Rémy Cointreau owns some of the most well-known brands in spirits. The company operates in spirits categories, mainly cognac, which has grown faster than the general spirits market. Furthermore, the value per case of cognac is the highest among all spirits. Hence, if one is interested in investing in spirits, Rémy Cointreau may be a good option. This is what I'm going to investigate in this analysis.
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The Business
Rémy Cointreau, a French family-owned group, is a distinguished player in the premium spirits industry, known for its extensive heritage dating back to 1724. Formed through the 1990 merger of Rémy Martin and Cointreau, the company produces and distributes a diverse range of high-quality liqueurs and spirits. Operating through three segments—Cognac, Liqueurs & Spirits, and Partner Brands—Rémy Cointreau’s portfolio includes iconic brands such as Rémy Martin and Louis XIII cognacs, Cointreau liqueur, Mount Gay rum, St-Rémy brandy, The Botanist gin, and Bruichladdich single malt whisky. The company’s revenues are heavily influenced by cognac, which comprises 65% of sales, followed by liqueurs and spirits (33%) and partner brands (2%). Geographically, sales are spread across key regions: 40% from Asia-Pacific, 38% from the Americas, and 22% from Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Rémy Martin, known for high-quality cognacs sourced exclusively from the Grande and Petite Champagne crus, holds a 12,2% market share in the cognac industry. The Liqueurs & Spirits division includes a variety of internationally recognized brands produced in their respective countries of origin, showcasing artisanal and generational expertise. Partner Brands contribute minimally to overall sales. The Andromède family controls approximately 59% of the company. Rémy Cointreau's moat lies in its brands. With iconic names like Rémy Martin and Louis XIII cognacs, Cointreau liqueur, and Mount Gay rum, the company benefits from high consumer loyalty and the ability to command premium pricing.
Management
Éric Vallat is the CEO of Rémy Cointreau. He joined the company as CEO in 2019, having previously been part of the company from 2014 to 2018, where he served as CEO of the house of Rémy Martin and President of Mount Gay Rum. From 2018 to 2019, he was Head of Fashion and Accessories Maisons at Richemont. Prior to joining Rémy Cointreau in 2014, he held various positions at Louis Vuitton and EPI Group. He was chosen as CEO because he successfully ran the house of Rémy Martin for four years. Due to his experience in some of the largest luxury companies in the world, he has built an in-depth knowledge of the luxury sector and French craftsmanship. His focus is on premiumization, with a strategy that embraces a retail approach to elevate the customer experience. Cartier achieved a similar transformation for jewelry in the 1960s by progressively shifting its wholesale business towards a retail model. While Rémy Cointreau will continue wholesale operations, they will place a much higher focus on retail under his leadership. Since Éric Vallat became CEO, Rémy Cointreau has opened stores on fashion floors next to Louis Vuitton, catering to their shared clientele. We don’t have extensive information on Éric Vallat, but I appreciate his experience and his focus on premiumization. I’m confident in his ability to lead Rémy Cointreau moving forward.
The Numbers
The first metric to investigate is return on invested capital (ROIC). Our criterion requires a 10-year history with all figures exceeding 10% annually. Rémy Cointreau has underperformed in this area, as ROIC has only surpassed 10% in two out of the past ten years. It is encouraging that ROIC was above 10% in both fiscal year 2022 and fiscal year 2023. Unfortunately, ROIC dropped below 10% in fiscal year 2024. Management has mentioned that they have prioritized a strategic increase in capital employed—primarily through long-term investments in aging inventory and CapEx, especially in the Cognac division. This increased capital base has temporarily diluted both ROCE and ROIC, as these investments are not yet contributing to profits. However, as the aged inventories mature and can be sold at premium prices, ROIC is expected to recover and likely improve. Hence, I'm not overly concerned about ROIC dropping below 10% in fiscal year 2024. That said, the overall numbers are underwhelming, as Rémy Cointreau did not achieve a ROIC above 10% from 2015 to 2021.
The following numbers represent the book value + dividend. In my previous format, this was referred to as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it in the future. As you are accustomed to seeing numbers in percentage form, I have decided to provide both the actual numbers and the year-over-year percentage growth. I don't have the growth rate from 2013 as Finbox only provides data for the past ten years. Rémy Cointreau has consistently increased its equity annually, with the exception of fiscal year 2020, which was impacted by the pandemic. Notably, the company achieved its highest equity level in fiscal year 2024, indicating a positive trend that is expected to continue.
Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins provide a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. It's not surprising that Rémy Cointreau has delivered positive free cash flow every year over the past decade. However, free cash flow declined in fiscal year 2024, reaching its lowest level since 2019. The reason for this decline is that Rémy Cointreau experienced a sales slowdown, particularly in its Cognac division, and continued to invest heavily in aging inventory, which also impacted free cash flow. Management has indicated that they expect free cash flow to increase in fiscal year 2025. The low free cash flow has also affected the levered free cash flow margin, which is at its lowest point since 2019. The low free cash flow yield suggests that the shares are trading at a premium, but this is something we will revisit later in the analysis.
Debt
Another important factor to consider is debt. It's crucial to assess whether a business can repay its debt within three years, calculated by dividing total long-term debt by earnings. Rémy Cointreau has 2,6 years of earnings in debt, which is below the three-year threshold. Hence, debt is not a concern for me if I were to invest in the company.
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Risks
Based on my findings, I believe Rémy Cointreau is an intriguing company. However, no investment is without risk, and Rémy Cointreau faces its share of challenges. One key risk is competition. Competition is a significant risk for Rémy Cointreau due to several dynamics within the spirits market. The industry is crowded with numerous international and local brands, creating intense competition, and a trend toward consolidation is increasing the pressure. As competitors merge or expand, they gain economies of scale and a stronger market presence, which could marginalize Rémy Cointreau. This relative lack of size could reduce its negotiating power with distributors and suppliers, limiting its visibility and access in key markets. Additionally, consolidation in the distribution sector means larger distributors can negotiate more aggressively, potentially forcing Rémy Cointreau to accept less favorable terms. This could include lower prices for its products or, in some cases, even the delisting of its products from major distributors, limiting its reach and impacting revenues. Furthermore, shifting consumer preferences present another competitive risk, particularly in markets like the U.S., where demand for Ready-to-Drink (RTD) beverages has grown rapidly. As Rémy Cointreau does not offer RTD products, it risks losing market share to competitors catering to this trend, further highlighting the competitive challenges it faces.
Macroeconomic factors represent a significant risk for Rémy Cointreau due to various challenges affecting global consumption and financial stability. Following the COVID period, the company has faced a sharp “normalization” of consumption patterns, with demand that previously surged now cooling, particularly in the U.S. This shift has impacted Cognac sales, with market share losses as customers focus on value brands in response to inflation. High inflation is eroding consumers’ purchasing power, leading to increased price sensitivity and a more promotional market environment. Additionally, high interest rates are impacting the company’s distribution network, as distributors face increased financing costs and have reduced their inventories to minimize these expenses. This inventory destocking further pressures Rémy Cointreau’s sales and profitability, as products sit longer in supply channels before reaching end consumers. The company also faces foreign exchange risks because a majority of its sales are made in non-euro currencies, while production costs are primarily euro-based. Geopolitical instability adds another layer of risk. With significant exposure to international markets, Rémy Cointreau is vulnerable to trade tensions, protectionist policies, and conflicts, especially among major economies like the U.S., China, and the EU.
Emerging headwinds pose a substantial risk for Rémy Cointreau, as key industry trends challenge its traditional business model. The rise of GLP-1 drugs, initially developed for diabetes and weight loss, could reduce alcohol cravings, leading to a decline in consumption. Additionally, increasing cannabis use, especially among younger generations like Gen Z, presents a competing alternative to alcohol. Gen Z, in particular, is twice as likely to use cannabis and is drinking less alcohol overall. Moreover, Gen Z's preference for health-conscious lifestyles and sober or low-alcohol options is reshaping the market. This generation is driving demand for non-alcoholic and functional beverages that offer relaxation without the downsides of alcohol. These cultural shifts could erode the customer base for traditional alcoholic products, pressuring Rémy Cointreau to innovate and diversify to stay competitive. These trends represent a fundamental risk to the future growth of traditional alcoholic beverage companies.
Reasons to invest
There are also numerous reasons to invest in Rémy Cointreau. One reason is its focus on premiumization. Rémy Cointreau’s strategy is rooted in the ongoing consumer trend of "drinking less but better." Consumers increasingly favor high-quality spirits over quantity—a trend visible worldwide and particularly pronounced among younger demographics who prioritize quality, craftsmanship, and sustainability. Rémy Cointreau has committed to this value-focused approach by concentrating solely on premium and high-end spirits, having divested brands that didn't align with this strategy. This "upmarket" focus has been accelerated since 2015, with the goal of positioning Rémy Cointreau as a leader in exceptional spirits. High-end spirits categories, such as cognac, single malt whisky, and dark rum, have consistently outperformed the global spirits market over the past decade, growing at an average annual rate of 9,4% compared to 5,5% for the broader market. Rémy Cointreau’s brand portfolio, with an average value per case nearly four times that of the general spirits market, benefits from this premium positioning and drives significant value per unit. Selective price increases and a commitment to sustainable practices also enhance brand value and align with consumer demand for quality and responsibility. This premiumization strategy has proven financially effective, as evidenced by robust growth and expanding margins in recent years.
Digitalization is a strategic growth driver for Rémy Cointreau, enabling the company to strengthen customer engagement, expand e-commerce sales, and transition toward a customer-centric business model. By building a robust digital ecosystem, Rémy Cointreau aims to engage directly with customers, which is particularly valuable in an industry traditionally dominated by intermediaries. Through its digital factory, the company tailors digital strategies for each brand, ensuring they retain their unique character while better aligning with consumer expectations in different markets. A central component of this strategy is e-commerce, with a target of reaching 20% of total sales by 2030. This channel allows Rémy Cointreau to enhance the customer experience by offering convenience, personalized services, and a high-quality shopping experience. Direct sales through digital channels, as well as their own stores and network of “Private Client Directors,” enable Rémy Cointreau to foster personal connections with consumers, reinforcing brand loyalty and exclusivity. Moreover, by expanding digital capabilities, the company can provide education, personalized offerings, and tailored content to enhance each brand’s appeal. This approach not only improves customer retention but also leverages the fast-growing e-commerce market as a competitive edge, where Rémy Cointreau’s specialized team and relationships with key e-commerce players allow it to innovate effectively.
Emerging markets offer a compelling growth opportunity for Rémy Cointreau as the company seeks to expand its presence in regions with evolving consumer preferences and favorable demographic trends. In the Middle East, recent developments such as the reduction of sales tax in Dubai and Abu Dhabi and the anticipated opening of casinos in the region by 2026 are set to drive robust demand for luxury spirits in hotels, restaurants, and duty-free airport channels. Additionally, the gradual liberalization of markets like Saudi Arabia provides an untapped audience eager for premium offerings, making the Middle East an attractive frontier for Rémy Cointreau’s high-end portfolio. In India, while market entry remains challenging due to complex distribution channels and regulatory barriers, the country’s positive demographic fundamentals—including a growing middle class and increasing disposable incomes—signal high potential for luxury spirits. As young, affluent consumers in India develop a taste for premium products, Rémy Cointreau’s brand portfolio is well-positioned to capture this demand, though this expansion will take time to yield results.
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Valuation
Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators.
The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 3,62, which is from fiscal year 2024. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 11%. Finbox expects EPS to grow by 10,7% in the next five years. Additionally, I have selected a projected future P/E ratio of 22, which is twice the growth rate. This decision is based on Rémy Cointreau's historically higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Finally, our minimum acceptable rate of return has already been established at 15%. After performing the calculations, we determined the sticker price (also known as fair value or intrinsic value) to be €55,90. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy Rémy Cointreau at a price of €27,95 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.
The second calculation is known as the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that a company owner (or stockholder) receives on the purchase price of the company essentially represents its return on investment. The minimum annual return should be at least 10%, which I calculate as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 95, and capital expenditures were 81. I attempted to analyze their annual report to calculate the percentage of capital expenditures allocated to maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 57 in our calculations. The tax provision was 69. We have 50,89 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (95 – 57 + 69) / 50,89 x 10 = €21,03 in Ten Cap price.
The final calculation is called the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With Rémy Cointreau's Free Cash Flow Per Share at €1,84 and a growth rate of 11%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is €24,22.
Conclusion
I believe Rémy Cointreau is an intriguing company with a good management. However, the company has delivered a low ROIC below 10% in eight out of the past ten years. Free cash flow was also low in fiscal year 2024 but is expected to increase in fiscal year 2025. Competition poses a significant risk for Rémy Cointreau, as the spirits industry is crowded with brands and increasingly consolidating, giving larger competitors an advantage in scale and negotiating power. Macroeconomic factors also pose a risk, as inflation, high interest rates, and a shift toward value brands are cooling demand, especially in key markets like the U.S. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and foreign exchange fluctuations threaten profitability due to the company's global exposure and euro-based production costs. Emerging headwinds, such as the rise of GLP-1 drugs, increased cannabis use, and Gen Z's shift toward health-conscious, low- or non-alcoholic options, pose a risk to Rémy Cointreau by potentially reducing demand for traditional alcoholic products. Rémy Cointreau's focus on premiumization aligns with the global trend of "drinking less but better," as consumers increasingly prefer high-quality, sustainable spirits. By concentrating on high-end products like cognac and single malt whisky, which consistently outperform the broader market, Rémy Cointreau drives significant value per unit, fueling robust growth and expanding margins. Digitalization supports Rémy Cointreau's growth by enhancing direct customer engagement, expanding e-commerce sales, and fostering a customer-centric approach. Emerging markets present a strong growth opportunity, with regions like the Middle East and India showing increasing demand for luxury spirits due to favorable demographics and market liberalization. I believe there are many reasons to like Rémy Cointreau; however, due to its low ROIC and volatile free cash flow, I will need a 50% discount if investing in the company. Therefore, I will only buy shares below the Margin of Safety price of $28.
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