Throughout its 185-year history, Procter & Gamble has weathered numerous recessions, depressions, market crashes, wars, and other significant events since its founding in 1837. Despite these challenges, the company continues to thrive. Procter & Gamble is also known for its steady dividend, having paid one for over 130 consecutive years and increased it for more than 60 consecutive years. This track record makes Procter & Gamble a potential "sleep-well-at-night" stock. In this analysis, I will explore whether now is the right time to buy.
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Procter & Gamble, founded in Cincinnati, Ohio in 1837, provides branded consumer goods worldwide, with products available in over 170 countries. The company operates across five segments: Fabric & Home Care (36% of net sales), Baby, Feminine & Family Care (24%), Beauty (18%), Health Care (14%), and Grooming (8%). Its largest market is North America, accounting for 52% of net sales, followed by Europe (22%), Greater China (7%), Asia Pacific (7%), Latin America (7%), and India, Middle East & Africa (5%). Procter & Gamble is one of the largest companies in the world, consistently ranking as a top 20 holding in the S&P 500. With its global presence and extensive reach, it is a powerhouse in the consumer goods industry. Though some may not recognize Procter & Gamble by name, its brands are household staples. Pampers leads the baby diaper market, Ariel is a trusted laundry product, Bounty offers paper towels, Always and Tampax dominate feminine care, Gillette is the leading brand in razors and skincare, and Head & Shoulders is a global name in hair care. These products, used daily in categories where performance drives brand choice, have built high consumer confidence, giving Procter & Gamble a strong brand moat.
Jon R. Moeller is the CEO of Procter & Gamble, having joined the company in 1988 and becoming CEO in 2021. Before taking on this role, he held various positions, including Vice President and CFO. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Biology and a Master of Business Administration from Cornell University. Jon R. Moeller was chosen as CEO because of his significant contributions to Procter & Gamble’s growth and value creation strategies. In an interview with Goldman Sachs, he emphasized that his goal is not to simply take market share from competitors, but to grow the business by introducing innovative products that expand the market. As he put it: "When you can create new opportunities and create new sources of delight for consumers and clients, good things happen. When all you are doing is trying to punch your competitor in the nose, not so good things happen." Jon R. Moeller’s perspective on competition and growth is refreshing. Although he has been CEO for a short time, his results have been promising, as we will see later in this analysis. His extensive experience, early successes, and fresh approach make him the right person to lead Procter & Gamble moving forward.
I believe that Procter & Gamble has a strong brand moat. I like the management as well. Now, let us investigate the numbers to determine if Procter & Gamble meets our criteria for a strong moat. In case you want an explanation of what the numbers represent, you can refer to "MY STRATEGY" on the website.
The first number to investigate is the return on invested capital (ROIC). We look for a 10-year history with all figures exceeding 10%. Procter & Gamble has delivered a ROIC above 10% in eight out of the past ten years, and consistently since 2019. Encouragingly, some of its highest ROIC figures have been achieved in the past four years under Jon R. Moeller's leadership. Although ROIC decreased slightly in fiscal year 2024, falling below 20% for the first time since 2020, this period has been challenging for many companies, so it isn’t concerning. Overall, Procter & Gamble’s ROIC over the past decade is satisfactory. If the company continues to deliver the strong results of the past four years, it would be a promising sign for investors.
The following numbers represent the book value + dividend. In my previous format, this was referred to as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it in the future. As you are accustomed to seeing numbers in percentage form, I have decided to share both the actual numbers and the year-over-year percentage growth. It is interesting to note that Procter & Gamble’s equity peaked in 2015 and then steadily declined year over year until 2021. Several factors contributed to this. The company sold various brands, including 43 beauty brands to Coty in 2015 and Duracell to Berkshire Hathaway in 2016. Additionally, like many other companies, Procter & Gamble used low-cost debt to buy back shares, which also impacted equity. Encouragingly, since Jon R. Moeller became CEO, equity has grown over the past four years, signaling a positive trend.
Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins provide a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. Procter & Gamble has consistently generated strong free cash flow over the years. Notably, its free cash flow has been higher in the last five years than in previous periods, achieving a record high in fiscal year 2024, after two years of more modest performance. The levered free cash flow margin has remained stable, ranging between 15% and 21% in nine out of the past ten years. Impressively, Procter & Gamble delivered its third-highest levered free cash flow margin in fiscal 2024, despite macroeconomic challenges. It's also encouraging to see that the margin improved in 2024 compared to fiscal years 2022 and 2023. However, the free cash flow yield is below the ten-year average, indicating that the shares may be trading at a high valuation—a point we will revisit later in the analysis.
Another important aspect to consider is the level of debt. It's crucial to assess whether a business has manageable debt that can be repaid within a period of three years. By dividing Procter & Gamble's total long-term debt by its earnings, we find that the company has 1,73 years of earnings in debt. This is well within a manageable range, indicating that debt should not be a concern for investors considering Procter & Gamble.
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Based on my findings so far, Procter & Gamble is an intriguing company. However, no investment is without risk, and Procter & Gamble faces its own challenges. One significant risk is competition. The consumer products industry is highly competitive, with Procter & Gamble facing both global and local competitors across its categories. Maintaining sales and profit margins becomes difficult as competitors offer similar products, often at lower prices or with attractive incentives. Procter & Gamble must respond swiftly to factors such as pricing strategies, promotions, and shifting customer preferences, particularly with the rise of e-commerce and private-label brands. The company must consistently innovate in product quality, packaging, and retail execution to maintain its leadership position. Failure to do so could lead to lost market share and reduced profitability, making successful competition critical for Procter & Gamble in an increasingly crowded marketplace. Another risk is the potential loss of brand reputation. Procter & Gamble’s success is closely tied to consumer trust and loyalty, which are built on the perceived quality, safety, and efficacy of its products. Any damage to this reputation—whether through product recalls, defects, litigation, or concerns over environmental or social practices—could lead to reduced sales and weakened relationships with key stakeholders. The rise of social media increases the risk, as negative information can spread quickly, amplifying the potential damage. Public backlash over product ingredients, environmental impact, or social issues could further harm the company’s standing. If Procter & Gamble fails to manage these risks effectively, it may face lower revenues, increased litigation costs, and potential harm to long-term shareholder value. Macroeconomic risks for Procter & Gamble arise from its global operations, with over 50% of sales generated outside the U.S. This exposes the company to foreign currency fluctuations, which can reduce the U.S. dollar value of international sales and increase supply costs, affecting profitability. Additionally, macroeconomic disruptions—such as recessions, inflation, or tightening credit markets—can lower consumer demand, disrupt supply chains, and create financial hardships for customers and suppliers, leading to operational challenges. Geopolitical events, like trade wars, sanctions, or political instability (e.g., the Russia-Ukraine conflict), can further exacerbate these risks by imposing barriers such as tariffs or sanctions that hinder business. These factors may impact Procter & Gamble’s growth, financial performance, and ability to deliver on dividends or share repurchases, making macroeconomic conditions a key risk.
There are several reasons to consider investing in Procter & Gamble, with its focus on optimizing its product portfolio being a key factor. By concentrating on a streamlined selection of daily-use products that drive brand loyalty, Procter & Gamble has positioned itself for sustainable, broad-based growth across nearly all categories and geographies. Strategic divestitures, such as selling Vidal Sassoon and trimming its fabric care portfolio, allow the company to focus on areas that maximize consumer value and profitability. By cutting over 100 brands and reducing product categories from 16 to 10, Procter & Gamble has improved operational efficiency and enhanced return on equity. These targeted adjustments reflect a disciplined approach to long-term growth, making the company more agile and better positioned to adapt to market changes. Investing in superiority is a core strategy for Procter & Gamble, focusing on five key areas: product, packaging, brand communication, retail execution, and value. The company's approach centers on creating superior products that delight consumers, which helps grow both market share and the overall category size. By utilizing deep consumer insights and innovative technologies, Procter & Gamble ensures its brands outperform competitors, from premium offerings like Oral-B power toothbrushes to more affordable essentials like Luvs diapers. This focus on superiority is broad, extending across all product tiers and categories. By continuously improving its offerings and adapting to consumer needs, Procter & Gamble fosters new consumption patterns and attracts new users to its categories. During economic downturns, its focus on high-performing, value-driven products, such as dishwashing and paper goods, has helped the company thrive as consumers prioritize reliability. The company's ability to deliver value across all price points, combined with strong retailer partnerships, positions Procter & Gamble well for sustained growth. This commitment to innovation and quality strengthens customer loyalty and drives long-term success. Productivity improvement Procter & Gamble's focus on productivity improvement plays a key role in maintaining profitability, funding innovation, and driving growth, all while controlling costs and expanding margins. Rather than just cutting costs, the company optimizes its entire supply chain, marketing processes, and operations through digitization and automation. Initiatives like Supply Chain 3.0, which leverages data, machine learning, and automation, streamline logistics and reduce inefficiencies, such as truck idle time and labor costs. This strategy results in substantial savings, with Procter & Gamble targeting up to $1,5 billion in cost of goods sold savings, which can be reinvested into innovation and brand-building. The company's marketing productivity improvements have also been significant. Through more efficient ad placement and better targeting, Procter & Gamble has increased media reach by 14 points and improved advertising ROI by nearly 40% over five years. These productivity enhancements not only reduce operational costs but also strengthen Procter & Gamble’s ability to deliver superior products, improve retail execution, and ultimately increase shareholder value.
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Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators for free.
The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 6,02, which is from fiscal year 2024. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 7%. Management expects to achieve mid to high single digit EPS growth. Additionally, I have chosen a projected future P/E ratio of 14, which is twice the growth rate. This decision is based on the fact that Procter & Gamble has historically had a higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Lastly, our minimum acceptable rate of return is already set at 15%. Doing the calculations, we come up with the sticker price (some call it fair value or intrinsic value) of $40,98. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy Procter & Gamble at a price of $20,49 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.
The second calculation is called the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that an owner of a company (or stock) receives on the purchase price of the company is essentially its return on investment. The return should be at least 10% annually, and I calculate it as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 19.433 and capital expenditures were 3.273. I attempted to review their annual report to determine the percentage of capital expenditures allocated for maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 2.291 in our calculations. The tax provision was 3.787. We have 2.357,051 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (19.433 – 2.291 + 3.787) / 2.357,051 x 10 = $88,79 in Ten Cap price.
The final calculation is called the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With Procter & Gamble's Free Cash Flow Per Share at $7,00 and a growth rate of 7%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is $76,85.
I believe that Procter & Gamble is an intriguing company with the ability to thrive in any economic environment because it provides essential products to consumers. The company has a strong brand moat and good management. Procter & Gamble consistently delivers a high ROIC and recently achieved its highest free cash flow ever. However, competition poses a significant risk due to the highly competitive nature of the consumer products industry. Global and local rivals offer similar products, often at lower prices, which means P&G must continually innovate and adapt to changing customer preferences, especially with the rise of e-commerce. Failure to do so could result in a loss of market share and profitability, especially against private-label brands. The loss of brand reputation also represents a major risk. Procter & Gamble’s success hinges on consumer trust in the quality and safety of its products. Any damage to its reputation could quickly spread through social media, leading to long-term financial losses. Macroeconomic risks are another challenge for Procter & Gamble due to its vast global operations. Currency fluctuations, economic downturns, and geopolitical instability can reduce international sales, increase costs, disrupt supply chains, and affect the company’s ability to meet financial targets. On the positive side, Procter & Gamble’s focus on optimizing its product portfolio has streamlined its offerings to focus on high-performing, daily-use products that drive brand loyalty and profitability. Strategic divestitures and category reductions have improved operational efficiency, reduced costs, and positioned the company for sustainable, long-term growth. The company’s commitment to delivering superiority in product, packaging, communication, retail execution, and value helps it consistently outperform competitors, expand market share, and foster strong customer loyalty. This strategy is crucial to its long-term growth. Procter & Gamble’s focus on productivity improvement has also enhanced profitability while managing costs. By optimizing its supply chain, marketing, and operations through digitization and automation, the company achieves significant cost savings and reinvests in growth initiatives, ultimately increasing shareholder value. I believe Procter & Gamble has many strengths, and I plan to buy shares if they fall below the Ten Cap price of $88.
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