Hello Group: A positive turnaround story?

Hello Group is a Chinese mobile social networking company best known for its flagship apps Momo and Tantan, which combine dating, live streaming, and interactive social features. While much of its historical success has come from monetizing virtual gifts and premium services in China, the company is now increasingly leaning on international expansion, with platforms like Soulchill gaining traction in the Middle East and beyond. Despite pandemic-related setbacks and macroeconomic headwinds, Hello Group remains profitable, debt-free, and committed to innovation and operational efficiency. The question is: Can this social networking company regain its growth momentum and is it worth a closer look from investors?

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The Business

Hello Group., formerly Momo, is a leading technology company in China’s online social networking space. Founded in 2011 and based in Beijing, the company operates a portfolio of mobile apps designed to help users discover new relationships, engage in social interactions, and enjoy entertainment experiences. Its core platforms are Momo and Tantan. Momo is a location-based social app that supports live streaming, mobile karaoke, short videos, and online parties, while Tantan is widely recognized as the Chinese equivalent of Tinder, focusing on romantic connections through a swipe-and-match interface. Beyond its main platforms, Hello Group has developed or acquired several other apps including Hertz, Soulchill, Duidui, and Tietie, each targeting niche user segments or specific geographies. Soulchill, in particular, has gained popularity in the Middle East and North Africa, helping diversify the company’s user base and revenue streams. All of Hello Group’s apps are free to download and use. The company generates revenue primarily through live video services and value-added services. Live video services account for nearly half of total revenue and involve users sending virtual gifts to broadcasters during live sessions, with Hello Group sharing a portion of this income with the broadcasters or their talent agencies. Value-added services contribute the other half and include subscription packages and virtual gifting options that enhance the user experience across Momo and Tantan. The company also earns a small share of revenue from mobile marketing services such as banner ads, while mobile games and other services have been phased out or are no longer a strategic focus. Hello Group’s competitive moat lies in its brand strength and user loyalty, particularly through the Momo platform, which has a 12-year operating history and remains a consistent source of revenue. The long-standing recognition of Momo, along with the differentiated purpose and younger user demographic of Tantan, enables Hello Group to serve multiple user segments effectively. The company benefits from a content-driven engagement flywheel, where user-generated live content fuels greater engagement and monetization. Its ability to monetize interactions through a sophisticated virtual gifting and subscription infrastructure adds another layer of defensibility. Although the company experienced a decline in active and paying users in 2024 due to a strategic shift toward profitability and reduced marketing spend, it remains a market leader in China’s online dating and social entertainment sector.

Management

Yan Tang serves as the CEO of Hello Group, a role he resumed in 2022 after previously leading the company from its founding in 2011 through 2020. As a co-founder, he has played a pivotal role in shaping Hello Group into one of China’s leading online social platforms, best known for its flagship apps Momo and Tantan. His return to the CEO position followed the resignation of his successor, Li Wang, due to health reasons. Yan Tang holds a Bachelor of Science degree from Chengdu University of Technology. Prior to founding Hello Group, he worked as editor-in-chief at NetEase, one of China’s early internet giants. His deep understanding of digital media, product development, and user engagement laid the foundation for Momo’s early success and its evolution into a diversified social entertainment company. During his tenure, Hello Group went public on the Nasdaq in 2014 and later expanded its product portfolio through both internal incubation and strategic acquisitions. Yan Tang has been recognized by Forbes China as one of the country’s most powerful and influential business leaders under the age of 40. His leadership is widely regarded as shareholder-friendly, characterized by disciplined capital allocation, a focus on long-term profitability, and clear communication with investors. That said, one decision that has raised concerns is his appointment of his spouse, Sichuan Zhang, as Chief Operating Officer. While Sichuan Zhang may be qualified, such appointments can raise questions about corporate governance and perceived conflicts of interest, especially in markets where transparency is increasingly scrutinized. Despite limited public information about him compared to more Western-facing CEOs, Yan Tang has maintained a reputation for loyalty and integrity among Hello Group’s investor base. As both founder and CEO, he remains deeply aligned with the long-term interests of the company. His return to leadership at a time of strategic repositioning - focused on profitability, core product strength, and international expansion - suggests that he is committed to sustaining and rebuilding shareholder value in a competitive and evolving market. Given his operational experience and alignment as a founder, I am comfortable with Yan Tang continuing to lead Hello Group through its next phase.

The Numbers

The first number we will look into is the return on invested capital, also known as ROIC. We want to see a 10-year history, with all numbers exceeding 10% in each year. Hello Group achieved a high ROIC before the pandemic, with returns well above 10% in four out of the five years leading up to 2020. However, since the pandemic, the company has struggled to maintain respectable levels of ROIC, surpassing the 10% threshold only once. Several factors have contributed to this decline. The pandemic and the subsequent economic slowdown in China led to reduced user engagement across Hello Group’s platforms. This decline in activity directly impacted revenue generation. In an effort to improve profitability, the company also scaled back on marketing expenditures, particularly those with negative ROI. While this strategy helped margins in the short term, it weakened user acquisition and retention, ultimately reducing revenue. Operational challenges have also played a role. Tantan, for example, saw its monthly active users drop from 18,4 million in December 2022 to 10,8 million in December 2024. This was largely due to reduced investment in user acquisition channels and a lack of branding efforts. Additionally, Hello Group has been impacted by regulatory scrutiny and shifting consumer behaviors, which have forced changes in its revenue streams and operational strategies. Together, these factors - declining revenue, a smaller user base, and unfavorable macroeconomic conditions - led to a further deterioration in ROIC in 2024, bringing it to its lowest level since 2015.

The next numbers are the book value + dividend. In my old format this was known as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used to use in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it moving forward. As you are used to see the numbers in percentage, I have decided to share both the numbers and the percentage growth year over year. To put it simply, equity is the part of the company that belongs to its shareholders – like the portion of a house you truly own after paying off part of the mortgage. Growing equity over time means the company is becoming more valuable for its owners. So, when we track book value plus dividends, we’re essentially looking at how much value is being built for shareholders year after year. The company’s equity grew steadily each year up to 2020. This growth was mainly driven by strong profitability, with healthy earnings being retained in the business rather than distributed. As long as the company continued to generate solid profits, its equity base expanded accordingly. However, beginning in 2021, this trend reversed. Equity has declined every year since. The main reason is a drop in net income. Hello Group has faced multiple challenges over the past few years, including lower user engagement, a shrinking number of paying users, and difficulties in maintaining consistent revenue. With weaker profits, the company retained less of its earnings, slowing the growth of equity and eventually causing it to decline.

Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins provide a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. Hello Group has been free cash flow positive since 2015, which is encouraging. However, both its free cash flow and levered free cash flow margin have declined since the onset of the pandemic. The primary reason for this decline is lower net income. The company has faced a range of challenges, including reduced user engagement, a shrinking number of paying users, and difficulties maintaining stable revenue streams. These factors have weighed on profitability and, in turn, lowered the cash generated from operations. At the same time, Hello Group has continued to invest in research and development, technology infrastructure, and international expansion. While these initiatives are important for long-term growth, they increase capital expenditures in the short term, further reducing free cash flow. The combination of weaker revenues, higher operational costs, and ongoing investment activity has led to a decline in both free cash flow and its margin. That said, the company still generates positive free cash flow and continues to return a portion of it to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. While Hello Group does not have a regular dividend policy, it has paid a special dividend for seven consecutive years. More recently, the company has prioritized share repurchases, as its stock continues to trade significantly below its net cash value. Management believes that buybacks currently offer a better return for shareholders than a fixed dividend. Despite the decline in free cash flow margin, the free cash flow yield is at its second-highest level ever. At over 19%, it suggests that the shares are trading at a very attractive valuation.

Debt

Another important aspect to consider is the level of debt. It is crucial to determine whether a business has manageable debt that can be repaid within a three-year period. We calculate this by dividing the total long-term debt by earnings. After performing the calculation on Hello Group, I found that the company has no debt. Hence, debt is not a concern for Hello Group. In fact, the company is in very good financial shape. As of December 31, 2024, Hello Group had RMB 14,73 billion in cash and other easily accessible funds. That’s an increase from RMB 13,48 billion the year before. Not only does the company have no debt at all, but it’s also building up its cash reserves. This means Hello Group has a lot of financial flexibility. It can choose to invest in new opportunities, return money to shareholders, or handle any unexpected challenges.

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Risks

Competition is a risk for Hello Group. As a mobile social networking company operating in China’s fast-moving online entertainment and dating industry, Hello Group faces intense competition from both established platforms and new market entrants. Competitors often have more resources - whether in terms of cash, user traffic, technical talent, or brand partnerships - which allows them to innovate more rapidly, scale more effectively, and capture greater attention from users and advertisers. The challenge is amplified by the nature of the social and dating space, where switching costs for users are very low. Consumers can easily download and experiment with new apps, and there is a constant flow of new platforms offering fresh designs, features, or social experiences. This makes it difficult to retain users, especially younger ones, and puts pressure on Hello Group to continuously update and differentiate its offerings. Tantan, in particular, operates in a highly fragmented and competitive environment. Rivals may hold stronger positions in specific regions or among certain user groups. If these competitors launch features that are more appealing or adapt faster to market trends, Tantan risks losing engagement, relevance, and ultimately users. Moreover, Hello Group must compete not only on the product side but also in hiring and retaining top talent - engineers, designers, product managers, and live-streaming personalities - who are essential to maintaining innovation and platform quality. Larger or better-funded companies can often attract this talent more easily, weakening Hello Group's ability to scale or evolve its products. Because the market is relatively young and constantly evolving, there is no guarantee that current strategies will succeed in the future. Users, advertisers, and potential platform partners may not fully understand or appreciate Hello Group’s offerings, or may choose to invest time and money elsewhere. If Hello Group fails to effectively promote the value of its services or respond quickly to shifts in user preferences and technology, it could see a drop in user engagement and revenue.

Laws and regulations are a risk for Hello Group. As a company operating in China’s online social networking and live video industry, Hello Group is subject to a wide range of complex and constantly evolving regulations, especially around data privacy, cybersecurity, and content moderation. These laws are not only broad in scope but are also often subject to sudden changes, unclear enforcement standards, and overlapping responsibilities across different regulatory bodies. This creates a highly unpredictable business environment. One major area of risk is data regulation. Hello Group processes large volumes of user data, including personal information. In recent years, China has passed several new laws - such as the Cybersecurity Review Measures and the Data Security Regulations - that impose stricter rules on how companies collect, store, and use data. For example, companies that hold personal data from over one million users must undergo a cybersecurity review if their operations are deemed to impact national security. The problem is that many of these laws are still new and open to interpretation, so it’s unclear what specific actions may trigger government intervention or penalties. Any failure to comply with these laws could result in fines, app store removals, public criticism, or being forced to change how the business operates. This could seriously harm Hello Group’s reputation, reduce user trust, or disrupt key parts of its business. Content regulation is another area of concern. Hello Group’s platforms, especially Momo and Tantan, rely heavily on live streaming and user interaction. In recent years, Chinese regulators have introduced numerous rules to tighten control over online content and live broadcasts. These include requiring real-name registration for users and broadcasters, placing limits on how much users can spend on virtual gifts, and restricting content involving minors. Since Hello Group generates a large portion of its revenue from live streaming and virtual gifts, any policy that limits user spending or broadcaster behavior could directly hurt its earnings. What makes this even more difficult is the uncertainty. Regulators continue to release new rules without much warning or detailed guidance, making it hard for companies to plan or adapt in time. Moreover, the broader regulatory climate in China’s tech industry has shifted. The government has taken a more hands-on approach in recent years, pushing for tighter controls across areas like online behavior, youth protection, and financial transparency. This means Hello Group may face new restrictions not just on existing services but also on any future expansion plans.

Macroeconomics is a risk for Hello Group. As a business that depends heavily on consumer spending and digital engagement, Hello Group is directly exposed to the broader economic environment in China. When the economy slows down or consumers feel uncertain about their financial future, people naturally become more cautious with their discretionary spending and this directly impacts Hello Group’s business. A large portion of Hello Group’s revenue comes from live video services and value-added features, such as premium subscriptions and virtual gifts. These services rely on users, especially high-spending ones (often called "whales"), choosing to pay for extras like digital items, private interactions, and enhanced features. However, during times of economic stress - like the COVID-19 pandemic, the real estate slowdown, or prolonged weakness in consumer confidence - these users tend to cut back on non-essential spending. Many of Hello Group’s whales are business owners or professionals whose net worth was significantly impacted by the pandemic and the property sector downturn. As a result, their activity and spending on the platform have declined. Management has acknowledged that macroeconomic pressure is still weighing on user sentiment and that high-spending users remain cautious. This is particularly concerning for the live-streaming business, which has already seen revenue decline from RMB 6,5 billion in 2022 to RMB 5,1 billion in 2024. If economic uncertainty persists, these users may not return to their former spending levels, which limits the company’s ability to grow or even maintain revenue in this segment. Beyond individual user behavior, macroeconomic conditions also affect Hello Group at a systemic level. A weaker economy can lead to reduced advertising budgets, higher competition for paying users, and increased difficulty in monetizing platform features. Even though Hello Group’s value-added services - such as premium memberships - have held up better than live streaming, they are not immune to broader economic trends. If users remain under financial pressure or shift their digital habits toward free alternatives, Hello Group may struggle to convert casual users into paying customers or retain its existing subscriber base.

Reasons to invest

The Momo app is a key reason to invest in Hello Group. Despite a decline in total paying users, Momo remains a highly profitable and strategically important asset - a true cash cow for the business. While headline figures like user count and revenue have seen pressure in recent years, largely due to macroeconomic headwinds and deliberate product adjustments, the underlying fundamentals of the Momo platform remain strong. For over a decade, Momo has served as one of China’s most recognized social discovery platforms. It continues to be the go-to app for users looking to meet new people, form connections, and engage through voice chat, video streaming, and interactive features. While the overall number of paying users dropped to 5,7 million in 2024, this was largely due to the company’s intentional decision to stop acquiring low-value users - those who spent very little and often didn’t engage much. By shifting away from chasing volume and instead focusing on profitability, Hello Group has improved the long-term sustainability of Momo’s monetization model. Importantly, the core user base remains healthy. The company has retained a stable group of mid-tier spenders - referred to as "dolphins" - who consistently engage with the platform and make up the backbone of revenue. Even some former high-spending users, or “whales,” have transitioned into this tier, helping cushion the impact of broader economic softness. At the same time, the company has taken proactive steps to keep Momo’s ecosystem vibrant. Product teams have introduced AI-enhanced features to improve user interactions, particularly helping male users craft better messages to improve connection rates with female users. These innovations support engagement, which is critical to maintaining monetization through virtual gifting and value-added services. Operationally, Hello Group has streamlined marketing spend and shifted user acquisition strategies toward more cost-efficient channels, such as collaborations with short video influencers on platforms like Douyin. This helped reduce user acquisition costs while maintaining stable traffic. It reflects a shift toward smarter, ROI-driven growth rather than relying on expensive user growth at any cost.

International growth is a compelling reason to invest in Hello Group. While much of the company’s historical success has come from domestic platforms like Momo and Tantan, its overseas expansion, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa region, has become a powerful new growth engine. The clearest example is Soulchill, a voice and chat-based social platform tailored for international users. In 2024, Soulchill’s revenue grew by 50 percent compared to the previous year, reaching nearly RMB 1 billion and surpassing the earnings from Tantan. This growth was driven by targeted localization efforts, such as adapting virtual gifting and interactive features to local preferences, as well as thoughtful investments in marketing and operational efficiency. Soulchill has gained strong traction in markets like Turkey, Egypt, and across the Gulf region, where demand for audio-based social experiences remains high. Encouraged by Soulchill’s success, Hello Group launched two additional international apps in late 2023: Yaahlan and AMER. Both are voice-focused social platforms that entered the monetization phase in 2024. Early results are promising, with both apps reaching meaningful revenue scale and maintaining a stable return on investment despite increased marketing spend. In 2025, the company plans to further increase investment in these two apps with the goal of scaling them to Soulchill’s current size. If achieved, this would make international operations a significant part of Hello Group’s overall revenue as early as 2026. While profitability is not the immediate goal for these new ventures, the company is taking a disciplined approach with a strong focus on return on investment. By maintaining a high level of marketing efficiency and emphasizing monetization through value-added services, Hello Group is positioning its international business to become a long-term profit center. Management also sees strong potential to replicate the Soulchill model in other regions, using a combination of local engagement, product customization, and scalable monetization. The international strategy also provides Hello Group with diversification benefits. As growth in China slows and regulatory pressures increase, expanding into new regions allows the company to reduce reliance on its domestic user base and manage macro and policy-related risks more effectively.

Tantan’s ongoing turnaround is an important reason to consider investing in Hello Group, even though the app is currently experiencing declines in revenue and user numbers. The story here is not about rapid growth in the short term, but about a clear strategic shift aimed at building a more sustainable and profitable business over time. In 2024, Hello Group prioritized product improvements to enhance the core dating experience on Tantan. The team focused on addressing common user frustrations, such as unclear identity verification and poor match engagement. While these changes led to a better product, they have not yet translated into meaningful improvements in user retention or organic growth. At the same time, the company deliberately reduced spending on acquiring low-value users who typically do not generate a positive return, resulting in a smaller but more profitable user base. This strategy reflects a key pivot. In the past, Tantan emphasized boosting revenue through aggressive monetization and growing average revenue per paying user. However, this often came at the expense of user satisfaction and long-term retention. In 2025, the company is shifting its focus toward lowering customer acquisition costs and improving the overall ROI of its marketing spend. Management is now willing to sacrifice some scale in the short term in order to create a healthier business model. This approach has already shown benefits. After two years of cost controls and operational improvements, Tantan reached breakeven. It has also shown progress in improving monetization efficiency. Even though the number of paying users declined in 2024, average revenue per paying user continued to grow, especially through premium offerings like SVIP and Black Gold. Importantly, management still sees Tantan as having the best chance to dominate the online dating market in China. They believe demand remains strong and underserved, and their product enhancements are aligned with that long-term opportunity. There is also cautious exploration of expanding Tantan internationally.

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Valuation

Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators for free

The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 0,76, which is from the year 2024. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 14%. Finbox expects EPS to grow by 14,5% over the next five years. Additionally, I have selected a projected future P/E ratio of 28, which is twice the growth rate. This decision is based on Hello Group's historically higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Finally, our minimum acceptable rate of return has already been established at 15%. After performing the calculations, we determined the sticker price (also known as fair value or intrinsic value) to be $19,50. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy Hello Group at a price of $9,75 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.

The second calculation is known as the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that a company owner (or stockholder) receives on the purchase price of the company essentially represents its return on investment. The minimum annual return should be at least 10%, which I calculate as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 225, and capital expenditures were 39. I attempted to analyze their annual report to calculate the percentage of capital expenditures allocated to maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 27 in our calculations. The tax provision was 116. We have 172,1 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (225 – 27 + 116) / 172,1 x 10 = $18,25 in Ten Cap price.

The final calculation is called the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With Hello Group's Free Cash Flow Per Share at $1,08 and a growth rate of 14%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is $16,29.

Conclusion

I believe Hello Group is an intriguing company with capable management that has been significantly affected by the pandemic. The company has built a moat through brand strength and user loyalty. Its return on invested capital can be viewed in two phases: high pre-pandemic levels and much weaker post-pandemic performance, reaching a new low in 2024. Free cash flow has also declined since the pandemic, but the company remains free cash flow positive, which is encouraging. It continues to use this cash to reward shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Additionally, Hello Group has no debt and has been steadily growing its cash balance. Competition is a key risk because the company operates in a fast-changing industry with low switching costs and intense pressure from better-funded rivals. It must continuously innovate to retain users and talent but risks falling behind if competitors move faster or offer more compelling features. Laws and regulations are another major concern. China’s increasingly strict and unpredictable policies around data privacy, cybersecurity, and online content create ongoing uncertainty. These evolving rules could lead to fines, service disruptions, or restrictions on core revenue sources like live streaming and virtual gifting. Macroeconomic conditions also present challenges. Hello Group relies on discretionary consumer spending, particularly from high-paying users who tend to reduce spending during downturns. Prolonged weakness in consumer confidence, such as that caused by the pandemic or China’s real estate crisis, has already impacted live-streaming revenue and may continue to weigh on growth. The Momo app is a reason to consider investing. Despite a decline in paying users, it remains a highly profitable core asset with a stable base of engaged mid-tier spenders. By focusing on profitability over scale, rolling out product innovations, and optimizing marketing, Hello Group has reinforced Momo’s role as a dependable cash generator. International growth is another promising area. Hello Group is scaling rapidly in the Middle East and North Africa, led by Soulchill and new apps like Yaahlan and AMER. Through localized content, ROI-driven marketing, and replicating proven models, the company is building a diversified revenue base beyond China. Tantan’s ongoing turnaround is also encouraging. Hello Group is shifting away from short-term growth targets toward building a sustainable, profitable dating platform. After reaching breakeven, the team is now focused on improving user experience and marketing efficiency, which could support long-term success in what remains an underserved dating market in China. There are many things to like about Hello Group, and the shares are trading at an attractive valuation. However, I would like to see the company reverse its decline and return to growth before considering an investment. For now, I will not invest in Hello Group.

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