more valuable for its owners. So, when we track book value plus dividends, we’re essentially looking at how much value is being built for shareholders year after year. Equity has gone up and down over the past ten years because of changes in profits, share buybacks, currency movements, and occasional restructuring costs. In the last three years, it has declined every year, reaching its lowest point in more than a decade in fiscal year 2025. The decline is mostly the result of weaker profits and one-time charges related to its ongoing turnaround. The company faced lower demand in key markets like China and the US, and also recorded restructuring costs and asset write-downs, which reduced retained earnings and pushed equity lower. Whether this is a concern depends on what happens next. Burberry still has access to funding and hasn’t taken on excessive debt, so the decline in equity isn’t an immediate red flag. But if profits don’t recover and equity keeps falling, it could limit the company’s ability to invest or respond to future challenges. For now, it reflects a tough year and a business in transition.

Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins provide a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. Free cash flow at Burberry has declined significantly in recent years, reaching its lowest level since 2016 in fiscal year 2025. This drop is mainly due to a sharp fall in profits as the company faced weaker demand, especially in key markets like China and the US. Lower earnings naturally reduced the cash generated from operations. Despite this, free cash flow held steady compared to the previous year, and the free cash flow margin actually improved slightly. This happened because Burberry took several steps to protect its cash position. It reduced capital spending, managed inventory more tightly, and delayed certain investments while it focused on turning the business around. These actions helped offset some of the impact from lower profits. Burberry uses its free cash flow based on a clear set of priorities. First, it reinvests in the business through store refurbishments, digital upgrades, and supply chain improvements. Second, when possible, it returns capital to shareholders through dividends or share buybacks, though dividends were suspended in fiscal year 2025. Third, it considers acquisitions that could support long-term growth, although these are expected to be infrequent. Finally, it aims to keep a strong balance sheet and maintain its credit rating. The recent drop in free cash flow highlights the tough conditions Burberry is facing. The company is managing its cash carefully by reducing spending and keeping tighter control over things like inventory, but a lasting improvement will depend on whether its turnaround efforts can boost sales and bring profits back up. . Free cash flow yield is above 6%, which indicates that the shares are trading at an attractive valuation. However, we will revisit valuation later in the analysis.

Debt

Another important aspect to consider is debt. It’s essential to assess whether a business carries a manageable level of debt that could, in theory, be repaid within three years using its earnings. This is typically calculated by dividing total long-term debt by annual earnings. However, since Burberry reported negative earnings in fiscal year 2025, this method doesn’t apply directly for that year. Instead, we can look at Burberry’s financial history to get a more accurate picture of its overall risk. Using Burberry’s earnings from fiscal year 2024, the company had the equivalent of 1,13 years of earnings in long-term debt, well below the three-year threshold. This shows that Burberry’s debt level is well within a comfortable range and doesn’t raise any major concerns from an investor’s point of view. The company has also kept its long-term debt fairly steady over the years, which suggests it manages borrowing responsibly. In fiscal year 2025, Burberry issued a £450 million bond to strengthen its financial position and make sure it had enough flexibility during a difficult year. While this temporarily increased the amount of debt, the company still ended the year with a low net debt level and says it has enough flexibility to manage through the current challenges. Overall, Burberry seems to be handling its debt in a careful and sensible way.

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Risks

Macroeconomic conditions are a risk for Burberry. As a luxury brand, Burberry relies on consumers having the financial confidence and disposable income to spend on non-essential items. When the economy weakens, whether through inflation, rising interest rates, or slowing growth, people often shift their spending away from luxury goods toward more practical purchases. This behavior has already impacted Burberry in key markets like the United States and China, where demand recently fell short of expectations. In Europe, Burberry also depends heavily on tourism. A slowdown in travel from regions like China and the U.S. reduces foot traffic in major shopping destinations, leading to lower sales. The luxury market in general saw a rare contraction in 2024, as high prices and economic uncertainty pushed some customers, especially younger and more aspirational buyers, toward more value-oriented brands. This backdrop of weaker demand and shifting consumer habits has created a more difficult environment for Burberry to grow. In fact, the company entered fiscal year 2025 with falling sales, lower profitability, and even suspended its dividend to preserve cash and focus on turning the business around. Adding to the pressure, Burberry is also in the early stages of a business transformation. That makes macroeconomic challenges even harder to navigate, especially when policy decisions or rising costs (such as in the UK) directly affect operations. The wholesale channel, once a steady revenue stream, is also under strain due to long-term changes in the sector and store closures. In short, Burberry’s performance is closely tied to global economic conditions. Any further weakness in consumer confidence, travel, or discretionary spending, particularly in its biggest markets, could delay its turnaround and hurt future growth.

Brand reputation risk is a significant concern for Burberry. As a luxury brand, Burberry’s value is closely tied to how it is perceived, by customers, investors, and the broader fashion world. Its long-standing image is built on exclusivity, British craftsmanship, and high-quality design. However, recent developments suggest that this carefully built image is at risk of being diluted. In recent years, Burberry has made efforts to boost accessibility, such as expanding entry-level price points and increasing the use of outlet stores to manage excess inventory. While these moves may help drive short-term sales or clear unsold stock, they come with a downside: they can erode the brand’s luxury positioning. Luxury brands rely on scarcity, not availability. If Burberry becomes too visible or too affordable, especially through frequent discounting or outlet exposure, consumers may begin to associate it with value rather than exclusivity. Over time, this can damage the brand’s ability to command premium pricing and reduce the appeal for high-end customers who expect a more exclusive experience. Burberry has also acknowledged that it suffered from recent “product missteps” and “excessive price hikes” that pushed away some of its core customers. These kinds of miscalculations, whether in design, pricing, or brand messaging, can quickly weaken consumer trust and loyalty, particularly in a market where perception is everything. Once a luxury brand loses its sense of desirability or uniqueness, it can be difficult and expensive to rebuild. Beyond pricing and product strategy, Burberry also faces broader reputational risks. Any negative media coverage, ethical missteps, or failure to align with cultural or social expectations, whether involving the brand itself or its suppliers, could damage its image. The company operates in a global spotlight, where misjudgments in marketing, design, or public messaging can quickly lead to backlash.

Counterfeiting is a serious and ongoing risk for Burberry. As a luxury brand built on heritage, craftsmanship, and exclusivity, Burberry’s success depends on consumers believing they are buying something authentic and special. The rise of counterfeit goods directly threatens this perception. With advances in manufacturing, counterfeiters are now producing fake Burberry products that are often difficult to distinguish from the real thing. These items mimic Burberry’s logos, materials, and designs with increasing accuracy, making it easier for consumers, especially those shopping online or through informal channels, to be misled. Each counterfeit sale not only represents lost revenue for Burberry but also weakens the brand’s ability to maintain its premium positioning. The impact goes beyond financial loss. When fake Burberry products become widespread, it dilutes the brand’s exclusivity. If consumers regularly see fake versions of Burberry bags or trench coats in the market, or on social media platforms like TikTok, they may start to associate the brand with mass availability rather than luxury. This shift in perception can erode Burberry’s appeal, especially among high-end customers who value authenticity and scarcity. There’s also a growing generational risk. Some younger consumers may prioritize aesthetics over authenticity and knowingly choose counterfeit versions of luxury products. As these attitudes spread, especially through influencer content or online resale platforms, it becomes harder for Burberry to preserve its status as a symbol of quality and distinction. Burberry has responded to this challenge by investing in brand protection efforts, including legal actions, partnerships with customs authorities, and efforts to destroy unsold inventory to prevent it from leaking into grey or counterfeit markets. However, the global scale of the counterfeit industry, worth hundreds of billions of dollars annually, means the threat remains persistent and difficult to fully eliminate.

Reasons to invest

Burberry Forward is a reason to invest in Burberry because it represents a clear and focused plan to reignite the brand, rebuild growth, and create long-term value. Announced in November 2024, the strategy is centered around restoring Burberry’s identity as a timeless British luxury brand, re-establishing its emotional connection with consumers, and improving its operational performance. Early signs suggest the plan is starting to work. After a difficult first half, the second half of fiscal year 2025 showed meaningful progress: comparable retail sales improved from a 20% decline to just 5%, and the company returned to profitability. Management credits this momentum to the early impact of Burberry Forward, especially the changes in brand storytelling, marketing, and customer experience. One of the key goals of Burberry Forward is to rebuild brand desirability. The company has shifted its brand expression to one that clearly celebrates British heritage and authenticity, which helps it stand out in a luxury market dominated by French and Italian names. This renewed focus on Burberry’s origins is beginning to resonate. Measures of brand sentiment, including brand love and brand affinity, reached their highest levels in years by the end of fiscal 2025. The strategy also includes a strong focus on improving profitability. Burberry has taken a fresh look at how the company is structured and where money is being spent. As part of this, it is simplifying its regional operations, cutting out duplication, and speeding up decision-making. These changes are expected to unlock around £100 million in annual savings by fiscal year 2027. While these decisions involve one-off restructuring costs, they’re designed to make the business leaner and more efficient over the long term. Burberry Forward is still in its early stages, and much of the product and store transformation has yet to reach full scale. But the improving trends in sales, the strengthening brand perception, and the clear leadership vision suggest that the company is on a more solid path.

Burberry’s product portfolio is a reason to invest because it reflects a thoughtful transformation that blends the brand’s British heritage with modern luxury appeal, while laying the groundwork for long-term growth across multiple categories. Under the Burberry Forward strategy, the company has taken decisive action to refocus on what it does best, outerwear and scarves, while building momentum in adjacent areas like ready-to-wear, leather goods, and footwear. These categories are now being developed in a more integrated way, with both runway and commercial collections sharing a unified design language and brand expression.  One of the most meaningful changes has been the introduction of a more disciplined pricing architecture across product lines, with a “good, better, best” strategy that allows Burberry to remain aspirational while also broadening its appeal. The company is also taking a more balanced approach to branding, offering a mix of bold and subtle expressions of the Burberry Check and other iconic signifiers, which helps reach different luxury customer segments without compromising the brand’s exclusivity. These changes are already showing early signs of success, including improved sell-through rates, stronger customer response, and the return of organic demand for key items. What sets Burberry apart is its ability to anchor these improvements in a clear brand narrative, Timeless British Luxury, that is consistent across marketing, design, and retail execution. By reconnecting with its origins while evolving to meet today’s consumer expectations, Burberry is building a product portfolio that is not only more coherent and commercially effective, but also better positioned to support sustainable growth in a competitive global luxury market.

Improving distribution is a reason to invest in Burberry because it plays a central role in unlocking growth, strengthening brand consistency, and enhancing customer experience across channels. Burberry is aligning its retail, wholesale, and digital presence with its revitalized product and customer strategy, ensuring that its most iconic categories, such as outerwear and scarves, are at the heart of the brand experience. In physical stores, the company is investing in productivity and profitability through initiatives like the rollout of 200 scarf bars and new trench coat destinations, designed to showcase its heritage products more prominently and improve conversion. Visual merchandising has also been revamped to create more immersive, inspirational displays that encourage customers to build full wardrobes, ultimately driving higher basket sizes and sales densities. Meanwhile, the wholesale channel is being carefully refined to focus on strategic, high-visibility accounts like Selfridges and Isetan, where Burberry can tell its brand story effectively and showcase sustainability initiatives such as ReBurberry. In the outlet segment, advanced analytics are being used to improve profitability and reduce dependence on discounting. Digital has also become a bright spot, with Burberry.com returning to growth after three years of decline. The online experience has been significantly upgraded through better styling, more commercial product assortments, and innovative campaigns, including interactive features like Snapchat filters and partnerships with weather apps in China, to make shopping both aspirational and relevant. Flagship stores in key luxury markets, such as New York, Paris, Singapore, and Beijing, are being opened or refurbished to reflect Burberry’s Timeless British Luxury aesthetic and to deliver premium experiences that support higher spending per visit. By taking a customer-centric, omni-channel approach to distribution, Burberry is not only reinforcing its brand equity but also improving its operational efficiency and sales productivity, laying a strong foundation for sustainable, profitable growth.

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Valuation

Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators for free.

The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of £0,74 from fiscal year 2024, as Burberry reported a negative EPS in fiscal year 2025. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 15%. Finbox expects EPS to grow by 65,5% a year in the next five years,  but 15% is the highest rate I ever use.. Additionally, I have selected a projected future P/E ratio of 30, which is twice the growth rate. This decision is based on the Burberry's historically higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Finally, our minimum acceptable rate of return has already been established at 15%. After performing the calculations, we determined the sticker price (also known as fair value or intrinsic value) to be £22,20. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy Burberry at a price of £11,10 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.

The second calculation is known as the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that a company owner (or stockholder) receives on the purchase price of the company essentially represents its return on investment. The minimum annual return should be at least 10%, which I calculate as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 429, and capital expenditures were 122. I attempted to analyze their annual report to calculate the percentage of capital expenditures allocated to maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 85 in our calculations. The tax provision was 9. We have 357,5 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (429 – 85 + 9) / 357,5 x 10 = £9,87 in Ten Cap price.

The final calculation is called the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With Burberry's Free Cash Flow Per Share at £0,86 and a growth rate of 15%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is £13,58.

Conclusion

I believe Burberry is an interesting company with a good management. It has built a moat through its iconic products, strong brand identity, and rich heritage. Although ROIC was low in fiscal year 2025, it has historically been above 10 percent. Free cash flow also reached a nine-year low, reflecting weaker demand and the cost of turning the business around. Macroeconomic conditions are a risk for Burberry because the brand depends on consumer confidence and discretionary spending, which usually decline during periods of inflation, rising interest rates, or slower economic growth. Sales have already come under pressure in key markets like the United States and China, while reduced tourism has hurt performance in Europe. These challenges make the turnaround more difficult in the current environment. Brand reputation is another key risk. Burberry’s value depends on being seen as exclusive and high-quality, and efforts to boost short-term sales through discounting or outlet expansion could weaken that image over time. If the brand loses its luxury appeal, it may struggle to maintain pricing power or customer loyalty. Counterfeiting is also a concern. The rise of high-quality fake products, especially online, makes it harder for customers to trust what they are buying and could erode the brand’s sense of exclusivity. On the positive side, the Burberry Forward strategy is a reason to invest. It represents a reset aimed at rebuilding brand desirability, improving operations, and returning to long-term growth. Early signs are promising. Sales trends improved in the second half of the year, brand sentiment strengthened, and the company returned to profitability. Burberry’s product portfolio is another strength. The brand is doubling down on core categories like outerwear and scarves while expanding into adjacent areas such as ready-to-wear, leather goods, and footwear with a more unified brand expression and pricing strategy. These changes are already delivering better customer response and organic demand. Improving distribution also supports the investment case. Burberry is upgrading stores, enhancing the online experience, and focusing on high-impact wholesale relationships to showcase its most iconic products more effectively. These efforts aim to increase sales productivity and support long-term profitability. While I think there are reasons to be optimistic about Burberry’s future, I believe there are more compelling opportunities elsewhere in the sector, so I have decided not to invest at this time.

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