I prefer companies that have the highest profit margins in their sector, as it indicates that the company has a significant competitive advantage and could potentially be compounders in the long term. One such company is Constellation Brands, which has consistently achieved higher operating margins in its beer segment compared to its competitors. In this analysis, I will explore the potential for Constellation Brands to be a valuable addition to your portfolio and determine the appropriate price for investment.
This is not a financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and I only do these posts in order to do my own analysis and elaborate about my decisions, especially for my copiers and followers. If you consider investing in any of the ideas I present, you should do your own research or contact a professional financial advisor, as all investing comes with a risk of losing money. You are also more than welcome to copy me.
For full disclosure, I should mention that at the time of writing this analysis, I do not own any shares in Constellation Brands. If you would like to copy my portfolio or view the stocks in my portfolio, you can find instructions on how to do so here. I don't own shares in any of their direct competitors either. Thus, I have no personal interest in Constellation Brands. If you want to purchase shares (or fractional shares) of Constellation Brands, you can do so through eToro. eToro is a highly user-friendly platform that allows you to get started on investing with as little as $100.
The Business
Constellation Brands was founded in 1945 in New York, United States. It is an international producer and marketer of beer, wine, and spirits, with operations across the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. As the third-largest beer company in the United States, Constellation Brands is also the largest seller and brewer of imported beer in the U.S. market. While Constellation Brands may not be a household name, its beer portfolio includes widely recognized brands such as Corona, Modelo, and Pacifico. In fact, Constellation Brands owns nine out of the top 15 best-selling imported beer brands in the United States. In the wine segment, Constellation Brands owns prominent labels such as Meiomi and Kim Crawford, which are among the top 100 best-selling high-end wine brands in the U.S. The spirits portfolio includes brands like SVEDKA vodka and MI CAMPO tequila. According to the CEO, the brand loyalty within the company's portfolio is strong, underscoring the competitive advantage that Constellation Brands enjoys. These well-known brands give the company a strong brand moat. In fiscal year 2024, the beer segment contributed approximately 82% of the company’s net sales, with wine making up 16% and spirits about 2%. Additionally, Constellation Brands holds a 35,7% stake in the Canadian cannabis company, Canopy Growth Corporation, after converting common shares into exchangeable shares in 2022, reflecting a strategic restructuring within Canopy Growth Corporation.
Management
Their CEO, Bill Newlands, joined Constellation Brands in 2015 and became the CEO in 2017. Before joining Constellation Brands, he held leadership roles at various companies in the wine and spirits industry, including serving as President of North America at Beam, Inc., where he helped drive the company to become one of the fastest-growing in its category. Bill Newlands holds a Bachelor of Science from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and an MBA from Harvard Business School. He also serves on the boards of Hormel Foods and the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States. As CEO, Bill Newlands has strategically focused on consolidating Constellation Brands' portfolio around high-end, premium brands, aligning with the broader consumer trend toward premiumization. This strategic focus is expected to drive stronger growth and higher profit margins for the company, a move that has garnered positive reception from investors and industry analysts. While there isn’t much publicly available information on his management style, Bill Newlands boasts a 93% approval rating on Glassdoor, which indicates that he is well-regarded by employees. Given his vast experience in the sector and his focus on high-growth, high-margin products, I feel confident in Bill Newlands' ability to lead Constellation Brands effectively moving forward.
The Numbers
The first metric to examine is the return on invested capital, or ROIC. Ideally, I look for companies that consistently achieve a ROIC above 10% across all years. In the case of Constellation Brands, the ROIC has been somewhat underwhelming, with the company only surpassing the 10% threshold in three out of the last ten years. Additionally, there were three years where the ROIC was negative, which is certainly not a positive indicator. This was a bit surprising given the company's brand strength, as high-moat businesses often generate higher ROIC. However, the company's significant debt levels have weighed heavily on its ROIC performance, explaining the relatively low or negative numbers. While ROIC isn't the sole determining factor when evaluating an investment, and a lower or negative ROIC doesn't necessarily disqualify a company, I do find these figures concerning. That said, it is encouraging to see that Constellation Brands improved its ROIC significantly in fiscal year 2024, and hopefully, this upward trend will continue in the coming years.
The following numbers represent the sum of the book value + dividend. In my previous format, this was referred to as the equity growth rate. It was the most important of the four growth rates I used in my analyses, which is why I will continue to use it in the future. As you are accustomed to seeing numbers in percentage form, I have decided to provide both the actual numbers and the percentage growth year over year. Constellation Brands demonstrated consistent equity growth until 2019, with a steady upward trajectory. However, fiscal year 2020 marked a significant shift as the pandemic introduced a range of challenges. The company faced not only pandemic-related disruptions but also rising input costs in fiscal 2022 and 2023, which contributed to a decline in equity during those years. Furthermore, Constellation Brands made strategic decisions to divest some of its mainstream and premium wine brands in fiscal 2023, leading to an additional reduction in equity. Despite these setbacks, it's encouraging to see that the company returned to equity growth in fiscal 2024. This reversal signals a potential recovery, and hopefully, the trend will continue as Constellation Brands moves forward.
Finally, we will analyze the free cash flow. Free cash flow, in short, refers to the cash that a company generates after covering its operating expenses and capital expenditures. I use levered free cash flow margin because I believe that margins provide a better understanding of the numbers. Free cash flow yield refers to the amount of free cash flow per share that a company is expected to generate in relation to its market value per share. Constellation Brands has consistently delivered positive free cash flow every year for the past decade, which is not surprising given its strong brand portfolio and market presence. The company's highest free cash flow was achieved in fiscal year 2021. However, fiscal years 2022 and 2023 were impacted by rising input costs, which negatively affected both free cash flow and the levered free cash flow margin. In fiscal year 2024, Constellation Brands reported its lowest free cash flow since fiscal year 2019 due to a 23% increase in capital expenditures, driven by the expansion of existing facilities and the ongoing construction of their new brewery in Veracruz. This capital investment will continue to impact free cash flow in the upcoming years, as management has indicated that it will affect free cash flow until fiscal year 2028. However, the company expects a significant improvement in free cash flow, projecting a cumulative free cash flow of between $7 billion to $9 billion from fiscal year 2026 to fiscal 2028. This suggests that free cash flow and the levered free cash flow margin should improve starting from fiscal year 2026. Currently, the free cash flow yield is around the ten-year average, but it is the lowest since fiscal year 2018, indicating that the shares may be trading at a premium. This is something we will revisit later in the analysis.
Debt
Another important aspect to consider is the level of debt, and it is crucial to determine whether a business has manageable debt that can be repaid within a 3-year period. This can be assessed by calculating the ratio of long-term debt to earnings. After performing the calculation on Constellation Brands, it is evident that the company has a debt-to-earnings ratio of 6,18 years, which exceeds the 3-year limit. While management has expressed their commitment to reducing debt, which is a positive sign, the current high level of debt is something that warrants close monitoring for anyone considering investing in Constellation Brands.
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Risks
Like every other investment, there are risks associated with investing in Constellation Brands. One significant risk is competition. Constellation Brands operates in a highly fragmented beverage alcohol industry, competing against global giants like Anheuser-Busch, Heineken, and Diageo, as well as regional and craft producers. Many of these competitors have larger resources for marketing, innovation, and distribution, putting pressure on Constellation Brands' premium offerings, particularly in price-sensitive markets. The company must navigate the challenge of maintaining competitive pricing, securing distribution, and competing for retail shelf space, which can be more difficult against larger global players with more extensive networks. Moreover, shifting consumer preferences toward emerging categories like ready-to-drink cocktails, hard seltzers, and cannabis-infused beverages introduce new competition, including from non-alcoholic beverage giants like Coca-Cola and Pepsi, which have entered these spaces. Additionally, Constellation Brands must stay ahead in industry innovation, particularly as consumer demand grows for health-conscious, sustainable, and environmentally-friendly products. The rising popularity of local and craft brands also presents a challenge, as more consumers gravitate toward small-batch, artisanal offerings.
Another risk for Constellation Brands is raw material and supply chain disruptions. The company heavily relies on the availability and cost of critical raw materials, particularly water, agricultural inputs, and packaging materials like glass, aluminum, and cardboard. Water is not only essential for its operations but also for its suppliers. However, climate change, droughts, and regional water restrictions pose significant threats, especially in regions like California and Mexico, where prolonged droughts and water shortages are common. Water scarcity or poor quality could severely impact production capabilities, increasing costs and potentially leading to capacity constraints and reduced supply for key ingredients such as grapes, corn, barley, and hops. Beyond water risks, Constellation Brands' dependency on agricultural raw materials and packaging materials adds another layer of vulnerability. Supply chain disruptions caused by inflation, geopolitical events, natural disasters, or market shifts could lead to shortages or increased costs for these materials. The company’s reliance on a limited number of suppliers, particularly for key materials like glass bottles and aluminum cans, amplifies this risk. Any significant disruption in the supply of these materials, especially glass bottles critical for its Mexican beer brands like Corona and Modelo, could lead to production delays, inventory shortages, and higher operational costs.
Emerging headwinds pose significant risks for Constellation Brands, particularly with the rise of GLP-1 drugs and changing alcohol consumption trends among younger generations. GLP-1 receptor agonists, originally developed for treating diabetes and weight loss, are now showing potential to reduce alcohol cravings by targeting areas of the brain involved in addictive behaviors. As the adoption of these drugs grows, there is a potential decline in alcohol consumption among users, directly threatening the sales of companies like Constellation Brands, which rely heavily on alcohol revenue. Additionally, Gen Z’s evolving preferences are reshaping the alcohol market, as this generation drinks less alcohol than previous ones. A greater focus on health consciousness and the preference for sober or low-alcohol lifestyles are driving demand for non-alcoholic or functional beverages that offer health benefits without the downsides of alcohol consumption. These trends could reduce the demand for Constellation Brands' traditional beer, wine, and spirits products, forcing the company to innovate and diversify its offerings.
Reasons to invest
Constellation Brands' beer segment is a compelling reason to invest in the company, as it has been a major driver of its fiscal 2024 performance. This success was highlighted by Modelo Especial becoming the top-selling beer in the U.S. by dollar sales, leading to the company’s largest-ever market share gain in the U.S. beer industry, capturing nearly 70% of total dollar growth. The beer portfolio's strength is further underscored by the impressive growth of iconic brands like Modelo Especial, Corona Extra, and Pacifico, all of which saw increases in both volume and market share. In addition to these established brands, Constellation Brands has also capitalized on consumer trends through innovations like Modelo Chelada, which experienced a 30% increase in sales by catering to the growing demand for flavored beers. Investments in expanding its brewing capacity in Mexico position the company to meet this rising demand, and its ability to secure additional shelf space across retail channels further strengthens its market presence. With expectations of continued growth in net sales and operating margins driven by strong demand and strategic innovations, Constellation Brands' beer business is poised to remain a major contributor to the company’s long-term success.
Constellation Brands' strategic focus on premiumization is a compelling reason to invest in the company. Premiumization, where consumers increasingly favor higher-quality, higher-priced products, has significantly enhanced Constellation Brands' performance across its beer, wine, and spirits segments. The success of Modelo Oro, which quickly became a top-five share gainer, underscores the strength of this trend, as consumers continue to gravitate toward premium offerings. Higher-end brands within Constellation Brands' portfolio not only experience faster growth but also deliver higher profit margins than lower-tier brands. By prioritizing the expansion of its premium product lines, the company is effectively capturing this demand while improving profitability. This focus on premiumization allows Constellation Brands to align with evolving consumer preferences, positioning it for sustained long-term growth and making it a strong investment opportunity.
Constellation Brands' strategy of acquisitions and divestitures plays a critical role in shaping its portfolio and aligning with evolving consumer trends, making it a key reason to invest in the company. Acquisitions, often targeting high-growth or premium segments, allow Constellation Brands to strengthen its position in trends like premiumization and health-conscious products. For example, the acquisition of luxury wine brands such as Domaine Curry and Lingua Franca enhances its presence in the high-end wine market, while ventures into the non-alcoholic space align with shifting consumer preferences. At the same time, divestitures of non-core or lower-end brands, such as its craft beer and mainstream wine businesses, reflect Constellation Brands' focus on optimizing its portfolio for higher-margin opportunities. These strategic moves not only improve profitability by concentrating on premium and growth-oriented brands but also position the company to capture more market share in faster-growing segments. This active portfolio management, through selective acquisitions and divestitures, supports Constellation Brands' long-term growth prospects and enhances its appeal as an investment.
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Valuation
Now it is time to calculate the share price. I perform three different calculations that I learned at a Phil Town seminar. If you want to make the calculations yourself for this or other stocks, you can do so through the tools page on my website, where you have access to all three calculators.
The first is called the Margin of Safety price, which is calculated based on earnings per share (EPS), estimated future EPS growth, and estimated future price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). The minimum acceptable rate of return is 15%. I chose to use an EPS of 9,39 which is from fiscal 2024. I have selected a projected future EPS growth rate of 11%. (management expects low low-double-digit EPS growth). Additionally, I have chosen a projected future P/E ratio of 22, which is twice the growth rate. This decision is based on the fact that Constellation Brands has historically had a higher P/E ratio. Lastly, our minimum acceptable rate of return is already set at 15%. Doing the calculations, we come up with the sticker price (some call it fair value or intrinsic value) of $144,99. We want to have a margin of safety of 50%, so we will divide it by 2. This means that we want to buy Constellation Brands at a price of $72,50 (or lower, obviously) if we use the Margin of Safety price.
The second calculation is called the Ten Cap price. The rate of return that an owner of a company (or stock) receives on the purchase price of the company is essentially its return on investment. The return should be at least 10% annually, and I calculate it as follows: The operating cash flow last year was 2.780 and capital expenditures were 1.269. I attempted to review their annual report to determine the percentage of capital expenditures allocated for maintenance. I couldn't find it, but as a rule of thumb, you can expect that 70% of the capital expenditures will be allocated to maintenance purposes. This means that we will use 888 in our calculations. The tax provision was 393. We have 182,4 outstanding shares. Hence, the calculation will be as follows: (2.780 – 888 + 393) / 182,4 x 10 = $125,27 in Ten Cap price.
The final calculation is called the Payback Time price. It is a calculation based on the free cash flow per share. With Constellation Brands' Free Cash Flow Per Share at $8,27 and a growth rate of 11%, if you want to recoup your investment in 8 years, the Payback Time price is $108,87.
Conclusion
Constellation Brands is an interesting company. They have managed to achieve the highest profit margins in the sector, which is always intriguing. While there is limited information on management, I appreciate their accomplishments and extensive experience in the sector. Constellation Brands has delivered an underwhelming ROIC over the past ten years, and its free cash flow has decreased due to higher capital expenditures. Additionally, Constellation Brands has a high debt level that will need to be carefully monitored. Competition is a risk for Constellation Brands, as it faces pressure from global giants like Anheuser-Busch and craft producers with stronger resources. Emerging categories, such as ready-to-drink cocktails and shifting consumer preferences toward craft brands, also threaten its market share. Raw material and supply chain disruptions pose another risk due to the company's reliance on essential resources like water, agricultural inputs, and packaging materials. Water scarcity and supply chain issues, particularly for key materials like glass bottles and aluminum cans, could lead to production delays, increased costs, and capacity constraints. Emerging headwinds, such as the growing use of GLP-1 drugs that may reduce alcohol consumption by diminishing cravings, and Gen Z’s preference for non-alcoholic, health-conscious beverages, could further erode demand for traditional alcohol products. Constellation Brands' beer segment is a key driver, with strong growth in fiscal 2024, led by Modelo Especial, which became the top-selling beer in the U.S. The continued expansion of the portfolio, innovations like Modelo Chelada, and investments in brewing capacity position the beer business for long-term success. The company's focus on premiumization is also a key driver, as consumers increasingly opt for higher-quality, higher-priced products. Premium brands like Modelo Oro are growing faster and delivering higher profit margins, positioning the company to capture demand and enhance long-term profitability. Constellation Brands' strategy of acquisitions and divestitures helps align its portfolio with consumer trends. By acquiring high-growth brands and divesting lower-margin businesses, the company optimizes its portfolio for profitability and captures market share in faster-growing segments. Nonetheless, I will not be investing in Constellation Brands at this time due to the low ROIC and high debt.
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